Trading and the background simulation Issues [ Backwards Trading ]

Tunis

T
CTBM said:
NPC's are still trading too much IMO.

Make this a player economy not a NPC one. NPC's have the advantage because every systems prices are already available to them from anywhere.

while your discovering a new route, the NPC is getting a headstart on filling its bay, ruining it for everyone else.
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that's what is in the x serie (x3 didnt test rebirth) but it's not like this in elite. there are no npc in elite. just timer that modifie supply of station ;)

they just need to tweak the value of the modification or the time of the timer :) but the problems will still be here since it seem that the supply / trade timer is almost identical in time/value(before the fix it was too much on the trading side) so nothing will change in the coming day, maybe in the next few month. at least it's how i see it working.
 
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FX2K

FX2K
{SAS}Stalker said:
I said this in the other thread, I would like it to work like this (in a way);

1. A forth demand setting which is NONE where they simply refuse to buy it off you.
2. The AI trader / simulation should only kick in within a system when demand reaches high and shut down when demand drops to medium and it should be limited to the same constraints as we are (volume and time to destination).
3. Natural wastage of "demand" stock of around 10% per day (or similarly approved)
Click to expand...

I was expecting something like this to already be in, but perhaps hit by a bug or two so not working as designed.
It doesn't appear that way though, stations with no demand whatsoever will still buy from you so long as they have a "Sell to market" price.. perhaps they was hoping the price (being low) would dictate such a thing and in a lot of cases it does, but not all.

Example:
If you look at the bottom of the Berezin screenshot in the OP, Marine Equipment has no demand, its an industrial station, they make it right?
They will however pay you 3,956cr per tonne. That's only 106cr below GA.

If you bought it elsewhere for a great price, say '600cr below GA, then its a profitable place to sell it. It maybe not the most profitable especially in those stations, Olsen is, which is correct, but that means searching :p

I would have thought since they have no demand and have 68k's worth in supply (Medium) that they don't want your stuff, especially not for a fair price.. but they do.
 
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Zing Freelancer

Zing Freelancer
FX2K said:
This thread is not related to profits or making money like some other threads, this is about over-saturation and the background simulation.
I respectfully ask that you refrain from posting just to state how easy you can make money, Thanks.


Tonight I went to a random system and recorded the following information which highlights a few issues surrounding trading in the current release version of Elite Dangerous. I did not look hard for this, it is still the case in numerous systems.

I visited a system named PULARUNGU, an industrial system with a population of 4.4 million.
This system contains a station Berezin Enterprise and outpost Cixin Ring.
I noticed the error I had previously posted about whereby the system imports Liquor yet has a High Supply, in both stations.

Berezin:
HqdMUrx.png

Cixin:
OvVMedj.png

So, both stations have a HIGH supply of Liquor and a 0 LOW demand, they also show as importing this from Wakawal.
The galaxy map shows a trade route from Wakawal to Pularungu for Liquor.

So, I travelled to Wakawal an Agricultural/Industrial Economy and visited each station, it has three, only one of which is the supplier (supposedly).

Olsen Terminal: (Agri - supplier)
aLgUzY5.png

Virts Gateway: (industrial)
OJdEyQ1.png

Good Ring: (industrial)
tXTmQJU.png

Ok, so now the fun part... I apologise if I have missed anything or mis-calculated anything here (it is 3am after all)

The exporter - Olsen had MEDIUM supply.
The importer - Berezin and Cixin had HIGH supply

Buy from Olsen (The exporters) @ 535 cr per tonne
* Sell to Berezin or Cixin (where they export to) @ 455cr per tonne = 80cr loss per tonne.
* Sell to Virts: 666cr = 131cr profit per tonne.
* Sell to Good: 661cr = 126cr profit per tonne.


Buy from Berezin or Cixin (The importers) @ 475cr per tonne
* Sell to Olsen: 508cr = 33cr profit per tonne.
* Sell to Virts: 666cr = 191cr profit per tonne.
* Sell to Good: 661cr = 186cr profit per tonne.


1) Trading from supplier to consumer in a different system (following trade route - agricultural to industrial)
LOSS: 80cr per tonne

2) Trading from supplier to consumer in the same system (normal - agricultural to industrial)
PROFIT: 131cr per tonne

3) Trading from consumer to supplier (backwards industrial to agricultural)
PROFIT: 33cr per tonne.

4) Trading from consumer to consumer (industrial to industrial)
PROFIT: 191cr per tonne


Surely (1) should be more profitable than (3) or (4) in fact (3) and (4) should not exist IMO.
(2) is the only route which actually makes sense, but less profit than the alternative (4)


Here is the traffic report for one system, just for reference:

5fpQ4tR.png

I hope this gets fixed...this is not the only system or commodity like this.
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tumblr_inline_mq6r5oG43i1qz4rgp.gif

You are my hero commander.
 

Beermachine

B
Posted this in another thread but could be relevant to this also, so copied here
----------
While a different issue, I've managed by selling large quantities in 1 trade over the total demand amount (at a loss mind you, despite being a profit when trading only 1t, non lethal weapons is a good one to test this with due to low demand volume) to turn a demand station into a supplier (no stock produced, but supply stays at the new well below average price and just sits there until bought by a player).
----------
Perhaps this is also related to the problem, people trading and not checking their profit margin which is adjusted by the volume of cargo their carrying (and selling at cost / a loss and screwing up the economy details here https://forums.frontier.co.uk/showthread.php?t=78843). Should ticket this as well, but too old and far too many beta tests under my belt to bother now....
 

FX2K

FX2K
Zing Freelancer said:
You are my hero commander.
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I wouldn't go that far.... I do love that minion gif though ;)

Beermachine said:
Posted this in another thread but could be relevant to this also, so copied here

While a different issue, I've managed by selling large quantities in 1 trade over the total demand amount (at a loss mind you, despite being a profit when trading only 1t, non lethal weapons is a good one to test this with due to low demand volume) to turn a demand station into a supplier (no stock produced, but supply stays at the new well below average price and just sits there until bought by a player). ...snip..
Click to expand...

Was this in the release build? I posted about doing the same thing in post#4: https://forums.frontier.co.uk/showthread.php?t=78860&p=1282671&viewfull=1#post1282671
However, I did this pre-release.. When I checked back in the release version the supplies had risen, it was also a quiet area player wise seeing < 10 in 24 hours.
 
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Beermachine

B

Kayweg

Kayweg
Jagax said:
The commodity market is dynamic so it changes with the trading going on but the trade info seem to be set in stone.
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I'm beginning to doubt that, for the very reason you mention..."seems to be set in stone".
There seems to be no inter dependency between the goods you deliver and the subsequent goods output of the station for example.
Say you delivered hundreds and hundreds of tons of natural fabrics to a station, shouldn't that result in a higher output of clothing ?
Delivering big amounts of computer components and conductors should raise the output of consumer electronics and domestic appliances ?
If i repeatedly haul low supply platinum from an extraction outpost, shouldn't that outpost react to the demand ? Increase platinum production, and as a consequence decrease supply of other metals ?
From all i can tell, all numbers are just values pulled from a spreadsheet, there are no inter dependencies, consequences or a continuously calculating background simulation.
I suspect that's also the reason why we never see any volatility. High value commodities net high profits, low value only low profits, or has anyone for example ever seen Fruit and Vegetables suddenly pay a 1000 cr profit per ton, because a station hadn't received any for a long period ?
It's all perfectly straight and linear.
 

Grumbleweed

Grumbleweed
Great piece of work FX2K, great to hear the devs are finally looking into it.

I'd rep you again but it says I have to spread the love before I can ;)
 

Britannkic

Britannkic
Not sure how sophisticated the economics are in the game but a real life example that 'appears' absurd is Saudi Arabia, worlds largest oil reserves and exporter also imports a lot of oil, particularly Brent Crude from UK

Odd until you understand that the quality of Saudi crude is lower than Brent, and that Brent Crude is used to produce high grade industrial oils whilst saudi oil goes primarily to lower grade fuel supply

In Elite terms this would be represented as a high supply economy also importing the same commodity
 

RegisterMe

R
What would help is if FD explained to us how they think supply / demand, npc "trading activity", price sensitivity, and consumption should work. We can then try to reconcile that against what we actually experience in game. That could drive further experimentation / questions, which might help us help FD to fix it. There's no doubt in my mind that it's pretty thoroughly borked at the moment.
 

Tunis

T
CmdrSimonsen said:
Awesome.

And I personally prefer this sort of answer, instead of a walkthrough of how the AI is supposed to work, thus leaving something for us to ponder on +1 :D
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how do you think it work so?
all the npc you see in game are generated just for you they are not here if you are not ^^
we cant keep trace of something that we dont see. if the npc where trading we could folow them and see what they do to know how it seem to work but here it's just something on the server simulating something that we dont know.

we dont even know how supply in station work. does it is like for the rare 10min cd recharge x amount for y commodities? rince and repeat?

a game 10 year older has a better trading simulation than elite. where you could ruin some station if you intercept all the ships comming on her. in elite you cant the npc are just here to populated the space they are just idle in space.
 
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evoelise

evoelise
Britannkic said:
Not sure how sophisticated the economics are in the game but a real life example that 'appears' absurd is Saudi Arabia, worlds largest oil reserves and exporter also imports a lot of oil, particularly Brent Crude from UK

Odd until you understand that the quality of Saudi crude is lower than Brent, and that Brent Crude is used to produce high grade industrial oils whilst saudi oil goes primarily to lower grade fuel supply

In Elite terms this would be represented as a high supply economy also importing the same commodity
Click to expand...


This post hits the nail on the head for me.

Personally I think that the trading model should not make 100% sense - real life trading often doesn't make sense and having commodity prices, demand and supply all completely derivable will take a lot of risk - and therefore fun - out of trading.

I have no problem with a terminal with a large supply of Liquor still wishing to buy more. Maybe the system is planing a big party, maybe they produce a lot of "Brandy" but consume a lot of whisky that they can't make locally.

Despite the reported problems trading is by far the easiest way to make money in the game.
 
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