General / Off-Topic The safest place

[Gortron]

I think that even more helpful to the general anti-panic efforts would be if they started reporting people who died TO cv-19's compications and people who simply died WITH cv-19 separately.
From what I'm seeing, there actually doesn't seem to be a significant increase in an average weekly death rate during the current epidepic.
In other words - around 9500 people die in UK weekly. About a half a million a year (according to 2017-2018 averages). Of old age, terminal illness, etc. (accidents aren't included). And from the data I have available, there aren't many more people dying weekly, during this outbreak. It's just that some of them now also have COVID-19.

I am not downplaying the pandemic - some people who wouldn't have to die otherwise clearly died BECAUSE OF corona virus and that is tragic. NHS workers inparticular who are in contact with high concentrations of the virus. And there are people who would have died to COVID-19 and adjacent complications but didn't because of the medical care tha's been made available to them.
But overall, I simply don't see the need for panic and media should include ALL deaths in the country to put things in perspective.

What is more concerning is that due to the pandemic, almost all medical efforts are focused on it and many other areas are neglected. Periodical check-ups of diabetics, breast cancer screening, etc... These things have a potential to cause more deaths down the line than COVID-19 ever could.

This is a really serious issue, I agree.

My mum decided not to go to her hospital appointment for Angina because she has some symptoms. I told her they were not likely Corona but she wouldn't go to 'protect the NHS - save lives'. Now she won't go because she understands that the best place to get the Virus is at the hospital.

I have an uncle that is dying of cancer that isn't being treated because of the virus. The whole thing is a balancing of risk and benefit. If we completely destroy our economy trying to save lives; how many people will that kill?

I'm more worried about this whole thing ending in my Mum getting Covid-19 and dying than anything else, but if she gets it in 2 years and I'm jobless and living on the street when she really needs me; how can I help her then?

 

[Ian Skippy]

From what I'm seeing, there actually doesn't seem to be a significant increase in an average weekly death rate during the current epidepic.
In other words - around 9500 people die in UK weekly. About a half a million a year (according to 2017-2018 averages). Of old age, terminal illness, etc. (accidents aren't included). And from the data I have available, there aren't many more people dying weekly, during this outbreak. It's just that some of them now also have COVID-19.

Not sure what makes you say that, England has pretty much the highest increase of weekly mortality in Europe...

Coronavirus: England's 'excess deaths' among the highest in Europe

New mortality figures suggest England has been as badly affected as Spain and Italy by the COVID-19 outbreak.

news.sky.com

 

[Gortron]

Not sure what makes you say that, England has pretty much the highest increase of weekly mortality in Europe...

Coronavirus: England's 'excess deaths' among the highest in Europe

New mortality figures suggest England has been as badly affected as Spain and Italy by the COVID-19 outbreak.

news.sky.com

It is very depressing. I'm not entirely convinced that Apples are being compared to Apples though (UK death rates keep going up because we keep adding in statistics we consider related).

Unless some miracle cure comes along, in 6 months every country that hasn't shut down borders will be doing it again.

 

[Ian Skippy]

I'm not entirely convinced that Apples are being compared to Apples though (UK death rates keep going up because we keep adding in statistics we consider related).

No, excess deaths is the number of deaths above the weekly average regardless of cause. That is why it is being used for comparison: it doesnt matter if you only count those who tested positively, only those who died in hospitals, or any such things for COVID19 stats: with excess deaths you simply look at how many people in total die in your country, and how much that deviates from the normal numbers.

 

[sewerratuk]

No, excess deaths is the number of deaths above the weekly average regardless of cause. That is why it is being used for comparison: it doesnt matter if you only count those who tested positively, only those who died in hospitals, or any such things for COVID19 stats: with excess deaths you simply look at how many people in total die in your country, and how much that deviates from the normal numbers.

Well let’s look back at where we are in 12 months before we start casting aspersions

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Spent most of yesterday in Casualty, with chest pain. Looks like Covid isn't quite done with me.
Quite a horror show of exposure for me, have not been in a crowd of 10 people since January. Got to say, we have a surplus of doctors. Saw around 20 of them- Ie, they attended to me. Surgeons, Cardiology, Internists and Cas staff. They did a lot of poking around. No conclusive findings.

That gave another opportunity though:

Source: https://youtu.be/CVjGCPfRwUo


I took apart the rubber rims from 3 gloves and made the harness for the Cardiology nurse. There was considerable interest. By the time I left, most of the staff had upgraded. Hopefully it will spread from there to the rest of the medical staff.

We are really not concentrating on the mask issue. In order to open society up, people need comfortable reliable protection they can wear, clean and re-use. I do not fancy bidding on foreign made items during a global shortage- we ought to solve it and export..

He came by today with food. Gave him the new valve and some plastic for the laser cutter.

I think we can set up a manufacturing unit to make custom fitted respirators from soda bottles, but we need to make a one piece filter and valve insert, And we need some actual funding. It's not too much to ask to charge 5-10$ for an infinitely reusable custom fitted N99 plastic respirator? I've already done the research.

See the line just above the label? We transect the bottle there. Make a few 1 cm cuts in along the new rim. Run a length of heavy gauge wire along the circomference and snip it at the same length. Form wire around face.

Then immerse bottle in water at 80C for a couple minutes, softening it, and finally push the wire form down from the top to get the shape. It's easy to roll the plastic edges over the wire and trim off the surplus. Comfortable airtight seal. Easy to make 2 per person, so there's one being cleaned and one in service.

I have a couple ideas to make the filter assembly out of scrap PVC pipe, cylindrical filter and intake, with a blow through exhaust valve down the centre. Mount it below the chin, so water vapour doesn't fog up vision.

-------/ 3 " Perforated pipe, 2-stage filter wrapped round the outside
-------/ <- End cap with Flap valve at end, closes on intake, opens on exhalation. So- only ONE valve, only one airway, only one opening in the housing.

 

[WeComeInPeace]

I think many people have had a similar thought but your ultimate conclusion seems a bit harsh. If you want to be rich then there are far better ways than becoming PM of the UK (the pay isn't that good really). Most people that want to run the show probably think they are doing it for the right reasons. Even politicians I strongly object to being PM I don't think are doing it for money. They are trying to change the country they love for the better (even though 50% of people will disagree).

There are narcissists, psychopaths and sociopaths that might like to run a county but I don't think Boris falls into those categories.

Mods; The subject is poticial but I don't think my response is?

I'm not referring to the money. It's more the power that tempts I think. That can be worth way more than money, and here I don't mean corruption, but the feeling of being in charge is like a drug to some people. I also agree that most politicians are driven by honest thoughts about making a better society. And the sweet power

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Covidswab/BIDMC at master · rarnaout/Covidswab

New home of the Covid19-NP-Swab NP-swab manufacturing project - rarnaout/Covidswab

github.com

Other people round the world are having the same swab problem. Trying to 3D print a swab is really overthinking it.

Don’t do this. Your FDM printer cannot make these right, and you don’t want swabs breaking off in people’s noses, sending them to the emergency room with coronavirus. A consortium of hospitals, universities, and resin 3D printing companies (Formlabs, Origin, Carbon, and EnvisionTec) is working hard to solve the shortage at printedswabs.org and they’re taking orders now for immediate fulfillment.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Trinidad and Tobago ranked high in readiness to relax covid19 lockdown - Trinidad and Tobago Newsday

Trinidad and Tobago ranks second among 149 countries in terms of readiness to begin relaxing covid19 lockdown measures. A study by Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government, dated April 23, … Continue reading Trinidad and Tobago ranked high in readiness to relax covid19 lockdown

newsday.co.tt

Oxford study:

Trinidad and Tobago ranks second among 149 countries in terms of readiness to begin relaxing covid19 lockdown measures

.

Vietnam- Us- Costa Rica are the top countries. Judging by the general caution, we will not be reversing our hard won gains by lunging into a foolish premature reopening. Our putative deadline is in 2 weeks, which will be enough time to observe what happens to Europe and the US.

 

[Wotthe Dickens]

@Robin sorry to hear your chest still bad; good work on the swabs and masks! Jeez, I wish we had more peeps like you and less power mad boris’s over here.
Make sure you give yourself some rest too
My fatigue still persists and some pain, and chatting to my london based friends, this virus is persistent! Or at least some symptoms are.
I’ve been trying to get tested as I’m a key worker (teacher) amongst other things, but I’ve not been successful with the website yet!

 

[metatheurgist]

On the everything is normal front:

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/health/coronavirus-us-up-to-100-bodies-of-victims-found-in-trucks/news-story/f5c26ed5c685f899703747d8a40cbefd

'cos on an average year deceased people are totally decomposing in a U-Haul outside a mortuary.

 

[Ralph Vargr]

This is the first of many "defining events" for this decade.

9/11 was the defining event for the last 20 years. This is arguably worse in terms of personal and economic impact.

 

[Patrick_68000]

Well... he also said:
‘Female students go to university because they have got to find men to marry.’

So, you know. Grain of salt and that.

He also said, "It’s like we’re in a big tunnel under the Alps and now, we go out and see the light and the meadows."

A real poet this Boris.



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[Patrick_68000]

I hope so but people are seriously starting to break the rules, and far too early. There has been a huge increase in road use this week, far worse than the government is suggesting (I'm a key worker so have been going to work and back the whole time this has gone on).

Road use where I live where public transport isn't good is up well over 100% on last week. It isn't far from normal now really. All the roadside food outlets are back. Local bakeries are opening. DIY stores opening. Where I've started to run next to where I work (because so many people were out walking and such it was impossible to social distance) and that has been deserted for weeks (near a decommissioning nuclear power station) I saw 9 people on my last run, so up 900%.

I fear we are going to have a massive second peak in the UK. There are mixed messages that are going to come back and bite us in the Derriere!

It is to be feared that in many countries, with the good weather coming, there will be a lack of discipline and attention in social distancing, and barrier gestures.

------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Ralph Vargr]

He also said, "It’s like we’re in a big tunnel under the Alps and now, we go out and see the light and the meadows."

A real poet this Boris.



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Where is Natasha?

 

[ianw]

Covidswab/BIDMC at master · rarnaout/Covidswab

New home of the Covid19-NP-Swab NP-swab manufacturing project - rarnaout/Covidswab

github.com

Other people round the world are having the same swab problem. Trying to 3D print a swab is really overthinking it.



Gee, a whole "consortium" of organizations, huh? Took us about 10 minutes.

Yeah - but that's coz you guys.....are the A Team!

And I mean that in a good way

 

[ZeroAi]

Do you think the global economy can withstand that without more than a depression? I'd be surprised.

It's possible - but I can't predict the future. A lot will depend on what we all do.

USA? I doubt it's peaked there, you have 5 states with 0 restrictions and it's only just entered those regions. Not mention restrictions are already being lifted....

Here's the perspective from my state, Massachusetts:

Death by age group from COVID-19 as of April 27th:

80++ : ... 1,905
70-79: ... 665
60-69: ... 291
50-59: ... 111
40-49: ... 23
30-39: ... 7
20-29: ... 1
00-19: ... 0

Average age of those who have died from COVID-19: 82 years old

Total Deaths: 3003
Total Population: 6.7 million

The saddest part is, if we would have know how bad this was going to be for the elderly would could have likely saved a lot of those in the 80+ category.

 

[Wotthe Dickens]

Just out of interest, for those not living in the uk, how is the uk response and situation being reported in your media?
I remember not too long ago, the uk media were reporting with horror the Italian situation for example, but I’m not seeing much about our home grown situation in those terms now.

 

[WeComeInPeace]

Just out of interest, for those not living in the uk, how is the uk response and situation being reported in your media?
I remember not too long ago, the uk media were reporting with horror the Italian situation for example, but I’m not seeing much about our home grown situation in those terms now.

Generally I have been surprised about the role of the media in all this. They are very synchronized. In my country they all started using the term "dead with coronavirus" instead of "dead from coronavirus". I know, literally, that this was a wish from the government, but I find it strange and kind of thought provoking that none of the many journalist opposed to the semantic trickery. Not one single one.

 

[Ian Skippy]

Just out of interest, for those not living in the uk, how is the uk response and situation being reported in your media?
I remember not too long ago, the uk media were reporting with horror the Italian situation for example, but I’m not seeing much about our home grown situation in those terms now.

Pretty much "dropped the ball at first, trying to get it under control now, doing rather poorly."