General / Off-Topic The safest place
- Thread starter Robin of Spiritwood
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A lot has been said about the rise in numbers of cases in the USA, but from here it seems like lot of this is a result of the rise of testing, and many of those being tested are perfectly healthy.
Yesterday alone, 930K people were tested, and only 8.5% we positive (I wonder if the other 91.5% had something else, like a cold? Or were they just curious?)
Another stat is the mortality rate.
I can't be sure why the USA is doing so much better than much of Europe, but if I had to guess I'd say it's because we are testing so widely we're getting a lot of positive results from asymptomatic young people:
United Kingdom 15.3%
Belgium 15.1%
Italy 14.3%
France 13.9%
Hungary 13.6%
Netherlands 11.7%
Spain 10.4%
Sweden 7.2%
Ireland 6.8%
Switzerland 5.8%
Romania 5.1%
Greece 4.9%
Denmark 4.5%
Finland 4.5%
Germany 4.4%
Lithuania 4.0%
Poland 3.9%
US 3.5%
coronavirus.jhu.edu
I'd love to hear your thoughts on this - is there another plausible explanation?
Yesterday alone, 930K people were tested, and only 8.5% we positive (I wonder if the other 91.5% had something else, like a cold? Or were they just curious?)
Another stat is the mortality rate.
I can't be sure why the USA is doing so much better than much of Europe, but if I had to guess I'd say it's because we are testing so widely we're getting a lot of positive results from asymptomatic young people:
United Kingdom 15.3%
Belgium 15.1%
Italy 14.3%
France 13.9%
Hungary 13.6%
Netherlands 11.7%
Spain 10.4%
Sweden 7.2%
Ireland 6.8%
Switzerland 5.8%
Romania 5.1%
Greece 4.9%
Denmark 4.5%
Finland 4.5%
Germany 4.4%
Lithuania 4.0%
Poland 3.9%
US 3.5%
Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.
coronavirus.jhu.edu
I'd love to hear your thoughts on this - is there another plausible explanation?
All but 1 of the countries in that list of mortality rates have their infections under control, at least to the point that they are looking out for second waves. I'll let you guess which one is still adding large numbers to their mortality count each day ...A lot has been said about the rise in numbers of cases in the USA, but from here it seems like lot of this is a result of the rise of testing, and many of those being tested are perfectly healthy.
Yesterday alone, 930K people were tested, and only 8.5% we positive (I wonder if the other 91.5% had something else, like a cold? Or were they just curious?)
Another stat is the mortality rate.
I can't be sure why the USA is doing so much better than much of Europe, but if I had to guess I'd say it's because we are testing so widely we're getting a lot of positive results from asymptomatic young people:
United Kingdom 15.3%
Belgium 15.1%
Italy 14.3%
France 13.9%
Hungary 13.6%
Netherlands 11.7%
Spain 10.4%
Sweden 7.2%
Ireland 6.8%
Switzerland 5.8%
Romania 5.1%
Greece 4.9%
Denmark 4.5%
Finland 4.5%
Germany 4.4%
Lithuania 4.0%
Poland 3.9%
US 3.5%
Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on this - is there another plausible explanation?
I'd also look at the positive test rates as broken down by state if I were you - would give you a better idea what a 'low' rate is. And 8.5 is not the answer...
As for the 91.5% - you do know that people can be asymptomatic. Hopefully they're not just testing the symptomatic cases, or they will be missing a few cases.
I suspect a lot of it is down to how the figures are obtained. Mortality per case (in your example) really depends on what is considered a "case" by the reporting authority - the figures for mortality per 100,000 of the population is probably more indicative:
| Country | Confirmed | Deaths | Case-Fatality | Deaths/100K pop. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marino | 699 | 42 | 6.0% | 124.32 |
| Belgium | 65,199 | 9,817 | 15.1% | 85.95 |
| United Kingdom | 299,500 | 45,762 | 15.3% | 68.83 |
| Andorra | 897 | 52 | 5.8% | 67.53 |
| Spain | 272,421 | 28,432 | 10.4% | 60.85 |
| Italy | 245,590 | 35,097 | 14.3% | 58.08 |
| Sweden | 78,997 | 5,697 | 7.2% | 55.95 |
| Peru | 375,961 | 17,843 | 4.7% | 55.78 |
| Chile | 341,304 | 8,914 | 2.6% | 47.59 |
| France | 217,797 | 30,195 | 13.9% | 45.08 |
| US | 4,112,531 | 145,546 | 3.5% | 44.49 |
The virus arrived later in the United States.A lot has been said about the rise in numbers of cases in the USA, but from here it seems like lot of this is a result of the rise of testing, and many of those being tested are perfectly healthy.
Yesterday alone, 930K people were tested, and only 8.5% we positive (I wonder if the other 91.5% had something else, like a cold? Or were they just curious?)
Another stat is the mortality rate.
I can't be sure why the USA is doing so much better than much of Europe, but if I had to guess I'd say it's because we are testing so widely we're getting a lot of positive results from asymptomatic young people:
United Kingdom 15.3%
Belgium 15.1%
Italy 14.3%
France 13.9%
Hungary 13.6%
Netherlands 11.7%
Spain 10.4%
Sweden 7.2%
Ireland 6.8%
Switzerland 5.8%
Romania 5.1%
Greece 4.9%
Denmark 4.5%
Finland 4.5%
Germany 4.4%
Lithuania 4.0%
Poland 3.9%
US 3.5%
Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on this - is there another plausible explanation?
You are still in it (in the first wave), we Europeans have been out for several weeks and we are waiting for the second wave, if it comes.
Accounts must be done at the end and for the same duration of contamination for each country.
It will be difficult to compare objectively, the specificities of each country are different in several areas .
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5 new cases confirmed. All household contacts of a previous case, imported in from another country.
One school closed because they sent a symptomatic 9 year old to classes, exposing 70 children and 6 adults for 3 days.
300 possible secondary contacts are now isolated. Mostly at home.
Our parallel Covid healthcare reserve is set up to take 300 cases in 2 dedicated hospitals, and they are at 5% capacity. All mild.
This is the limit of our containment ability I think. We can't track and isolate thousands. But hundreds is manageable. The grimness of the breach was reflected in the MoH update today. Police powers and security steps have been increased. Theres a crackdown on sea traffic and such, to stop mainlanders from seeking access illegally.
Turned down work at surgery, handed it to a younger man. I have to reduce exposure.
Surprisingly no reduction in the reopening steps were announced yet. Guess they think containment is still ok. But opening cinemas etc hss been shelved.
When we start dying, the admin will probably regret bringing back people from infected locales. It was a very bad idea.
Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on this - is there another plausible explanation?
The ICU care in the US is very good. High level of expertise, and sdvanced tech. That is certainly reducing deaths.
The contacts of cases should make up a big portion of testing, and lots of them would be not sick.
I think that the prevalent strain is less lethal but more infectious at the moment, going by global mortality vs cases increasing. But it might be due to better medical treatment too.
Paper products almost back to normal. Still no disinfectants.
Saw a banner towing aircraft on Thursday, Of course, I could not read the banner...
Saw a banner towing aircraft on Thursday, Of course, I could not read the banner...
Mask vs Shield.
Face Shields Versus Masks for Protection From COVID-19
Are face masks more effective than clear plastic face shields in protecting from infection with coronavirus? Here's advice from public health experts.
www.aarp.org
There's a growing push to shift towards face shields instead of expensive masks that are uncleanable/unreusable and at best need replaceable filters. Plastic shields have economic advantages, are easy to clean, and you only need get one. They give eye protection, allow better communication, etc.
How do they work? The air intake isn't filtered.
Well, droplets fall to the ground. So they are unlikely to travel up under the shield if you maintain 6 feet distance, as most will have just fallen. This won't protect vs aerosol particles.
To make it work well there are a few suggested features:
- no gap at the top. Shield should fit flush vs the forehead. Stops droplets descending into the intake air.
- no gap at the sides. Shield edge should sit along the side of the face to restrict airflow in from the sides.
- extend past chin. Length should exceed the mouth to block exhalate.
Efficacy of face shields against cough aerosol droplets from a cough simulator - PubMed
Health care workers are exposed to potentially infectious airborne particles while providing routine care to coughing patients. However, much is not understood about the behavior of these aerosols and the risks they pose. We used a coughing patient simulator and a breathing worker simulator to...
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
It is probably sufficient by itself to have a good impact if combined with 6 foot distancing for the general public.
I wish I had my helmet back...
Mask vs Shield.
Face Shields Versus Masks for Protection From COVID-19
Are face masks more effective than clear plastic face shields in protecting from infection with coronavirus? Here's advice from public health experts.
There's a growing push to shift towards face shields instead of expensive masks that are uncleanable/unreusable and at best need replaceable filters. Plastic shields have economic advantages, are easy to clean, and you only need get one. They give eye protection, allow better communication, etc.
How do they work? The air intake isn't filtered.
Well, droplets fall to the ground. So they are unlikely to travel up under the shield if you maintain 6 feet distance, as most will have just fallen. This won't protect vs aerosol particles.
To make it work well there are a few suggested features:
- no gap at the top. Shield should fit flush vs the forehead. Stops droplets descending into the intake air.
- no gap at the sides. Shield edge should sit along the side of the face to restrict airflow in from the sides.
- extend past chin. Length should exceed the mouth to block exhalate.
A med engineering simulated study looking at effectiveness gave some high numbers for test performance.Efficacy of face shields against cough aerosol droplets from a cough simulator - PubMed
Health care workers are exposed to potentially infectious airborne particles while providing routine care to coughing patients. However, much is not understood about the behavior of these aerosols and the risks they pose. We used a coughing patient simulator and a breathing worker simulator to...
It is probably sufficient by itself to have a good impact if combined with 6 foot distancing for the general public.
Source: https://twitter.com/shesinscrubs/status/1284950366744989696
Its Twitter, so make of it what you will.
Of course there is, and obviously so I'd almost add. But as last time I did you just literally responded with ´troll troll troll´, I think I´ll not waste my time again.
One of our game group got back positive results for the virus on Friday. He had been planning to go to a family reunion this weekend.
He is isolating at home, with his cat.
He's a pretty cautious guy. There's no way this is going to end in time for schools to open, or mass gatherings to be possible/safe.
I'm hiding in my basement as long as I can. Once a week to the store is all that I can muster the courage for.
Oh, my cell phone is dying as well. I dread getting a new phone (it's like moving).
He is isolating at home, with his cat.
He's a pretty cautious guy. There's no way this is going to end in time for schools to open, or mass gatherings to be possible/safe.
I'm hiding in my basement as long as I can. Once a week to the store is all that I can muster the courage for.
Oh, my cell phone is dying as well. I dread getting a new phone (it's like moving).
That is bad news. How old is he?
(And this could be the chance to get a Star Trek Communicator- bluetooth)
Unfortunately we are not done with this vicious virus.
However, you can go out into the nature alone away from people.
Enjoy the sun, the fresh air.
Because of a surge in requests and a shortage of lab reagents, tests are logjammed in the states.
Delay has climbed from 8 days to 10, and now 14 days. Some labs are operating at just 20% capacity.
This is exactly what I've been saying. Case count is overwhelming the ability to respond.
As the public health tracking fails, it simply continues unchecked to even more people. Fortunately, the outbreak isn't a flat problem across the continent- it's confined to locales, so there's still hope. And a sizeable proportion of this new phase is in younger fitter people, likely to recover.
As this thing rolls on with exponential global spread, the same thing will happen even sooner in poorer countries that don't have testing/treatment infrastructure and personnel. India and Mexico are seeing huge death totals compared to their case counts.
Maybe it is hubris to think that humanity is able to contain a pandemic. It just might be that we need to develop more capability as a species. But not scientific capability - response, information, and governing capability is what has been lacking. How do we survive this? It seems that there's cross immunity to SARS, suggesting that there might be hope for a CMIR T-cell defense, not mediated by antibodies, which could give immunity. Maybe the infected will become immune that way?
Delay has climbed from 8 days to 10, and now 14 days. Some labs are operating at just 20% capacity.
-WaPo.
This is exactly what I've been saying. Case count is overwhelming the ability to respond.
As the public health tracking fails, it simply continues unchecked to even more people. Fortunately, the outbreak isn't a flat problem across the continent- it's confined to locales, so there's still hope. And a sizeable proportion of this new phase is in younger fitter people, likely to recover.
As this thing rolls on with exponential global spread, the same thing will happen even sooner in poorer countries that don't have testing/treatment infrastructure and personnel. India and Mexico are seeing huge death totals compared to their case counts.
Maybe it is hubris to think that humanity is able to contain a pandemic. It just might be that we need to develop more capability as a species. But not scientific capability - response, information, and governing capability is what has been lacking. How do we survive this? It seems that there's cross immunity to SARS, suggesting that there might be hope for a CMIR T-cell defense, not mediated by antibodies, which could give immunity. Maybe the infected will become immune that way?
There are currently 650,000 (official) deaths on the planet. Certainly a lot more, maybe double, triple ?
Do you think this pandemic can kill millions of people by the end of the year ?
There are currently 650,000 (official) deaths on the planet. Certainly a lot more, maybe double, triple ?
Do you think this pandemic can kill millions of people by the end of the year ?
WHO characterized the pandemic as such on March 11th, 2020 . That is 4 months and 2 weeks for it to amount to 650k Deaths . It shows no sign of slowing down ( globally ) . Maybe "millions by the end of year" is far fetched - unless one takes into consideration deaths caused by effects of the pandemic ( hunger for instance ) . It certainly has the potential to directly kill over 1 mill. people, before the year is over, though .
Realistic.
And indeed the collateral damage will certainly be more devastating than the Covid itself.
Realistic.
And indeed the collateral damage will certainly be more devastating than the Covid itself.
Foodshortage already was an Issue for at least 2 years ( though that did not really register in rich countries much ) . I am operating on the assumption that the problem will become more apparent to everyone on the Planet coming fall/winter .
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