I wonder if EVE saw any kind of change in popularity lately? I've not followed closely and I don't know what kind of stats they put out, but I wouldn't expect an expanding interest in a very broad genre to really put a dent in them. If anything I would expect an increase and the new F2P addition may well have been a response to the expanding market.
It did, but not really from external causes. The only thing to ever have made a (very temporary) dent in EVE's population and activity is the release of much-anticipated AAA titles that take a while to get through. Skyrim and GTA5 showed up as ~10% two-week dips in online players. But once people were done, the numbers returned to normal.
For everything else, the explanation has been internal: Incarna, hulkageddon, ice interdiction, and most recently, just a slow decline as the game has gotten stale. CCP never seemed to grasp that conflict and adaptation was what kept the thing alive, so their dragging their heels on improving the creation of conflict (and even making conflict less likely) eventually reversed the steady rise they had had up until that point. On the down-slope, you rather see the opposite: population flares up occasionally as large wars erupt, but again, that's internal rather than any outside games influencing it.
The latest F2P announcement is more due to the sagging numbers, which again are internally caused, and so far, any potential gains from that have been hidden by the regular after-summer bump so it's hard to say if the announcement has made any difference.
Until you can show me CIG monthly expenditures it's just wishful thinking, coming from you that is.
Their monthly expenditures have been amply analysed and explained. That's why I set the $3M as a (pretty unlikely) lower bound. So no, the only wishful thinking here is your wishing that the facts didn't add up to this very obvious conclusion.