Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Aleks Zuno]

Okay—a progress-equalising strike should be on its way for Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0, and we have also its final 15% stored. As soon as peripheral progress maximises both that system and Obassi Osaw at 85%, the Spire siege is done for the week!

The final 15% for Obassi Osaw is not yet stored, so any extra individual progress there beyond 85% but before mid-evening tomorrow will contribute usefully. That said, turning attention onto the Alerts could be even more useful!

And speaking of - does anybody know of that planned ‘stability update’ said to come toward the end of this month is still on? Because we’re pretty much there, and I’ve not seen any mentions on the forums, at least…

If it helps, we have a good guess here for said update occurring on Tuesday, but otherwise I think the only official news for a while has been more paints.

 

[Kira Goto]

If it helps, we have a good guess here for said update occurring on Tuesday,

Missed that, thanks. I’d have guessed Monday, but Tuesday seems plausible too.

If it occurs on Wednesday(the - questionable - war anniversary) or Thursday… I’ll keep an eyebrow raised for any potential Thargoid surprises. With Sally, we might’ve had an announcement about the update ahead of time already, though, I think…

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Obamumbo, Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3, Col 285 Sectors UH-C b13-2 and OG-E b12-1, 97 i Tauri (well done @Starsong!) and Akbakara!

For those at M. Leigong, the remaining actions needed are:

• Besiege the Spire at Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 until Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0 and Obassi Osaw reach 85%.
  • Optionally, help Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0 individually just a little, to balance them as they approach 85%.
    Remaining at the Spire site is fine and may be easier, in return for more time needed there.
• After those Control systems reach 85%:
  • The Spire can be abandoned for now, likely around 62–64%.
    This is because a completed periphery is needed next week, clearing both Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 and HIP 9180 together.
  • The Alerts need help, listed below, including the inhabited HIP 7277.
    The periphery next week will have places for up to three missed Alerts, but the extra clearing is not ideal.
  • Optionally, individual action to push Obassi Osaw beyond 85% is helpful until around 22:00 (27 November 3309).
    Leave Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0 alone; it has a full payload stored already.

Peripheries at 07:30 27th November 3309:
Three systems with 56% — Indra 19–20 Ly, 564–727 strength
Three systems with 54% — Leigong 15–16 Ly, 1 matrix + 2 inhabited, 2678–3097 strength
Ten systems with 18% — Raijin 23–27 Ly, 1 matrix + 3 inhabited, 328–2211 strength

Alerts:
HIP 21261 Alert 68% *68.1% — Indra 20 Ly, 18 Ls outpost, 285 Ls planet, Peripheral system
HIP 7277 Alert 60% *60.1% — Leigong 17 Ly, 580 Ls outpost, 152 Ls planet, Peripheral system
Trailing very slightly:
Scythia Alert 52% — Indra 20 Ly, 270k Ls outpost, Peripheral system
Nu Guang Alert 46% — Raijin 19 Ly, 44 Ls starport, 1506 Ls outpost, 44 Ls planet

Evictions:
HIP 22524 Control 84% — Indra 20 Ly, 732 strength
Lei Hsini Control 84% — Indra 21 Ly, 632 strength
Obassi Osaw Control 80% *81.1% — Leigong 16 Ly, 2678 strength, Peripheral system
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0 Control 76% — Leigong 16 Ly, 3097 strength, Peripheral system

Clean-up:
Arietis Sector KM-W c1-14 Alert 92% — Leigong 25 Ly
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-2 Alert 90% — Leigong 21 Ly
Arietis Sector FG-Y d38 Alert 78% — Leigong 20 Ly, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31 Alert 76% *76.7% — Hadad 20 Ly, Peripheral system
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-2 Alert 76% — Leigong 21 Ly, Peripheral system
Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 Matrix 54% *54.8% — Leigong 15 Ly

 

[Ian Doncaster]

After those Control systems reach 85%:

• The Spire can be abandoned for now, likely around 62–64%.
  This is because a completed periphery is needed next week, clearing both Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 and HIP 9180 together.

While a 1-week final clearance would be ideal, the contingency plans for a 2-week final clearance also look practical, and would arguably benefit from pushing the YE-R spire to 70% or so now so that on the 2-week plan it gets cleared a week ahead of HIP 9180:

Week 1: 7 existing controls (2 spire), no new alerts, +if necessary up to 3 of 5 of the current Alerts surviving to Invasion/Control (which should be re-cleared as Control in week 1 if so)
Week 2: on 2/3 weekly clearance, YE-R has now been cleared. HIP 8033, Arietis XJ-R, HIP 10118 and HIP 9180 place new Alerts, so this week has 6 control (1 spire) + 4 Alerts provided anything which wasn't blocked at Alert this week was cleaned up in Week 1, and the plan still works to finish the job.
(Options here to take out XJ-R and HIP 10118 earlier in Week 1 if it looks like it'll need a Week 3 or if Alerts getting through this week ends up troublesome)

Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1

As an aside, this shows that spire sites can be fought to completion normally at the Alert stage, which isn't critical this time as AQ-P b5-0 is ready to go anyway, but will potentially make things a lot easier later.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Indeed a weekly 66–70% ought to be a good target while collapsing a Maelstrom; something like 50% was reasonable without Matrix systems in the periphery, but a common practice of 66% avoids Matrix congestion and fights the new strength changes a bit.

Considering the steep empty Alert increase a bit:

• Speaking more for the Maelstroms where we have more previous investment, I think it quite fine to leave some Alerts at M. Thor and M. Cocijo, and those in unimportant directions at M. Hadad. It may even be necessary, lest Frontier interprets their clearance as another increase being needed¹.
• Given that M. Raijin has a bit of periphery support, there may be value in letting it repair some of its punctures so that Alerts end up being boosted in future.
• A one-week completion at M. Leigong could be important due to Alerts—the worry is that HIP 29226 is upcoming next week at M. Hadad, and Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-0 the week after it.

For Alerts everywhere, I think the best outcome is a one-week Final Ten at M. Leigong, INIV adopting M. Hadad to put those strong systems back onto a six-week cycle, plus Spire sieges to erode M. Hadad eventually.

1. If Frontier wanted 23% fewer empty Control systems cleared, I would have been much happier with being asked to spend 23% less time rather than meet 30% higher strength.

 

[Kira Goto]

those in unimportant directions at M. Hadad.

I think that this might be a sensible idea(one that I’ve had for a while, but not sure if I brought it up), providing they are not candidates for potential spire site implantation. What should we care if the Thargoids claim an uninhabited system facing away from the Bubble and toward nowhere important(or other populated space), where none of the planets or moons hold a thin atmosphere?

If it needs to be cleared to isolate or ‘neutralize’ a Titan at any point, it can just be taken out then(or if periphery clearance requires it removed), I’d imagine. Especially if it is distant from the Titan and as a result, easier to clear out.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

What should we care if the Thargoids claim an uninhabited system facing away from the Bubble and toward nowhere important(or other populated space), where none of the planets or moons hold a thin atmosphere?

Excepting the new observation regarding Spire site candidates, really that notion echoes back from adopting M. Hadad originally, where we would guard away systems on our spatial side such as Ahol and H Puppis. Based on the Alert rules, the only Thargoid option became to expand backwards or towards the Coalsack, and I recall fondly the good @Ian Doncaster referring to M. Hadad as becoming egg-shaped!

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Yes. In practice distorting a Maelstrom out of spherical in the long-term can itself also be costly - for a trivial example, holding Wakata at HIP 23716, or Njorog, added a massive amount of effort to that required to stop Taranis regaining ground. And in those particular cases enough people found doing so fun that it wasn't a big deal for the overall war.

Eventually Hadad got to the point where its perimeter was largely always attacking systems on the pointy end of the egg.

The risk of letting them have unimportant uninhabited systems while continuing to defend inhabited or otherwise important ones is that eventually the Maelstrom's entire perimeter consists of systems we (collectively) won't let them have. But the understandable desire to fight Invasions whenever they occur means that there's no possibility of e.g. agreeing "in the interests of balancing workload, let's just let Maelstrom X get back out to 25 LY uncontested and then easily hold it there". There's also the indirect risk that letting them do that means the Maelstrom spends almost all its time in internal targeting mode, which means there's no chance of saving 1 Alert/week sometimes from it switching to external mode. Though the average alert difficulty is lower, so 5 easier vs 4 harder might still be worth it.

As a short-term one-off where the trade off is the permanent shutdown of another Maelstrom, that doesn't apply so much.

It is also the case that a shutdown attempt in itself - with that rolling reduction of the perimeter - can temporarily reduce Alerts. Leigong should have none this coming week, for example. As Aleks has said above, the disadvantage is that once you start you really have to commit to seeing it through pretty much no matter what, because stopping early will leave some extremely strong Alerts in future.

 

[Kira Goto]

‘Shutting down’ a Titan also carries the potential risk of not knowing if or when it might/will spontaneously ‘reactivate’ and attempt to retake systems around it, as the Titan is clearly remaining active. Say, Taranis, if it decided to start being unruly again on Thursday, would likely invalidate a rather significant effort to get it to this state in the first place.

(And there is no telling if Swahku’s recovery state would protect it from such an event. Even if it did… the moment it undergoes alert, that’s almost certainly just a lost cause. At least if this occurred with Leigong, its initial capture radius ‘only’ included uninhabited systems, if it went by the same rules as arrival.)

But if the Thargoid expansion goes Bubble ward with an alert, I see little reason not to oppose that, except high-difficulty ones not worth keeping.

Now Hadad, I could see reason to attempt holding Omumba or HR 2204. But Montioch? Single outpost at 13 ly? As doomed as Swahku if I’m to judge its chances of living through an invasion.

 

[Ralph Vargr]

I'm quite impressed with the results of what the AX players have been able to accomplish, along with the haulers.

Can two monsters be shut down? That will be quite the effort.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Col 285 Sectors SH-B b14-2, KW-M c7-31, RM-B b14-8 and PM-B b14-3, Arietis Sectors AQ-P b5-0, KM-W c1-14 and WJ-R b4-2, Obassi Osaw and Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4!

That completes the planned Control systems at M. Leigong this week, becoming a Final Ten scenario next week; from there, a few more percent for the Spire at Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 to reach 66% would indeed keep it on a rolling completion path, increasing the value of getting another only two-thirds next week. It adds also a little more for HIP 7277, as it happens! In the meantime INIV may be available later this evening to help a bit with Alerts, where at that time it could be helpful to know about any Carriers with purchase orders or systems which are accounted already.

The M. Indra periphery is now affecting only three middling empty Control systems, plus Scythia and briefly HIP 21261; if Commanders wanted HIP 22524 and Lei Hsini, now is the time. Speaking of empty Control systems, we have found that the shape has changed a bit with HIP 8033 projecting 37045, an increase closer to 40%. It is still unknown whether the 5-Ly junction is now stronger than inhabited Control.

Peripheries at 06:30 28th November 3309:
One matrix system with 62% — Leigong 15 Ly
Three systems with 60% — Indra 19–20 Ly, 487–661 strength

Alerts:
HIP 21261 Alert 82% — Indra 20 Ly, 18 Ls outpost, 285 Ls planet, Peripheral system
HIP 7277 Alert 68% *69.3% — Leigong 17 Ly, 580 Ls outpost, 152 Ls planet, Peripheral system
Trailing slightly:
Nu Guang Alert 58% *59.1% — Raijin 19 Ly, 44 Ls starport, 1040 Ls outpost, 44 Ls planet
Scythia Alert 56% — Indra 20 Ly, 270k Ls outpost, Peripheral system
Trailing:
HIP 18075 Alert 36% *37.7% — Thor 21 Ly, 1620 Ls outpost, 2826 Ls planet, Peripheral system
Vistnero Alert 18% *18.3% — Raijin 21 Ly, 147 Ls starport, 521 Ls outpost, 147 Ls planet
Mahlina Alert 12% *12.4% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 224 Ls outpost, Peripheral system
HIP 20577 Alert 12% *12.2% — Indra 18 Ly, 123 Ls outpost, 169 Ls planet

Evictions:
HIP 22524 Control 84% *85.5% — Indra 20 Ly, 663 strength
Lei Hsini Control 84% — Indra 21 Ly, 632 strength

Clean-up:
Arietis Sector FG-Y d38 Alert 84% *85% — Leigong 20 Ly
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-2 Alert 84% — Leigong 21 Ly
Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 Matrix 62% — Leigong 15 Ly

I'm quite impressed with the results of what the AX players have been able to accomplish, along with the haulers.
Can two monsters be shut down? That will be quite the effort.

Thank you! Also eventually, yes—the ideal outcome is that many, many Commanders join to help besiege HIP 9180 and let us finish M. Leigong next week, however:

• Just to have a decent chance of a periphery completion, said Commanders need to be aware of the much greater value of striking at M. Leigong and be asked very, very nicely for some help.
• Given the Alert strength increase we may get some Invasions, which will be sure to move attention away. A couple of Invasions would not be mutually exclusive with clearing a Matrix system necessarily, just much less likely.

Luckily it is not quite so critical to complete M. Leigong quickly as it was for M. Taranis; a good Spire turnout will still let us clear away much of it. For example, another two-thirds peripheral progress and diverting our attention to HIP 8033 could leave it with only HIP 9180 and Arietis Sector ZE-R b4-3 remaining, with only one attack coming from the former.

Having considered it now, I think I like that outcome!

Additional: Or Arietis Sector YE-R b4-1, which has similar strength and is equally unable to attack for a while, but can recapture Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 if we need that to occur.

 

[Shayan al Nasarwa]

Maybe we can gather some commanders to do some harvesting jobs in the remaining alerts...

 

[Kira Goto]

Maybe we can gather some commanders to do some harvesting jobs in the remaining alerts...

Just clear those which have only a single outpost(especially Scythia), I’d say. If the Leigong plan is fine to execute over two weeks(if not more), allowing an invasion or two to let other people have fun in(I doubt all of them are currently massacring Orthrus around spires), in easily defensible systems, shouldn’t lead to anything amiss.

I certainly don’t see the situation warranting a serious response to where stopping all inhabited alerts is a necessity. And it might provide a better observation buffer to determine if locking Leigong down entirely is actually worth doing, seeing the response that was had to this at Taranis.

 

[Shayan al Nasarwa]

Just clear those which have only a single outpost(especially Scythia), I’d say. If the Leigong plan is fine to execute over two weeks(if not more), allowing an invasion or two to let other people have fun in(I doubt all of them are currently massacring Orthrus around spires), in easily defensible systems, shouldn’t lead to anything amiss.

Oh sorry, I meant those alerts around Leigong. Yesterday we did some spire site action there but this seems to be enough for the moment.

 

[Kira Goto]

Oh sorry, I meant those alerts around Leigong. Yesterday we did some spire site action there but this seems to be enough for the moment.

Ah. I had the impression you(and Aleks above) meant the alert situation in general, as it looks like a few will slip through to go on to invasion.

But the current pace looks like it’d be fine for alert clearance around Leigong in general, with maybe only HIP 7277 slipping the net(and that’s a big maybe).

Point about Scythia does still stand. Nobody is going to fight a 270k ls cruise, one outpost invasion. It makes Jeng look like a walk in the park.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Oh sorry, I meant those alerts around Leigong. Yesterday we did some spire site action there but this seems to be enough for the moment.

Goodness; thank you! If you are attacking HIP 7277 at present and it survives, we can continue there after you leave it for today. With the empty Alerts finished here, I am considering a jump over to Mahlina in the meantime, albeit without knowledge of whether anyone is operating there or how quickly deliveries will complete it.

Point about Scythia does still stand. Nobody is going to fight a 270k ls cruise, one outpost invasion.

Careful with logic there—if nobody is going to fight an Invasion there, that means nobody is distracted by it, so we should leave it alone! Luckily for anyone living in said Outpost, Kuruma is a counter-example¹; that is to say, such an Invasion will be fought.

1. Twice!

 

[Kira Goto]

Kuruma is a counter-example¹; that is to say, such an Invasion will be fought.

I’ve equally heard that it was a pretty big pain to keep it defended and eventually fell as a direct result of that.

And with there being a fair few invasions likely to pass through to Thursday, I don’t think/know if it would get its due during the active week. Although, of course, combat may still be more viable through the presence of Scythes and the interceptors they may call in around damaged ports*, if anyone is willing to brave the long trek.

*Providing Omumba was not a one off in that regard. We also don’t know if invasions had their own strength increased on the Friday last week. I think keeping it out of the invasion state in the first place may still be preferable.

They have their fans, yes, but certainly not as many as ground ports or - possibly - Coriolis and Orbis station defense. And while I do have an inclination to support less favored systems… alone, I can’t do much(unless I commit to sampling, which I’m afraid is too uninteresting for me).

Anyway, time will tell where it all goes from here. I don’t expect all 9 remaining populated alerts to go through nonetheless.

 

[Shayan al Nasarwa]

Goodness; thank you! If you are attacking HIP 7277 at present and it survives, we can continue there after you leave it for today. With the empty Alerts finished here, I am considering a jump over to Mahlina in the meantime, albeit without knowledge of whether anyone is operating there or how quickly deliveries will complete it.

HIP 7277 may be a final target for tomorrow. The two uninhabited alerts are done and in Scythia we sold 313 samples... but I guess HIP 7277 will be more important.

 

[Phill P]

HIP 7277 may be a final target for tomorrow. The two uninhabited alerts are done and in Scythia we sold 313 samples... but I guess HIP 7277 will be more important.

We're on target to at least clear all the unpopulated Alerts and will probably have a go at one or two of the worst populated ones. If you have a buy order for Scythia or plan to do more there let me know, we can at least help there, otherwise we will carry on with what you started.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

If HIP 7277 still needs attention, that will be better for us while we still have parking places reserved at HIP 9016—I am not sure what the strength will be, but if it is not accounted at the moment we can start striking it!