General / Off-Topic The safest place

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Boris Johnson just announced new measures, which for all practical purposes amounts to a full lockdown. We'll be permitted to leave the house for food shopping, and exercise once a day, but that's it. Essential work will be permitted, but all other work places will be closed.

Not quite as draconian as on the continent, but I suspect more than a few people will get themselves arrested!

How could you abandon us?! Now us Duchies are alone in our reckless refusal of stringent measures. :cry:
 
Boris Johnson just announced new measures, which for all practical purposes amounts to a full lockdown. We'll be permitted to leave the house for food shopping, and exercise once a day, but that's it. Essential work will be permitted, but all other work places will be closed.

Not quite as draconian as on the continent, but I suspect more than a few people will get themselves arrested!
It was just a matter of time. We'll all be spending a great deal of time indoors this spring. Once that decree goes out in my state, I'm going to volunteer for any critical positions where there's a manpower shortage, be that stocking store shelves, keeping the waste treatment plant operational, walking dogs at the Humane Shelter etc. Whatever is needed.
 
Boris Johnson just announced new measures, which for all practical purposes amounts to a full lockdown. We'll be permitted to leave the house for food shopping, and exercise once a day, but that's it. Essential work will be permitted, but all other work places will be closed.

Not quite as draconian as on the continent, but I suspect more than a few people will get themselves arrested!

He didnt have much choice to be honest, after he tried appealing to peoples better nature they proved they don't have one.

It'll make no difference to those of us who paid attention anyway.
 
Really? I just thought it was us Brits being reckless?

Nope. We now have an 'intelligent lockdown' (and please ignore how needlessly offensive this is towards the other lockdowns around the world). It means we are in 'voluntary lockdown'. You are not to leave the house unless you 1) go to work, 2) go for buying essential supplies such as food, 3) go for a brief walk outside, or 4) just dont care. The PM acknowledged 4) is a bit daft, so he encouraged all of us not to be a silly goose. But if you do want to be silly, well, who would the police be to argue against that?

Also, mayors are now allowed to ban public gatherings on beaches and parks and such, if they feel like it. And if not that is cool too, you know. Gatherings of more than three people where individuals do not keep more than 1.5m can be fined in these areas, but maybe we won't. I mean, lets not be too strict about such matters. In the last six days 50% of our ICUs have been filled and the rate of hospitalization is exponentially increasing. We're expected to be fully booked in a few days, a week top. So plenty of time to have a cup of tea and think about it so more.

And these are the super hardcore new measures announced two hours ago.
 
Nope. We now have an 'intelligent lockdown' (and please ignore how needlessly offensive this is towards the other lockdowns around the world). It means we are in 'voluntary lockdown'. You are not to leave the house unless you 1) go to work, 2) go for buying essential supplies such as food, 3) go for a brief walk outside, or 4) just dont care.

If point 4) is what makes it intelligent, that's quite the oxymoron.
 

The interesting bit is the opening sentence:
A prominent 30-year-old television journalist has died in Zimbabwe after contracting the new coronavirus infection, the first person to die in the country from the virus.

An alternative explanation is that rather than the very first victim just happening to be a local celebrity, the disease is being woefully untested for. Also:

Makamba contracted the disease while he was in New York and was in isolation at Wilkins hospital, Harare's only isolation facility.
China sending emergency funds to Europe, the US infecting Africa; truly this is a remarkable time to be alive.
 

The interesting bit is the opening sentence:


An alternative explanation is that rather than the very first victim just happening to be a local celebrity, the disease is being woefully untested for. Also:


China sending emergency funds to Europe, the US infecting Africa; truly this is a remarkable time to be alive.

But isn't this the virus which only kills the elderly? Uh oh, so much for that!
 

Deleted member 38366

D
To be clear: as far as viruses go, this one is pretty mild. It scores a disappointing '2' when it comes to how contagious it is, and its lethality is profoundly underwhelming. I mean, I would expect a Chinese high-grade bioweapon to do better than this: https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/22/95-y...est-woman-italy-recover-coronavirus-12438267/

As for how likely it is to emerge from a Chinese food market? Well, likely enough that a Chinese food market is explicitly suggested in a book I have about zoonosis from 2012. More generally speaking China is the country where you expect this to happen, to the point that when CDC funding was cut it mentioned China first when listing the problematic regions in 2018: https://globalhealth.duke.edu/media/news/op-ed-odds-devastating-pandemic-just-went

Heck, even ignoring the cultural elements promoting extensive contacts between humans and well-known reservoir animals (some specifically known to be reservoir hosts to corona viruses!), even if you know nothing about Chinese culture or zoonosis or any of this whatsoever, it would still be your most likely bet: 20% of the worlds population lives in China, they have 15 of the 50 largest metropoles on the planet, most of it is in climates very conducive to viruses (which is also the climate humans tend to appreciate) and so on. I mean, come on: how likely do you think it is that a new corona virus emerges in the same region as another (SARS) did a few years ago. That is not a coincidence, but it is not a conspiracy either.

It is part nature, part negligence. Mind you, I am not ruling things out definitely, but such conspiracies would be way, way down on my list of explanations.

Well, if it was a "disappointing 2", it wouldn't be classified a CAT 3 Biohazard (technically it's a CAT 4).
And when was the last time over 1 Billion (!) people worldwide - tendency increasing - have ever been placed under lockdown? With all Economies being shutdown?

Remember if enginered - it's a Prototype at best. A science project then, which got loose. That'd make it an unfinished thing - luckily.
Its missing broad lethality is one of the only two remaining details that prevent it from being a global catastrophe of unparalleled scale. Something we should be darn happy about.
  • more than sufficient disruptive potential? Check. Should be obvious.
  • sufficient lethality to overwhelm even the best global healthcare Systems if not ultra-aggressively countered (i.e. massive lockdowns, entire economies be damned)? Check
  • highly resident? Check, extremely unusual for a Virus and hallmark of any military Biological or Chemical compound. With upto 9 days (record observed), it's unique for a Virus AFAIK
  • contagious? Check, its genetic modifications make it by 3 to 4 orders of magnitude more contagious than ordinary/common Viruses, acting like a highly effective booster into the host
( http://www.donga.com/en/article/all...-more-likely-than-SARS-to-bond-to-human-cells )

btw. in mid 2019, there was a scandal revolving around multiple chinese scientists that were ousted after working at Canada's only BSL-4 Lab. The National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg. Where did they frequently travel to? The BSL-4 Lab in Wuhan.
(still all coincidence? Well, maybe. Maybe not.)

Make of it what you wish. As I said, it's not a bad idea to keep it in the back of your mind.
Whatever it is... it's out in the free, eating through entire continents and has sufficiently proven it's capable to spread with geometric speed.

For a Virus, nothing I'd call "disappointing". Far from it. I'd call that "damn dangerous" instead, causing entire continents to be turned upside down... but that's just me.
 
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