Have you actually tested this? If so, what happens in the below situation:
Independent faction 1 owns the system, currently have 40% influence - Hands in 10 x 1 million faction bounties --> 100% influence goes to the independent faction therefore they gain 5% influence (for example)
Federation faction 1 wants to start a war with the independent faction noted above, they currently have 35% influence, however there are 4 Federation factions in the system - Hands in 10 x 1 million Federation bounties --> Bounties are shared amongst the 4 Federation factions. So how much influence will Federation faction 1 gain? I bet it's less than 5%.
And yes I know stations doesn't matter anymore.
you forget, that your indi faction will loose influence, as the federal factions win from superpower bounty redeems - and it will loose most for all of their gains, as it is the faction with most influence in system. in your exampel enough for triggering a conflict.
here you go:
system: IND 1 (controlling): 50%, FED 1 (1 station): 30, Fed 2: 15%, FED 3: 5%, IND 2: 5%
pre. 2.3.
superpower bounty redeem at a FED 1 own station worth 10 points of the 100 points influence bucket:
IND 1: 50/110= 45%
FED 1: 40/110 = 36%
FED 2: 15/110= 14%
FED 3: 5/110= 5%
IND 2: 5/ 110= 5%
as influence gains are distributed to losses to all other factions relative to their influence in system that leads to:
IND 1: 50/110= 43%
FED 1: 40/110 = 36%
FED 2: 15/110= 13%
FED 3: 5/110= 4%
IND 2: 5/ 110= 4%
after 2.3.
superpower bounty redeem for all FED worth 10 points of the 100 points influence bucket:
IND 1: 50/110= 45%
FED 1= 40/110= 36%
FED 2= 25/110= 22%
FED 3= 15/110= 14%
IND 2= 5%/110= 5%
as influence gains are distributed to losses to all other factions relative to their influence in system that leads to:
IND 1= 45 -3 -3,5 -4,5 % = - 11% = 39%
FED 1= 36 - 2 - 3 = 31%
FED 2 = 22 -1 - 1 = 20%
FED 3 = 14 -0,3 - 0,3 = 13, 3%
IND = 5 -0,3 -0,4 -0,5 = 3,7 %
... as you can see, the Indi faction looses 11% instead of 7% after 2.3. The FED 1 factions gains much less - 1% instead of 6%. the interesting question is whether FED 1 and FED 2, or FED 2 and FED 3 will get into a conflict before IND 1 and FED 1.
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this is just applying three broadly accepted principles on the new superpower mechanis:
1. it is easier for a low influence faction to gain influence, than for a high influence faction.
2. Influence gains of a faction are distributed as losses to all other factions relative to their influence in system.
3. bounty hunting is heavily weighted on number of bounty redeems.
the actual numbers will be different for population size (and other factors), but the general picture should look like above.