The new commoditiy system is screwed.

[CMDR Serra]

You can still do that with other minerals, so your point is empty. Do you realize that, right ?

Two Points:

1. I'm glad that some of these commodities are taking the nerf bat.

2. It's silly that from a starter mining sidey you can mine 4 units of something valuable and basically invalidate the cheapest 10 ships.

Who urinated on your breakfast cereal this morning?

 

[Ian Doncaster]

When is the tick though? That's the crucial bit of information.

Currently at about 2pm. It drifts about a bit, but Frontier like to keep it within their normal working day so that they can fix it if it goes wrong. (If it breaks at the weekend, though, tough luck)

The tick isn't necessarily that crucial, though - major price changes driven by updates to the political simulation come through at the tick, but more continuous changes happen all day due to player sales and purchases.

Also, EDDB only gets an update for about half the systems each day, and about 15% of systems are updated less than once a week on it. This means that a significant fraction of the good prices might never show up on EDDB or Inara at all, and are therefore possible to discover even near the end of a tick ... and as these are likely to be in quieter systems, they probably also have much better demand levels on the continuous change updates.

Finally, all political states are ultimately caused by player activity, so a really capable group could quietly set up and exploit top prices in a system that isn't sent to EDDB, get the big money, and no-one else would even notice they did it.

 

[Jmanis]

Rubbish my axx, you have no clue dude, was near 1,1 millions, funny how you round down , and by average I mean you could pick DOZENS of stations to sell with near 800k, and if you just waited a couple of days you easily could find near 1 million. Your argument here have no value, fact is now you cannot find prices over 493k, and even those are a lottery, because you can hit the lowest at 160k... fact is the promised 600k The HIGHEST price never show up , a detail you need to open your eyes before arguing.
The nerf was not 40% but between 60-75%, the date on INARA since the update are the clear proof.

And you talk about EDDB ?! lol, look again - max price is listed 355k RIGHT NOW, almost HALF from the one trumpeted by devs !

Oh princess, you're adorable! No point me trying to argue with someone making up their own definition of average, you win!

 

[SENA-]

Oh princess, you're adorable! No point me trying to argue with someone making up their own definition of average, you win!

Is more adorable your way to turn a blind eye at the max price, lol; I give you that, you know how to avoid a subject where you have no arguments

 

[BL1P]

Bad news for you, then: it won't recover at the tick either...

There are two issues working to keep the demand low:
1) Demand can be negative if a station is over-sold to. It shows as zero on the market display in that case, but could actually be -300
Here's the graph from a little market experiment earlier - you can see the demand sticks at zero for a while, in one case about 12 hours - before starting to creep back up, as the team piled in considerably more Pesticides than were immediately needed. Demand recovers continuously and isn't tied to the tick.

History of Pesticides at Vitto Orbital

cdb.sotl.org.uk

2) The more expensive a good is, the slower its demand regenerates ... on average, anyway. There's not been enough time to measure how the new Painite regenerates demand ... but before it got an infinite regeneration bug in the 3.7 release, it took multiple months [1] to regenerate from empty to full, so it's probably similar now ... and some of these stations will be super-empty and therefore take longer. If someone's piled in a few thousand tonnes when it was already at demand zero, it might be months before it recovers to 1t.

One station near me which doesn't get enough Painite sales to be permanently stuck to zero seems to be regenerating about a tonne a day - it went up from 806t to 807t just a couple of hours ago, having sat at 806t since a big sale about 24 hours ago. It's probably not that slow across the board - previously, before the demand bug, this station regenerated Painite demand considerably slower than a lot of other nearby stations - but I wouldn't hang around either.

So what you get is a very complex combination of factors affecting the price

• the combination of BGS states sets a baseline price
• how much demand is left modifies that price, potentially significantly, and that's all down to the activity of many thousands of players mining

A smart or lucky player can get a really good price by finding a top BGS combination before anyone else does ... but equally, a top BGS combination that's been oversold to is likely to be outdone by a much more common BGS combination that's merely "good", and someone skipping around dropping off a couple of hundred tonnes each at tens of those might make more money in the long run. Equally, switching between Painite, Platinium, Osmium, LTDs and core Gems as fashions fluctuate ... and hoping that everyone else just mines Painite because FamousYoutuber said "mine Painite for big money" six months ago ... could give much higher profits.


[1] The exact speed is station-specific, but it'll be slow regardless.


All commodities behave like this - except that before this week's changes, there was a bug meaning that Painite and some core gems didn't - their demand regenerated infinitely fast. This has now been fixed.

Most commodities, however, regenerate sufficiently fast and are traded sufficiently infrequently in any one place, that it's very rare for them to spend much time below the cap on total positive demand, and so this effect isn't really noticed. Even something moderately popular and fairly slow to regenerate like Performance Enhancers spends most of its time at the cap at most stations

History of Performance Enhancers at Dove Enigma

cdb.sotl.org.uk

I wont clip the words of the Almighty, as it is against the doctrines of CID (Cultists of Ian Doncaster).
I will however offer up a prayer using a Quoteth of his words :-

Ohhh wondrous one hear my plea, you commanded in your latest teachings :-
"This has now been fixed."
I sayeth to thee :-

you sure m8 ?

Amen.

 

[Florenus]

Is more adorable your way to turn a blind eye at the max price, lol; I give you that, you know how to avoid a subject where you have no arguments

You've started this argument stating that

Average price right now on INARA - 88 202 credits.... a shame .... that is a 90 % cut....

 

[Ian Doncaster]

fact is the promised 600k The HIGHEST price never show up

There's two possible reasons for that.

1) Price is affected both by BGS state and demand. An empty or low demand can take a big chunk off the price. By the time the price gets onto EDDB by definition someone already knows about it, so it won't be at the peak possible, and it'll drop further as more people go in ... especially if it's the highest price on the board and carrier fleets are selling up there.

2) Just because a price is theoretically possible doesn't mean it will always show up, guaranteed, somewhere in the galaxy. Ceramic Composites can sell at around 27000 credits in the ideal BGS state combination - I had one near me last month. However, that combination is Investment + Expansion + Infrastructure Failure - three relatively rare states which have (to an extent) opposite causes, so getting all three on the same station at once (which also happens to import Ceramic Composites) is really rare ... as a result, the best current price (at least, in the half of the galaxy that EDDB knows about) is a mere 10000 credits. But if Frontier said "Ceramic Composites can sell for 27000 credits" they'd be entirely accurate, even though it doesn't look believable now.

Similarly with the right combination, Grain could sell for 28000 credits, but the highest current price on EDDB is only 3800 because it requires an incredibly rare combination of two different short-lived states to boost it that high. (This one is so rare that I've never personally seen it, but the maths says it's possible)

The previous Painite pricing structure also relied on a rare combination but one which would generally happen somewhere just through there being 20,000 systems in the bubble. If this one is more complex, it'll take longer. Perhaps some people will stockpile on their carriers waiting for it to happen, and you can sell to them instead...

 

[Jmanis]

Is more adorable your way to turn a blind eye at the max price, lol; I give you that, you know how to avoid a subject where you have no arguments

No, I just can't argue with someone blathering inanely. I'd try to counter if there was anything sensible in your response.

I mean, we can start again if you like?

Average (the galactic average) was 71,596, it changed to 52,985 (hey look! I made a mistake and got that back to front!). I do not care what you could commonly find. That's the galactic average. You want to make your own meaning for things, be my guest, but be ready for everyone who can't understand what you're on about.

So, you compared painite prices in an Investment, Civil Liberty, Expansion state (=~800k) to price of 88k which is completely unoptimised for state. What a pointless and disingenous comparison. You might've well been comparing the price of bauxite and painite. Compare like with like, which actually gets you about 375k when you do.

Funnily enough, there's currently a Boom, Civil Liberty, Public Holiday station selling for 440k[1]. My gut tells me based off how this used to work if that hit investment, that would then reach the 600k mark. So surprise surprise, we don't know the full picture yet.

So now we're much closer to just a 40% cut.

[1] Conceding that got updated seconds ago, so I still need to validate.

 

[Dan Sho]

the assumption is wrong.

yesterday i sold 1t of painite at 0200 servertime (11 hours after the tick) at a station with with 1100 demand. this morning it is back to 1100 demand.

[...]

for similar concerns on tick time generally, i would love fdev to schedule the tick at a 25 hours cycle - but as sometimes things go bad with a tick, i totally understand as a uk company they want to have the tick happen during uk office hours.

Bad news for you, then: it won't recover at the tick either...

There are two issues working to keep the demand low:
1) Demand can be negative if a station is over-sold to.

[...]


All commodities behave like this - except that before this week's changes, there was a bug meaning that Painite and some core gems didn't - their demand regenerated infinitely fast. This has now been fixed.

Most commodities, however, regenerate sufficiently fast and are traded sufficiently infrequently in any one place, that it's very rare for them to spend much time below the cap on total positive demand, and so this effect isn't really noticed. Even something moderately popular and fairly slow to regenerate like Performance Enhancers spends most of its time at the cap at most stations

History of Performance Enhancers at Dove Enigma

cdb.sotl.org.uk

Thanks for those informations. I will have a close look into it. If these assumptions are right it will explain how the system should work and that it can be tweaked.

 

[SENA-]

There's two possible reasons for that.

1) Price is affected both by BGS state and demand. An empty or low demand can take a big chunk off the price. By the time the price gets onto EDDB by definition someone already knows about it, so it won't be at the peak possible, and it'll drop further as more people go in ... especially if it's the highest price on the board and carrier fleets are selling up there.

2) Just because a price is theoretically possible doesn't mean it will always show up, guaranteed, somewhere in the galaxy. Ceramic Composites can sell at around 27000 credits in the ideal BGS state combination - I had one near me last month. However, that combination is Investment + Expansion + Infrastructure Failure - three relatively rare states which have (to an extent) opposite causes, so getting all three on the same station at once (which also happens to import Ceramic Composites) is really rare ... as a result, the best current price (at least, in the half of the galaxy that EDDB knows about) is a mere 10000 credits. But if Frontier said "Ceramic Composites can sell for 27000 credits" they'd be entirely accurate, even though it doesn't look believable now.

Similarly with the right combination, Grain could sell for 28000 credits, but the highest current price on EDDB is only 3800 because it requires an incredibly rare combination of two different short-lived states to boost it that high. (This one is so rare that I've never personally seen it, but the maths says it's possible)

The previous Painite pricing structure also relied on a rare combination but one which would generally happen somewhere just through there being 20,000 systems in the bubble. If this one is more complex, it'll take longer. Perhaps some people will stockpile on their carriers waiting for it to happen, and you can sell to them instead...

Make sense, I will wait a couple of weeks to see, my only concern was to have my FC stoked in funds for some years, and that objective was achieved; Positively thinking, I am glad this hard nerf give me enough motivation to drop the boring mining business and dedicate my time to the planned trip to Colonia.

I search now for Tritium on markets, but so far only small pads have, and in very limited quantities... something changed here also after update, but I saw no mentions ; Before you could sometimes get Tritium at 40k range in Large stations - now, no more....

 

[Ian Doncaster]

"This has now been fixed."
I sayeth to thee :-

you sure m8 ?

Painite:

History of Painite at Colonia Orbital

cdb.sotl.org.uk

(watch the increase from 806t to 807t right at the end, ignore the bouncing around in the first half, that's just from the price changes taking a while to propagate across all the market servers)

Benitoite:

History of Benitoite at Colonia Dream

cdb.sotl.org.uk

(again, ignore the jump up at the start from propagation, note the 3t drop just before midnight today actually sticks)

Monazite:

History of Monazite at Colonia Dream

cdb.sotl.org.uk

(a few separate sales each dropping the demand a bit here)

It's early days and fairly subtle, but yes, I'm pretty sure.

And there was much rejoicing

 

[CMDR Serra]

...
I search now for Tritium on markets, but so far only small pads have, and in very limited quantities... something changed here also after update, but I saw no mentions ; Before you could sometimes get Tritium at 40k range in Large stations - now, no more....

My experience is that it's pointless waiting for INARA to show low selling Tritium. It'll all be gone by the time you get there.

The trick is finding it before INARA knows it's there.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I search now for Tritium on markets, but so far only small pads have, and in very limited quantities... something changed here also after update, but I saw no mentions ; Before you could sometimes get Tritium at 40k range in Large stations - now, no more....

Tritium seems to have been moved from 40-55k to 50-65k, with a corresponding boost in Galactic Average price.

Good news for Tritium miners, probably about neutral for Tritium haulers, less good for carrier owners of course.

It's possible that the ultra-low prices in certain states have gone - hard to say so far - but for the hauling profit there are other ways to get small (T-9 rather than a full carrier, I mean by small) quantities of extremely profitable trade, similar to how Tritium used to work, across a range of other commodities (Gold, for example, seems a good candidate for this)

 

[SENA-]

No, I just can't argue with someone blathering inanely. I'd try to counter if there was anything sensible in your response.

I mean, we can start again if you like?

Average (the galactic average) was 71,596, it changed to 52,985 (hey look! I made a mistake and got that back to front!). I do not care what you could commonly find. That's the galactic average. You want to make your own meaning for things, be my guest, but be ready for everyone who can't understand what you're on about.

So, you compared painite prices in an Investment, Civil Liberty, Expansion state (=~800k) to price of 88k which is completely unoptimised for state. What a pointless and disingenous comparison. You might've well been comparing the price of bauxite and painite. Compare like with like, which actually gets you about 375k when you do.

Funnily enough, there's currently a Boom, Civil Liberty, Public Holiday station selling for 440k[1]. My gut tells me based off how this used to work if that hit investment, that would then reach the 600k mark. So surprise surprise, we don't know the full picture yet.

So now we're much closer to just a 40% cut.

[1] Conceding that got updated seconds ago, so I still need to validate.

My point was made from a practical position; You start arguing with theoretical concepts, with little impact on the real game, and fail to see the practical reality:
I will try again, like you said, in a new start:

Practically - attention - last week you could easily sell for 800k, with no problem at all, ANY DAY ! You do agree with this, I hope. If you wanted to wait a bit more, usually you could get 1-2 times / week over 1 million.

Right now, after nerf, I think the best you can hope will be around 400k, after waiting and searching, and day-by-day between 250-350k.

True, is only short after nerf, but I think will be no significant changes in the nearest future. And the 600k condition, may be very, very rare...

 

[SENA-]

Tritium seems to have been moved from 40-55k to 50-65k, with a corresponding boost in Galactic Average price.

Good news for Tritium miners, probably about neutral for Tritium haulers, less good for carrier owners of course.

It's possible that the ultra-low prices in certain states have gone - hard to say so far - but for the hauling profit there are other ways to get small (T-9 rather than a full carrier, I mean by small) quantities of extremely profitable trade, similar to how Tritium used to work, across a range of other commodities (Gold, for example, seems a good candidate for this)

My concern is ( since I wish to buy a large stock, over 6-7k - so I can just explore and enjoy the trip to Colonia without loosing time in boring tritium mining...) - is to the nerf of Large pads - all "decent" prices, around 40k are ONLY on medium pads, so one will need dozens after dozens of trips in Python to get a significant load. The T9 could reduce that by almost 1/3, but with no more L pads, is out now...

And on Large stations is indeed a significant bigger price ... some extra 20 millions / 1000 tones difference.

 

[CMDR Serra]

My concern is ( since I wish to buy a large stock, over 6-7k - so I can just explore and enjoy the trip to Colonia without loosing time in boring tritium mining...) - is to the nerf of Large pads - all "decent" prices, around 40k are ONLY on medium pads, so one will need dozens after dozens of trips in Python to get a significant load. The T9 could reduce that by almost 1/3, but with no more L pads, is out now...

And on Large stations is indeed a significant bigger price ... some extra 20 millions / 1000 tones difference.

Shoot me a DM. I'll sell you 5k of Tritium and even deliver it to you in the bubble for 65k per unit.

 

[Rat Catcher]

I'm all in favour of the changes made in commodity pricing this week, making a good profit from goods I'd normally ignore as they were too low a margin!
Horses for courses, I suppose...

Granted - hiking up the Tritium price a little may be interesting in the future when I need to source more - I'll cross that bridge when I come to it!

 

[Nathan84]

I'm all in favour of the changes made in commodity pricing this week, making a good profit from goods I'd normally ignore as they were too low a margin!
Horses for courses, I suppose...

Granted - hiking up the Tritium price a little may be interesting in the future when I need to source more - I'll cross that bridge when I come to it!

Just don't take Source and Return missions for commodities whose prices were increased, payouts haven't been updated to reflect the changes.

14m loss on a single S&R mission (600t of Gold), good thing it's influence I'm after (would have been a 12m loss taking the credits reward btw)

 

[Jmanis]

Just don't take Source and Return missions for commodities whose prices were increased, payouts haven't been updated to reflect the changes.

14m loss on a single S&R mission (600t of Gold), good thing it's influence I'm after (would have been a 12m loss taking the credits reward btw)

Conversely, take missions to deliver some goods which got uptweaked, take the goods, abandon mission and sell on black market; you'll make more than the reward - fine.

 

[MickyG1982]

Simple solution here...

Don't do the same thing as everyone else.