Open BGS in Colonia

Your claim was that "this will be over in two months at the most."

If neither side is going to get bored in the next two months, that's clearly not going to be the case.

(It may be the case that one side can achieve its current objectives in the next two months, but that doesn't make it "over" if the other side keeps fighting. Otherwise it'd have been "over" a year and a bit ago)


Yes and no.

In BGS terms, which is what this part of the forum is about, if it keeps going like this it will be over in at most two months. One month is more likely on current trends.

In an overall animosity sense, this can and will go on forever. I don't see any likelihood of a treaty in this one and there are plenty of conflicts in the bubble that have gone on for the full lifetime of the game.

What I was talking about was pure BGS terms
 
Season 12 results, PC leaderboards.
Civitas Dei 3.1 million combat points with 490 pilots. (~6300 points per pilot)
Loren's Reapers 0.7 million combat points with 30 pilots (~23000 points per pilot)

Seems to me that neither side is likely to get bored of shooting at each other any time soon, by the looks of that, certainly not in the next two months.
and SEPP (~EN) 0,28 mio points with i don't know how many pilots.
 
Ok so before I go on to explain why I have said that the above posts display a lack of understand of the BGS I'll just answer your post.

First of all, I am fully versed in this conflict, having followed it for weeks. I understand what Reapers goals are, because they have been talking about it for weeks.
Secondly, regarding your point 1: "you are assuming, playing the BGS is about retreat/expansions/control. it is not. cmdrs play the BGS for various reasons"
I have made no such assumption. I am fully aware of why people play the BGS having played it myself for a substantial amount of time. My assertion was based on what Reapers strategy appears to be, based on the many posts that they have made about it on a variety of threads.

I will get onto retreats shortly, I will answer your 3rd point first.
  • of course they cannot be retreated from their home system and they have already lost control of the shipyard. Since they cannot be retreated and can always come back, it is fair to say that their opponents must have some kind of plan for stopping them from coming back. If you look at the system and its recent history, it is so obvious. They will split all the assets in the system between two or three factions and then lock the system up with perma-wars/elections so that Reapers can never get The Nameless back in. This is not a new strategy. Plenty of bubble factions follow this and you can see it being prepared in the data. This also deals with your point about " they have no realistic outlook of creating a situation without useless conflicts/proxy wars". Those useless wars are exactly what they are doing from what I can tell. This is a low maintenance method of locking up a system. Start a war/election and let it run the full 7 days. Retrigger, repeat. Minimum work required. So as I said, they should not read too much into the war state. It is a useful tool and does not mean that much. It's not like a faction who really understands the BGS is going to say "oh no, we have a war, better throw everything at it including the kitchen sink." They can lose and win again later. They can win with minimum effort, or, as I am describing, they can start it deliberately and not fight it at all because the war state itself has another purpose.
  • in terms of fighting multiple conflicts at once, we're talking about civitas dei here, who currently sit 4th on the combat leaderboad and can consistently be found near the top of that leaderboard. They live and breathe conflict zones. If the strategy is to make Civitas Dei fight lots of wars they'll be greatful of that. Never mind the fact that these conflicts need to be triggered first. In Hephaestus and Coeus Civitas Dei and EN respectively have all the levers except murder available to them. It will not take much at all to react to any downward trend in influence and correct it. So yes, I am claiming that the other side loves conflict zones. You just have to ask them, like I did.

Now, to explain WHY a player opposed retreat is so hard to achieve:
1. When a faction is in retreat the mission board spawns a large number of retreat-related missions that make it easy to get influence + points stacked up and completed.
2. If the faction in retreat is in control of another system with RES sites pulling the bounty lever is extremely easy. The Nameless, in this example being an anarchy faction, do not have this lever available as easily anyway, although they can do it in Carcosa since they control assets there (and this is relevant given the three historical retreats in this conflict.

So 1 alone means a faction in retreat has an easy lever to pull to get out of retreat. If they have 2 available as well it is even easier to escape retreat.

The crucial point for why it is so difficult to retreat a faction that is being backed by active players is more complicated and requires some explanation.
Assume you have a system with the following influence distribution:
Faction A: 50%
Faction B: 20%
Faction C: 15%
Faction D: 10%
Faction E: 5%
Faction F: 1% (the faction being retreated)

Each influence + point put into Faction F has 50 times more effect than an influence+ point put into Faction A, 20 times more effect than Faction B, 15 times more effect than Faction C and so on.
In other words. If one player puts 40+ points into Faction F on the key retreat day with that distribution of influence the opposition will have to do
200+ inf for Faction E
400+ inf for Faction D
600+ inf for Faction C
800+ inf for Faction B
and
2000+ inf for Faction A!!!!
just to match the work done for Faction F

You can see there why it is SO HARD to retreat a player backed faction. The only way you can achieve it is to lock up as much of the influence that Factions A-E hold to leave no free influence for Faction F to work with. Only then can you realistically expect to retreat a faction that players are backing. And you can ask the above forum mod for confirmation if you like.

So what happened in Colonia? Three player backed retreats, with three total influence locks in three systems. Two of them on the same day if you look at the data. That is no easy achievement and to me, as a BGS player, that tells me something about the competence and staying power of the opposition Reapers are facing out there.

So I will say again. Reapers have been facing THIS, for nine months, and now they think that they can tire the opposition by starting wars in the systems of factions that clearly have the drive, manpower and patience to keep this sort of thing going for months on end? It's a pipe-dream and I encourage them to consider a better strategy because in BGS terms, if they don't, this will be over in two months at the most.

that's more like it!

a few points:
1. yes, a retreat is hard to manage, more so if opposed. but the tactic on display's charme in this thread you were referring to as "staggering lack of BGS understanding" is, as far as i understand, not depending on retreats to happen or not. as long as EN don't manage to retreat all other factions from all the systems they are in (which is only a theoretical possibility), there are proxy wars promised (which might happen or not, whoever leaves first). so, retreating one side over the last months is neither a win or loss. it hopefully is a reason for roleplaying fun (we have removed the anarchy pirates from a system! now pirates from a cooperative spawn!).

2. the idea of splitting assets between factions and bind controlling factions into conflicts to block a system control conflict to happen is a good one (we basically use assets to bind 2nd and 3rd into conflicts if necessary - nothing is harder to manage than a system with only one asset holder imho) - but it is no answer imho to the challenge to manage conflicts in all other systems. might be that the one side will "never" win back the shipyard, but that does not resolve the wars in all other systems. And all those wars need to be managed, if the other side circles through them - you can't wait for it simply ending by a draw.

3. you lay out the asset splitting tactic as "low maintenance"-mode (which it probably might be). but it speaks itself of trying to reduce the management load. if i'd be on the other side, i'd read that as a good sign (they don't have the ongoing ressources!).
think the idea here is by blocking one side from gaining control of the shipyard, they'll give up at some point. They might or might not.
The tactic laid out in this thread basically is: we don't play your game, you can gain the station and system, we will run havoc everywhere else where you are concerned. sounds to me like a typical underdog/asymmetric warfare tactic. What's the alternative for them?

4. none of your post adresses the collateral damage Ian D brought up, for exampel 2+ wars in Ceous. Will Civitas Dei also manage that conflict?

5. i think the whole discussion got a new level now - but i think it is important to take away, that there is no winning condition defined in the BGS. Which means - no conflict between players can be resolved by BGS.
 
Well yes of course they are moving to assymetric warfare. I just don't see how that is going to work out. They are obviously outnumbered or they would have been able to avoid the retreats and would not need to rely on PR to get recruits. So the tactic now is to spread themselves thin and move to guerilla warfare? I just don't see how that will work. Most likely outcome imo is that it's the guerillas who get tired first because they don't have much effect. Prove me wrong I guess. Happy to be wrong, but I've been in that situation in this game. It gets boring fast.

On the general point of there is no winning in the BGS and what Ian is saying, sure, I completely agree. I do not think the animosity/emnity side of this will ever end and in that sense it will NEVER be over. However, in pure BGS terms, this is a walk-over.

What I was trying to point out with my original post is that if Reapers think that this BGS strategy will reap dividends (no pun intended), my advice is to rethink it. They have been outplayed in the BGS and guerilla tactics are not great in the BGS. I really do not see how this current strategy on display will sustain this conflict for the long term in any meaningful BGS sense. Time will tell I guess
 
Ok so Mr. Ratcatcher,

Do you think that guerilla tactics are going to work given the BGS scenarios I have outlined?

Explainer, i really would like you to put up more of BGS fight. This conflict has so much potential but what you are offering is garbage. Take the fight to them PROPERLY. PR alone didn't cut it before. It won't cut it in future. Spreading yourselves thin will not work since you could not make it work when you were concentrated into one system before. There are other ways.
 
Ok so Mr. Ratcatcher,

Do you think that guerilla tactics are going to work given the BGS scenarios I have outlined?
Dunno, I'm not exactly doing much BGS stuff as it is boring as heck... Ask someone involved...

I was pointing out that your comment was utterly hilarious... A squadron with less than a dozen active players against exactly how many, hundreds? Seems a bit like that "sledgehammer meet nut" scenario to me - and I don't waste my time on anything that bores me, not at my age!

ETA: Don't let my comment prevent you from posting the stuff you are so involved with, someone will come along who is active or interested with whom you can measure against...
 
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Fair enough. Forgive me, I assumed you were part of Reapers given your reply.
I doubt it's hundreds. One competent BGS player can maintain 20 systems without opposition easily. Ten competent BGS players can maintain hundreds of systems with opposition. Reapers have said they have 7-10 players. Given the data, I suspect the opposition has around 20-30. If they really have hundreds, this is not even a discussion. They would never lose.
In fact, if they had hundreds, the entire galaxy had better watch out. I think any BGS group in the game would kill for 100 competent BGS players
 
Fair enough. Forgive me, I assumed you were part of Reapers given your reply.
I doubt it's hundreds. One competent BGS player can maintain 20 systems without opposition easily. Ten competent BGS players can maintain hundreds of systems with opposition. Reapers have said they have 7-10 players. Given the data, I suspect the opposition has around 20-30. If they really have hundreds, this is not even a discussion. They would never lose.
In fact, if they had hundreds, the entire galaxy had better watch out. I think any BGS group in the game would kill for 100 competent BGS players
One of my accounts, Ratkatcher, is certainly in the squadron - so you are not incorrect.

The 100's comment wasn't referring to that number of competent BGS players - but it is common knowledge that the AAA have been guided by an acknowledged expert, Jane Turner, so there potentially could be 100's of 'grunts' following explicit instructions...

My response above covers all 4 accounts I play - if something is boring it won't be done by me in any guise (y)
No forgiveness required.
 
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This conflict has so much potential but what you are offering is garbage. Take the fight to them PROPERLY.

yeah, give it to them!
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please share a good plan for this scenario! i'm most interested! (pristine_bump made this thread to do bgs in open!)

what would you do?

Well, tough nut to crack but I'll give it a go. They are not in the best starting position. Outnumbered, need BGS coaching, facing multiple enemies.

For starters, their entire campaign has been built around that shipyard so retaking it as a service to the community, based on their PR, would be paramount. What they need is numbers. Decent BGS players willing to stay the course and fight for that shipyard. Without the numbers on their side to actually win that they don't stand a chance.

In terms of taking the fight to the enemy, spreading out and attacking everyone at once is a bad idea given they are outnumbered. If it was me, I would concentrate all of my forces into a specific target. Hammer that target relentlessly until you achieve your goal and then move on to the next target. If you get it, with less numbers, you have a huge PR victory. "We beat them and were outnumbered 3:1 - come fight for winnners" or whatever.

Defend their faction is my main point. Moving to am attacking strategy with low numbers and low likelihood of success is less likely to recruit new players to the cause than fighting a valiant defence. They need to find a way to defend with a minimum of effort while taking any extra effort to attacking. Grind out the small wins and keep the rest equal. That way they lose nothing and maybe gain momentum. Get momentum and maybe they can get a big win.

In BGS terms, they are up against it now. 2 weeks ago this was still all open, but now, this is a really big job.

Either that or sue for peace. Try to salvage something (doubt it will happen and would be a sad ending).
 
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