US Herd Immunity calculation: 17th-9-2020
“Herd Immunity”: A Rough Guide
Abstract. The term “herd immunity” is widely used but carries a variety of meanings [1–7]. Some authors use it to describe the proportion immune among individuaacademic.oup.com
^600 citations!
Current numbers today:
Population 330 million.
Reported Cases: 6.8 million
Deaths reported: 201 thousand
Covid 19 R0 = 2.5( estimated)
% infected = (6.8/330) * 100 = 2% population infected so far
% death rate = (201/6800) * 100 = 3% of infected cases die
Business Insider estimates 2 million dead. Total, following this strategy.
I think they are grossly wrong.
Pursuing herd immunity is a non-strategy that could cause mass death without boosting the economy. A Trump adviser may be pushing for it.
If the US were to fully pursue herd immunity without a vaccine, the coronavirus could kill 2 million people nationwide.www.businessinsider.com
Ok, suppose we do not get any vaccine. The infection runs like every pandemic has in the past. At an R0 of 2.5, the lower estimates are 60-65% of total population infected, with a declining rate thereafter, which would then run till about 80% are infected before it burns out. Business Insider is ignoring the burnout part.
These are rough but realistic estimates. It could be worse. Some estimates are as high as 75% to get the R0 to start to decline, which would wind up ending at 85% to 90% total infected. There are suggestions as low as 20%, but those are considered political and ascientific in nature. We can ignore those.
Here is the math:
80% total population = 330 million * 0.8 = 264 million infected by the time it is over
Estimated deaths from established rate = 264 million * 0.03 = 7.92 million dead
However, it is very unlikely that the US health services could maintain their standard of care if faced with 264 million patients. That is a very very far cry from 6.8 million!
The death rate will at least double because at 40 times the current patient loads, we will saturate the ICU units. Doubling is extremely conservative.
7.92 million doubled = ~15 million dead. Extremely conservative estimate.
Five times worse: ~40 million dead. More realistic figure? Maybe not if the numbers overspill into younger cohorts, like in India now.
Depending on the speed of transmission, if the ICU's are perma-saturated, nobody new gets ventillated or oxygenated properly. All normal ICU cases of opoid overdose, heart attacks, strokes, surgical cases, etc get no care. Opioid cases will surge as the stress increases. It's already happening.
Dead is dead, no matter the cause, so counting only the Covid-19 deaths is not realistic. It does not give us the full picture.
Herd immunity as a strategy is now being proposed by President D.J. Trump, as no vaccine will be ready to distribute before November, despite his false assurances. People deserve accurate projections about what this is going to actually mean. If followed till vaccines emerge in mid 2021, it could have a large impact on survival.
This course of action was predicted here weeks ago.
Dr. Redfield, CDC chief, testified under oath, and is not likely to be misleading anyone.
His main detractor, a former Russian advisor named Caputo with zero medical knowledge, appointed by the President to HHS, has been trying to obscure CDC data from revealing the reality. Suffering what seems to be some kind of breakdown, Caputo was sent on medical leave after bizarrely claiming that CDC officials are tryng to "kill him", and that a "deep state cabal of scientists are trying to do political things" etc. It appears he is not taking the revealing of the truth too well, or he's worried about the consequences of his failure. He's living where he's making Coronavirus worse, so that should be the least of his worries. But- no medical knowledge.
I cannot understand why telling people to wear masks is so fraught in the USA. The US is on the edge of a cliff. It does not have to be.
Herd immunity as a strategy will be the biggest mass killing so far in this new century.
Those are scary as hell numbers.
![[PS4] Lorenzo Waringos](https://d2aefvhu2f0gi9.cloudfront.net/data/avatars/m/234/234580.jpg?1612617334){kind=avatar}
