Was told I could find BGS experts here by goemon on this thread https://forums.frontier.co.uk/showthread.php/347822-Civil-Unrest-vs-Lockdown
We have an in game faction that is currently number 2 in system. We are trying to go to civil war with the controlling faction (CF) to take the system over.
The CF has all stations. There are RES sites in system. We are the only player backed faction in system.
We have been running missions, smuggling and killing security ships to bring the CFs influence closer to ours to spark civil war.
The CF is now pending: civil unrest and lockdown.
Since we don't own any stations and non of the other non controlling factions don't either. My guess is that civil unrest is what we want cause otherwise we can't bring our faction up.
How do we control which of the pending states goes into effect, as all the info I can find, refer to original post above) tells me smuggling and murder increase both?
Open to lockdown being ok, but if I'm not mistaken since the CF has all stations we'll be at a standstill and can't control the negative points draining from CF by performing positive actions to direct those points to our faction.
To get into a conflict to take over the system you need to do one of tow things;
Match influence with the controlling faction, or be at 60% for your faction to demand a conflict.
The only thing that could prevent it would be if the CF is in another conflict in another system. Check the System Status Summary from the main meny when you dock at a station, it'll be bottom-center, under GalNet but shoudl be listed first before other articles.
You cannot control which state goes first, its a result of various actions. When it goes pending, if other states are holding it up (like a conflict in another system) and how long the pending goes before its active, then its somewhat random as to which counts first.
If they control all the stations, you may not want a Lockdown, as it will block out the mission boards for any faction in that system, locking your group's progress by that means.
Provided your faction is not Anarchy, you could use the Res sites with KWS to get your own bounties to help your faction, and just not turn in the other bounties in this system - use a low sec outside it to get rid of them and not help them.
Other than that, all I can recommend is to keep at it. System size and traffic play parts in how well you will make progress but eventually you will make it.