Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

Shouldn't AV-Y b4 be under Clean-up? It's not inhabited.

Oops, yes—thank you! Our thingy is supposed to be marking empty systems automatically, but it seems to be just setting the present ports to zero, which makes it more like an Invasion in its final week as opposed to a system with zero total ports.


SNPX is not active with sampling in MCC 105. Think the progress is result of ground missions or actions from other groups.

Thank you for the update! It looked like a lot for being simply ground missions, although after HIP 16954 I suspect that Control systems have been adjusted to be a little easier, so that seems plausible. The suspicion is because we overestimated HIP 16954 a bit (113%, around 1550 rather than 1750 as with many similar systems before), and since update 15.01 the easiest empty Control systems now seem to be 320 rather than 360.

A quick view of empty system difficulty from INIV measurements is something I would like to share; I suspect we are trying to capture something which changes more often than it should:

Week 25.png

Empty system harvest difficulty against light-years from Maelstrom. Logarithmic scale of course, where anything which forms a straight line is actually an exponential curve and seldom happens by chance. The unmarked measurements are prior to update 15, where you can see evidence of another curve-change earlier, but both with a previous minimum at 360 which now appears to be 320.

I will probably have to leave MCC 105 alone; not knowing its difficulty, it has the potential to require a steep request for two evenings. I may try a small measurement if I can find a similar and relatively-untouched system, just in case it is revealed to be viable for Wednesday, but no promises!
 
Oops, yes—thank you! Our thingy is supposed to be marking empty systems automatically, but it seems to be just setting the present ports to zero, which makes it more like an Invasion in its final week as opposed to a system with zero total ports.




Thank you for the update! It looked like a lot for being simply ground missions, although after HIP 16954 I suspect that Control systems have been adjusted to be a little easier, so that seems plausible. The suspicion is because we overestimated HIP 16954 a bit (113%, around 1550 rather than 1750 as with many similar systems before), and since update 15.01 the easiest empty Control systems now seem to be 320 rather than 360.

A quick view of empty system difficulty from INIV measurements is something I would like to share; I suspect we are trying to capture something which changes more often than it should:


Empty system harvest difficulty against light-years from Maelstrom. Logarithmic scale of course, where anything which forms a straight line is actually an exponential curve and seldom happens by chance. The unmarked measurements are prior to update 15, where you can see evidence of another curve-change earlier, but both with a previous minimum at 360 which now appears to be 320.

I will probably have to leave MCC 105 alone; not knowing its difficulty, it has the potential to require a steep request for two evenings. I may try a small measurement if I can find a similar and relatively-untouched system, just in case it is revealed to be viable for Wednesday, but no promises!
Do note that as the system appears to have reached the 33% threshold, any work you put in will carry over to next week.
 
Do note that as the system appears to have reached the 33% threshold, any work you put in will carry over to next week.
Nope, this only works with systems under invasion. Systems under control have in every case one week and after that all progress will be reseted to 0.
 
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Does it have to do with the patch that removed the progress reset?
Controlled States continue indefinitely until the progress bar is completed, therefore, as long as progress each week remains above 33%, the difference will continually be carried forward each week.
 
Ok, then excuse me for posting false information... Thank you for corretion.
 
MCC 105 is progressing through Kills and some Ground Missions. It's not looking like it will be retaken unless we get some help.

As it happens, on the way! I am moving a Carrier nearby for some harvesting there, which I am hoping will count at least for something like one-third to put it into completion range tomorrow, to be discovered in a few hours if everything goes well. Very well done for getting it as far as it is, and please keep moving it if you can!
 
As it happens, on the way! I am moving a Carrier nearby for some harvesting there, which I am hoping will count at least for something like one-third to put it into completion range tomorrow, to be discovered in a few hours if everything goes well. Very well done for getting it as far as it is, and please keep moving it if you can!
Has your carrier a buy order for samples? I'm doing a sampling run at 105 this evening myself, so I might be able to drop some off.
 
As it happens, on the way! I am moving a Carrier nearby for some harvesting there, which I am hoping will count at least for something like one-third to put it into completion range tomorrow, to be discovered in a few hours if everything goes well. Very well done for getting it as far as it is, and please keep moving it if you can!
SNPX did some Scout harvesting. 331 scout samples gave us round 10% progress... So let's go, it is doable til tomorrow evening.
So killing is effective for Control systems now? What kind of numbers have you been doing?
In my opinion it is absolutely not. Yesterday we made a test in Cephei Sector AV-Y b4. Killing 4 Scouts gave a progress of 0,0016% --> by only killing Scouts you will need 250.000 (!!!) of them to get 100% progress. Killing a Cyclops gave 0,0613% progress --> so aprox 1.650 Cyclops kills are needed to complete the system.

What we did not test was completing an ax-combat-zone... this maybe will give more progress.
 
SNPX did some Scout harvesting. 331 scout samples gave us round 10% progress... So let's go, it is doable til tomorrow evening.

In my opinion it is absolutely not. Yesterday we made a test in Cephei Sector AV-Y b4. Killing 4 Scouts gave a progress of 0,0016% --> by only killing Scouts you will need 250.000 (!!!) of them to get 100% progress. Killing a Cyclops gave 0,0613% progress --> so aprox 1.650 Cyclops kills are needed to complete the system.

What we did not test was completing an ax-combat-zone... this maybe will give more progress.
Good to have some solid numbers on that! Interesting to see that Scout samples had that much effect - I had thought they were much less effective per sample than Cyclops samples. Do Scout samples have any lower glitch rate than Interceptor sampling?
 
Good to have some solid numbers on that! Interesting to see that Scout samples had that much effect - I had thought they were much less effective per sample than Cyclops samples. Do Scout samples have any lower glitch rate than Interceptor sampling?
I thought Scout samples would have a lower worth. But in control systems it may be the same than samples from interceptors...
 
Just delivered 1303 Cyclops pieces for MCC 105! Thank you to @Starsong for helping out there; I forgot to check whether you were delivering Cyclops samples specifically or to set any other buy-orders, but if so and if you found the Carrier well, they are now safe.

Public reports had MCC 105 at 48.341% before, and it is now showing 86%; is anyone able to jump back there and give us a more specific number?

Additional: Now on 87.2836%, which places MCC 105 somewhat approximately at 3346 difficulty, or another 426 samples. We will have it recaptured!
 
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Victories in Col 285 Sectors BU-X b15-1 and ZY-X b15-8, Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0, HIPs 21724 and 117177, Ngolite, Unktety, Cephei Sectors AV-Y b4 and AV-Y b5; that is forty-eight, with a few more still to follow!

INIV can finish any deficit remaining at MCC 105 later this evening if needed; that said, if mission-runners can give it another 3% or so (~90% completion) it would fit us nicely without any need to restock. Meanwhile, a lot of progress is held at HR 1812 and Senocidi, any help with which I presume PDES will be very happy!

Invasions at 07:10 24th May 3309:
HIP 20491 Invasion 94% *94.7%Indra 23 Ly, 4 ports, 1720 Ls 0.18g planet attack
HIP 116360 Invasion 60% *60.4%Raijin 21 Ly, 3 ports, 861 Ls 0.3g planet attack, 462 Ls 0.2g planet damage
A few percent short:

Yan Zangata Invasion 48% — Hadad 22 Ly, 2 ports, 98 Ls outpost attack
Surplus:

Jawul Invasion 36% *37.6%Raijin 27 Ly, 5 ports, 3028 Ls outpost + 3040 Ls outpost attack
HIP 19757 Invasion 32% *32.8%Indra 25 Ly, 4 ports, 1098 Ls 0.4g planet attack

Alerts:
Namayu Alert 94% *97.2%Taranis 27 Ly, 374 Ls outpost, 255 Ls planet
Narrowly, Wednesday caution:

HR 1812 Alert 74% *74.7%Taranis 27 Ly, 1554 Ls planet
Senocidi Alert 74% *74.6%Taranis 20 Ly, 184 Ls starport, 3144 Ls outpost, 467k Ls planet
Unlikely:

69 Upsilon Tauri Alert 42% *44%Indra 26 Ly, 3628 Ls starport, 3697 Ls outpost

Eviction:
MCC 105 Control 86% *87.9%Oya 22 Ly

Clean-up:
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2 Alert 70% — Indra 26 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2 Alert 30% — Hadad 21 Ly, empty
 
I've been making overtures in HR 1812 for the last couple of days, mainly Orthrus hunting with Scout massacre missions on the side (while FDev work out how to turn the lights back on the Interceptor hearts). Having fun as they don't seem to be as rare as I had expected, so I've been able to experiment with different loadouts. I've only seen a couple of Commanders, so it has been a bit lonesome out there, but it has been a nice change of pace from Imeut.

Do we have any numbers on how much Orthrus kills help to move the chevron? If no Orthrus turns up is it better to scoop and sell the Sensor or destroy it?
 
So killing is effective for Control systems now? What kind of numbers have you been doing?
Not sure. Inara is showing about 2200 kills in total but that will be an incomplete picture. It looks like it would be possible to recapture using kills if there were enough commanders doing it. We did clear a few AXCZ'swhich may have added to the progress but were hindered by repeated bugging out at a point where more interceptors should have been dropping in but it all went quiet.
 
Not sure if there is any relevance but:
1. MCC 105 is one of the dedicated counter attack systems. Perhaps kills have been given more weight in these?
2. I was also stacking cyclops and scout killing missions from an Alert system (Muncheim) and fulfilling them in MCC 105. This shouldn't have made any difference to progress in MCC 105 but I mention it here in case there is a connection.
 
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