General / Off-Topic The safest place

[Deleted member 38366]

Still carriers, and still spreading the virus to those most at risk. I'd say this is even more alarming than the actual confirmed figures.

True...

I make daily calculations based on the current growth rate to estimate the actual number of Infected.

If you live in a region where the numbers are bad (Infected numbers double every 2 days) and assume each newly Infected will be detected and reach the Statistics within ~14 Days, you end up with 2 by the power of 7.
That's current, documented number of Infected x128.

If you can still assume that 50% of people who were in contact with a tested positive can quickly be "taken off the streets" by health officials (and i.e. sent to precautionary Quarantine), that power is reduced by 1. 2 by the power of 6 then remains. x64
[ as soon as a certain number of Infections cross a certain threshold, it becomes increasingly unlikely that there's enough staff to effectively run through all contacts of a known infected ]

Since the number of entirely undetected Infected (none or too mild Symptoms to qualify for testing - or intentionally don't come forward for any personal reasons) is more or less impossible to predict, a respecive correction isn't easy to apply and highly variable on top. Too many unknown factors.
If anything, knowledge of these cases should be kept in mind, as they'll only affect the predicted figures to the upside.

It is for that reason I stopped leaving the house at all after Infections tripled overnight in my smaller town and reached 2-digit figures that now more visibly enter their exponential growth.
Applying a x64 multiplicator turned out numbers high enough for me to consider the small town as a "zone orange" - that was my cut-off line to stop movement even for non-critical purchases I'd otherwise still do.
Enough people walking around now that I'll see in the Statistics in 2 weeks to hit that personal action trigger.

That works for me and gives me a reasonably precise risk assessment.
So if you have reliable access to your local Data and can work out your local growth rate, you can make similar calculations to estimate the actual number of Infected running around and base your decision matrix on that.

 

[askavir]

While I'm not going to go out if I don't need to (I probably wouldn't have done anyway) and I won't intentionally do anything to spread the virus .... I'm not having ANYONE dictate to me whether I can or cannot leave my home.

Believe me nobody gives less of a fart to it's government orders than I do, and I truly despise any kind of entity with too much power over people. I consider myself a "far-center ultra-libertarian".

But unfortunately we can't always rely on people's common sense, so we need to have some kind of balance between "individual freedom" (which I back 100%) and "freedom to harm others" (which is where the individual freedom line must be drawn).

As we absolutely cannot rely on people's common sense to respect the line beyond which they're not just exercising individual freedom, but already stepping on the "harm others" territory, then we unfortunately must have some entity enforcing the line. In this particular case, leaving our homes is definitively crossing that line, as we're not just going on a stroll, we may very well be harming others even if we don't realize it.

 

[Stigbob]

AGAIN ... usual fare for this forum ... it's always "No I AM RIGHT and you are wrong".

I'll tell you my attitude, as you obviously have no idea. I am not afraid of this virus. I'm not even afraid of this virus for other people. I AM AFRAID though of the damage that's been done by those who panicked and bought as much as they could, prompting others to do the same. I am afraid of the situation we are currently in where it's a never-ending cycle of panicking, and the media isn't helping matters because fear and scaremongering sells papers and website clicks. I am afraid of the consequences of all this, and that NO-ONE seems to be talking about what happens AFTER we beat this virus (because we will beat it) because now, there is a world-wide recession coming, but all anyone can focus on right now is "HOW DARE YOU GET WITHIN FIVE FEET OF ME!!!!!!!!!!" .....

That's my attitude.

EDIT: Also, last night I spent the night working in a supermaket stocking shelves, so I have a little insight into what's happening.

Nothing you've said there has anything to do with ignoring quarantine.

 

[Synkreto]

Believe me nobody gives less of a fart to it's government orders than I do, and I truly despise any kind of entity with too much power over people. I consider myself a "far-center ultra-libertarian".

But unfortunately we can't always rely on people's common sense, so we need to have some kind of balance between "individual freedom" (which I back 100%) and "freedom to harm others" (which is where the individual freedom line must be drawn).

As we absolutely cannot rely on people's common sense to respect the line beyond which they're not just exercising individual freedom, but already stepping on the "harm others" territory, then we unfortunately must have some entity enforcing the line. In this particular case, leaving our homes is definitively crossing that line, as we're not just going on a stroll, we may very well be harming others even if we don't realize it.

If any of the "western, civilized" Nations had doubts on what most of their civilization and culture is based on these days, the pandemic hopefully makes them realize that "respect and the mutual wish for well being" aint it .

 

[jasonbarron]

Yeah, I am not really too vulnerable to flattery .

To the rest of your post, no comment, as I want to keep this Thread open .

Smart move. Best for both of us to play nicely.

 

[Darthtool]

If you guys thought people were not taking things seriously, i do equipment/laundry transfers in and out of certain prisons in london, the staff don't even bother to use any PPe or social distancing.. this is a government institution !!!

As you can imagine i am now voluntarily taking time off to avoid this mess.

 

[Morbad]

As we absolutely cannot rely on people's common sense to respect the line beyond which they're not just exercising individual freedom, but already stepping on the "harm others" territory, then we unfortunately must have some entity enforcing the line. In this particular case, leaving our homes is definitively crossing that line, as we're not just going on a stroll, we may very well be harming others even if we don't realize it.

It may not be possible to rely on everyone's personal discretion, but it's even less practical to enforce blanket bans on personal movement in many areas. You have to come into contact with other people to risk contracting or passing on a contagion. I can certainly leave my home without this occurring and accosting or detaining me for being on an empty street by myself, or with those I'm already isolated with, isn't going to help anyone.

Even for those who may come into contact with others, completely limiting their movements without ensuring their basic needs have been satisfied is equally impractical. If someone has a choice between starving to death and risking exposing themselves or others, and having to flagrantly violate the the law to so, they are still going to chose the latter.

Draconian measures of absolute containment fall more firmly on the side of harming others than accepting that some ignorant or reckless people will abuse the freedom they have.

 

[Sir.Tj]

As Yaflle said if we all play nice the thread will stay open or thread reply bans etc...

It's a troubling and worrying time for everyone so a bit of leeway can help.

 

[GJ51]

The worst is over

Economic failure also can be lethal

Time to find the best balance

Markets are base building now. If recent lows don't get broken down, then the bottom is in. Expect continued volatility as market movement is all currently driven by the news cycle and the news media is continuing it's focus on maintaining a state of hysteria. Watch for that to diminish as sensationalism starts to lose it's effect and markets get back to analyzing data.

I'll be dollar cost averaging back in over the next 12 weeks

 

[ianw]

This is going to be complicated by the reports coming out of China that they're coming out of lock down.

Hearing that is not going to encourage people in countries which are behind the infection curve to take it seriously..

 

[askavir]

Draconian measures of absolute containment fall more firmly on the side of harming others than accepting that some ignorant or reckless people will abuse the freedom they have.

Of course, that's why the lockdown has exceptions, things like supermarkets are still working at reduced schedule and you are officially allowed to leave your house for supplies, walking dogs, and do exercise if you have a condition that justifies it.

 

[askavir]

The worst is over

For the majority of the world, it has barely even started.

 

[Xenith]

The worst is over

Economic failure also can be lethal

Time to find the best balance

Markets are base building now. If recent lows don't get broken down, then the bottom is in. Expect continued volatility as market movement is all currently driven by the news cycle and the news media is continuing it's focus on maintaining a state of hysteria. Watch for that to diminish as sensationalism starts to lose it's effect and markets get back to analyzing data.

I'll be dollar cost averaging back in over the next 12 weeks

The worst is over? Can we see your medical and/or science credentials?

 

[jasonbarron]

The worst is over? Can we see your medical and/or science credentials?

Heck, if we're going to play it that way then maybe you should post up yours while he's digging around for his? I've lost track of how many totally qualified & certified scientists, epidemiologists, climatoligists etc use their vast first hand knowledge and expertise to shout down opinions on this forum that don't square with theirs. Unless you buy into the conspiracy theory that most of us are just sitting on the sidelines screeching with no more relevance or practical experience to matters under discussion than monkey's in a zoo...

 

[Xenith]

Heck, if we're going to play it that way then maybe you should post up yours while he's digging around for his? I've lost track of how many totally qualified & certified scientists, epidemiologists, climatoligists etc use their vast first hand knowledge and expertise to shout down opinions on this forum that don't square with theirs. Unless you buy into the conspiracy theory that most of us are just sitting on the sidelines screeching with no more relevance or practical experience to matters under discussion than monkey's in a zoo...

I didn't make the claim that the worst is over....

 

[jasonbarron]

For the majority of the world, it has barely even started.

I could go either way on this, honestly. We'll see. One thing that does strike me as a fairly rock solid certainty is that unless this thing mutates to a harmless form or we quickly find a vaccine (keeping in mind that even the seasonal flu vaccine has a maximum efficacy rate of 40% and that number likely goes down every year you take it), quarantines are going to prove to be an imperfect solution with this thing just waiting to get going in a population as soon as strictures are lifted and the majority of people with no immunity. It's not like we're going to suddenly be able to produce all the ICU beds and ventilators required to keep everyone going.

 

[Xenith]

I could go either way on this, honestly. We'll see. One thing that does strike me as a fairly rock solid certainty is that unless this thing mutates to a harmless form or we quickly find a vaccine (keeping in mind that even the seasonal flu vaccine has a maximum efficacy rate of 40% and that number likely goes down every year you take it), quarantines are going to prove to be an imperfect solution with this thing just waiting to get going in a population as soon as strictures are lifted and the majority of people with no immunity. It's not like we're going to suddenly be able to produce all the ICU beds and ventilators required to keep everyone going.

We're buying time. The alternative is that all health services collapse, and people die needlessly and in large numbers. Imperfect it may be, but it's better than just letting the virus do it's thing.

 

[jasonbarron]

I didn't make the claim that the worst is over....

Without expertise in the matter your opinion is no more correct than his, yours being that the worst isn't over.

Personally, I think its going to prove to be the case that the vast majority of every man, woman and child on the planet is going to catch this and be forced to either survive, or not. The rest of the discussion, every single bit of it, is how best to deal with the fallout.

I definitely do my part to keep from spreading anything in the community, but I am under no illusions and have made peace with the fact that if I haven't already caught it (and I'm about 70% sure that I already have), that I will, and further that if/when I do, there will be no special care waiting for me. That's how I've lived my entire life, and whether that's sooner or later it's the way I assume I'll be going out, too.

 

[AkenBosch]

No one (except @Robin of Spiritwood methinks) has credentials here. I'll just have a look at this from time to time.

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

Keep tuned!

 

[marx]

The worst is over

For the majority of the world, it has barely even started.

In other words: the worst is probably over, for now, but only in a few places in the world, and nowhere else.
Although I wonder if GJ51 meant this as the worst for the markets.