Mathematically, the balance on this CG has been a miss

[Magister Mundi]

I've seen a lot of posts on the "rigged" nature of this current CG, but very little in the way of anything beyond opinion. So, I decided to run the numbers.

As of 10 minutes ago when I checked, the Marlinist faction has 3,668 contributors, and has pulled in a total of 12,083,252,519 in combat bonds. This averages out to about 3.294 million in bonds contributed per participant. Meanwhile, the Patreus faction has 2,794 controbutors, and has pulled in a total of 7,440,304,969 in combat bonds. This averages out to about 2.662 million in bonds contributed per participant.

Also worth noting that the Patreus faction has handily cleared Tier III of the goals, while the Marlinist faction is still stuck below it, and may or may not reach Tier III by completion.

This means that the players backing Patreus over the Marlinists are doing less work on average and getting better rewards. This is decidedly not a great feeling for the other side. I respect the attempt at balancing after the last lopsided CG, but this one so far has been a bit of a miss on that front.

 

[Tifu]

This means that the players backing Patreus over the Marlinists are doing less work on average and getting better rewards. This is decidedly not a great feeling for the other side. I respect the attempt at balancing after the last lopsided CG, but this one so far has been a bit of a miss on that front.

I think Fdev was expecting the same ratio of commanders to support the Marlinists as in the Liz Ryder CGs - that is 3:1.

That's not going to happen of course since:

• No module rewards
• many commanders don't like imperials of any stripe (including the Marlinists)

The thresholds for a major victory are steep and obvious, T3 for the Marlinists and T5 for the imperial navy. Neither is going to reach these triggers so the outcome will be grey.

Note that for the Marlinists there is no scenario where they'll win over the imperial navy. The best they can hope for is escape.

 

[Magister Mundi]

I think Fdev was expecting the same ratio of commanders to support the Marlinists as in the Liz Ryder CGs - that is 3:1.

That's not going to happen of course since:

• No module rewards
• many commanders don't like imperials of any stripe (including the Marlinists)

I have to be honest, I'm kind of having a hard time figuring out how they're coming up with these targets. First we had the 50 million luxury good target that had to be reduced to 4 million (and it still wasn't completed), then we had a CG where one side was offering a unique weapon and the other was offering nothing (and unsurprisingly the ones offering the unique weapon got the most support), and now we have a lopsided goal that apparently assumed that the reason for the last blowout wasn't the aforementioned unique weapon, and also seems to have missed the antipathy toward all Imperial types, as you mentioned, not just more or less sympathetic Imperials.

I'm not sure what their strategy is here. Is this testing for something? Just seems odd that we've had three rather unbalanced CGs in a row, and each has been unbalanced in a way that even a fairly novice player such as myself can spot the problems with them almost immediately.

 

[babelfisch]

In my opinion Frontier did quite well. Both sides are currently 2% apart from each other. I believe nobody in the community could have made a better guess.

 

[alexzk]

That's not going to happen of course since:

3rd option - went to Black as got tired of those pew-pew things.

 

[Magister Mundi]

In my opinion Frontier did quite well. Both sides are currently 2% apart from each other. I believe nobody in the community could have made a better guess.

The side that is putting in less effort on average is 3% ahead in terms of percentage of their goals completed vs. the percentage of the Marlinist goals completed, yes, but that's not a good comparison. The Patreus goals are super easy to reach compared to the Marlinist goals, especially considering their respective participant numbers (the target for the Patreus faction is only 55.56% of the Marlinist faction target, but the Patreus faction has 76.17% as many contributors as the Marlinist faction), and as I mentioned originally, there's a discrepancy in effort being put in that's considerably greater than a 3% difference in effort. Specifically, the Marlinist side is putting in about 27.43% more effort on average per contributor. That's a fair amount of extra work to be putting in to still be 3% behind comparatively and also a full reward tier lower than the competition.

Basically, if this was a mathematically balanced CG, the Marlinist side would be 27.43% ahead of the Patreus faction right now, not 3% behind. That's a difference of more than 30%. That's a significant disparity.

 

[Tifu]

I'm not sure what their strategy is here. Is this testing for something? Just seems odd that we've had three rather unbalanced CGs in a row, and each has been unbalanced in a way that even a fairly novice player such as myself can spot the problems with them almost immediately.

It's definitely a test of where the player's sympathies and motivations are. The previous CG was a disaster, i doubt FD will be offering a unique module again.

This one is a lot better but what I want to see is how the CG shapes up based on the outcome of the present one.

Then we'll see how well FD understands the community. I hope they do get us because there are 2 years more to go for the storylines. One too many failed CGs and that storyline is dead because virtually no one will participate anymore.

 

[JosiahD]

It's definitely a test of where the player's sympathies and motivations are. The previous CG was a disaster, i doubt FD will be offering a unique module again.

This one is a lot better but what I want to see is how the CG shapes up based on the outcome of the present one.

Then we'll see how well FD understands the community. I hope they do get us because there are 2 years more to go for the storylines. One too many failed CGs and that storyline is dead because virtually no one will participate anymore.

Why was the previous CG a disaster? One side offered 'mercenaries' (for want of a better description) an 'appealing' reward (well to some it might have been) plus it was a case of defending an Engineer from the accusations and an attack by a superpower. The result was pefectly reasonable under those circumstances. Had the Empire offered something equally or more attractive for 'mercenaries' the result might have been different. Anything but a disaster of a CG if the result fits the narrative FDev wanted to push. It was, of course, OUR choice of who to support and we as a playerbase could have swung it the other way if we'd wanted to as a group.

 

[Tifu]

Why was the previous CG a disaster? One side offered 'mercenaries' (for want of a better description) an 'appealing' reward (well to some it might have been) plus it was a case of defending an Engineer from the accusations and an attack by a superpower. The result was pefectly reasonable under those circumstances. Had the Empire offered something equally or more attractive for 'mercenaries' the result might have been different. Anything but a disaster of a CG if the result fits the narrative FDev wanted to push. It was, of course, OUR choice of who to support and we as a playerbase could have swung it the other way if we'd wanted to as a group.

It was a disaster because the outcome was determined on day one. If this CG had the same unbalanced conditions then no one would support the empire - and you can't have a successful CG if there's only one side playing.

We came that close to a failure of the storyline. Why do you think the current CG is structured this way?

 

[Factabulous]

Balance has been a miss?

Hmm, maybe they're talking about the hourly contributions towards the targets:

Hmm, nope, can't be that ... they're swapping around and overlapping.

Maybe he's saying one was always in the lead, so the other had no chance:

Nope - can't be that - the Marlinists were in the lead, then they were gradually overhauled by the Imps.

It's pretty ironic that the first really close CG battle in probably years in the first to attract so many 'it's unbalanced ' comments. Almost like people are just comparing the raw numbers and making assumptions

(And ofc the CGs were actually favouring the Marlinists, if you look at the relative support numbers from last week )

 

[Florenus]

This means that the players backing Patreus over the Marlinists are doing less work on average and getting better rewards. This is decidedly not a great feeling for the other side. I respect the attempt at balancing after the last lopsided CG, but this one so far has been a bit of a miss on that front.

I'm afraid you look at this as if this was some sort of kindergarten play, where everyone must be happy and rewards equal, or otherwise kids will throw a tantrum.

I'm fighting for Marlinists and I don't mind backing the underdog. It doesn't bother me that we have it harder. It actually makes it feel like I'm part of some doomed resistance, which is great thing for the story. It would be really boring if everyone would be victorious.
After that I can start being grizzled mercenary, drinking in cantinas, disillusioned, full of resentment, seeking revenge and pretty much wanted in certain parts of the Empire.

I spit on the Imperial dogs who lick boots of their masters and do their every bidding for some shiny scraps.

 

[babelfisch]

The side that is putting in less effort on average is 3% ahead in terms of percentage of their goals completed vs. the percentage of the Marlinist goals completed, yes, but that's not a good comparison. The Patreus goals are super easy to reach compared to the Marlinist goals, especially considering their respective participant numbers (the target for the Patreus faction is only 55.56% of the Marlinist faction target, but the Patreus faction has 76.17% as many contributors as the Marlinist faction), and as I mentioned originally, there's a discrepancy in effort being put in that's considerably greater than a 3% difference in effort. Specifically, the Marlinist side is putting in about 27.43% more effort on average per contributor. That's a fair amount of extra work to be putting in to still be 3% behind comparatively and also a full reward tier lower than the competition.

Basically, if this was a mathematically balanced CG, the Marlinist side would be 27.43% ahead of the Patreus faction right now, not 3% behind. That's a difference of more than 30%. That's a significant disparity.

Marlinists could still 'win' the CG, it's pretty close which is a good thing.
On the other hand, this is all pointless because there is no 'win'. The CG simply decides how many megaships can flee the sytem, not if the marlinists win.

 

[Magister Mundi]

I'm afraid you look at this as if this was some sort of kindergarten play, where everyone must be happy and rewards equal, or otherwise kids will throw a tantrum.

I'm fighting for Marlinists and I don't mind backing the underdog. It doesn't bother me that we have it harder. It actually makes it feel like I'm part of some doomed resistance, which is great thing for the story. It would be really boring if everyone would be victorious.
After that I can start being grizzled mercenary, drinking in cantinas, disillusioned, full of resentment, seeking revenge and pretty much wanted in certain parts of the Empire.

I spit on the Imperial dogs who lick the boots of their masters and do their every bidding for some shiny scraps.

Hey, good for you! I'm glad the RP element alone is enough to satisfy you. However, I personally would prefer balanced reward tiers, and I can't imagine I'm alone in that.

 

[Factabulous]

The CG simply decides how many megaships can flee the sytem, not if the marlinists win.

Ah, but we don't get to do Return of the Jedi if we don't escape in the Battle of Hoth

Return of the Jedi... so we get to take down the Emperor ... surely that's worth fighting for

 

[babelfisch]

Hey, good for you! I'm glad the RP element alone is enough to satisfy you. However, I personally would prefer balanced reward tiers, and I can't imagine I'm alone in that.

If you look at Factabulous post above, it seems to be perfectly balanced.

 

[Florenus]

Hey, good for you! I'm glad the RP element alone is enough to satisfy you. However, I personally would prefer balanced reward tiers, and I can't imagine I'm alone in that.

Maybe you're not alone, but it doesn't mean you're right.

 

[Magister Mundi]

If you look at Factabulous post above, it seems to be perfectly balanced.

It's not. The charts presented would be great... if it was a like comparison, i.e. an equivalent number of participants working toward an equivalent goal (so, Patreus support being 55% of the Marlinist contributor numbers working toward 55% of the Marlinist goal), but that's not the case. I already gave the numbers supporting my argument, and this doesn't refute them, so I won't repeat myself.

 

[Magister Mundi]

Maybe you're not alone, but it doesn't mean you're right.

Sure. Conversely, neither are you. What you're describing is a personal play style preference, and that's great. But that's not particularly relevant to my point (my point being mathematical balance). You could certainly make an argument that it's fine that it's imbalanced, but that's a whole different discussion, and not one I'm addressing here.

 

[Episparh]

@Factabulous your graphs are neat but they do not tell the entire story. You are correlating only the relative progress by completely ignoring the quantitative part.

Ref. : "How to lie with statistics" by Darrell Huff

 

[babelfisch]

It's not. The charts presented would be great... if it was a like comparison, i.e. an equivalent number of participants working toward an equivalent goal (so, Patreus support being 55% of the Marlinist contributor numbers working toward 55% of the Marlinist goal), but that's not the case. I already gave the numbers supporting my argument, and this doesn't refute them, so I won't repeat myself.

I believe your numbers are wrong. Currently contributors are 3,689/2,853 but IIRC it was more like 3000/1000 for the first few days. Could be wrong because I didn't write it down...
Is it possible to pledge for both CGs simultaneously?