General / Off-Topic The safest place

[WhiteHaulerMan]

@WhiteHaulerMan what part do I expand on, specifically? The part where we're in "WWIII" which if you believe the data we're given we are in a figurative sense (the war being against the virus, obviously), or the part where POTUS knows that and acts accordingly?

Ah right, sorry. I've just been listening to a Podcast by the Spectator which asked if the Corona Virus situation could trigger a war between the US and China. Wondered if you were pondering on that actual possibility, rather than a figurative war with the virus.

Link

 

[jasonbarron]

Ah right, sorry. I've just been listening to a Podcast by the Spectator which asked if the Corona Virus situation could trigger a war between the US and China. Wondered if you were pondering on that actual possibility, rather than a figurative war with the virus.

Link

No, I wasn't going there. I do think a reckoning is coming big time, but it's going to be on the economic front. Who knows, perhaps the trade war where we started with them and were clobbering them precipitated current events? The timing is sort of funny.

 

[Morbad]

I'd say that due to the various reasons that the 'new upper class' types who can, for example spend 6 months with a personal trainer to get ripped abs before they make a movie are probably more likely to survive being infected due to their diets/finances/circumstances.

While I wouldn't be surprised if a bit of reserve lung capacity and good cardiovascular health was correlated with higher survival rates, I suspect any appreciable difference in outcomes among the wealth will have far less to do with having personal trainers and nutritionists than simply being assured prompt access to treatment.

The idea that celebrities and politicians are less likely to catch, or come down with a serious case of, coronavirus doesn't seem well supported. Nor does it take a conspiracy for those who can afford the best private health care available to see low fatality rates for an illness that generally has very low fatality rates when adequately treated.

In a matter of weeks, this will be over in the US.

Care to make a wager on that?

 

[GJ51]

Care to make a wager on that?

Not a problem

$1,000?

 

[jasonbarron]

Care to make a wager on that?

I supposed we have to define what "over" is with some specificity, but I tend to agree with GJ51's overall sentiment; the tide is turning.

 

[sewerratuk]

According to the AA the safest place is in your car on the back of the trailer, rather than in the cab. As my misses found out last night and was less than happy about to say the least

 

[Ian Skippy]

Quit being daft. I'm not disappointed at all. I'm just wondering why Prince Charles, Tom Hanks and his wife, the top guy in the New York Port Authority, the second lady of Canada, Olga Kurylenko, Idris Elba and other high profile types haven't perished yet, or seemingly struggled too much? You can bet that the press would have given us the grueling details if they had been struggling.

Last post about this: The expected number of dead US celebrities = (total dead Americans/total US population)*total number of celebrities.
If we assume McNally is the only one who died, you can use '1' as the 'expected number, fill in the rest' and it'll suggest that what we currently see would be as expected if the list of US celebrities would include a little over 400,000 people. I dont think that list in reality would include so many more people than this to call the current count of '1' suspicious.

Even my feverish head can figure this out. There is no problem with asking yourself weird and seemingly out-there questions, but you do owe it to yourself to be more rigorous and self-critical when trying to find an answer.

 

[Morbad]

Not a problem

$1,000?

I'm game, but we'll need to agree on some unambiguous criteria for deciding the wager.

You say this will be all over in the US in a matter of weeks...are we talking about peak mortality rate or what? And what specific time table?

 

[Stigbob]

Stigbob, you hold more popular opinions that go with the flow so of course your count of likes is higher. Try to get my count with the unpopular opinions I consistently hold forth on

I can honestly say thats a first. Does this mean us liberals have won ?.

 

[GJ51]

I supposed we have to define what "over" is with some specificity, but I tend to agree with GJ51's overall sentiment; the tide is turning.

I'm thinking that at about 6 weeks, the US will be pretty much back to "normal" - some things will have changed and many employers may be shifting to allowing more employees to work from home, and there will be some adjustments to continue more preventive behaviors.

But we will be out of crisis mode.

Hard to imagine the total fatalities eclipsing fatalities from auto accidents and we're still driving.

This whole event was nothing more than a media feeding frenzy over a bad cold.

 

[jasonbarron]

I dont know what the mods think of it, but maybe we could have a topic just for your more.. colourful brain teaser, so we can keep this topic about COVID19 as it develops.

The funny part of this post is I said earlier that you guys would be attacking my position with great vigor to which you responded "No jasonbarron everybody here knows you're a joke and we all just laugh" or sentiment to that effect, yet here we are with you playing the report button like it's musical instrument. I point at hope, or that my country is doing a good job in the face of global criticism...and this is your tactic. So much for not turning yourself inside out with disagreement. And so much for your supposedly greater intellect being able to beat my supposedly more feeble gray matter

If that isn't a win for me in the arena of debate I don't know what is.

 

[Ian Skippy]

I supposed we have to define what "over" is with some specificity, but I tend to agree with GJ51's overall sentiment; the tide is turning.

That is a bit non-committal. Why not set a more quantifiable criterion and how many weeks you are thinking about exactly? You fill in the sentence:

After [x] weeks from today [y]% of the 2020 total US corona death count will have occurred.

Stats will be taken from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

yet here we are with you playing the report button like it's musical instrument.

I have reported a grand total of zero posts of you (or anyone) in this topic. I find that accusation to be in particular poor taste. If you feel you need to imagine such things to 'win' a debate I am disappointed in you. Now, if you want to 'win' (which is already a rather petty motivation to discuss these topics, but fine) you will make the above prediction and be accurate. You can then run your victory lap, if you so wish at times like this.

 

[jasonbarron]

I'm thinking that at about 6 weeks, the US will be pretty much back to "normal" - some things will have changed and many employers may be shifting to allowing more employees to work from home, and there will be some adjustments to continue more preventive behaviors.

But we will be out of crisis mode.

Hard to imagine the total fatalities eclipsing fatalities from auto accidents and we're still driving.

This whole event was nothing more than a media feeding frenzy over a bad cold.

If that were the basis of the bet you will handily relieve Morbad of his $1000.00

 

[Oldviboy]

Here's a direction this conversation hasn't gone yet: where are the stories of high profile dignitaries, actors, politicians, royalty, media darlings etc succumbing to the virus? We know that this virus is well integrated across all walks of life, cultures, occupations, castes, so where's the data on that?

5 from Spain (3414 deaths)

Although they were older people, they were in good health before being attacked by the virus.
:

- Lorenzo Sanz (76 years old), businessman and former president of Real Madrid (football)

- Lucía Bosé (89 years old), actress

- José Folgado (75 years old), businessman and former president of
Spanish Electricity Network.

- Carlos Falcó (83 years old),
Marquis of Griñón.

- Chema Candela (59 years old), RNE journalist.

- Francisco de Borja Domecq Solís (75 years old), rancher. He ran the Jandilla ranch from 1987 to 2016. (bull breeding for bullfighters)

 

[Stigbob]

I'm thinking that at about 6 weeks, the US will be pretty much back to "normal" - some things will have changed and many employers may be shifting to allowing more employees to work from home, and there will be some adjustments to continue more preventive behaviors.

But we will be out of crisis mode.

Hard to imagine the total fatalities eclipsing fatalities from auto accidents and we're still driving.

This whole event was nothing more than a media feeding frenzy over a bad cold.

No.

 

[GJ51]

I'm game, but we'll need to agree on some unambiguous criteria for deciding the wager.

You say this will be all over in the US in a matter of weeks...are we talking about peak mortality rate or what? And what specific time table?

Sure

Peak mortality on or before May 15, 2020 as defined by NIH

I'll send $1k to Jason to hold for the winner over PayPal if you do as well.

 

[jasonbarron]

5 from Spain (3414 deaths)

Although they were older people, they were in good health before being attacked by the virus.
:

- Lorenzo Sanz (76 years old), businessman and former president of Real Madrid (football)

- Lucía Bosé (89 years old), actress

- José Folgado (75 years old), businessman and former president of
Spanish Electricity Network.

- Carlos Falcó (83 years old),
Marquis of Griñón.

- Chema Candela (59 years old), RNE journalist.

- Francisco de Borja Domecq Solís (75 years old), rancher. He ran the Jandilla ranch from 1987 to 2016. (bull breeding for bullfighters
and that s**t)

I'm sorry for your losses. A top medical adviser to the Prime Minister of Italy has already stated that upon review only 12% percent of previously reported fatalities attributed to coronavirus were in fact, because of coronavirus. Spain will likely come to the same conclusions at some point, too.

The temptation will be to screech angrily at me for being a tinfoil hat wearing cretin, but I would urge you to turn back a page or two to where I shared the link to Prof. Ricciardi's words on the matter before giving in to it. I'm just the messenger.

 

[jasonbarron]

Sure

Peak mortality on or before May 15, 2020 as defined by NIH

I'll send $1k to Jason to hold for the winner over PayPal if you do as well.

I'd kick in a thousand, too, but I'm too busy saving my pennies for a toilet paper manufacturing start up.

 

[GJ51]

I'd kick in a thousand, too, but I'm too busy saving my pennies for a toilet paper manufacturing start up.

I'll give you a nice commission for facilitation.

20% - of holdings total OK?

Now that's what I call building a business from the bottom up.

 

[Oldviboy]

I'm sorry for your losses. A top medical adviser to the Prime Minister of Italy has already stated that upon review only 12% percent of previously reported fatalities attributed to coronavirus were in fact, because of coronavirus. Spain will likely come to the same conclusions at some point, too.

The temptation will be to screech angrily at me for being a tinfoil hat wearing cretin, but I would urge you to turn back a page or two to where I shared the link to Prof. Ricciardi's words on the matter before giving in to it. I'm just the messenger.

In Europe we have been ahead for a couple of weeks, it has happened in Spain and other countries after Italy, we did not believe them and we did not take measures ... many manifestations by the women´s day were allowed before the quarantine, thousands were infected, many politicians still they are recovering .... in US it just started now, we talked in a week or 2.