Maybe, maybe not, I honestly dont know. I think that is a strong assumption too. We just simply dont know.
In the meantime I think we have to acknowledge that, unless they go subscription based or cash for in game credits, FDEV need a way to maintain units sold to keep the product supported at all in the long term. Their chosen model so far is a mix of vanity micro-transactions and paid expansions. So they can not just park those, I am afraid, unless they find another revenue model. Their compromise to work on the base game AND in expansions at the same time is probably the only way to go in the current model.
Success or failure in that course of action (in terms of units sold) will come down to good old quality of delivery and execution (as it has always been the case... in any business) in both aspects, but either way I dont think we can assume anything yet.
I agree that staying away from subs is a good thing, every single game that I've played that had a sub, has ALWAYS and I mean ALWAYS reverted at some point to feeling like it's a second job that I must contribute to because I'm paying for it. That feeling decreases the fun factor by many orders of magnitude.
It's also true that that feeling comes sooner and sooner each game I play that I have to sub to, and I know I'm not the only one who suffers from this, if online chats with fellow players are anything to go by - and I've been involved with MMO's since Anarchy Online so that's 15 years. World of Warcraft had me for seven years, almost non stop (Panda's...Why did it have to be Panda's?) - and managed to wrest control of my money and playtime from Everquest and a host of great offline games waiting in the wings too (Baldurs Gate, several of the FF series of games in various states of playthrough). However the last game I subbed (where subbing was the only option) "Rift" (before it went F2P) was 3 months from "ooooooooh shiney!" to... "hmmm, do my laundry or play Rift? - lets go do laundry." And that game was already 2 years old with a good expansion and content.
The gaming market and community has evolved, significantly, over the years from wide eyed appreciative players who'll take bugs in their stride and roll with it, to a much more sophisticated, informed and more importantly
judgemental player base who know that if your game isn't delivering what they are after, there's 50 more on the shelves that will.
The fact that Elite Dangerous has this amazing backstory and history is irrelevant to many / most and a spacesim is a spacesim is a spacesim. There's nothing extra super amazing about E: D that isn't to be found elsewhere to greater or lesser degrees.
The history of this franchise, being the father of all spacesims with it's glorious and rich history of introducing groundbreaking gaming experiences,
and developed by the Grandfather (Sorry David) of spacesims is in reality, largely irrelevant.
So in the end E: D's success will depend solely on the content - same as for all other games; how it's implemented and how it's fixed / tweaked.
I am one of the 11 and still a keeper of the faith - which is why I'm so hard on FDev when they f..K it up - but I KNOW GAMING and Gamers - I cannot stress this highly enough; I've spent more time gaming since 1984 than I have working, and that's saying something. I've seen the games, the trends, the ebbs and flows, the successes of a great game launch, the most anticipated franchises
that delivered the goods and many of those that didn't (Yes YOU Derek Smart - I can say I was there in the flamewar from armageddon) and the utter disasters (DaiKatana - OUCH!! Shame on you John Romero). I could in all honesty probably be a pretty good gaming critic with the history I've seen
and played.
I've had personal contacts in guilds / groups forums and players that were guildmates (corps / clans / whatever name they use) who became RL friends that number in the THOUSANDS,
THOUSANDS and my prognosis, based on all that knowledge and player interactions is that E: D, for now, is limping and losing blood.
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many of the current crop have already said,,,unless they adequately furnish us with a more functional game they wont be buying anything from FD,,,,half my guild is waiting not playing to see what happens in next months.
can FD deliver finally what they ignored in beta testing?
^^ This. This is what I'm talking about and why I'm doing the same (read my sig)