Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

Ian Doncaster · May 24, 2023

Prediction updates - lots of control recaptures across various Maelstroms this week.

Taranis, Indra and Raijin: no control recaptures; Leigong and Oya: control recaptures so far do not significantly affect this week's prediction, and neither will MCC 105 when that finishes. Previous predictions for those 5 continue as above for now.

Cocijo:

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Khwal	21.52984393	9	9	Mapon; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; etc	Yes	1
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2	25.9473814	3	3	Kurumanit; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; 19 Puppis;	Yes	0.4
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-9	26.53520657	1	1	Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-5 (10.001 LY);	No	-1
Col 285 Sector RX-H b11-3	30.48534804	1	1	Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-101;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4	30.70741462	5	5	Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; etc	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-1	30.83090855	2	2	HIP 37844; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-7;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-0	30.84914783	3	3	Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-7; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-23;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16	30.96509186	4	4	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; etc	No	-0.6

Sukurbago protected, VY-Q c5-9 still manually skipped

Thor:

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-4	36.69634955	1	1	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-19;	No	0
HIP 22031	41.33732471	2	2	Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-3; Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-5;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector IK-H b10-0	41.37515342	1	1	HIP 18271;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector GV-P c5-12	41.95352944	1	1	Col 285 Sector GV-P c5-13;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-1	42.12491886	2	2	Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3; HIP 16798;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-5	42.6833133	1	1	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-15;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-0	42.74375183	2	2	Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-3; Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-1;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector PW-D b12-2	42.76910438	1	1	Col 285 Sector PW-D b12-0;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15	42.88512317	1	1	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3;	No	-0.3

HIP 18702 and Wikini protected.

Hadad:

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Vogulu	20.72753867	2	2	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11	23.29894462	2	2	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10; HIP 30158;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-1	23.45295324	3	3	Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1 (9.970 LY); Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4;	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector OC-L c8-11	29.20584608	2	2	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-3; Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-4;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector WD-Y b15-7	32.81858575	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-4;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-8	32.84425547	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-2;	No	-0
Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-2	32.85599795	1	1	Col 285 Sector TX-Z b14-0;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector NG-D b13-1	33.09599261	2	2	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80;	No	-0.8

MR-M isn't on the list any more, but the next four are still ones that were previously skipped. IB-N c7-3 and NR-B b14-3 remain possibilities for a fifth somewhat further out. Confidence of prediction of 5th Alert (or only 4 Alerts) remains very low.

Ian Doncaster · May 25, 2023

Prediction check:
- Taranis, Leigong, Indra, Oya, Raijin, Thor: 100%
- Cocijo: 100% with manual distance override applied
- Hadad: 100% without manual override applied - despite being skipped past in a previous week, WD-Y b15-7 was alerted as "normal" as the fifth this time

As far as that suggests anything it's either "whatever was going at Hadad was a bug fixed in U15" or "MR-M c7-22 specifically is extremely weird". We'll just have to keep watching.

Ian Doncaster · May 25, 2023

Narwhal Nose report generated 25 May

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

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One minor note on Cocijo's prediction this week, but the others should all be solid. In a few week's we're likely to get uncertainty from the 3/4-week recovery coming back in, but none yet. The "use closest Control" rule seems to be working well so far.

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Calculating Taranis
Read 126 control systems and 867 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cao Tzu	21.51752556	4	4	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-87; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-86; Hyades Sector AV-O b6-4; etc	Yes	-0
HIP 26688	21.93603093	5	5	HIP 25670; HIP 25679; Nihal; etc	Yes	0.4
Hyades Sector AV-O b6-5	23.97536985	2	2	Hyades Sector AV-O b6-4; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-76;	Yes	-0.1
HIP 21991	25.78571931	2	2	Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-5 (9.904 LY); Hyades Sector GW-M b7-5 (9.998 LY);	Yes	0.4
HIP 26926	28.17046672	3	3	Haushu; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-2;	Yes	0.3
HIP 22052	28.50558471	1	1	Trianguli Sector FG-Y d96;	Yes	0.6
HIP 23128	28.80139767	1	1	Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-0;	No	0.8
Pentam	28.87285233	4	4	Hyades Sector NS-T c3-12; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; Vogulmangoi; etc	Yes	0.3

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Calculating Leigong
Read 163 control systems and 832 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 10616	28.35968061	1	1	Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1;	No	0.7
Wolf 121	28.91741338	4	4	HIP 10056; Hyades Sector LN-K b8-3; Hyades Sector LN-K b8-4; etc	Yes	0.5
Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-0	38.33489863	3	3	Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-4; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-0; Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-2;	No	0.8
HIP 6001	39.68954227	1	1	Col 285 Sector DG-O c6-13;	No	-0.5
Arietis Sector QS-U b2-2	39.82575574	4	4	Arietis Sector TD-T b3-0; HIP 11309 (9.955 LY); Arietis Sector FG-Y d49; etc	No	-0.6
HIP 10710	40.02729781	1	1	Arietis Sector FG-Y d68;	No	-0.2
Hyades Sector CB-O b6-0	40.52398499	2	2	Hyades Sector CB-O b6-1; HIP 11309;	No	-0.8
Arietis Sector SD-T b3-0	40.75488851	1	1	Arietis Sector FG-Y d49;	No	-0.6

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Calculating Indra
Read 151 control systems and 835 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 20492	24.04270696	20	20	71 Tauri; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc	Yes	1
HIP 20019	25.58293041	16	16	HIP 20577; HIP 20679; Hyadum II; etc	Yes	1
HIP 21474	27.12431595	11	11	86 Rho Tauri; HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
HIP 21091	27.39386479	1	1	Hyades Sector PI-S b4-2;	No	-0.7
Arietis Sector NS-R a5-0	27.41503209	4	4	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; Arietis Sector OS-R a5-0; etc	No	0.5
48 Tauri	27.45315613	12	12	HIP 20815; HR 1358; 58 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3	27.51237293	4	4	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0 (9.980 LY); Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4; Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17; etc	No	-1

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Calculating Oya
Read 69 control systems and 925 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Luggerates	21.96181434	6	6	Sambaho; HIP 4041; HIP 3006; etc	Yes	0.3
Aowicha	23.76857826	2	2	Daruwach; Cephei Sector ZE-A c8;	Yes	-0.3
Juipedun	24.11313666	1	1	Bumbo;	Yes	0.9
Poqomathi	24.13574485	4	4	Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1; HIP 8525; HIP 7338 (10.020 LY); etc	Yes	0.6
Khondo Po	24.3274175	1	1	Col 285 Sector HD-G b12-1;	Yes	-0.8
Cephei Sector CQ-Y b3	25.37078552	1	1	Cephei Sector CQ-Y b5;	No	0.1
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-5	25.69042714	1	1	HIP 21386;	No	0.8
Cephei Sector ZE-A c10	26.58633122	2	2	Cephei Sector ZE-A c8; HIP 4617;	No	-0.5

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 203 control systems and 788 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Asletae	28.53645215	3	3	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0; Picenile; Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-7;	Yes	0.9
Laumas	29.26925782	7	7	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	Yes	0.5
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-0	30.84914783	3	3	Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-7; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-23;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16	30.96509186	4	4	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; etc	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-8	30.99171386	5	5	Njana; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-3; etc	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-27	31.03724451	3	3	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25; Col 285 Sector XI-H b11-2;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-3	31.16015209	1	1	Canaharvas (9.960 LY);	No	0.9

The model has now been updated to stop it predicting Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-9 from Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-5 to avoid the need for manual overrides until we have more data on over-10LY targeting.

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Calculating Thor
Read 162 control systems and 830 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-1	31.54953323	3	3	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-4; Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-3; Col 285 Sector ML-E b12-5;	No	-0.1
HIP 21354	38.05408363	2	2	Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-2; Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-69	38.44472747	1	1	Col 285 Sector ML-E b12-5;	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-4	42.09750818	1	1	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-16;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73	42.66166403	2	2	HIP 20807; Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-5	42.6833133	2	2	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-15; Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-3;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-0	42.74375183	2	2	Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-3; Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-1;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector PW-D b12-2	42.76910438	1	1	Col 285 Sector PW-D b12-0;	No	0.2

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Calculating Raijin
Read 172 control systems and 820 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Holvandalla	21.47632235	10	10	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc	Yes	0.6
Isla	23.9002852	5	5	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2 (9.952 LY); HIP 116542; Wanmi; etc	Yes	-0.1
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-104	27.20904319	1	1	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6;	No	-0.7
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-3	27.2657817	4	4	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4; etc	No	0.9
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d101	27.26898708	1	1	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4;	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3	27.32947842	5	5	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; HIP 112595; etc	No	0.8
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1	27.39217141	6	6	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; Ixbaksha; etc	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1	27.41943098	11	11	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No	-0.3

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Calculating Hadad
Read 138 control systems and 852 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Fotlandjera	19.6874504	1	1	Omumba;	Yes	0.2
Ahol	20.72716175	1	1	Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2;	Yes	0.9
HIP 28913	25.42692117	1	1	HIP 30158;	No	0.9
Yukait	26.1453457	1	1	Col 285 Sector RX-Z b14-0;	Yes	0.9
HIP 30260	29.01407256	1	1	Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-5;	Yes	0.8
HIP 28183	30.34368563	4	4	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-1; HIP 29217; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-2; etc	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-0	30.36101144	1	1	Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-6	30.94371781	3	3	HIP 29217; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-2; Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-2;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-8	32.84425547	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-2;	No	-0

Jmanis · May 25, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
Narwhal Nose report generated 25 May

I meant to ask... completely OT, and I probably missed it somewhere, but why is it called the Narwhal Nose report?

yianniv · May 25, 2023

Jmanis said:
I meant to ask... completely OT, and I probably missed it somewhere, but why is it called the Narwhal Nose report?

You're being nosy on purpose, right?

Ian Doncaster · May 25, 2023

Jmanis said:
I meant to ask... completely OT, and I probably missed it somewhere, but why is it called the Narwhal Nose report?

"Eagle Eye" was already taken.

Kryxix · May 25, 2023

And sounds better then "Lakeduck Lung".

TobiasFuzz · May 27, 2023

I dont know if this is relevant or something already known:

I just flew through COL 285 Sector AP-F B12-2, an unpopulated system near the COCIJO Cluster, on a standard cargo transport flight with an unengineered python. As i visited this system for the first time i did honk it and scaned it with the FSS. I saw at least two AX combat zones and the "Thargoid" mark on some planets. I thought i accidently entered a alert/control/invasion system and panicked a little bit. I checked system map but the system was not labeled as alert/control/invasion at all. Just curious about this. Is this normal to have AX combat zones in such systems?

Ned Flandalorian · May 27, 2023

Seems to be a bug, thargoid controlled systems that get liberated aren't losing their CZs.

TobiasFuzz · May 27, 2023

Ned Flandalorian said:
Seems to be a bug, thargoid controlled systems that get liberated aren't losing their CZs.

Thanks for the answer! Yes, could be that it was liberated as it is near other systems of the COCIJO Cluster.

Planewalker · May 27, 2023

Some systems also have "normal" AX combat zones from waay back. Idk if the "Attacked by Thargoids" megaships are still in the game.

Ned Flandalorian · May 27, 2023

Those megaships just show as damaged megaships, not CZ POIs.

Ian Doncaster · May 31, 2023

Updated predictions after control recaptures:

Oya

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Luggerates	21.96181434	6	6	Sambaho; HIP 4041; HIP 3006; etc	Yes	0.3
Aowicha	23.76857826	2	2	Daruwach; Cephei Sector ZE-A c8;	Yes	-0.3
Juipedun	24.11313666	1	1	Bumbo;	Yes	0.9
Poqomathi	24.13574485	4	4	Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1; HIP 8525; HIP 7338 (10.020 LY); etc	Yes	0.6
Cephei Sector CQ-Y b3	25.37078552	1	1	Cephei Sector CQ-Y b5;	No	0.1
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-5	25.69042714	1	1	HIP 21386;	No	0.8
Cephei Sector ZE-A c10	26.58633122	1	1	Cephei Sector ZE-A c8;	No	-0.5
Gliese 9843	26.60676459	3	3	HIP 4041; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4;	No	0.4

Khondo Po out, onto CQ-Y b3 instead

Cocijo

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Asletae	28.53645215	3	3	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0; Picenile; Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-7;	Yes	0.9
Laumas	29.26925782	7	7	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	Yes	0.5
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-0	30.84914783	3	3	Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-7; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-23;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16	30.96509186	4	4	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; etc	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-8	30.99171386	5	5	Njana; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-3; etc	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-27	31.03724451	3	3	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25; Col 285 Sector XI-H b11-2;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-28	31.18037556	2	2	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25;	No	-0.8

Recapture at Canaharvas adjusts the reserves a bit, no change to main prediction

Thor

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-1	31.54953323	3	3	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-4; Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-3; Col 285 Sector ML-E b12-5;	No	-0.1
HIP 21354	38.05408363	2	2	Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-2; Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-69	38.44472747	1	1	Col 285 Sector ML-E b12-5;	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-4	42.09750818	1	1	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-16;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73	42.66166403	2	2	HIP 20807; Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-5	42.6833133	2	2	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-15; Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-3;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15	42.88512317	1	1	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-4	43.66460416	1	1	Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3;	No	0.2

Recaptures changing the reserves, no change to main prediction

Hadad

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Fotlandjera	19.6874504	1	1	Omumba;	Yes	0.2
HIP 28913	25.42692117	1	1	HIP 30158;	No	0.9
HIP 28183	30.34368563	2	2	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-1; HIP 29217;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-0	30.36101144	1	1	Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-6	30.94371781	1	1	HIP 29217;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector NG-D b13-1	33.09599261	2	2	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80;	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-3	33.11351511	1	1	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector KL-D b13-7	33.45656583	2	2	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1; HIP 32718;	No	-0
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-23	33.87276572	4	4	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24; Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-0; etc	No	-0.8

Three inhabited systems removed from the list, and various other changes after 16 control recaptures

deanom59 · May 31, 2023

For the last couple of weeks i've been loooking at the "Attackers" listed for Oya to see if any were indicated in more than one alert. Hindered somewhat by the etc's (more than 3 per Alert and not listed). This week Cephei Sector ZE-A c8 has an effect on 2 potential alerts. What I wondered is can your system work in reverse to show which control systems attack the most potential alerts? If so, it may be a way to identify the recapture targets that will have the most impact.

Ian Doncaster · May 31, 2023

deanom59 said:
For the last couple of weeks i've been loooking at the "Attackers" listed for Oya to see if any were indicated in more than one alert. Hindered somewhat by the etc's (more than 3 per Alert and not listed). This week Cephei Sector ZE-A c8 has an effect on 2 potential alerts. What I wondered is can your system work in reverse to show which control systems attack the most potential alerts? If so, it may be a way to identify the recapture targets that will have the most impact.

I could probably generate that sort of report relatively easily - though if you just want to know systems in range, EDSM's sphere API is useful: e.g. https://www.edsm.net/api-v1/sphere-systems?systemName=Cephei+Sector+ZE-A+c8&radius=10 ... or get yourself a ship with exactly 10LY jump range, and just use the ^ markers on the in-game map to visualise it.

It might be less useful to know in general - ZE-A c8 can reach 6 non-Control systems: but the only ones in practice it might be used to attack are Jaoi and Gliese 9035, because the consistent Alert clearance establishes a perimeter which keeps some of the further ones too far down the reserve list even though they're technically in range (like ZE-A c10), and Aowicha will always be attacked by Daruwach instead.

The main effect of clearing it would be to in the medium-term move the Alert perimeter inwards slightly, and it would probably switch Daruwach's attacks to try to retake it rather than attacking Aowicha, but I can't read that out completely in my head. That you won't tell from its connection list alone, though.

deanom59 · Jun 1, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
I could probably generate that sort of report relatively easily - though if you just want to know systems in range, EDSM's sphere API is useful: e.g. https://www.edsm.net/api-v1/sphere-systems?systemName=Cephei+Sector+ZE-A+c8&radius=10 .

Cool. Haven't come across the tool before, so I'll check it out.
I'm also curious about which of the populated systems under threat of alert can only be attacked by one control and could therefore be taken out of the cycle completely with one recapture. Seems like another way to identify targets that have a decent impact.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 1, 2023

deanom59 said:
I'm also curious about which of the populated systems under threat of alert can only be attacked by one control and could therefore be taken out of the cycle completely with one recapture.

In the long term, if you run an Oya-like strategy of consistently clearing every Alert every cycle, this is true of all of your populated systems and all their Control attackers.

Each Alert is targeted by a Control closer to the Maelstrom than it is, so clearing that Control gives (when it exits cooldown 4 weeks later) a closer target which will be picked in preference to one of your populated Alerts. Clear a perimeter of 15 uninhabited systems closer to the Maelstrom than your current inhabited systems [1] and once cooldown ends all of your inhabited systems are then safe for as long as you maintain that perimeter.

For a Hadad/Thor/Leigong-like strategy where the Thargoids are allowed to take uninhabited systems, especially ones pointed away from the bubble, in exchange for more recaptures in strategic directions it gets more complicated, and someone like Aleks or the ISAR team at Leigong can probably give better advice on how to plan that.

[1] There might be some slight subtleties here in that you need to make sure that you aren't relying on the same inner control too much when picking the 15, but that's probably easier to figure out as you go along than try to read ahead.

Aleks Zuno · Jun 1, 2023

Interesting; looks like M. Thor is now the one to start misbehaving? M. Hadad is as predicted, and M. Thor is correct up to where it stops at Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73.

deanom59 said:
What I wondered is can your system work in reverse to show which control systems attack the most potential alerts? If so, it may be a way to identify the recapture targets that will have the most impact.

deanom59 said:
I'm also curious about which of the populated systems under threat of alert can only be attacked by one control and could therefore be taken out of the cycle completely with one recapture. Seems like another way to identify targets that have a decent impact.

We have been discussing some similar ideas at INIV, insofar as it is all very close to the task performed by INTRA, our bounty-hunting utility for finding exclusive mission locations which meet various personal preferences. It was intended originally only to watch faction activity, though it has since been extended to warn about Thargoid systems and avoid sending bounty-hunters that way, then extended again as a reporting aid.

In our case we were just talking about listing future attackers of Recovery systems, but those are also great ideas! The single-attacker idea is asking mostly for extended report listings here, given that those cases are not much problem while inner attackers exist to consume the five-Alert allowance, although seeing all the attackers for a system (regardless of its state) could be great for making a start at M. Indra. Where there are so many attackers each cycle that no single attack can be prevented easily, I can see that one may want to know which of those attackers are best to remove to start approaching a manageable list!

If INTRA is to do anything like that then @CMDR Vulkarius would be the one to comment or to promise anything. If I recall, it would need a separate system list for this because it only knows or cares about populated systems as far as missions are concerned!

Ian Doncaster said:
For a Hadad/Thor/Leigong-like strategy where the Thargoids are allowed to take uninhabited systems, especially ones pointed away from the bubble, in exchange for more recaptures in strategic directions it gets more complicated, and someone like Aleks or the ISAR team at Leigong can probably give better advice on how to plan that.

I would say it is not so much a spatial plan beyond an Imperial group focusing mainly on Imperial space, but more a cost reduction. Given that we clear unpopulated Control systems with a fifth of the time it takes to clear a previously-inhabited Control system, it is a case of changing those Alerts to end up spending less total time per system!

To an extent that idea is also driven by supposing that it were only us defending M. Hadad at all; that is to say, act as if all attacked populated systems will reach Control. In reality there are many lovely Commanders coming to defend Alerts and Invasions at systems with those inner attackers which would represent a difficult march forward into Maelstrom vicinity, but we are doing what we can to minimise that burden!

Ian Doncaster · Jun 1, 2023

Aleks Zuno said:
although seeing all the attackers for a system (regardless of its state) could be great for making a start at M. Indra. Where there are so many attackers each cycle that no single attack can be prevented easily, I can see that one may want to know which of those attackers are best to remove to start approaching a manageable list!

For Indra's dense connectivity I think that sort of strategy is probably largely impractical. In that case I think an Oya-like strategy where rather than trying to break connectivity you instead do selective inner recaptures to ensure that in the longer term the cycle is mainly pointed at a more defensible "shell" might work better.

(Of course, leaving Indra as a reliable "5 invasions a week" site so that the Invasion teams have something to do when the Thargoids are contained elsewhere might also be good global strategy - I'm just a researcher here...)

Ian Doncaster · Jun 1, 2023

Aleks Zuno said:
Interesting; looks like M. Thor is now the one to start misbehaving? M. Hadad is as predicted, and M. Thor is correct up to where it stops at Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73.

Yes - 100% accuracy on target ordering is good ... but 7 in 8 accuracy again on how many targets would actually be used.

And still no hints as to why... other than to rule out a lot of theories:
- Thor has no control systems further out than d2-73 right now, but has had in the past.
- HIP 20807 which would have been the normal attacker for d2-73 was used on 18 May to Alert FU-H b10-3, so that does rule out "invalid source for some reason"; it would have been offline last week but should be back to operational this week, and even if it was offline for two weeks, FU-H b10-3 could have been used instead.
- Thor was not the heaviest hit Maelstrom by a fair way, whether counting total victories or just control reclamations
- this week was the highest for control reclamations total by a long way, but last week had 40 Alerts and was higher than the three previous weeks with 39

Hadad's "low Alert" state lasted three weeks, so maybe there's some experimentation to do there? I'll get the predictions for this week up soon.