Considering that FDev made a point of "player driven narrative" for most of the life of Elite: Dangerous, the second of your points has a LOT more cause behind it. If FDev are moving away from that to a more structured or "story-driven" approach, then they should be more transparent about it.
Frontier don't really have enough consistency on that for there to be things to be transparent
about, though I would read the "Olav Redcourt" Galnet articles back in 2018 as an acknowledgement of the conflict between the two and a note that a purist "player-driven" approach is never going to be practical or desirable.
There's also not necessarily an automatic conflict between the two of them, if different mechanisms are used for both.
Powerplay and Colonisation provide player-driven ways for the galaxy to be changed, within certain limits. They don't provide a
narrative as such, of course. Even at the big picture statistical layer it's hard to describe much of a pattern of events. Players generally make pretty terrible protagonists.
CGs on the other hand provide a way for a more story-driven set of events to be delivered (though at the moment there isn't any particular underlying
story going on with them either)
In this case it's neither, of course: the CG has no
outcome other than personal rewards listed at all. See also the various Powerplay-themed CGs lately which have explicitly had no effect whatsoever on Powerplay itself (other than that caused indirectly by the CG bringing lots of players to particular systems)
Sometimes a goal ought to fail or be completed. Let the playerbase make the decision based on contribution.
Except that the contribution level submitted by players is extremely unpredictable. This CG is - with the first week still incomplete - at about double the previous record for any trade CG and approaching
ten times a typical amount. There have been just three previous trade CGs
ever where the weekly rate was high enough that a 500 MT target wouldn't comfortably last four weeks with plenty to spare.
Conversely there was one in 2023 which got just 6 million tonnes during the entire week - an amount this one clears in less than two hours at peak times and had beaten by 8pm on the Thursday - and which there were lots of people claiming at the time that despite it having a Tier 1 limit lower than any previous 2020-onwards trade CG's final outcome, Frontier must have "intended" it to fail.
Setting up CG tier limits which reasonably cover all cases between 10 million tonnes and 400 million tonnes per week is possible but makes actual success or failure almost impossible either way - the vast majority of CGs are going to fall in the bland "got about 50 million tonnes" region where neither failure nor full success was ever a plausible outcome.
(For non-trade CGs the complexity is greater: how much a bounty hunting CG gets not only depends on player interest but on the availability or otherwise of HazRES, megaship scenarios, etc. for the relevant factions. For unusual CG types there isn't a multi-year history of how previous ones went to draw on)
Frontier could perhaps be more clear that all CGs should unless otherwise stated be understood not to
have an actual limit - the removal of the text suggesting early ends as a possibility on this year's CGs does that but is a bit subtle - but the interface certainly works better if they don't put an infinitely large tier on to start with and pack all eight of the actually reachable ones into the bottom few pixels of the display.