Siege of Sol in 315 days - Least Square Regression Analysis of Recent Thargoid Attacks

EpicHam

EpicHam
With the recent Thargoid attacks pushing deeper and deeper into human space I decided to do some math. By doing a least-square regression analysis of the 12 stations attacked to date and their distance to Sol, I've calculated that the at the current rate Thargoid will reach Sol at day 366.988. However notice the most recenet attack data, outlier Asami Orbital, Pleiades Sector JC-V D2-62 which is only 291.29ly from Sol. The Thargoid attack seems to be accelerating in their push towards the Cradle of Humanity. It is entirely possible we might see Sol under siege within 100 days. My work is below:

Data: 15 DEC 3303 (day 1) Titan's Daughter in the Taygeta system, Liman Legacy in HIP 16753, and the Oracle in the Pleiades Sector IR-W d1-55

23 DEC 3303 (day 8) Hudson Observatory in HIP 17694, Cavalieri in Electra and Bao Landing in HIP 17497

13 JAN 3304 (day 29) Reed's Rest in Merope and Obsidian Orbital in Maia are the latest starports to be targeted by the Thargoids.

26 JAN 3304 (day 42) Kipling Orbital in the Pleiades Sector KC-V C2-11 and Malthus Terminal in the Pleiades Sector HR-W D1-41

4 FEB 3304 (day 51) Asami Orbital, Pleiades Sector JC-V D2-62 Cleaver Prospect, Pleiades Sector HR-W d1-57

Day 366 SOL.

LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION LINE FOR THE GIVEN DATA n = 12 DATA PAIRS

y = ax + b

a = -1.0857322214587 b = 398.43945266794 = Y-Intercept

y = -1.0857322214587x + 398.43945266794

Line Angle Relative to X-Axis: -47.353768522443° = -0.82647917394389 rad

X Y Data Table 1,409.26 1,399.25 1,357.20 8,378.41 8,404.70 8,391.57 29,380.17 29,383.31 42,379.77 42,374.12 51,337.99 51,291.29

SumX = 271 SumY = 4487.04 SumXY = 96460.73 SumXX = 10607 SumYY = 1689523.3496
 
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Steyla

Steyla
First they have to get out of their silly USS's, like every other NPC, or they will never be a real thread.


Fly/land/fight safe.


CMDR Steyla
 

dreampage

dreampage
I'm still waiting for Frontier to create something real out of the Thargoids beyond pew-pew. I'd like to see their bases in action, their systems, space stations. I'd like to see the Guardians making an appearance at last, to have their systems as well. I want to interact with the aliens in other ways not just shooting at them. And instead of Frontier deliberately destroying and disabling more and more stations they should - in my opinion - flesh out the game some more. They should also understand disabled stations will probably never be repaired because there are not enough interested players to haul enough commodities to do so. So the devs are effectively decreasing the play area by creating unusable stations. This Thargoid "war" was interesting for a while but it's really not going anywhere in my view. I checked them out myself but I don't need more shooting targets. When I'll be able to interact with them in new ways I'll be happy to do so.
 

Raino

Raino
since friday there have been 5 hyperdictions to my wing

1 half way out to maia, aprox 150Ly/Sol
1 in between
3 deep in Li Yong-Rui area
 

Cmdr-Wotherspoon

Cmdr-Wotherspoon
dreampage said:
I'm still waiting for Frontier to create something real out of the Thargoids beyond pew-pew. I'd like to see their bases in action, their systems, space stations. I'd like to see the Guardians making an appearance at last, to have their systems as well. I want to interact with the aliens in other ways not just shooting at them. And instead of Frontier deliberately destroying and disabling more and more stations they should - in my opinion - flesh out the game some more. They should also understand disabled stations will probably never be repaired because there are not enough interested players to haul enough commodities to do so. So the devs are effectively decreasing the play area by creating unusable stations. This Thargoid "war" was interesting for a while but it's really not going anywhere in my view. I checked them out myself but I don't need more shooting targets. When I'll be able to interact with them in new ways I'll be happy to do so.
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I seems likely that with the introduction of a Thargoid and Guardian civilisation filter on the galaxy map we'll start to get a clearer picture of these ancient civilisations over the coming year.

Almost all the stations that have been attacked by Thargoids were opened fairly recently to allow the Aegis expansion into the Pleiades. If the attacks start getting closer to the Homeworlds, we'll need to stop sitting on the sidelines, decide which stations we want to protect, and roll our sleeves up. The work required to repair a station may change, but the basic mechanic is established.
 

Enrogue

Enrogue
Nice work. Interesting.

Waiting to see how it all plays out. Very interested in working for new clients.
 

Enrogue

Enrogue
Zebaoth said:
  • Thursday downtime
  • Sol under attack
  • 3-4 CGs
  • Thursday downtime
  • Sol stations evac CG
  • 2 months later Krait CG
  • Thursday downtime
  • Krait released
  • 3-4 CGs to push thargoids out of the bubble
  • Thursday downtime
  • Thargoids now gone
  • Everyone hype for frontier expo to reveal 4.X
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That's not what I meant. I mean it will be interesting to see to which extent you can ally yourself with Goids and what you can get from them.

Everything's pointless repetition but that differs from anything else by in virtually no sense. All that fills the existence is a gaping void of unmeaning.
 

Leadfoot

Leadfoot
Leave a listening post at stars about 20 ly out from Sol with the message:

Attention: If you are heading to Sol 3 (formerly known as "Earth" to the local population), please be advised that the planet you are looking for has been disconnected or is no longer in service. It has been destroyed by a Vogon Constructor fleet in order to make way for a hyperspace by-pass. All the people of Sol 3 (formerly known as Earth) have been removed to a location known as Rigel 7. Please forward all mail there. We apologize for the inconvenience. Message IM1 RU12.
 
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Goose4291

Banned
Goose4291
Cmdr-Wotherspoon said:
I seems likely that with the introduction of a Thargoid and Guardian civilisation filter on the galaxy map we'll start to get a clearer picture of these ancient civilisations over the coming year.

Almost all the stations that have been attacked by Thargoids were opened fairly recently to allow the Aegis expansion into the Pleiades. If the attacks start getting closer to the Homeworlds, we'll need to stop sitting on the sidelines, decide which stations we want to protect, and roll our sleeves up. The work required to repair a station may change, but the basic mechanic is established.
Click to expand...

Yep. It's going to be interesting to see the faux-intellectual 'explorer' community moaning about how "it's not the thargoids fault" when they invade Sol, and how anyone who comes to the defence is a pvp bro-force, horribad person in real life.
 

Mohrgan

Mohrgan
Goose4291 said:
Yep. It's going to be interesting to see the faux-intellectual 'explorer' community moaning about how "it's not the thargoids fault" when they invade Sol, and how anyone who comes to the defence is a pvp bro-force, horribad person in real life.
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Tears well up, whenever someone mentions the plight of those PvP bro-force, horribad persons in real life. Lol. This persecution complex some have, is monkey wrenched into every conversation. I wonder why they expect those greedy shieldless traders to get a thicker skin, when they expose their crepe-like skin to everyone?

Ah well, I suppose that is just another mystery for the ages...
 
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ZeroAi

ZeroAi
I'm not too worried, not even Thargoids NPCs can land on Earth, the Moon, Mars, etc.

:-D

damon8r351 said:
We'll stop em at Wolf 359.
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GunnerBill said:
And if we don't... ragtag fleet awaits humanity!
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OHMSS said:
We'll need Galactica and lots of turrets
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Leadfoot said:
Leave a listening post at stars about 20 ly out from Sol with the message:

Attention: If you are heading to Sol 3 (formerly known as "Earth" to the local population), please be advised that the planet you are looking for has been disconnected or is no longer in service. It has been destroyed by a Vogon Constructor fleet in order to make way for a hyperspace by-pass. All the people of Sol 3 (formerly known as Earth) have been removed to a location known as Rigel 7. Please forward all mail there. We apologize for the inconvenience. Message IM1 RU12.
Click to expand...

Awesome Star Trek / Battlestar / HGTG references!
 

Ouberos

Ouberos
Mohrgan said:
Tears well up, whenever someone mentions the plight of those PvP bro-force, horribad persons in real life. Lol. This persecution complex some have, is monkey wrenched into every conversation. I wonder why they expect those greedy shieldless traders to get a thicker skin, when they expose their crepe-like skin to everyone?

Ah well, I suppose that is just another mystery for the ages...
Click to expand...

Err, I think that was satire you mistook for sincerity.

Projection much?
 
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