A lot of people are projecting some kind of emotional reasoning as to why FDev made this decision. That is, of course, absurd, because FDev is not a person, it is not even a collection of people; it is a
corporation and its
sole reason to exist is to make money. Period. Whatever dimensions or factors involved in their decision, it all comes down to the bottom line, guaranteed.
Now that that's settled, we can debate on what the dimensions and factors
could be that led to their decision.
The forums? Nah, they couldn't care less about the forums, because forum activity does not correlate at all with the bottom line.
What does correlate to the bottom line?
Well, as a matter of reporting and capital procurement, it all comes down to active players. Active players = potential revenue. So, since it's fair to say the September update must have had some kind of influence on this decision, it's also fair to say that it may have cost a statistically significant drop in active players
or an unexpectedly
low increase in (even temporary) active players. Actual public numbers could back this up, but those are unreliable either way IMO (and don't speak to whatever statistics FDev are actually using, to whatever granularity). I can at least say for myself that this is the first update where I didn't at least fire the game up and fly around a bit - I just looked at how the Arx works and left. Considering the September update was clearly meant to attract new players (with the new tutorial/intro system) as well as encourage existing players to play more (to earn Arx) I am going to go out on a limb and assume it did little of either.
I only have the game on PC so I don't pay much attention to how the game operates on the consoles, but I'm going to assume the update was as bad for them as for those of us on PC. This adds another dimension because if a game is buggy enough the game publisher/developer can start getting pressure from the console maker to shape up (this used to be hard-and-fast, especially with Sony). We will never know if that was the case here, but it's certainly possible.
How about the question of delaying FC's? Wouldn't having them in for Christmas help the bottom line? This is where the technical side may well play a part, and the reality of the delay may well have been known long, long ago. It also may speak to the reality of how much the "die-hards" play, and how much they may have
increased their play in anticipation of having to spend billions on an FC. From what I gather the bugs in the September Update made it much more difficult to mine-grind, so that probably is an ugly graph to present to the shareholders if they had a spike
before the update, and the update
killed it.
The weirdest/funniest thing about all this is that FDev continues to maintain that the 2020 year-end update is still fully on track. How the hell is that possible if the bug fixes will push back FC's? IMO there are only a handful of possibilities:
- The 2020 update is, in fact, still on track and FDev will fix a ton of bugs: To me this implies that 2020 update will be massively underwhelming, because an update of any significance cannot possibly be unaffected by the changes that will come in the code base (physically and temporally).
- The 2020 update is on track, and FDev will fix a whole lot less bugs than they're letting on: This is quite possible and wouldn't surprise me one bit.
- The 2020 update is already delayed, they're just not saying so: IMO, the most likely scenario.
- The 2020 update is on track, the bugs are going to be fixed pretty quickly (but released on delay), but the aforementioned spike enjoyed after the "FC Billions Grind Rush" is going to be milked for a few more months. This is also quite possible, and would be in keeping with how FDev operates.
It's also funny that the only thing they use to entice us as to the potential of the 2020 update is that it is going to cost money - implying that we
will want to pay for it. No enticing us with potential game play, not even teasing. I'll leave that aside until they do actually tell us something about it, but it's funny to see the "paid" aspect mentioned every time it's brought up (by them).
At the end of the day I'm not overly surprised by any of this, I mean I have been around since release so it really is in keeping with FDev's M.O. I am interested to see what the 2020 update actually is, but I'm not holding my breath over it.