Wowzer that's low attendance. The 'buy-in' cost is quite high, although we have had quite a while to complete all the steps to access this content.
I think it's compounding effects.
- Buy-in cost, as described
- The overall activity itself is not straightforward, therefore accessibility (or perceived accessibility) is low.
- The core activity consists mostly of sitting and waiting.
- There is a genuine threat of destruction
- The pay for the tissue samples is, compared to a typical BH or Trade CG, very low
- Just skins as rewards; no equipment rewards, or equipment unlocked
It's worth noting though, the Aegis CG has nearly hit Tier 1 already (looks to be around 12500-15000t?), with early end set at 500,000t. Even Azimuth with just 50-odd participants will likely hit Tier 1.
The limits are actually pretty reasonable... my own finger in the wind would've gone:
- Most low-participation CGs are ~1000 people.
- You can probably get 50 samples in a reasonable night session of play.
- If everyone just did it for one night, that'd give 50,000t, averaged out (some might just do 10t, some might do 200t in a session). Make that the T1 goal.
- If everyone did it every night, that's 350,000t... so set that as a committed goal (which does appear to be where Tier 2 sits)
- To account for more people or just high performance... set the clearout as 2.5 times that, so that'd be 875k.
So it'd appear that FD did forecast a lower-than-1000 turnout... T1 is about a quarter of my T1 estimate, T2 is about right, Clearout is just under half. Without looking to tweak a bunch of dials with those estimates, there's a sane path from that to FD's set goals here if you start factoring in other things... so it's a pretty decent landing point.
It would be funny if T1 rewarded, like, 50-500m across the rankings, and clearout tier hit a max prize of 2b, just to get people surging after the fact.
Considering how boosted the profits of some items are in normal trade CGs, the payouts on samples needed to be made much higher for this, like, 4 times the standard value at least.