General / Off-Topic The safest place

[Ian Skippy]

Unfortunately I fear that the Westerners will have to do like the Asians for years, wear the mask all year, even without an epidemic.

But I hope we will avoid this uncomfortable lifestyle.

Honestly, it is such a tiny effort that I cant muster the energy to fear it. Besides, people with hideous faces such as yours truly suddenly look mysterious and exciting with a proper mask.

 

[Synkreto]

Just quickly dropping this : While my district, and the region it is in, have been going without new cases for roughly 2 weeks, recently we see a tiny uptick . The interesting things about that : 1 fresh case in my district - about 10 days ago - was an elementary school girl . Immediate tracing sent roughly 40 people in Quarantine the next day . Looks like only 1 other confirmed infected came out of that . In the wider region, a cluster developed starting in a childs daycare . 9 people - some kids, some adults - have been tested positive initially . Since that only came up 2 days ago, the results for the contacts are still pending . That cluster resulted in some local shutdowons, and quarantines ofc .

Just thought I'd post that here, since reopening of schools etc. is a hot debate , and there are still people arguing children would not play a signifcant role in spreading Virus . This opnion is based on science of about 3-4 months ago, and 100% neglects what happened for instance in Israel .

Bavaria has lowered the threshold for measures -> once a district gets more than 35 new infected/100k people within 7 days, local/regional shutdowns will be the consequence .

 

[Synkreto]

Honestly, it is such a tiny effort that I cant muster the energy to fear it. Besides, people with hideous faces such as yours truly suddenly look mysterious and exciting with a proper mask.

Thing is, in many European cities - even small ones like the one I live in - it would actually be the smart thing to do to wear masks on the streets anyways...'cos of all the particulate matter (?) in the air . People just dont do it...I am guessing because they fear fainting or something . I did not do it simply out of neglience in the past .

 

[ZeroAi]

Portugal, Spain, and Belgium and a bit less than countries such as the UK and Denmark.

But that isn't the point. For example, Portugal reported on average less than 10% of the daily new cases they reported early April. That means they got it under control, for now. For the US that is a whopping 200%. It means they got nothing under control. And you are not doing 20x more tests, relatively speaking. You are doing slightly less (133,441 vs 134,066).

The obvious conclusion is what all the obvious experts were predicting and are now pointing at: the US failed catastrophically to deal with it in the early stages, refused to correct course (or rather, set any course at all) and are now faced with an economy that is worse off than those who properly dealt with it, with no end in sight nor a plan of attack. Anyone who thinks this is 'because they test so much' simply doesn't grasp numbers all that well. Which is fine, that is what the CDC and people like Fauci are for.

All I hear is troll troll troll.

The fact is, the USA is doing great on testing on a per capita basis - the numbers speak for themselves.

But comparing the USA to tiny countries is like comparing apples to oranges.

Honestly, here in my county we'd had no new cases since May. So if I compare my county to anyplace else then we are the best! Go Berkshires!

In the end, I won't be surprised to see that the reason New York City was hit so hard is that more people from Wuhan visited New York City in December and January than any place else.

Doesn't make it the USA's fault, just like it's not Italy's fault for the outbreak there.

What matters is the real response, and on testing the USA is doing pretty good. Hope everyone is is doing good too.

 

[Synkreto]

All I hear is troll troll troll.

The fact is, the USA is doing great on testing on a per capita basis - the numbers speak for themselves.

But comparing the USA to tiny countries is like comparing apples to oranges.

Honestly, here in my county we'd had no new cases since May. So if I compare my county to any place else then we are the best in the world lol. Go Berkshires!

In the end, I won't be surprised to see that the reason New York City was hit so hard is that more people from Wuhan visited New York City in December and January than any place else.

Doesn't make it the USA's fault, just like it's not Italy's fault for the outbreak there.

What matters is the real response, and on testing the USA is doing pretty good. Hope everyone is is doing good too.

It is known that the descendants that hit the East Coast - especially New York City - of the US came from Europe, not China . Handy little page to look that stuff up linked below :

auspice

nextstrain.org

In terms of testing per capita, figure this : the Faeroe Islands have tested about 4 times/1mill inhabitants of what the US have done so far . Iceland has done more than double of what the US has done .

If all you hear is trolltrolltroll, this may be a hint for you to hone your listening skills . Someone points out that your reasoning is faulty, and you just do not want to hear it . And no, the US of A is NOT doing great in terms of testing . Results are comig up to 1 week after the test, unless you are a prio1 person . Laboratories have been found to report incorrectly . Testing in general has started WAY too late . The USA are just about starting to catch up in testing !

Lastly, but not for the first time : this is not a sports competition . It is a Pandemic . Noone gets a prize for scoring better, or higher, or "doing great" . It is all about lifes saved, and preventing people from getting infected/getting sick . That is all that matters .

 

[ZeroAi]

Not sure what you mean by 'combined' - you can't add up tests/M and get a meaningful number (though it is good for ranking). I think most people would agree that the US has been doing a lot of testing - even months ago there was a lot of testing in the US - you do have quite a good infrastructure for that.

Yes, I wasn't trying to average all the countries - overall that would have made them look worse.

My point was, just looking at the table it amazing that the USA number is so much bigger than the other top countries - the point being it's not just bigger, it's bigger than the sum of all the other top 8 countries combined! (again, that's just an observation, not a statistic)

I don't think that high test rate is getting you into a great club - both UK and Russia have had larger numbers of infected people than a lot of other countries - hence they have large numbers of tests. Both were also countries where the leadership denied there was an issue for probably too long. Developed countries like US / UK / Russia etc that didn't control the virus ended up doing more tests, but also had a higher positive rate as the tests were basically confirming people with symptoms actually had the virus.

The countries with good test regimes caught the infections early - and with the reduction in infections comes a reduction in tests. So places like S.Korea/Germany tested a lot of people, but once they had it under control they only needed to test a sample to determine whether the virus was under control. I'm still a bit surprised by those numbers as when I checked the same site a few months back I thought places like Germany had higher numbers - shame they have no charts for tests over time.

I'll just say that I don't think comparing a large country to a small country makes much sense.

I mean, NYC has more residents than Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Ireland (individually, not combined)

Honestly, we'll never know how those countries would do if everyone moved into a single city and became a world financial center that attracted thousands of visitors from Wuhan, China in December and January... so again I don't think those comparisons are very useful.

Plus, we could also say that many US States which have larger populations than European countries have better overall numbers (less deaths, etc.)

In the end, I think it comes down to where people from Wuhan traveled to.

But if we do want to go just by numbers, then my country is tied for first place! Almost no death's and no new cases in months! ;-)

 

[ianw]

As a young healthy volunteer would you consent to being deliberately infected?

I don't fit the criteria but even if I did not sure I'd be up for that..

 

[Ian Skippy]

All I hear is troll troll troll.

Lol.

 

[Ian Skippy]

I'll just say that I don't think comparing a large country to a small country makes much sense.

Is that the new defense against the obvious failure? Sticking your fingers in the ear and yelling "lalalala can't look at those other countries!". It's about population density, not size Einstein.

Also to really spell it out: hospitalisations going up is what the experts call a 'bad thing'. You know, like things that go well, but then the opposite.

Sincerely,
-Trollmeister von Trollstein

 

[Patrick_68000]

Yeah, I think you're right :-(

In France, the mask becomes compulsory in all closed public places, from the next week and for an indefinite period.

However in the fight against the Covid it is a very good thing.

 

[Patrick_68000]

Besides, people with hideous faces such as yours truly suddenly look mysterious and exciting with a proper mask.

I always regretted not having my motorcycle license, to become attractive with my full helmet.

 

[Morbad]

US has been on the right trajectory with regards to testing lately, though could obviously be doing better.

The rest of the response is highly variable from one locale to another, and generally not good. People in many places still aren't treating the problem seriously enough, usually because they are willfully misinformed. If you look at the areas that are getting things under control, people are wearing masks (even during protests!) and generally avoiding unnecessary social gatherings. The areas that are about to become disasters have few people in masks and a much more cavalier attitude toward the whole thing.

I think we are looking at a second great depression looming, largely because the economy first, return to normality ASAP, camp is going to run the economy into the ground as they make this pandemic as protracted and painful as possible.

 

[Patrick_68000]

US has been on the right trajectory with regards to testing lately, though could obviously be doing better.

The rest of the response is highly variable from one locale to another, and generally not good. People in many places still aren't treating the problem seriously enough, usually because they are willfully misinformed. If you look at the areas that are getting things under control, people are wearing masks (even during protests!) and generally avoiding unnecessary social gatherings. The areas that are about to become disasters have few people in masks and a much more cavalier attitude toward the whole thing.

I think we are looking at a second great depression looming, largely because the economy first, return to normality ASAP, camp is going to run the economy into the ground as they make this pandemic as protracted and painful as possible.

Yes and this virus has come to temper the way of life of humans, based on overproduction, overconsumption and overpollution.

And as long as humans don't understand this fact, the problems will persist with this virus or something else.

The planet and the people are out of breath.

 

[Patrick_68000]

I hate to think what will happen if and when a second wave hits.

For my part I am not so sensitive to this.

If a catastrophe happens, it will be a redemption for the humanity.

At least let’s hope so.

As to which side of the barrier each human will find himself, and well to each his reward.

 

[Patrick_68000]

US has been on the right trajectory with regards to testing lately, though could obviously be doing better.

return to normality

This word of "normality" is an invention of a few thousand parasites which appropriates 95% of the wealth of the planet.

Invention to make people work.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

I hate to think what will happen if and when a second wave hits.

1 China
2 Europe/UK/ Middle East
3 Americas & India


Technically, we're past the second wave globally. But if you mean a second European/UK wave?

Graph shows human adaptation by wave 3. Flattish beginning, breaking the slope of wave 2. Also- Slower upswing compared to first 2. Wave 4 should be much better too, as we learn what to do.

But I fear that there won't be a wave 4, as the populations at risk now are much huger and likely to be uncontrolled. The 3rd expansion could just climb to a new peak, probably over the next few months before it plateaus. If we have uncontrolled spread and endemicity in Brazil, Mexico, India and the USA, the plateau won't drop down. Those populations are large, and it takes more than 8 weeks to spread through them, so the infection will reappear in the previously affected, cycling the flatline rate till winter. Higher S protein levels increased the infectivity.

If you look at the curve 3, you can see the mutation overcoming human adaptation at the right side..

In Winter of 2020... we should wait for data before predicting.

 

[Patrick_68000]

4 million inhabitants of Barcelona and its metropolitan area are invited to stay at home.

 

[ZeroAi]

In France, the mask becomes compulsory in all closed public places, from the next week and for an indefinite period.

However in the fight against the Covid it is a very good thing.

Yeah, it's the same in many places in the USA.

Sad, but if it helps I'm very cool with it - I have a nice mask with the American Flag on it

Truly awesome job on the testing front now if the US could only do an equally amaze balls job on stemming the infection rate then everything would be awesome.

From where I'm sitting, it seems pretty obvious that the rise in confirmed cases is a direct result in the rapid rise in testing - in fact if you look at the chart the rate of infection is going up slower than the rate of testing, which is a good thing imo. (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states)

(soon we'll be testing over 1 million per day)

That said, I totally concede that many young people partying and protesting did not follow the guidelines the last few weeks.

But thankfully the young are not the most at risk.

In my state (6.9 million people) for instance, we've not lost anyone under the age of 20, only 16 between 20-30, and the average age of someone dying from Covid is 82: https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-july-16-2020/download

So in the end not all states are equal, but I'm honestly proud of my state - all the graphs in the above link are going down and we're in great shape.

And while the USA as a whole may be getting bad press, 95% of our country is doing an awesome job

Edit: I added the referenced charts so readers don't need to click on the links

 

[ZeroAi]

For anyone who isn't good at math, when the rate of positive test results rises at a slower rate than overall testing, that's a good thing (the unedited image and link is in my previous post)

This chart doesn't take into account all the negative tests that have not been reported - not sure why some places stopped reporting the negative test results, but that's being looked into

 

[Factabulous]

For anyone who isn't good at math, when the rate of positive test results rises at a slower rate than overall testing, that's a good thing (the unedited image and link is in my previous post)

What you want is less positive tests. Full stop. (Well, unless you're achieving that by stopping testing, but even the US hasn't done that.) Positive tests rising more slowly than number of tests just means your testing is getting better - but you still have more infections. You want fewer infections. More tests in general doesn't stop people dying - less positive tests will do that ...