Game's future
- Thread starter BluStar
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My only issue with your analysis, regardless of the conclusion of ED dying or not, is that decreased play time per player isn't a negative indicator in itself.
It might also be argued from the steam data that the game peaked early.
The console releases have almost certainly thrown off growth but steam should still reflect renewed interest from updates. So if anything the data suggests it's generally the same people playing as a representative sample, I do agree with you there.
I'd doubt the game is dying. Even though the OP post refers to a recent decline in peak players, it's just that, a recent decline where for the most part the graphs have been cyclical and maintaining. In fact, the upturn for the beginning of 2018 was one of the higher extended positive slopes, breaking highs from the previous year before that. Yes, NMS-Next scored a big upturn which correspondingly deflated ED's graph within the same time period due to some seeking perceived "greener pastures" on the "other side". But overall, the steamcharts representation would be a lot worse if ED was truly dying, more like if ED dropped below all the other space genre games or headed south of the top 500. Some naysaying would like to call this point the "beginning of the end", but I just don't feel that. There are too many signs of renewed commitment and hints by Frontier of ED, new hirings, success of Frontier as an emerging public small cap with JWE , which means more resources can be afforded to ED dev or cross-dev in the future.
Beyond was already outlined last year at FrontierExpo, and FDev have pleasantly surprised with some extra ships and the guardian fsd boost across the board. But for the most part, all of Beyond's chapters were already outlined and ED was primarily said to receive QoL updates for the entirety of 2018. Acknowledged there is saltiness and disappointment in places such as the yt comments, but it just shows besides the trolling and bashing for fun, some comments are just driven by worn patience and not an actual dying of interest in the game no matter players' varied perceptions of its current state. Players will still return for Beyond Q4, and for whatever new updates are in store for season 2019, and new players continue to discover ED and enjoy the current sim & gameplay for their first few hundred hours at least.
Beyond was already outlined last year at FrontierExpo, and FDev have pleasantly surprised with some extra ships and the guardian fsd boost across the board. But for the most part, all of Beyond's chapters were already outlined and ED was primarily said to receive QoL updates for the entirety of 2018. Acknowledged there is saltiness and disappointment in places such as the yt comments, but it just shows besides the trolling and bashing for fun, some comments are just driven by worn patience and not an actual dying of interest in the game no matter players' varied perceptions of its current state. Players will still return for Beyond Q4, and for whatever new updates are in store for season 2019, and new players continue to discover ED and enjoy the current sim & gameplay for their first few hundred hours at least.
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For those wondering if E:D's drop in steam players is related to steam becoming less popular, or E:D becoming less popular, here is a graph of E:D's players divided by the total steam players online at the time. Should help compensate for more/less people using steam and whatnot.
Still probably not a perfect picture of the total E:D playerbase, but it's probably the best we are going to get and compensates for the fact that the number of steam users (and possibly PC gamers as a whole) has fluctuated.
(for anyone interested, I downloaded the data from here and made the graph via excel)
Still probably not a perfect picture of the total E:D playerbase, but it's probably the best we are going to get and compensates for the fact that the number of steam users (and possibly PC gamers as a whole) has fluctuated.
(for anyone interested, I downloaded the data from here and made the graph via excel)
No, it doesn't show that. Just read the thread that I linked.
30+ years is old? You either lack perspective or you'll be old far too soon. I hope for your sake that is is the first and not the latter, because otherwise you would be missing out from some of the best in life.
BTW, 30+ year old players were not born or were toddlers when the first ELITE was released. So there IS hope for you, as it indeed seems to be a lack of perspective.
Things will be better when you have some maturity, I promise.
I am getting bored repeating myself but the graph in OP is basically a fake. It's a flaw in how Steamcharts presents data. Just look at the first 3/4 which is a flat curve and the last 1/4 which is spiked. This clearly indicates that the first 3/4 only consist of a few data points (you can easily check this by going there yourself and hover your mouse over it) while the last quarter is more detailed. Since the graph only shows peak players instead of average players (which is completely stupid anyway) this creates the illusion of a steady decline. Which never happened.
I am not disagreeing here, less time spend in game clearly indicates that people aren't fully satisfied. But that's not what I am arguing against, I do agree that the game needs more content, features and bug fixes. What I don't like is when people use faked data to support their claim that the game is dying.
I'll try it again for those who are really too dense to understand simple logic:
Look at the first half of the graph. Flat line.
Look at the second half of the graph. Spiked line.
What does that tell us? Fewer data points in the first half. More data points in the second half.
And now comes the worst part:
The entire curve in the first half of the graph is made up and never happened since it only exists because of one single day, which was the Horizons launch. There was no steady decline in players, it all happened in one single day. Lots of people logged in to try the new update and lots of people logged out after it. The same just happened to NMS and every other game out there. It doesn't tell us anything about the active player base of the game and it doesn't tell us anything about trends. And this is why using false data and peak numbers is bad.
Look at the first half of the graph. Flat line.
Look at the second half of the graph. Spiked line.
What does that tell us? Fewer data points in the first half. More data points in the second half.
And now comes the worst part:
The entire curve in the first half of the graph is made up and never happened since it only exists because of one single day, which was the Horizons launch. There was no steady decline in players, it all happened in one single day. Lots of people logged in to try the new update and lots of people logged out after it. The same just happened to NMS and every other game out there. It doesn't tell us anything about the active player base of the game and it doesn't tell us anything about trends. And this is why using false data and peak numbers is bad.
It's not about white knights or black knights, it's about understanding what is written in front of you.
Some seem to have major issues with it or deliberately try to skew or interoperate them to further what ever agenda they have.
You can tell when a game is dead, no-one plays it any more. Clearly that is not the case with ED.
It would be better to ignore this type of thread as it would then certainly die for lack of interest.
It would be better to ignore this type of thread as it would then certainly die for lack of interest.
I think this part of Dover Beach by Matthew Arnold sums up everything here:
Don't be such a spoilsport it's become a weekly tradition over the last four years.
Holy...It's logic, everyone. We've discovered a unicorn here! It's logic on the internet!
Achilles7
Banned
Wow! This metaphor was spluttering along in a relatively intelligible - albeit unimaginative & clunky - manner....until the utterly bizarre choice of "appendicitis" as a negative characteristic, that is!
Anyone else gaped at their partner's appendicitis lately?
Ahh - all of you! 'Forgot where I was for a second! Never mind...as you were!
Thought I'd come and mine some salt but couldn't find any!
Old people (insert age range here) aren't allowed to play games or know what makes a good game? Bit spurious, you only want to play a game that looks nice on a graph? Well if that's your bag baby, like BK have it your way.
When all the naysayers and doom merchants finally leave, and no-one said this yet, on behalf of all of us still playing and enjoying this fine game, deep breath, "Can we has your stuff!"
Old people (insert age range here) aren't allowed to play games or know what makes a good game? Bit spurious, you only want to play a game that looks nice on a graph? Well if that's your bag baby, like BK have it your way.
When all the naysayers and doom merchants finally leave, and no-one said this yet, on behalf of all of us still playing and enjoying this fine game, deep breath, "Can we has your stuff!"
As someone once said
'There are lies, damn lies & statistics' (although I then include) politicians.
Drivel like this is spewed out all the time, using extremely limited criteria in it's findings, to try & prove what the author wants YOU to believe.
You can make charts & graphs do/show anything you want, depending on what you include or exclude.
The game's future still looks good as long as FD are commited to developing it, however good or bad that development is.
'There are lies, damn lies & statistics' (although I then include) politicians.
Drivel like this is spewed out all the time, using extremely limited criteria in it's findings, to try & prove what the author wants YOU to believe.
You can make charts & graphs do/show anything you want, depending on what you include or exclude.
The game's future still looks good as long as FD are commited to developing it, however good or bad that development is.
Footrest dented from stamping, canopy cracked by repeated dummy impact, cabin decompressing due to discarded teddy bear jamming the bulkhead door open and everything thoroughly corroded by salt.
They can keep it.
This made me giggle. *sigh* I'm so old.
I never played the original Elite. My family didn't have the money for a PC back in 1984.
Achilles7
Banned
Stop throwing yourself at your ship's canopy, then!
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