General / Off-Topic The safest place

[Synkreto]

Found the reason for people desperately trying to understand the math, asking the same questions over and over again . Will not share it openly . What I will say is : It is about directly profiteering from # of cases, and rate of deaths . People try to learn how to make accurate predictions to hopefully increase their profit .

 

[jasonbarron]

Found the reason for people desperately trying to understand the math, asking the same questions over and over again . Will not share it openly . What I will say is : It is about directly profiteering from # of cases, and rate of deaths . People try to learn how to make accurate predictions to hopefully increase their profit .

That's quite an assertion. You should probably share that "proof."

Edit to let time pass: crickets

 

[Synkreto]

Yeah, saw an alert about that. Good point.

It is NOT safe to be 2 metres from a sick person, who would want to do that?
The guidelines are minimal basic security that just improve risks, and reduce infection rates.

Thing is we need an infectious dose of virus particles in theory- which could be millions of them, IDK, - to likely cause a clinical infection. One virion particle is not a threat by itself in general is what they taught us. That is astronomically different to a single mucus droplet, which is like an ocean swimming with fish.

IRL, where are you going to really find just one virion? It's going to be droplets.

One Virus Particle Is Enough To Cause Infectious Disease

Can exposure to a single virus particle lead to infection or disease? Until now, solid proof has been lacking. Experimental research with insect larvae has shown that one virus particle is theoretically enough to cause infection and subsequent disease.

www.sciencedaily.com

But this caterpillar study says different. One virion seems to cause the whole illness. This isn't the same as saying if one gets in our nose we have had it. Odds still get worse the bigger the number of the dose. At some tipping point, a single one starts to replicate and BOOM We-We-We are Borg.

It is analogous to getting hit by shotgun blasts. One pellet could kill, but the whole cluster is a much worse deal. The whole cluster is one barely visible mucus droplet.

So wearing masks works mainly not by filtering your intake but by blocking the output from asymptomatic carriers. Still, I am wearing that if I go in public.

Suddenly all the more understandable that more and more countries Leaders yell "STAY AT HOME !" to the population... ?

 

[Morbad]

It would need to approach 9 figures to reach 1% of the global population.

Most predictions aren't looking at 80+ million fatalities attributable to COVID-19, though it's not entirely beyond the realm of plausibility.

Why the fixation on 1% of the population?

However, the collateral damage will be considerable.

Already is.

I know plenty of people who have lost loved ones and plenty more whose future employment is uncertain. This has likely delayed my wife's tenure review a least a year, and may result in the bankruptcy of the university she works for. My sister in-law is already on half-hours and will probably be let go, which will cause her to lose her home. My best friend has so much extra business that he's not able to keep up and may actually wind up losing some of his routes (he's a FedEx contractor), even if his drivers don't strike or burn out.

It's going to get worse before it gets better, and at this rate, we'll probably all be starting OnlyFans for supplemental income.

None of these countries are accurately reporting deaths due to Covid-19 ?

How can they? Tests are going to be in short supply for some time and some of the nations in these areas are deliberately undertesting to avoid panic.

Wouldn't surprise me if it takes more than a year for India to even count the dead after the main phase of the coming outbreak is over. I doubt they'll be testing every rotting corpse they bulldoze into a trench or burn pit, but hopefully they'll test enough to get a credible estimate.

Context and perspective shouldn't really be that hard to grasp.

Hard to show context or an accurate perspective with impossibly optimistic estimates.

And yes, pollution kills tons of people and causes a phenomenal amount of economic damage. Saying COVID-19 probably won't kill as many people as pollution should be neither surprising nor comforting. COVID-19 mitigations aren't going to reduce those pollution deaths enough to make a real dent in the additional deaths of this pandemic, or appreciably reduce the added strain on societies.

 

[jasonbarron]

At least Morbad recognizes that the worst of the global impact is going to felt economically, so that's a start.

 

[Synkreto]

That's quite an assertion. You should probably share that "proof."

Edit to let time pass: crickets

Psychology is a wonderfull tool jason .
You may want to think beyond the clown this time .

 

[jasonbarron]

Psychology is a wonderfull tool jason .
You may want to think beyond the clown this time .

Sorry my friend, but that doesn't really constitute a rebuttal in any kind of logical sense. Let me know when you have some facts to support your feelings.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Suddenly all the more understandable that more and more countries Leaders yell "STAY AT HOME !" to the population... ?

Much better than "six feet" apart, "you-don't-need-mask", don't you think?

Goldman Sachs now expects sequential real U.S. GDP to plummet 34% in the second quarter on an annualized basis, foreshadowing a deep economic slump...

It is not my area, but it seems like a Very Bad Idea to put money into markets as they sail into this. We are going to need our resources. To buy essentials.

 

[Ian Skippy]

Long term the economic fallout could be quite bad but in the short term its all about the sick and dying as it should be.

Which is why many European countries focus policy on two aspects:

1) Preventing short-term massive loss of life.
2) Safeguarding people's jobs so the economy can start (relatively!) fast when you can ease measures.

Any approach that either forgets the first or second part is going to be faced with a much more severely hammered economy. Also, regardless of the economy, glossing over tens or hundreds of thousands of dead citizens and shrugging it off as "meh, there are even worse things." is something I'd expect from the CCP, not people who claim to put value on the individual beyond its contribution to the system.

 

[jasonbarron]

Long term the economic fallout could be quite bad but in the short term its all about the sick and dying as it should be.

Oh, I agree with you, don't get me wrong. It is a funny side effect of this forum, though, how often people swing in like you're doing here to try and correct my thinking when all I'm doing is recognizing what someone else has already said. Take the person whom I was actually addressing with my comment; his concerns were purely economic. Why is it so instinctive to jump on me, but not call him out in the first place?

Anyway, regardless as to what the answer to that particular psychological riddle might be, I'm just glad that people are starting to recognize the dire consequences a shattered economy is going to have on them and their loved one's. The economic ripple effects of poverty, death and personal crisis is going to be felt long after the pandemic recedes.

 

[Morbad]

Long term the economic fallout could be quite bad but in the short term its all about the sick and dying as it should be.

Trying to separate the two is an exercise in futility. What preserves lives will ultimately preserve the economy, unless habitually taken to the extreme. Even those with the most incentive to keep economic output up aren't resisting rational mitigation efforts much...they realize that sacrificing their own wage slaves is bad business. After all, someone's going to need to pay for all the bailout money eventually, in one form or another, and it sure won't be their corporate persons or leadership.

The federal government does tend to value lives more that just about any other entity, in practice, but no corporate penny pincer thinks killing off consumers or employees is good business, especially if they get a reputation for callous indifference in the process.

 

[Kloppage Time]

Inelegant exit, stage right...just like another Skippy!

Its mental to see some people here argue that something projected to cause more deaths in in one year in the US alone than both the Korean and Vietnam wars total combined is somehow not a big deal. When someone went from "oh it is nothing at all!" to "more than both those wars in our country alone? Meh!" that person simply made up his mind months ago that he'd consider it no big deal no matter what.

 

[GJ51]

Odd

I haven't read anything here by anyone that suggested anywhere that this was "nothing at all."

Seems like many posters are using the same tactics as the press to try to put words in other people's mouths.

 

[jasonbarron]

Odd

I haven't read anything here by anyone that suggested anywhere that this was "nothing at all."

We've been at the "judging each others level of concern" value for about a week now.

 

[GJ51]

We've been at the "judging each others level of concern" value for about a week now.

I've used some reasonable numbers to ask questions, but I gave up on making value judgments and assertions a while ago.

Probably frustrating to some.

 

[Ralph Vargr]

I'm just living one day at a time, witnessing history.

 

[Deleted member 38366]

I've used some reasonable numbers to ask questions, but I gave up on making value judgments and assertions a while ago.

Probably frustrating to some.

But what if numbers is all you have? And being able to abstract from those numbers to make personal real-life decisions becomes important?

27 Jan : 2.927 (82 dead)
03 Feb : 19.874 (426 dead)
10 Feb : 42.753 (1.013 dead)
17 Feb : 73.250 (1.868 dead)
24 Feb : 79.607 (2.629 dead)
02 Mar : 90.340 (3.084 dead)
09 Mar : 113.515 (3.992 dead)
16 Mar : 181.128 (7.123 dead)
23 Mar : 373.801 (16.363 dead)
30 Mar : 775.306 (37.082 dead)
(01 Apr) : 921.924 (46.252 dead)

These are reasonable numbers, within the known reporting limitations that have been discussed internationally. These numbers answer your Questions.
Make your own analytical model and see for yourself what your results are for the future, it's easy as that.

 

[Ian Skippy]

I think some people was of the opinion that my post was to downplay the situation, it was not. It’s bad the numbers show it, however before we pull the plug to society we should step back and see what else is going on.

when millions die of cancer we don’t forbid the products that we know can cause cancer, we slap a label 🏷 on it and move on.That’s why I said some perspective regarding death in our global society.

What are you on about? Plenty of cancer-inducing products are banned for that very reason...

 

[Ian Skippy]

But what if numbers is all you have? And being able to abstract from those numbers to make personal real-life decisions becomes important?

27 Jan : 2.927 (82 dead)
03 Feb : 19.874 (426 dead)
10 Feb : 42.753 (1.013 dead)
17 Feb : 73.250 (1.868 dead)
24 Feb : 79.607 (2.629 dead)
02 Mar : 90.340 (3.084 dead)
09 Mar : 113.515 (3.992 dead)
16 Mar : 181.128 (7.123 dead)
23 Mar : 373.801 (16.363 dead)
30 Mar : 775.306 (37.082 dead)
(01 Apr) : 921.924 (46.252 dead)

These are reasonable numbers, within the known reporting limitations that have been discussed internationally. These numbers answer your Questions.
Make your own analytical model and see for yourself what your results are for the future, it's easy as that.

With the caveat that making proper models is far from easy. Certainly above what I can do, that's for sure. As soon as countries start taking measures it becomes very complex very fast. The current models for EU and US? Have to take the bio-statisticians on their word.

 

[Patrick_68000]

will be infected. Not currently are.

Yes you are right.



---------------------------------------------------