Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

yttrbio · Mar 5, 2023

Disemboweled Ego said:
I'm fairly sure these will be able to attack again and the invasion system only looks at the current state at the end of the tick when making its next move.

Since 6 of the maelstroms put out 0 alerts in their second week, I don't think this is true, because they certainly still had systems within range. If the control -> alert connection itself is preserved during the week of the alert, then the information "this control system is alerting" could still be part of the current state. I guess we'll see. If they can re-alert 2 weeks in a row, then one of Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3 or Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3 can be hit, and one of HIP 20807 or Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3 can be hit, giving a total number of alerts 13-14 instead of 11-12.

Ian Doncaster · Mar 5, 2023

If there was a strong priority to attack inhabited systems, then we'd expect to see a second "establishment" phase in which the Maelstroms get sufficiently many control systems on their bubble side that they can always pick a new inhabited target, and then once that's done (almost) always go 5:0

At the start of this, each inhabited system captured would have just one new one in range, which would take an average of six weeks before it was also able to be used, so they'd need to get to at least 30 control systems on the edge of their bubble-facing hemisphere (plus infills [1], if it's a contested maelstrom).

Conversely, to complete the first establishment phase - assuming they're not completely starved for inhabited systems - probably only requires 20 or so control systems on the edge of their entire sphere.

So if they need three times the "surface area", then they'd be expected to hit this state at about sqrt(3) times the radius they needed to complete their first establishment phase, with a general tendency to move "up" the inhabited alerts scale as they moved towards it. That should be a partially testable hypothesis on the current data, though we may not have enough yet. [2]

Once the second phase was complete, they'd then be expanding entirely into inhabited systems, and therefore probably expand their containing radius somewhat faster as there are fewer inhabited systems to capture, and only one hemisphere would be eligible.

[1] Interestingly, this should mean that contested maelstroms reach establishment phase 2 sooner than they otherwise would, as re-attacking previously-saved systems will provide them with 5 inhabited targets at a lower surface area.

EDIT: [2] nothing conclusive that couldn't be explained by random selection within range - Oya has gone 4:4 or 5:0 a lot, but it has a lot of inhabited systems near it compared with the others.

Ralph Vargr · Mar 5, 2023

Would the Thargoid Point System use integer values?

Disemboweled Ego · Mar 5, 2023

yttrbio said:
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1 and Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12 alerted this tick, the rest did not.

Thinking about this more, yeah they'll be in ControlNew state next week which don't spawn alerts.

I tried making a list of systems that were "passed over" in previous invasions - meaning a system that could have attacked them attacked something else so (assuming it's not random) you can guess that the picked system is strictly better.

What exactly attacked what that tick could be ambigious, but that should only cause errors if it's something distance-based and an "Attacked ranks higher than not attacked" relationship should hold for most other cases. Any errors/missing systems in the source data could really mess this up too.

2022-12-22,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5
2022-12-22,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5
2022-12-22,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
2022-12-22,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0
2022-12-22,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1
2022-12-22,Col 285 Sector PB-E b12-1,Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1,Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-3
2022-12-22,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2
2022-12-22,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5
2022-12-22,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
2022-12-22,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96
2022-12-22,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-0
2022-12-29,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5
2022-12-29,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5
2022-12-29,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
2022-12-29,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0
2022-12-29,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1
2022-12-29,Col 285 Sector PB-E b12-1,Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1,Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-3
2022-12-29,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2
2022-12-29,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5
2022-12-29,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
2022-12-29,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96
2022-12-29,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-0
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-1
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5,Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1,Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-3,HIP 19600
2023-01-05,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,HIP 21125
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-1
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2,Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1,Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-3,HIP 19600
2023-01-12,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,HIP 21125
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18,HIP 18776,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-3
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18,HIP 18776,Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-17
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13,Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13,Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13,Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-0,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-81,HIP 18705
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0,HIP 21125
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9,HIP 21125
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3,Theemim
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18,HIP 18776,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-3
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18,HIP 18776,Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-17
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
2023-01-26,Vaipacnali,Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-3,Col 285 Sector RM-C b13-1
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14,Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14,Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14,Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-0,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-81,HIP 18705
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0,HIP 21125
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-9,HIP 21125
2023-01-26,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3,Theemim
2023-02-02,Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-3,Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-17
2023-02-02,Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3,Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-3
2023-02-02,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-1,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7,Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-0
2023-02-02,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6,Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-0
2023-02-02,Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3,Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0,Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1
2023-02-02,Vaipacnali,Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-3,Col 285 Sector RM-C b13-1
2023-02-02,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5,Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1,Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2
2023-02-02,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5,Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1,Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3
2023-02-02,Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2,Synuefe OU-D b45-0,Synuefe OU-D b45-1
2023-02-02,Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2,Synuefe OU-D b45-0,Synuefe OU-D b45-3
2023-02-02,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3,Theemim
2023-02-02,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5,Theemim
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15,Almar
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4
2023-02-09,HIP 18776,HIP 19501,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-3,Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-17
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3,Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-3
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-1,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7,Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-0
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6,Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-0
2023-02-09,Varlawoth,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3,Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0,Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1
2023-02-09,Varlawoth,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11,Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0
2023-02-09,Varlawoth,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11,Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5,Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3,Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2,Synuefe OU-D b45-0,Synuefe OU-D b45-1
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2,Synuefe OU-D b45-0,Synuefe OU-D b45-3
2023-02-16,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15,Almar
2023-02-16,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5
2023-02-16,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3
2023-02-16,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4
2023-02-16,HIP 18776,HIP 19501,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1
2023-02-16,Varlawoth,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10
2023-02-16,HIP 18705,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-3,Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-1
2023-02-16,Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-3,Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1
2023-02-16,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0
2023-02-16,Varlawoth,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11,Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0
2023-02-16,Varlawoth,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11,Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1
2023-02-16,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1,HIP 17310
2023-02-16,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1,Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-5
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-18,Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-22
2023-02-23,HIP 18705,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-3,Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-1
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-3,Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10,Col 285 Sector PW-D b12-0
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-18,Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-2
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10,Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1
2023-02-23,Varlawoth,Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0,Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1,HIP 17310
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Hyades Sector JG-O b6-3
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Hyades Sector NM-M b7-1
2023-02-23,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Hyades Sector SI-T c3-4
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1,Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2,Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-5
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-18,Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-22
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-17,Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0,Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1,Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0,Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10,Col 285 Sector PW-D b12-0
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-18,Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-2
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11,Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10,Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1
2023-03-02,Varlawoth,Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-0,Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12,Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-17,HIP 20807
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Hyades Sector JG-O b6-3
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Hyades Sector NM-M b7-1
2023-03-02,Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5,Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2,Hyades Sector SI-T c3-4

Edit: this is for the Thor maelstrom only, the full list would be almost 5k rows.

Ian Doncaster · Mar 5, 2023

Tick said:
2023-01-19,Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3,Theemim
2023-02-02,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3,Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5,Theemim
2023-02-09,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14,Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15,Almar

These three are I think the only cases on the list where an inhabited system could have been attacked but wasn't. There don't seem to be any cases where an inhabited system was one of two options for a given control and was picked - all of Thor's other pickups seem to have been the only option.

19 January: 21.78 LY for NGE, 30.15 LY for Theemin (attacker is 26.12 LY)
2 February: 17.21 LY for NGE, 30.15 LY for Theemin (attacker is 21.78 LY)
9 February: 35.03 LY for JGO, 31.78 LY for Almar (attacker is 28.18 LY)

2nd Feb was so far the only time that Thor has used its full Alert budget, so another possibility is it had already selected 17-19 points of systems by the time it got round to considering this one. In the other cases it had plenty of budget spare to take the inhabited one instead.

Disemboweled Ego · Mar 5, 2023

yttrbio said:
The following systems will be alerted:

To help refine that a bit based on the past alert data:

* These were already ignored twice in the past (or by two systems)
** These were already ignored 6x in the past (or by multiple systems)

Unktety
Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1 **

Two of:
Aruntei
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-4
Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-2 *
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-22 *
At least one of which will be Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-2 or Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-22

One or two of:
Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-2
Col 285 Sector PW-D b12-0 *

Two of:
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-2
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-3
Hyades Sector NH-M b7-3
but not both Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-2 and Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-3
(No past data on any of those)

Four of: (CORRECTED)
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-2
HIP 21548
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-5 *
Hyades Sector NM-M b7-1 *
Hyades Sector SI-T c3-4 *
Hyades Sector JG-O b6-3 *
Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5 **
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3 **
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4 **
With this matrix (only one entry allowed in each row or column)
[see image in original post]

I think systems that have been skipped over multiple times are more likely to be skipped again, but the exact odds could still be anything.

I think this puts us barely above random chance.

yttrbio · Mar 6, 2023

Disemboweled Ego said:
I wonder if there's any systems clusters the bubble that are completely safe because they're cut off by a 10Ly gap from everything else.

While doing something else, I found a system that seems to meet this. It's not a cluster, but Hyades Sector KN-K b8-4 near Leigong (16.3 ly) is the closest system to a maelstrom that has no neighbors within 10 ly. There are a few more around Leigong, but I haven't done an exhaustive search to see where else they may be, or whether there are any clusters.

Disemboweled Ego · Mar 6, 2023

yttrbio said:
Hyades Sector KN-K b8-4 near Leigong (16.3 ly) is the closest system to a maelstrom that has no neighbors within 10 ly

I've actually been parked there for a few days to gather maelstrom mats and fill up on massive energy surge data eventually and never noticed.

I did do a search for these near the bubble, but used cube distance instead and didn't look into it much besides trying to use that count to see if systems with more other systems in range are favored for invasions (Not sure if recovery skews that or if my code handled it correctly).

I'll do a proper search for those now.

Disemboweled Ego · Mar 6, 2023

This is what I came up with:

The distance is the distance after the system name is the distance to the maelstrom.

Oya

HIP 24329 18.93ly
HIP 8825 19.96ly
HIP 29036 29.52ly
Cephei Sector BA-A d124 30.22ly
Aningan 37.62ly
BD+73 447 46.30ly
LHS 2001 48.05ly
Bibrocorna 49.54ly

Leigong

Hyades Sector KN-K b8-4 16.32ly
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-4 19.19ly
HIP 10047 19.64ly
111 Xi Piscium 23.91ly
Arietis Sector FG-Y d65 31.90ly
HIP 6834 33.88ly
Col 285 Sector BG-E b12-2 41.20ly
HIP 11836 44.77ly

Thor

Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-56 29.22ly
Synuefe QO-Q c21-8 35.20ly
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-87 38.09ly
Col 285 Sector VC-C b13-0 38.33ly
Rho Fornacis 42.27ly
Col 285 Sector FA-Q c5-1 45.24ly

Raijin

Pegasi Sector NX-T b3-0 40.58ly

Cocijo

Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-36 27.74ly
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-94 31.55ly
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-0 37.15ly
Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-2 40.39ly
Col 285 Sector UY-Q c5-12 46.78ly
Hyades Sector YU-N b7-3 46.84ly

Indra

Arietis Sector EQ-Y c17 32.52ly
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c7 41.48ly

Hadad

HIP 28240 23.79ly
Col 285 Sector YI-Z b14-3 38.49ly

Taranis

Aweti 40.91ly
Hyades Sector LH-V c2-13 43.01ly
Hyades Sector NX-K b8-3 48.99ly

Ned Flandalorian · Mar 7, 2023

Disemboweled Ego said:
Oya

HIP 8825 19.96ly

Well this is interesting - it's not a safe haven since it was invaded when the maelstrom arrived and wasn't defended so fell to thargoid control. But if we could liberate it, it would presumably stay that way permanently...

I haven't checked for other possibilites, I only recognize HIP 8825 because I was aware it didn't get defended.

Disemboweled Ego · Mar 9, 2023

yttrbio said:
Four of: (CORRECTED)

I think only 3 of those got alerted with the rest of the predictions being accurate. I'm assuming its because of invasion systems being ineffective.

There's no alerts in systems we didn't predict from Thor, right?

yttrbio · Mar 9, 2023

I'm seeing 4 of those, as predicted:
Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3
HIP 21548
Hyades Sector NM-M b7-1

The prediction is accurate, from what I can tell.

Disemboweled Ego · Mar 9, 2023

I think Hyades Sector NM-M b7-1 wasn't showing for me so that explains it.

Ian Doncaster · Mar 10, 2023

Leigong also falls back slightly below 20 points of Alerts to 16 - I guess it's not entirely broken out yet.

Surprisingly, so does Oya: it's on 19 points missing a potential unpopulated Alert. I'm surprised it couldn't find one but maybe it's more constrained than it looks?

Ian Doncaster · Mar 11, 2023

Looking at Thor's expansions and making some assumptions about which order Control systems picked their Alert in, almost all of the Alert selections could be explained by "if the Control has multiple choices, it picks the closest to itself"

This is requiring a selection order of:

Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15 before Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-18
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11 before Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1 before Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2 before Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1

The only exception to the above theory on Thor's entire Alert set is that it suggests that Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2 should have gone for Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4 (7.64) rather than Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3 (8.32)

If I instead use "minimise dist-control + dist-maelstrom" for new Alerts, that fixes Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2's choice but breaks the choices for Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-18 and Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15. Other criteria like distance to Sol (as a vague proxy for "heading towards bubble") or connectivity of the new system don't seem to help either, and both HF-G systems are stars-only ones with no apparent interest to distinguish them (the one it didn't go for has one more star).

So it seems a reasonable explanation for the majority of moves here, but not quite good enough (and I'm fairly sure there have been some other alerts in previous weeks that it doesn't really fit, too)

Disemboweled Ego · Mar 11, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
"if the Control has multiple choices, it picks the closest to itself"

From the data I compiled when I looked at this last time (so not including this tick) this is an ok metric - probably the best I've found so far.

Logic	Hit	Miss
Distance to Attacker	3356	1483
Distance to Attacker + Maelstrom	3351	1488
Distance from Attacked to Maelstrom	3187	1652

There's bound to be errors in my data too due to guessing attackers and double counting systems, it's probably slightly biased towards "hit" due to liberated systems deeper in thargoid territory having more potential attackers.

I didn't dump the population of the threatened systems so I can't trivially add a check for that, but 69% accuracy is nice already.

Ian Doncaster · Mar 11, 2023

Disemboweled Ego said:
There's bound to be errors in my data too due to guessing attackers and double counting systems

Definitely, if we knew more about which systems were attacking which it would help, but I don't see a way to do that in general. If I just take a naive "could this control system in isolation get closer" then for Thor this cycle I get 3 hits and 5 misses (37.5%), ignoring ones with only one option, or 8 hits and 5 misses (62%) including the ones with only one option.

Presuming the most compatible order of attack it's 7 or 12 hits and 1 miss which is a lot better, but far too time-consuming a set of calculations to do by hand for any larger problems, and I don't have time to write a proper calculation program for it

Disemboweled Ego · Mar 12, 2023

I didn't get much further refining the predictions by using population as a guide, though it did give more different results depending on if distance to attacker or distance to attacker+maelstrom was used.

If we assume the significant distance is always 10Ly then a graph of all 10Ly connections between the controlled systems and maelstroms might actually not have an unreasonable number of connections and it would give a bunch of new metrics to analyze/try to predict based on.

Ned Flandalorian · Mar 13, 2023

Thinking more about the isolated control systems (no other systems within 10LYs) that were lost when the maelstroms arrived... are there any pairs of systems like that? So two thargoid controlled systems that only have each other within 10LYs, one (or both) will be previously human inhabited.

Disemboweled Ego · Mar 15, 2023

I guess this confirms they weren't prioritizing populated systems before, but the wording is weird: https://forums.frontier.co.uk/threads/thargoid-war-balance-changes.615088/ ?

This would make it easier to predict with more systems being locked in due to having populations, but also means freshly liberated systems are more likely to get re-invaded constantly?