62-63% is the usual trigger, so you should be safe at 65%. Check the news bulletins to see if the other faction is in a blocking conflict somewhere else.
With the controling faction at 14%, you have to be careful they don't end up in conflict with another faction in the system by equalising. That will still be a conflict for control, with your faction twiddling their thumbs waiting for it to complete.
For what it's worth, I've never known war to trigger at anything below 70%.
Case in point, I've just spent an entire week over 65% (maximising at 70% on Friday morning GMT+10). The target faction isn't in any conflict state currently... I know this because it's a faction whose movements I've been tracking for a few months now. I was away camping and now Monday afternoon (GMT+10) and my faction is at 75%... which neatly brings me to my actual question
Friday morning (GMT+10) my faction went into expansion (triggered by a different system, became pending when this system was only around 62%). I'd hoped tipping the 70% mark would trigger a war pending state (as usual, in my experience), but it hasn't, and come this morning (I'd been away all weekend camping) and now with my faction at 75% and the target faction not in any state currently, there's still no war pending. I'd hoped the war pending might've kicked in, shortcutting the expansion like it's done in the past.
Anyone know/had experience with using the war-expansion shortcut recently, and know if it's been patched out at some point? The only thing I can think of is that my war state can't queue while the expansion is still active... but that would be new behaviour.
tl;dr target faction has not been in any conflict states (just Boom) for over a week, and my faction has been over 60% for a week now, and +70% for the most recent four days,,, no war pending though. My faction has been in expansion since they hit 70%, so has the war/expansion shortcut been fixed?