Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

Ian Doncaster · May 11, 2023

So ... did the Thargoids change their strategy with U15?

Taranis: 80% - the failure was the semi-expected one at HR 1812
Leigong: 80% - Arietis Sector GG-Y d63 was targeted unexpectedly as Target 4 but the model predicted that the recapture of HIP 11134 should have protected it
Indra: 100%
Oya: 100%
Cocijo: 100%
Thor: 80% - HIP 18513 was skipped as semi-expected, and then on the reserve list HIP 22031 was also skipped in the same way, its only control having been used on the line above.
Raijin: 100%
Hadad: 20%! - Yan Zangata as expected, then so many of the remainder were skipped that it nearly ran off the reserve list entirely (and probably would have if it wasn't still on 4 Alerts). See below

Leigong: Arietis Sector GG-Y d63 may have been attacked from HIP 10921 at a distance of 10.013 LY - attacks from slightly greater than 10.0 LY have been recorded in the past. I will adjust the report to show potential attacks like this one and maybe we can narrow down the precise limit over time.

Taranis/Thor: the outcomes here provide further evidence for the theory that the nearest Control to the Maelstrom is always used to deliver the attack - to the point where it seems unlikely that the results we've seen are due to chance. I'm going to adjust the model now to assume this is true, and we'll see what breaks next time as a result.

Hadad. What is going on in Hadad? Here's the final prediction, with the systems actually hit highlighted, and skipped systems in red.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Yan Zangata	22.38	2	2	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10; HIP 30158;	Yes	1
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-22	32.82	1	1	Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-4;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector WD-Y b15-7	32.82	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-4;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-8	32.84	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-2;	No	-0
Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-2	32.86	1	1	Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-0;	No	-0.4
L2 Puppis	33.07	5	5	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7; etc	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector NG-D b13-1	33.10	2	2	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80;	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-3	33.11	1	1	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-5	33.19	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-3;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-6	33.22	2	2	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2;	No	-1
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-2	33.27	4	4	HIP 29217; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-2; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4; etc	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector KL-D b13-7	33.46	2	2	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1; HIP 32718;	No	-0

Still only four Alerts - and still no clue as to why there's only four Alerts: the heavy counter-attack on Thor has ruled out a lot of possibilities - but seven apparently fine targets were skipped over.

It can't be control exhaustion - none of those targeting controls were doing anything else. It can't be distance to Sol - TH-B b14-6 is further out than a lot of the skipped systems. Any ideas for why Hadad is behaving so differently to the other Maelstroms?

EDIT: to dig up another earlier theory, it's not that the activity around Hadad has somehow disconnected those controls - they can all trace a route back to the Maelstrom with 10LY hops through other controls.

Ian Doncaster · May 11, 2023

Narwhal Nose report generated 11 May

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

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Calculating Taranis
Read 125 control systems and 866 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
63 Eridani	19.56	1	1	Hyades Sector PN-T c3-9;	Yes	-0.3
Senocidi	20.26	3	3	Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8; HIP 24076; Hyades Sector LH-V c2-6;	Yes	-0.4
Awara	22.00	4	4	Hyades Sector EB-N b7-0; HIP 23593; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-86; etc	Yes	0.4
HR 1812	26.62	1	1	Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1;	Yes	0.8
Namayu	27.10	2	2	Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b5; Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b4;	Yes	0.5
Ge	27.68	5	5	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-81; Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14; Haushu; etc	Yes	0.2
Trianguli Sector BA-A d84	27.81	2	2	Trianguli Sector GG-Y c18; Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-0;	No	0.9
HIP 26926	28.17	4	4	Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14; Haushu; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; etc	Yes	0.3
HIP 22052	28.51	1	1	Trianguli Sector FG-Y d96;	Yes	0.6
HIP 23128	28.80	1	1	Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-0;	No	0.8

Taranis focusing on inhabited systems again, as expected.

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Calculating Leigong
Read 163 control systems and 831 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Pathamon	22.06	6	6	HIP 7277; Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56; Arietis Sector MX-U c2-17; etc	Yes	0.5
Arietis Sector YJ-R b4-3	35.37	1	1	Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1;	No	0.6
Arietis Sector WO-R b4-4	35.68	1	1	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-4 (9.934 LY);	No	0.6
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-4	37.59	2	2	Arietis Sector JM-W d1-83; HIP 6380;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-3	38.32	2	2	HIP 6380; HIP 6869;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-0	38.33	3	3	Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-4; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-0; Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-2;	No	0.8
HIP 6001	39.69	1	1	Col 285 Sector DG-O c6-13;	No	-0.5
Arietis Sector QS-U b2-2	39.83	4	4	Arietis Sector TD-T b3-0; HIP 11309 (9.962 LY); Arietis Sector FG-Y d49; etc	No	-0.6
HIP 10710	40.03	1	1	Arietis Sector FG-Y d68;	No	-0.2
Hyades Sector CB-O b6-0	40.52	2	2	Hyades Sector CB-O b6-1; HIP 11309;	No	-0.8
Arietis Sector SD-T b3-0	40.75	1	1	Arietis Sector FG-Y d49;	No	-0.6

A couple of single-target systems but no particular reason to expect they'll be missed

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Calculating Indra
Read 151 control systems and 840 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 20527	22.54	20	20	Hyadum I; HIP 20916; HIP 20397; etc	Yes	0.9
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.29	6	6	HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc	No	0.6
69 Upsilon Tauri	26.47	6	6	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; HIP 21008; etc	Yes	0.8
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18	26.59	4	4	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4; Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9; etc	Yes	-0.4
HIP 21380	26.61	6	6	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1 (9.996 LY); HIP 21008; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; etc	Yes	0.8
HIP 20850	26.99	13	13	77 Theta-1 Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	0.9
57 h Tauri	27.03	11	11	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; HR 1358; etc	No	1

Indra in its usual tightly-connected space so this should be very solid

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Calculating Oya
Read 74 control systems and 921 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Muncheim	23.56	3	3	HIP 7338; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0;	Yes	0.7
HIP 2422	24.01	5	5	HIP 8525; HIP 4041; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; etc	Yes	0.5
Jaoi	25.46	1	1	Cephei Sector ZE-A c8;	Yes	-0.4
Gliese 3050	25.58	1	1	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0;	No	0.6
Cephei Sector EL-Y c23	26.55	1	1	MCC 105;	No	1
HIP 38225	26.96	2	2	Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1; Ikpen;	Yes	-0.3
Orong	27.13	3	3	HR 1107 (9.906 LY); Ikpen; Cephei Sector YJ-A c8;	Yes	-0.2
Benanekpeno	27.19	2	2	Ikpen; Cephei Sector YJ-A c8;	Yes	0
Elboongzi	27.39	1	1	Lyncis Sector VU-P b5-5;	Yes	-0.9
SPOCS 280	27.39	1	1	Cephei Sector CV-Y b1;	No	0.9
Cephei Sector YZ-Y b4	27.57	1	1	HIP 4617;	Yes	-0.6
Bhotepa	28.23	1	1	Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4;	Yes	0.3

Nothing unusual in Oya, I'd expect these to go through as normal.

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Calculating Cocijo
Read 200 control systems and 792 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5	26.49	10	10	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5 (9.981 LY); etc	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-9	26.54	1	1	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-5 (10.004 LY);	No	-1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.01	5	5	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; etc	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1	30.45	4	4	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-3; etc	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-3	30.53	1	1	Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-2;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1	30.64	5	5	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-116 (10.005 LY); etc	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4	30.71	5	5	Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; etc	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-1	30.83	2	2	HIP 37844; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-7;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-0	30.85	3	3	Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-7; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-23;	No	-0.2

VY-Q c5-9 will provide an early test of the new Control range checks - TS-H is closer than the one from last week in Leigong, so I'd expect this to go through. If not, the reserves look solid.

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Calculating Thor
Read 156 control systems and 835 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-3	31.53	2	2	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-4; Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-5;	No	0.2
HIP 18702	34.83	1	1	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1;	Yes	-0.5
Col 285 Sector ML-E b12-5	35.72	1	1	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-5;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-16	40.92	1	1	Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-3;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-2	41.48	1	1	Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3	41.50	1	1	HIP 20807;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-1	42.12	2	2	Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3; HIP 16798;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-5	42.68	1	1	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-15;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-0	42.74	1	1	Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-3;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector PW-D b12-2	42.77	1	1	Col 285 Sector PW-D b12-0;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15	42.89	1	1	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-8	43.34	1	1	Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-2;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-2	43.80	1	1	HIP 16798;	No	-0.4
Gliese 2032	44.14	1	1	Hyades Sector NH-M b7-3;	No	0.6
HIP 22159	44.43	2	2	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3; Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4;	No	0.2
Synuefe QO-Q c21-5	44.85	1	1	Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-0;	No	-0.7
HIP 22538	44.90	1	1	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4;	No	0.5

A little bit of a test of the "nearest Control first" theory here but it should be fairly solid

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Calculating Raijin
Read 170 control systems and 821 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Aurus	25.72	7	7	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 (9.997 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20; Iduni; etc	Yes	0.1
Ngolite	26.89	10	10	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; etc	Yes	0.8
Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0	26.94	1	1	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4;	No	-0.8
HIP 116052	26.96	4	4	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3; Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-112; Wanmi; etc	No	0.1
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-3	26.97	10	10	Chakma; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No	0.2
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-1	27.01	4	4	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4; etc	No	0.9
Koko Oh	27.07	12	12	HIP 113535; Vistnero; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; etc	Yes	0.6
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-0	27.10	4	4	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-3; etc	No	-0.8

Another fairly normal set of Alerts at high confidence

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Calculating Hadad
Read 145 control systems and 848 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Bi Dhorora	18.47	4	4	Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Montioch; Omumba; etc	Yes	0.3
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2	21.11	1	1	Montioch;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3	22.02	1	1	HR 2204 (9.985 LY);	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-5	26.05	1	1	Vasupari (9.991 LY);	No	0.8
Col 285 Sector RX-Z b14-0	27.41	1	1	Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-22	32.82	1	1	Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-4;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector WD-Y b15-7	32.82	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-4;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-8	32.84	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-2;	No	-0
Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-2	32.86	1	1	Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-0;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector NG-D b13-1	33.10	2	2	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80;	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-3	33.11	3	3	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-61; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-5;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-5	33.19	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-3;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-3	33.33	2	2	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-61; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-5;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector KL-D b13-7	33.46	2	2	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1; HIP 32718;	No	-0

Cooldowns on some previous recaptures should be over, so it's back to a bunch of closer-in targets this time round. At this stage, 4 or even 5 won't get it as far as MR-M c7-22 ... if reserves get used I've marked previously-skipped systems in red - note that IB-N c7-3 does have a wider range of control systems to use to target it this week, whereas it only had OR-B b14-0 last week. But really, anything could happen.

19 populated alerts predicted, so the wave of invasions might subside a bit, but there's still so many of them active that it'll take a while.

Aleks Zuno · May 11, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
Any ideas for why Hadad is behaving so differently to the other Maelstroms?

It is a bit silly and far-fetched, and there ought to be numerous counter-examples around other Maelstroms, but in the absence of anything else...

Recall first an observation I made earlier:

Aleks Zuno said:
At minimum I can try leaving UC-B b14-4 intact to explore that idea, and while it sounds a bit silly, leaving YY-X b15-4 also just in case the specific problem is that the Maelstrom distance matches WD-Y b15-7 at two decimal places (actual difference two thousandths).

As @CMDR Vulkarius keeps reminding me, decimal places are not how these things work, but moreover he tells me also that the actual system positions work in units of 1/32 Ly. To choose an apt example, the EDSM page for HIP 30377 shows 178.78125, -81.71875, -47.9375 where those fractional parts are 25/32, 23/32, 30/32. 25 being coprime with 32, and more strongly 23 being simply prime, indicates that 1/32 is at least a candidate quantum. Apparently all known systems are that way!

In any case, suppose that 1/32 = 0.03125 quantum applies also to distances, then review everything inexplicable by the present model:

Ian Doncaster said:
Leigong: Arietis Sector GG-Y d63 may have been attacked from HIP 10921 at a distance of 10.013 LY - attacks from slightly greater than 10.0 LY have been recorded in the past. I will adjust the report to show potential attacks like this one and maybe we can narrow down the precise limit over time.

Well, that is within 1/32 of 10 light-years. Even if we suppose that it rounds to the nearest discrete multiple of 1/32, note that 1/64 is 0.015625, so it is also within 1/64 and therefore still rounds to 10 light-years. If the attack distance limit includes the 10 light-year mark as quantised that way, that would admit HIP 10921 reaching Arietis Sector GG-Y d63.

Ian Doncaster said:
Still only four Alerts - and still no clue as to why there's only four Alerts: the heavy counter-attack on Thor has ruled out a lot of possibilities - but seven apparently fine targets were skipped over.

Suppose the Thargoid council follows this process, where I have highlighted the parts which are simple to state but contain possible numeric difficulties:

Make a big list of all the eligible Control attackers and their targets, in no particular order.
Scan over all the targets, tracking whichever is the single closest target.
Attack that target using the closest Control system (scanned similarly?) and remove both systems from further consideration.
Repeat for five total choices.

With the above quantum, targets must differ by 0.03125 to be defined as having different distances. Looking at the bypassed target systems:

Target	Distance	Quantum below	Quantum above
MR-M c7-22	32.816384	32.8125	32.84375
WD-Y b15-7	32.818586	32.8125	32.84375
SX-Z b14-8	32.844255	32.84375	32.875
TX-Z b14-2	32.855998	32.84375	32.875
L2 Puppis	33.068540	33.0625	33.09375
NG-D b13-1	33.095993	33.09375	33.125
IB-N c7-3	33.113515	33.09375	33.125
YY-X b15-5	33.191869	33.1875	33.21875
TH-B b14-6	33.220514	33.21875	33.25

The first six seem to fit three pairs with each pair having Maelstrom distances which fall within the same 1/32 quantum interval. Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-5 is a rogue case here with no apparent partner system to follow the same pattern, ~~not even an unlisted system within 321/32 Ly~~. One may have to appeal to the fact that it is only one increment away from TH-B b14-6, where rounding would both result in 33.21875, where perhaps something breaks partially but ultimately the latter becomes a target. That also fits L2 Puppis, which lies one interval below NG-D b13-1, but is closer to the lower end and would round downwards.

It does not explain why there are but four total Alerts and it is quite far-fetched, so consider it presented with the sincerest apologies of the Imperial Navy mathematics department if it turns out to be nothing, and moreover for leaving you with the task of checking through previous target lists at other Maelstroms to search for counter-examples. As I noted initially, there ought to be many counter-examples especially as distances increase, although it is also quite possible that they all fall beyond the first few targets such that those cases never fall under review by the Thargoid council.

Additional: Unless there actually is some other candidate target which would enter the main list and pair with YY-X b15-5, if you consider a range increased with 1/32?

Ian Doncaster · May 11, 2023

Aleks Zuno said:
Well, that is within 1/32 of 10 light-years. Even if we suppose that it rounds to the nearest discrete multiple of 1/32, note that 1/64 is 0.015625, so it is also within 1/64 and therefore still rounds to 10 light-years. If the attack distance limit includes the 10 light-year mark as quantised that way, that would admit HIP 10921 reaching Arietis Sector GG-Y d63.

That I think is the likely reason, and I've set the upper distance limit to 10+1/32 for now to see what happens. I believe yttrbio had a 10.02 example somewhere, so it may well be rounding down rather than to the nearest, which would be usual for an integer truncation (assuming the base measurement unit is 1/32 LY)

Aleks Zuno said:
As I noted initially, there ought to be many counter-examples especially as distances increase, although it is also quite possible that they all fall beyond the first few targets such that those cases never fall under review by the Thargoid council.

Recent counter-example: on 20 April Cocijo hit Col 285 Sectors VY-Q c5-23 and YT-F b12-3, both at 30.01 LY (and both in the range 30 < D < 30+(1/64) so all rounding should be identical), as Alerts 4 and 5. I can see several other pairs which are in the same 1/100th at Cocijo and Raijin recently though haven't checked if they're also in the same 1/32th however banded.

Aleks Zuno said:
It does not explain why there are but four total Alerts

I wonder if skipping a system has a budget cost. Even a tiny fractional one - 0.01, or similar - would leave it unable to claim a fifth system. Anything up to 4/7 (on the 20-point scale) would be possible while leaving enough to reach GQ-O c6-2 last week.

On that basis, this week if you let them get their inner 5 they should actually get the inner 5. On the other hand, if you push them a couple of lines into the red list, we might get some key information on whether it's the target or the source control from what happens to IB-N c7-3, since RN-T d3-61 was definitely used to launch an attack in previous weeks. Either way we learn something, I hope.

Aleks Zuno · May 11, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
That I think is the likely reason, and I've set the upper distance limit to 10+1/32 for now to see what happens.

Do you have historic versions of the galaxy which could be tested again with different distances? An excellent result would be if something such as this occurred:

Adding 1/32 improves the accuracy of past predictions, by including systems which were attacked unexpectedly at the time.
Adding another 1/32 damages the accuracy of the previous test, by including systems erroneously which were not attacked at the time.

Ian Doncaster said:
Recent counter-example: on 20 April Cocijo hit Col 285 Sectors VY-Q c5-23 and YT-F b12-3, both at 30.01 LY (and both in the range 30 < D < 30+(1/64) so all rounding should be identical), as Alerts 4 and 5.

Given the blatant 32⁻¹ unit for system positions, I wonder now whether distances have a place-value difference between being closer or farther than 32 Ly, where distances within 32 Ly enjoy an extra 32⁻² place as far as comparisons are concerned. Rounding down:

Col 285	M. Cocijo	32⁰	32⁻¹	32⁻²
VY-Q c5-23	30.010968	30	0	11
YT-F b12-3	30.013897	30	0	14

That would be much like standard form, but with 32 instead of 10. If there are at most three comparison rounds and having a 32¹ place expends one of them, perhaps that could leave 32⁻¹ as the finest comparison? Either way, your report shows at least one new opportunity at M. Leigong to explore further the general idea of systems having very close Maelstrom distances:

Arietis	M. Leigong	32¹	32⁰	32⁻¹
DW-N b6-3	38.316769	1	6	10
ZU-P b5-0	38.334899	1	6	10

Again, apologies if all of that is much too far-fetched; it really is I will shush as soon as there are any less unlikely ideas!

Ian Doncaster said:
On that basis, this week if you let them get their inner 5 they should actually get the inner 5. On the other hand, if you push them a couple of lines into the red list, we might get some key information on whether it's the target or the source control from what happens to IB-N c7-3, since RN-T d3-61 was definitely used to launch an attack in previous weeks. Either way we learn something, I hope.

Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1 is a possibility for one place, which may be enough to induce the effect in mind. Stopping a second attack would need a bit more help because it implies pushing further in towards M. Hadad than with Fotlandjera, which was already almost too much for one Wing to manage, so I am thinking to leave those five as they are and discover next week whether the prediction is then accurate and whether M. Hadad gets its fifth Alert back.

The first INIV target definitely must be Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1 to protect HIP 18702 at M. Thor, a very easy choice and hopefully should leave your nearest-Control check intact! After that, at some point we want to move in for a Bagalya recapture at M. Hadad plus clearing the remaining nearby attackers, although I will check later whether that would disrupt anything above. I will see if we can move those Arietis systems further up the M. Leigong list, and otherwise I imagine it will be a mix of securing Recovery systems from future attack and perhaps visiting another Maelstrom and trimming the problem a bit. I do not imagine that will move more empty systems into those top places this cycle, though one has to make a start somewhere!

Ian Doncaster · May 11, 2023

Aleks Zuno said:
Do you have historic versions of the galaxy which could be tested again with different distances? An excellent result would be if something such as this occurred:

Looking at the previous predictions, they mainly failed for more obvious reasons, and I think this is the first time a system showed up that wasn't on the list at all. I could potentially replicate an earlier state from yttrbio's spreadsheet but I suspect errors due to getting control cooldowns wrong would be more likely.

Aleks Zuno said:
Given the blatant 32⁻¹ unit for system positions, I wonder now whether distances have a place-value difference between being closer or farther than 32 Ly, where distances within 32 Ly enjoy an extra 32⁻² place as far as comparisons are concerned. Rounding down:

Thor, 20 April, attacked Col 285 QR-C b13-4 and ML-E b12-0 at 38.30559175 and 38.30742727 LY respectively as Alerts 4 and 5

That's fractional parts of a LY of 9.776/32 and 9.8368/32 which should both round to the same value under any rounding method

Aleks Zuno · May 11, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
Thor, 20 April, attacked Col 285 QR-C b13-4 and ML-E b12-0 at 38.30559175 and 38.30742727 LY respectively as Alerts 4 and 5
That's fractional parts of a LY of 9.776/32 and 9.8368/32 which should both round to the same value under any rounding method

Not that, then! I will leave it for now and try to remain vigilant for any other patterns, or something particular to M. Hadad or to those systems. It could be something as simple as the Thargoid council missing some cartographic data!

CMDR Vulkarius · May 11, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
That I think is the likely reason, and I've set the upper distance limit to 10+1/32 for now to see what happens.

It could also be comparing the squared distance to 100 where a simple rounding error would map to sqrt 100.5, or truncation error to sqrt 101.
Those are around 10.024969 and 10.049876 which are either side of 10+1/32 and could explain things if that turns out to be a little off!
Now that I think about it, I should also try fiddling INTRA to look for massacre missions slightly beyond 10 LY in case it works there as well.
I'm surprised that wasn't mentioned already - Aleksandra will be VERY interested if that also works and adds new bounty hunting results!

Thanks for all of this Ian - it felt great to get Hadad sorted a few weeks ago and manipulating the attacks was a major part of it.
I described it all on Hutton radio a few weeks ago but was a bit remiss not to drop a message here!

Ian Doncaster · May 12, 2023

In other news, unlike the other Thargoid sample types, thargoidtissuesampletype6 (Glaive) and thargoidtissuesample9a-c (Titan) appear to have an actual demand level set for them, similar to that for other salvage/rescue goods. Doesn't appear to have any economy dependency, you can sell them anywhere, and the prices are pretty high for the Titan ones.

Whether this is significant or just makes it more obvious that they should have set some demand at some economy [1] for the other samples too, I'm not sure.

[1] It doesn't make a massive amount of sense that e.g. Tourism or Extraction economies pay the same as High-Tech ones do. Maybe what's needed is a specific "Xeno-Research" economy type, which produces nothing (well, H Fuel and Biowaste, perhaps) but has a standing demand for Thargoid, Guardian and NSP samples? That could then be applied to a few hand-picked stations like Holloway Biosciences in Colonia, and some Aegis and Azimuth facilities in the bubble.

Jmanis · May 12, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
In other news, unlike the other Thargoid sample types, thargoidtissuesampletype6 (Glaive) and thargoidtissuesample9a-c (Titan) appear to have an actual demand level set for them, similar to that for other salvage/rescue goods. Doesn't appear to have any economy dependency, you can sell them anywhere, and the prices are pretty high for the Titan ones.

Whether this is significant or just makes it more obvious that they should have set some demand at some economy [1] for the other samples too, I'm not sure.

[1] It doesn't make a massive amount of sense that e.g. Tourism or Extraction economies pay the same as High-Tech ones do. Maybe what's needed is a specific "Xeno-Research" economy type, which produces nothing (well, H Fuel and Biowaste, perhaps) but has a standing demand for Thargoid, Guardian and NSP samples? That could then be applied to a few hand-picked stations like Holloway Biosciences in Colonia, and some Aegis and Azimuth facilities in the bubble.

Main thing on my mind is how do we get them... there appears to be nothing to target with limpets.

Ian Doncaster · May 17, 2023

Just one minor update this week, as most Control recaptures have been cleanup outside the current perimeter: new prediction for Thor

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-3	31.53	2	2	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-4; Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-5;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector ML-E b12-5	35.72	1	1	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-5;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-16	40.92	1	1	Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-3;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-2	41.48	1	1	Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3	41.50	1	1	HIP 20807;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-1	42.12	2	2	Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3; HIP 16798;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-5	42.68	1	1	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-15;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-0	42.74	1	1	Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-3;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector PW-D b12-2	42.77	1	1	Col 285 Sector PW-D b12-0;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15	42.89	1	1	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-8	43.34	1	1	Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-2;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-2	43.80	1	1	HIP 16798;	No	-0.4
Gliese 2032	44.14	1	1	Hyades Sector NH-M b7-3;	No	0.6
HIP 22159	44.43	2	2	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3; Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4;	No	0.2
Synuefe QO-Q c21-5	44.85	1	1	Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-0;	No	-0.7
HIP 22538	44.90	1	1	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4;	No	0.5
Synuefe QO-Q c21-1	45.23	1	1	Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-2;	No	-0.7

This has far more reserves than it needs now that we're getting better at working out which Control systems are sleeping after a previous Alert. I'll trim the list a bit for next time.

Grimscrub · May 18, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
Narwhal Nose report generated 11 May

Now the alerts are visible and servers are up, 39/40 were the top 5 systems.

Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-9

was skipped in Cocijo for some reason. That noted, the 6th projection, Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1 rounded out the table.

The full 40 systems this week rather than 39, wonder if that was fixed in the background too.

Ian Doncaster · May 18, 2023

Grimscrub said:
Now the alerts are visible and servers are up, 39/40 were the top 5 systems.

Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-9

was skipped in Cocijo for some reason. That noted, the 6th projection, Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1 rounded out the table.

The full 40 systems this week rather than 39, wonder if that was fixed in the background too.

VY-Q c5-9 was slightly more than 10 LY from its nearest control system, so in that sense it's not surprising that it was skipped.

But it was closer at 10.004 than the 10.013 successfully used in the previous week.

Hmm - that does suggest that there's some sort of rounding going on, but in a way that gives "jagged edges" - similar to the Political Expansion cube, but much smaller irregularities. Reverse engineering that might be tricky with so few examples.

EDIT: only option I've found which does put last week's within 10 LY but this week's not is if the X, Y and Z differences are rounded down to the next 0.1 LY (which affects positive and negative directions differently, of course) - then this week's is 10.02 but last week's ends up truncated to 9.996. I find it hard to believe that "rounding down to the next tenth before sticking into Pythagoras" is actually what's going on, but we'll need an actual counter-example...
EDIT 2: ah, good, it's not something quite that bizarre - that gives the wrong answer for Vasupari's attack this week.

Grimscrub said:
The full 40 systems this week rather than 39, wonder if that was fixed in the background too.

Hadad could place 5 without getting as far as the ones it skipped last week, so that may have some connection, too.

Disemboweled Ego · May 18, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
EDIT: only option I've found which does put last week's within 10 LY but this week's not is if the X, Y and Z differences are rounded down to the next 0.1 LY (which affects positive and negative directions differently, of course) - then this week's is 10.02 but last week's ends up truncated to 9.996. I find it hard to believe that "rounding down to the next tenth before sticking into Pythagoras" is actually what's going on, but we'll need an actual counter-example...
EDIT 2: ah, good, it's not something quite that bizarre - that gives the wrong answer for Vasupari's attack this week.

It might have something to do with the octree cubes and the minimum coordinate precision/remainder of any non hand authored/catalog system being something like 1/64 = 0.015625 .

Grimscrub · May 18, 2023

One correction... apparently 18702 has decided it doesn't want to be in alert after all, after showing the alert state in galaxy map this morning.
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3 has replaced it, the #6 prediction.
I may have been too optimistic about 'oh its 3 hours past downtime, the tick will have processed before/while they were updating'.

Ian Doncaster · May 18, 2023

Disemboweled Ego said:
It might have something to do with the octree cubes and the minimum coordinate precision/remainder of any non hand authored/catalog system being something like 1/64 = 0.015625 .

1/32 LY is the position precision - but I can't see a way to make that work.

If you treat 1/32LY as the native unit, then the differences between system positions are themselves all multiples of 1/32 unit along the axes, so there's no rounding there. Rounding or flooring either the final distance or the squared distance to the nearest 1/32 doesn't help get a situation where Cocijo this week fails but Leigong last week succeeds at a greater distance, so if it's rounding-based it has to go further than that.

Assuming that the Thargoid sim doesn't know the system positions natively and is being passed them by some other service which rounds them to 0.1 or 0.01 precision instead doesn't seem to help either - I can't get Cocijo to be out of range and Leigong to be in range without also breaking some other expansions we know worked.

Grimscrub said:
One correction... apparently 18702 has decided it doesn't want to be in alert after all, after showing the alert state in galaxy map this morning.
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3 has replaced it, the #6 prediction.

That's as expected - Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1 was recaptured, so a revised prediction for Thor was issued at post #451
(The Thargoids not noticing and trying to Alert it anyway for three hours is rather less expected!)

Mrjupp · May 18, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
So ... did the Thargoids change their strategy with U15?

Taranis: 80% - the failure was the semi-expected one at HR 1812

Leigong: 80% - Arietis Sector GG-Y d63 was targeted unexpectedly as Target 4 but the model predicted that the recapture of HIP 11134 should have protected it

Indra: 100%

Oya: 100%

Cocijo: 100%

Thor: 80% - HIP 18513 was skipped as semi-expected, and then on the reserve list HIP 22031 was also skipped in the same way, its only control having been used on the line above.

Raijin: 100%

Hadad: 20%! - Yan Zangata as expected, then so many of the remainder were skipped that it nearly ran off the reserve list entirely (and probably would have if it wasn't still on 4 Alerts). See below

Leigong: Arietis Sector GG-Y d63 may have been attacked from HIP 10921 at a distance of 10.013 LY - attacks from slightly greater than 10.0 LY have been recorded in the past. I will adjust the report to show potential attacks like this one and maybe we can narrow down the precise limit over time.

Taranis/Thor: the outcomes here provide further evidence for the theory that the nearest Control to the Maelstrom is always used to deliver the attack - to the point where it seems unlikely that the results we've seen are due to chance. I'm going to adjust the model now to assume this is true, and we'll see what breaks next time as a result.

Hadad. What is going on in Hadad? Here's the final prediction, with the systems actually hit highlighted, and skipped systems in red.

Target Distance Controls Confidence Attackers Inhabited? Advance
Yan Zangata 22.38 2 2 Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10; HIP 30158; Yes 1
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-22 32.82 1 1 Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-4; No -0.7
Col 285 Sector WD-Y b15-7 32.82 1 1 Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-4; No 0.3
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-8 32.84 1 1 Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-2; No -0
Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-2 32.86 1 1 Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-0; No -0.4
L2 Puppis 33.07 5 5 Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7; etc No -0.1
Col 285 Sector NG-D b13-1 33.10 2 2 Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80; No -0.8
Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-3 33.11 1 1 Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0; No 0.3
Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-5 33.19 1 1 Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-3; No 0.3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-6 33.22 2 2 Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2; No -1
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-2 33.27 4 4 HIP 29217; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-2; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4; etc No -0.6
Col 285 Sector KL-D b13-7 33.46 2 2 Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1; HIP 32718; No -0

Still only four Alerts - and still no clue as to why there's only four Alerts: the heavy counter-attack on Thor has ruled out a lot of possibilities - but seven apparently fine targets were skipped over.

It can't be control exhaustion - none of those targeting controls were doing anything else. It can't be distance to Sol - TH-B b14-6 is further out than a lot of the skipped systems. Any ideas for why Hadad is behaving so differently to the other Maelstroms?

EDIT: to dig up another earlier theory, it's not that the activity around Hadad has somehow disconnected those controls - they can all trace a route back to the Maelstrom with 10LY hops through other controls.

May I suggest that you look at Lore. No Theocracy ever has been attacked by Thargoids. Sacra Oculus holds a great swathe of territory nearby.
Just a thought.

Ian Doncaster · May 18, 2023

Mrjupp said:
May I suggest that you look at Lore. No Theocracy ever has been attacked by Thargoids. Sacra Oculus holds a great swathe of territory nearby.

There's "nearby" and "on the schedule for this year", though.

The nearest Sacra Oculus system to Hadad is I believe HIP 27855 (presence) or HIP 27923 (control).
HIP 27855 is at 43.45 LY and at index 625 on Hadad's list - while Hadad currently controls nothing beyond index 252.
Even if no further human victories were to be won at Hadad, your systems would be safe - barring a change in Thargoid strategy or the arrival of more Maelstroms - for at least another 18 months.

I don't suppose you could expand a bit closer to test the theory sooner than that?

Ian Doncaster · May 18, 2023

Narwhal Nose report generated 18 May

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis
Read 126 control systems and 865 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 23716	18.4303217	7	7	Trianguli Sector BA-A d85; Trianguli Sector CA-A c22; Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 26274	23.64223082	3	3	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-81; Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1;	Yes	0.1
Vukurbeh	24.25356369	1	1	Matshiru;	Yes	0.8
Ge	27.68296732	4	4	Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14; Haushu; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; etc	Yes	0.2
Trianguli Sector BA-A d84	27.80710973	2	2	Trianguli Sector GG-Y c18; Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-0;	No	0.9
HIP 26926	28.17046672	3	3	Haushu; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-2;	Yes	0.3
HIP 22052	28.50558471	2	2	Trianguli Sector FG-Y d96; Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-5;	Yes	0.6

All fairly normal targeting, should be a solid prediction

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 166 control systems and 829 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Arietis Sector YU-P b5-0	25.20333327	1	1	Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2;	No	0.5
Garongxians	28.15201827	4	4	Jementi; Ceti Sector XJ-A c18; Arietis Sector NX-U c2-12; etc	Yes	0.8
Arietis Sector EW-N b6-2	28.33949458	1	1	Arietis Sector EW-N b6-1;	No	0.8
Arietis Sector UO-R b4-4	30.9707208	1	1	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-3;	No	0.6
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-3	32.081485	2	2	Arietis Sector NX-U c2-12; Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-2;	No	0.8
Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-0	38.33489863	3	3	Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-4; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-0; Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-2;	No	0.8
HIP 6001	39.68954227	1	1	Col 285 Sector DG-O c6-13;	No	-0.5
Arietis Sector QS-U b2-2	39.82575574	4	4	Arietis Sector TD-T b3-0; HIP 11309 (9.955 LY); Arietis Sector FG-Y d49; etc	No	-0.6

Lots of single-attacker lines, but it should still go okay

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 151 control systems and 837 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 20485	21.43649779	24	24	63 Tauri; 64 Tauri; 71 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
HR 1403	24.66371481	6	6	HR 1354 (9.991 LY); HIP 21261; HIP 21008; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20850	26.98612563	13	13	77 Theta-1 Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	0.9
57 h Tauri	27.0310513	11	11	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; HR 1358; etc	No	1
Hyades Sector EX-H a11-1	27.04167068	6	6	Lei Hsini; HIP 22350; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; etc	No	0.6
HIP 21474	27.12431595	11	11	86 Rho Tauri; HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
HIP 21091	27.39386479	1	1	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-2;	No	-0.7

The usual ultra-solid Indra predictions

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 72 control systems and 923 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector ZZ-Y b3	14.94135672	4	4	Chernobo; Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-2; HR 1107; etc	No	-0.2
Lahua	19.36315162	3	3	Tougeir; Muchihiks; Cephei Sector CV-Y b1;	Yes	0.9
HIP 6913	20.35869747	4	4	HR 1107; HIP 3006; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-1; etc	Yes	-0
Gliese 9035	20.49447334	2	2	HIP 10778; Daruwach;	Yes	-0.5
Minawara	23.42345412	2	2	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4 (9.954 LY);	Yes	0.6
Poqomathi	24.13574485	2	2	Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1; Cephei Sector CQ-Y b5;	Yes	0.6
HIP 38225	26.95621812	2	2	Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1; Ikpen;	Yes	-0.3

The earlier inner recapture of Cephei Sector ZZ-Y b3 is now off cooldown, so Poqomathi gets spared this time.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 204 control systems and 789 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Khwal	21.52984393	9	9	Mapon; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; etc	Yes	1
Sukurbago	24.1495382	1	1	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7;	Yes	0.4
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2	25.9473814	3	3	Kurumanit; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; 19 Puppis;	Yes	0.4
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-9	26.53520657	1	1	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-5 (10.001 LY);	No	-1
Col 285 Sector RX-H b11-3	30.48534804	1	1	Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-101;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4	30.70741462	5	5	Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; etc	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-1	30.83090855	2	2	HIP 37844; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-7;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-0	30.84914783	3	3	Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-7; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-23;	No	-0.2

Manual override of the prediction shown in red here, VY-Q c5-9 is of course likely to be out of range this week as well. Doesn't look like there are any other good test cases coming up to refine the model, so unless someone retakes TS-H b11-5 I'll probably need to do this override every week for a while.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 160 control systems and 832 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 18702	34.8336168	2	2	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3; Col 285 Sector WC-C b13-2;	Yes	-0.5
Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-4	36.69634955	1	1	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-19;	No	0
Wikini	39.29536839	1	1	Col 285 Sector WC-C b13-2;	Yes	-0.3
HIP 22031	41.33732471	2	2	Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-3; Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-5;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector IK-H b10-0	41.37515342	1	1	HIP 18271;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector GV-P c5-12	41.95352944	1	1	Col 285 Sector GV-P c5-13;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-1	42.12491886	2	2	Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3; HIP 16798;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-5	42.6833133	1	1	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-15;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-0	42.74375183	2	2	Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-3; Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-1;	No	-0.2

As usual for Thor, lots of single-attacker targets, but it should go okay anyway

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 171 control systems and 819 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Kuruma	25.52436413	2	2	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; Tagin;	Yes	0.2
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-1	27.01305385	4	4	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4; etc	No	0.9
Koko Oh	27.0657475	12	12	HIP 113535; Vistnero; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; etc	Yes	0.6
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-0	27.0974983	4	4	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-3; etc	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-0	27.18613502	6	6	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Gl 886.1 B; etc	No	-0.4
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-104	27.20904319	1	1	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6;	No	-0.7
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-3	27.2657817	3	3	Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4; Pegasi Sector SE-N a8-1;	No	0.9

All looks very solid

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Calculating Hadad
Read 144 control systems and 847 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Vogulu	20.72753867	2	2	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11	23.29894462	2	2	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10; HIP 30158;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-1	23.45295324	4	4	Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1 (9.970 LY); Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4; etc	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector OC-L c8-11	29.20584608	2	2	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-3; Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-4;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-22	32.8163837	1	1	Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-4;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector WD-Y b15-7	32.81858575	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-4;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-8	32.84425547	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-2;	No	-0
Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-2	32.85599795	1	1	Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-0;	No	-0.4

Another manual override here - the first four look solid, but the most consistent outcome with previous weeks would be for Hadad to look at MR-M c7-22, decide it doesn't like it, and forfeit an Alert. If one of the inner four was blocked, it could well go off the end of the reserves list onto Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-3 or Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-3 depending on the nature of the reason for systems being skipped.

Aleks Zuno · May 22, 2023

I may have helped equip another Commander, and some harvesting may have occurred in Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-4 based on its easier distance and A 1 being an easily-accessible Horizons landfall planet. If it turns out to be enough to complete it and protect Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-22, hopefully that will still be interesting to see what happens!

That said, the ease of clearing a system such as Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-4 is such that it is fine—and indeed preferable—that it consumes a future Alert which we can leave to proceed to Control again.