People don't want to buy expansions, so why would they want a subscription model which is what client server would need. It doesn't matter whether FD are a AAA developer or not, it's about profit. Committing to client server would add a heavy on going cost for limited benefit and would almost inevitably force a subscription model. My personal take is that a client server subscription model would kill the game in two years.
Very relevant point that. The real issue with costs in switching away from the P2P model isn't the initial development time spent on reworking the code (although that would no doubt be significant in itself) it's the fact that they have to either buy the physical hardware (the cost of which would be included in the accounts over a number of years) and also absorb the non-trivial associated running and maintenance costs, or they could rent which avoids the capital expenditure but increases the ongoing costs.
Those costs are there forever i.e. for the whole lifespan of the game.
Increased costs aren't a bad thing in and of themselves, as long as there is sufficient income to cover them. That's where the problem may arise because although I have approaching 3,000 hours in this game and have no plans to stop playing it any time soon, the last time FDev sold me a game was in December 2015 when I pre-ordered Horizons.
Sure I've bought entirely optional paintjobs since then but in terms of money spent on the game and updates, which is the only
guaranteed income they have from someone who requires access to the server to play the game, is the money paid for the game itself. In my case that's £17.99 for the base game (bought 25 September 2015) and £29.99 for Horizons (bought 10 December 2015).
Firstly, that's only £47.98 in total to play the game from September 2015 to February 2018, which works out at about £1.60 per month. Compare that to (for example) an Eve subscription, which even on a 12 month package works out at £7.50 per month and you have one issue right away. It's not the biggest one though; for that you need to look at the dates again.
My spending has been heavily front-loaded because although I've played for 30 months, I spent all of the money that I needed to spend in order to do so within the first four months. It's over two years since I paid a penny just to
access the game and from the perspective of the company accounts, that means that after the accounting year in which I spent my £47.98, the income they have received from me to set against the increased costs that would have been incurred in providing a full client/server model is nil.
Based on what they've told us so far, the additional income they could anticipate from me between now and December 2018 is also nil because although there may be some additional paid content coming during 'Beyond' there is no indication that it will be a required purchase to continue playing and as long as I'm playing I'm using server bandwidth. Strictly we shouldn't even be including the £29.99 I paid for Horizons in the figures because that also wasn't a required purchase - strip that out and the minimum spend I actually needed to make to play the game from September 2015 to December 2018 would be the £17.99 I paid for the base game.
There isn't a game company on Earth that could afford to operate that business model. As such, there are only really two options if a change away from P2P was to be made. One is to make updates far more frequent
and to charge for all of them and even then they still wouldn't be getting any additional revenue from LEP holders. The other would be a subscription. A subscription would likely see the number of active players drop off a cliff because although someone who plays for four hours a day may consider it to be worthwhile, someone who plays for four hours a week probably wouldn't and someone who plays for four hours a month wouldn't even consider it.
That's without even getting into the fact that charging a subscription for content delivered at the pace of Season 2 would be an interesting proposition commercially. The pacing of Beyond looks to be more in line with what you would expect, but a lot of Beyond is based around reworking existing content which diminishes its value as a motivator for paying a sub. Ramping up the amount of content and the delivery timetable inherently increases costs because dev hours don't just appear, you have to pay for them, which increases the costs still further and starts another iteration of the cycle.
I really don't see this game as ever being commercially viable running a subscription model. Maybe it could have been if it had been set up that way from day one but after three years that horse has bolted long ago.