The numbers are what they are, but context is important. If you look at the chart over the last three months, NMS and ED enjoyed similar numbers. It is only very recently that NMS numbers exploded. What changed? It is obviously the new perma-death expedition that NMS has released. As the numbers show, it has been well-received, to say the least. There is a lesson here for FDev: getting imaginative with in-game content can be a gamble that pays off big. I am hoping that the major narrative phase in August does the same for Odyssey.
I have always found it striking that even with all the fallout from the Odyssey launch debacle, Elite was still maintaining population parity with the better received NMS! There remains a core strength to Elite that even the infamous launch of Odyssey can't tarnish. If FDev keeps their nose to the grindstone and continues to improve the core Odyssey experience (as they indicate they will do through early 2023 at a minimum), I still believe Odyssey will prove to be a net positive for the game (it's not yet, obviously, but could be). I think what is hurting the game the most at the moment is no longer the condition of Odyssey as much as the reputation of Frontier. They burned almost all their good will with the smash-and-grab that was the forced launch of Odyssey. Few trust them anymore, especially the old spacers who've been here since Horizon days. I think that sense of betrayal is what is hurting the franchise the most at the moment. That is the real lesson that FDev needs to learn.