Thank you for the answers. My faction was below lead faction, next tick we had gone ahead by a couple of %. There were no conflict states between ours or lead faction to interfere. This latest tick has us 5% ahead of the controlling faction but with no war pending still and hence my question. I am assuming then that if we wanted to trigger the war we would now need to get from our current 34% to 60%.
Check the news bulletins in your system. They may give a clue what faction is the problem and what system the conflict is in. If this doesn't help, you will have to eith check Galmap or visit all the nearby systems.