The 100+ systems question!!!
So, i don't think this has ever been properly formulated here, so i'd like to pose a question and get some thoughts.
Backers initially pledged for 100 systems at around the 5 million mark. Over the next 60 million CIG added another 10 systems.
Some time after this, around 2015, CIG decided (unilaterally, no backer vote) to massively increase the scope by doing fully landable planets with handcrafted POIs.
To date, we have less than 1 complete system, with one of the major planets not belonging to that system, but actually belonging to another.
CIG have said they can't add more systems until they sort out the tech (or alternately, seperate servers with separate systems with choice being on launch of game as to which system you enter).
Some may also recall that CIG caused a little upset some years ago when they suggested the game would launch with maybe 5-10 systems, which had to be quickly retracted and changed to something like 5-10 systems by the time all major gameplay features are ready.
But let's not hold CIG to account if they don't get all the systems done by release. Let's make the assumption that this year they make whatever tech they need to allow them to finally start adding new systems. Let's assume all blockers are out of the way. (I know, its a big assumption, but let's roll with it).
It is known that not all systems need to be as detailed as the one they have. Some will be quite small, with not much in them. Others though will be more expansive. Sol and Terra will clearly take a lot of effort. The alien home systems, again, a lot of effort. So, we have to think about averages to some extent.
So, faithful and skeptics alike, how long do you think it will take CIG to add new systems on average? And from this, lets extrapolate what this means for CIG fulfilling all their stretch goals for systems. We will use 110 systems as the amount they need to develop (technically, 109, but hey).
I think the only way CIG can achieve a good number of systems in a reasonable amount of time is to fall back onto using procgen for most of the stuff (like ED - which will be funny as hell considering all the statements from faithful backers about how worlds in SC will be so much better than in ED as ED worlds are all procgen) and just handcraft some major POIs here and there or make most planets like they originally planned, limited landing zones.
With CR in charge, i don't see that happening, so the most optimistic scenario is if indeed CR has been pushed aside and someone else now holds the reins and is interested in shipping a product rather than just milking backers.
Let's go further, assume they will use either limited landing zones or heavily invest in procgen, and that they will aim for 5-10 systems by release. Then maybe we can expect a release (assuming everything else needed is in place by then - hahaha) by maybe 2024? Even then, unless they really drop most of their fidelity plans, its going to be decades before they finish their systems based stretch goals.
Otherwise, by the time they get there, not only will CR be dead, but so will most backers!
So, i don't think this has ever been properly formulated here, so i'd like to pose a question and get some thoughts.
Backers initially pledged for 100 systems at around the 5 million mark. Over the next 60 million CIG added another 10 systems.
Some time after this, around 2015, CIG decided (unilaterally, no backer vote) to massively increase the scope by doing fully landable planets with handcrafted POIs.
To date, we have less than 1 complete system, with one of the major planets not belonging to that system, but actually belonging to another.
CIG have said they can't add more systems until they sort out the tech (or alternately, seperate servers with separate systems with choice being on launch of game as to which system you enter).
Some may also recall that CIG caused a little upset some years ago when they suggested the game would launch with maybe 5-10 systems, which had to be quickly retracted and changed to something like 5-10 systems by the time all major gameplay features are ready.
But let's not hold CIG to account if they don't get all the systems done by release. Let's make the assumption that this year they make whatever tech they need to allow them to finally start adding new systems. Let's assume all blockers are out of the way. (I know, its a big assumption, but let's roll with it).
It is known that not all systems need to be as detailed as the one they have. Some will be quite small, with not much in them. Others though will be more expansive. Sol and Terra will clearly take a lot of effort. The alien home systems, again, a lot of effort. So, we have to think about averages to some extent.
So, faithful and skeptics alike, how long do you think it will take CIG to add new systems on average? And from this, lets extrapolate what this means for CIG fulfilling all their stretch goals for systems. We will use 110 systems as the amount they need to develop (technically, 109, but hey).
Average time to develop 1 system | Number of years for 110 | Year of completion of systems stretch goals |
2 weeks | 4 years (give or take) | 2024 |
1 month | 9 years | 2029 |
2 months | 18 years | 2038 |
3 months | 27 years | 2047 |
6 months | 55 years | 2075 |
1 year | 110 years | 2130 |
2 years | 220 years | 2240 |
With CR in charge, i don't see that happening, so the most optimistic scenario is if indeed CR has been pushed aside and someone else now holds the reins and is interested in shipping a product rather than just milking backers.
Let's go further, assume they will use either limited landing zones or heavily invest in procgen, and that they will aim for 5-10 systems by release. Then maybe we can expect a release (assuming everything else needed is in place by then - hahaha) by maybe 2024? Even then, unless they really drop most of their fidelity plans, its going to be decades before they finish their systems based stretch goals.
Otherwise, by the time they get there, not only will CR be dead, but so will most backers!
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