Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

Spacerschoice-00 · Jun 1, 2023

has anyone tested what impact taking the ~~unknown~~ unclasified artifact from the Alert systems, both populated and unpopulated generate (ax ship signature threat 1) signal sources.
* the T9 heavy has it. usually escorted by Anacondas.

or what significance it is, that it's there.

edit: used wrong name

Ian Doncaster · Jun 1, 2023

Narwhal Nose report generated 1 June

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

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Calculating Taranis
Read 125 control systems and 864 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
63 Eridani	19.562	1	1	Hyades Sector PN-T c3-9;	Yes	-0.3
Senocidi	20.264	3	3	Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8; HIP 24076; Hyades Sector LH-V c2-6;	Yes	-0.4
Awara	21.997	3	3	Hyades Sector EB-N b7-0; HIP 23593; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-86;	Yes	0.4
HR 1812	26.623	1	1	Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1;	Yes	0.8
Paeni	26.728	4	4	29 e Orionis; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-81; Trianguli Sector ZJ-A b1; etc	Yes	0.3
Lovaroju	26.925	4	4	Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3 (10.021 LY); Hyades Sector PN-T c3-7; Hyades Sector QN-T c3-11; etc	Yes	-1
Namayu	27.095	2	2	Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b5; Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b4;	Yes	0.5
HIP 22052	28.506	1	1	Trianguli Sector FG-Y d96;	Yes	0.6

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Calculating Leigong
Read 163 control systems and 832 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-3	17.214	2	2	Arietis Sector FG-Y d66; Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2;	No	0.4
Pathamon	22.064	6	6	HIP 7277; Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56; Arietis Sector MX-U c2-17; etc	Yes	0.5
Baudani	24.964	1	1	Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2;	Yes	0.5
Arietis Sector JM-W d1-57	28.843	1	1	Arietis Sector EW-N b6-1;	No	0.9
HIP 11134	28.928	2	2	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-3; HIP 11137;	No	0.2
Arietis Sector YJ-R b4-4	32.621	1	1	Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-2;	No	0.6
Arietis Sector WO-R b4-4	35.680	1	1	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-4 (9.937 LY);	No	0.6
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-4	37.587	2	2	Arietis Sector JM-W d1-83; HIP 6380;	No	0.5

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Calculating Indra
Read 153 control systems and 836 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 20527	22.540	20	20	Hyadum I; HIP 20916; HIP 20397; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20491	23.341	6	6	HIP 19934 (10.022 LY); HIP 20480; HIP 20712; etc	Yes	0.4
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.286	5	5	HIP 20480 (9.966 LY); HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc	No	0.6
48 Tauri	27.453	14	14	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; HR 1358; etc	Yes	1
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3	27.512	4	4	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0 (9.980 LY); Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4; Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17; etc	No	-1
HIP 21317	27.515	13	13	77 Theta-1 Tauri; HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; etc	No	1
Hyades Sector VK-L a9-0	27.650	6	6	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-4; Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0; HIP 21788; etc	No	-0.3

HIP 19934 probably won't be used to attack HIP 20491 but that shouldn't change the prediction given how many alternatives everything has

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Calculating Oya
Read 65 control systems and 927 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2	22.149	2	2	HIP 8525; HIP 7338 (9.988 LY);	No	0.5
Muncheim	23.557	3	3	HIP 7338; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0;	Yes	0.7
HIP 2422	24.009	4	4	HIP 4041; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0; etc	Yes	0.5
Jaoi	25.464	1	1	Cephei Sector ZE-A c8;	Yes	-0.4
Gliese 3050	25.579	1	1	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0;	No	0.6
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-5	25.690	1	1	HIP 21386;	No	0.8
Gliese 9843	26.607	2	2	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4;	No	0.4
HIP 38225	26.956	2	2	Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1; Ikpen;	Yes	-0.3

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Calculating Cocijo
Read 204 control systems and 790 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Hez Ur	22.001	4	4*	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; etc	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1	26.329	3	3	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; HR 3048;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-27	31.037	3	3	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25; Col 285 Sector XI-H b11-2;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-28	31.180	3	3	Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25;	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-5	31.260	2	2	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	3	3	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5	31.444	3	3	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6;	No	-0.5

Prediction at Hez Ur is conditional on it not having a 4-week recovery.

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Calculating Thor
Read 161 control systems and 832 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Theemim	30.148	4	4	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3; Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3; etc	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15	35.033	2	2	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14; Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3	35.161	1	1	Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-14	35.749	3	3	Almar; Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89; Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-3 (9.901 LY);	No	0.3
HIP 21548	37.925	3	3	Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1; Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-5; HIP 22031;	No	0.7
Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-4	38.306	1	1	Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-3;	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-5	38.822	1	1	HIP 22031;	No	0.7
Col 285 Sector ML-E b12-4	42.142	1	1	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-19;	No	0.4

At the moment, Thor isn't predicted to retry for d2-73 this week anyway. It would be 9th on the target list, which sets up two possible experiments.

The top 7 targets are all systems which have previously been under Control (ML-E b12-4 would be new) so for a Thor-light week we might get some interesting data if at most two of the top seven were prevented - if it still only did 4 Alerts, that would rule out the destination systems as directly causing it. Conversely, for a Thor-heavy week, pushing it to the Hadad position sooner might also give interesting data - if at least five of the systems above were prevented, and HIP 20807 left operational, to place d2-73 in 4th or better priority, we might get better data on what it does with additional alerts after a blocker. Either way we should learn something.

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Calculating Raijin
Read 172 control systems and 819 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Nu Guang	19.330	1	1	Snoqui;	Yes	0.9
Bormuninus	24.356	4	4	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0; etc	Yes	-0.3
HIP 117177	24.758	1	1	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6;	Yes	-0.1
Ngolite	26.894	8	8	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; HIP 112595; etc	Yes	0.8
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-3	26.974	10	10	Chakma; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No	0.2
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3	27.329	5	5	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; HIP 112595; etc	No	0.8
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1	27.392	6	6	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; Ixbaksha; etc	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1	27.419	11	11	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No	-0.3

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Calculating Hadad
Read 121 control systems and 871 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-5	22.009	1	1	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3	22.024	2	2	Montioch; HR 2204 (9.988 LY);	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-1	23.916	1	1	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10 (9.960 LY);	No	0.9
H Puppis	25.935	2	2	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector WD-Y b15-7;	Yes	0.2
Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-8	27.909	1	1	Col 285 Sector OC-L c8-11;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22	28.147	4	4	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 (9.908 LY); Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0; etc	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-21	31.981	1	1	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector NG-D b13-1	33.096	2	2	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80;	No	-0.8

Aleks Zuno · Jun 1, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
For Indra's dense connectivity I think that sort of strategy is probably largely impractical. In that case I think an Oya-like strategy where rather than trying to break connectivity you instead do selective inner recaptures to ensure that in the longer term the cycle is mainly pointed at a more defensible "shell" might work better.

M. Hadad is sort of the future result of already having done that; clearing the cheaper unpopulated systems to create a slightly porous volume which the Thargoid council keeps trying to refill, meanwhile everything further out lies dormant and can be swept away at leisure. Actually I think those two ideas are much the same:

Clearing an arbitrary system closer to M. Indra will make that system take the place of a populated system in the cycle after next.
Clearing an attacker at M. Hadad can turn its attention to some unpopulated system next cycle, and also contribute to the porous perimeter in the cycle after next.

I suppose with all those Commanders who have kept all populated systems safe from reaching Thargoid control for eight weeks now, I think I would suggest to @deanom59 that there is not much need to worry about maximising impact, and instead just start clearing Control systems! Their difficulty reaches a minimum at 30 Ly from a Maelstrom, at least in effect, which is around 320–325 harvest-units.

Spacerschoice-00 said:
has anyone tested what impact taking the unknown artifact from the Alert systems, both populated and unpopulated generate (ax ship signature threat 1) signal sources.
* the T9 heavy has it. usually escorted by Anacondas.

I could perhaps take a peek when next I happen to be close to an Alert system. While I do not actually own any Manifest scanners, our harvest vessels at least have the universal multi-limpet and therefore could use Hatch-breakers on those Type-9 vessels, if that is what you mean? I do not know what to do with said artifact, though.

Ian Doncaster said:
Each Alert is targeted by a Control closer to the Maelstrom than it is

Looking at the lists for this week, is that idea being applied? The M. Hadad list has H Puppis (25.93) targeted by Col 285 Sectors SX-Z b14-1 (23.45) and WD-Y b15-7 (32.82), of which the latter is farther out. I would like to clear them both if you think the latter may be able to attack H Puppis, and perhaps set up a test elsewhere if there is any question regarding attacking backwards.

Ian Doncaster said:
Conversely, for a Thor-heavy week, pushing it to the Hadad position sooner might also give interesting data - if at least five of the systems above were prevented, and HIP 20807 left operational, to place d2-73 in 4th or better priority, we might get better data on what it does with additional alerts after a blocker.

Consider most-if-not-all of that M. Thor table not to be under Thargoid control much longer.

deanom59 · Jun 1, 2023

Aleks Zuno said:
I suppose with all those Commanders who have kept all populated systems safe from reaching Thargoid control for eight weeks now, I think I would suggest to @deanom59 that there is not much need to worry about maximising impact, and instead just start clearing Control systems! Their difficulty reaches a minimum at 30 Ly from a Maelstrom, at least in effect, which is around 320–325 harvest-units.

As one of those commanders actively working in Oya I'll bear that in mind.

Spacerschoice-00 · Jun 1, 2023

Aleks Zuno said:
I could perhaps take a peek when next I happen to be close to an Alert system. While I do not actually own any Manifest scanners, our harvest vessels at least have the universal multi-limpet and therefore could use Hatch-breakers on those Type-9 vessels, if that is what you mean? I do not know what to do with said artifact, though.

I've got 2 now. one from previous week, I don't know what to do with it either will try taking both to rescue ship see if black market there will take it. don't need a manifest scanner unless wanting to see what else it carries.
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16 got 1 from here, but also couple orthrus and scout though.

Edit: black market will buy them at rescue ships. no idea if that'll have any effect.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 1, 2023

Aleks Zuno said:
Actually I think those two ideas are much the same:

The underlying principle of getting the Thargoids to attack easier systems to defend in following weeks certainly is. The difference I think is in the resulting medium-term shape - an Oya-style defence leads to a roughly spherical perimeter, while a Hadad-style defence - at least for a Maelstrom on the edge of the bubble - leads to an egg-shaped one with the long end pointed away from the bubble.

Aleks Zuno said:
Looking at the lists for this week, is that idea being applied? The M. Hadad list has H Puppis (25.93) targeted by Col 285 Sectors SX-Z b14-1 (23.45) and WD-Y b15-7 (32.82), of which the latter is farther out. I would like to clear them both if you think the latter may be able to attack H Puppis, and perhaps set up a test elsewhere if there is any question regarding attacking backwards.

Ah - I was speaking of the practical situation at Oya in terms of where its Alerts are coming from, not the full possible capabilities of Controls.

I'm fairly sure there have been cases of Controls attacking backwards but I'd need to verify them more carefully to be sure. (Still, nothing has gone wrong yet as a result of assuming that they can)

Aleks Zuno said:
Consider most-if-not-all of that M. Thor table not to be under Thargoid control much longer.

Great - give me a prod once enough of it's cleared that you'd be going beyond d2-73 and I'll regenerate the list.

Aleks Zuno · Jun 4, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
Great - give me a prod once enough of it's cleared that you'd be going beyond d2-73 and I'll regenerate the list.

By order of Fleet Admiral Patreus, @Ian Doncaster is hereby prodded, hopefully with time to spare just in case any other populated systems now need knocking out of focus ahead of Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73 turning out to have no problems.

Additional:

Ian Doncaster said:
I'm fairly sure there have been cases of Controls attacking backwards but I'd need to verify them more carefully to be sure. (Still, nothing has gone wrong yet as a result of assuming that they can)

Actually I found one such case myself; at M. Leigong this cycle, Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1 (34.63 Ly) back-attacked HIP 10616 (28.36 Ly).

Ian Doncaster · Jun 4, 2023

Nicely done.

Revised Thor prediction.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73	42.662	2	2	HIP 20807; Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-0	42.744	1	1	Col 285 Sector GV-P c5-12;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector DF-Q c5-4	42.752	1	1	Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-4 (9.935 LY);	No	-0
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15	42.885	1	1	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector IK-H b10-1	43.040	2	2	Col 285 Sector IK-H b10-0; HIP 18271;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-4	43.665	1	1	Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-2	43.801	2	2	HIP 16798; Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-1;	No	-0.4
Gliese 2032	44.144	1	1	Hyades Sector NH-M b7-3;	No	0.6
HIP 22159	44.432	2	2	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3; Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4;	No	0.2
28 Tau-7 Eridani	44.736	1	1	HIP 18271;	No	-0.3
Synuefe QO-Q c21-5	44.854	1	1	Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-0;	No	-0.7
HIP 22538	44.902	2	2	Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-3; Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4;	No	0.5
Synuefe QO-Q c21-1	45.230	1	1	Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-2;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector OL-F b11-2	45.301	1	1	Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-1;	No	-0.6
HIP 22632	45.364	1	1	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4;	No	0.4
Hyades Sector SI-T c3-4	46.109	2	2	Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5; Hyades Sector NM-M b7-1;	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector DZ-H b10-1	46.446	1	1	Hyades Sector NM-M b7-1;	No	0.2

We're now starting with OC-V d2-73, so no idea what's going to happen next. I've generated an extended-length targeting list just in case it skips more than just OC-V: this is Thor's full list of possible targets.

Updated Hadad table as well (assumes WD-Y b15-7 completed)

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-5	22.009	1	1	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3	22.024	2	2	Montioch; HR 2204 (9.988 LY);	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-1	23.916	1	1	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10 (9.960 LY);	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-8	27.909	1	1	Col 285 Sector OC-L c8-11;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22	28.147	4	4	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 (9.908 LY); Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0; etc	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-21	31.981	1	1	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector NG-D b13-1	33.096	2	2	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80;	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-3	33.114	1	1	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-5	33.192	1	1	Col 285 Sector YY-X b15-3;	No	0.3

As an aside, after seeing that Thor's list of targets was so short, I've modified the predictor to also count how many total targets a Maelstrom has (i.e. how many you'd need to block to brute-force run it out of Alert opportunities / how many it could hit at once with infinite budget) and that'll be on next week's reports. For this week:

Taranis: 47
Leigong: 23
Indra: 77
Oya: 23
Cocijo: 71
Thor: 17 (was 25 at start of week)
Raijin: 99
Hadad: 23 (was 24 at start of week)

[VR] Bulbulunufus · Jun 6, 2023

Do we have some definitive numbers on how many samples it takes to clear an unpopulated control as a function of distance from maelstrom?

Ian Doncaster · Jun 6, 2023

[VR] Bulbulunufus said:
Do we have some definitive numbers on how many samples it takes to clear an unpopulated control as a function of distance from maelstrom?

Aleks' team have some good data on that

Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

Either of HIP 8825 or HIP 24329 should be within reach at least, noting that the former has a further distance than with Fotlandjera and that the curve should be lower since then. If that line earlier extrapolates well, a populated system at 19 Ly would cost just shy of 5500, which makes for a...

forums.frontier.co.uk

Aleks Zuno · Jun 6, 2023

Unfortunately for that purpose, we have been spending more time using said data to clear systems quickly rather than collecting more data closer to a Maelstrom. Those five-light-year linear sections at and beyond 20 Ly are very reliable; we are allowing a margin of only a few units, and very recently we are now also confident enough to reject excess units so that delivery is faster.

For example, Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89 is at 116% because one full harvest round happened to be one-sixth more than needed, while Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80 was managed as above and is less than 2% over despite having much the same requirement. The Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6, 7 and 8 systems fall onto a gradient, and each were completed also with less than 2% over. None yet have fallen short of the completion threshold!

If you want to help with measurements, deliver some samples for a system within 20 Ly and record the amount and the change in high-precision journal progress. We record the prior progress, units delivered and posterior progress, and calculate from that a minimum and maximum projection. Those extrema are now mostly a relic from knowing only the 2% points available at the Galaxy map, where the range derived from a progress amount such as 10% is due to interpreting it as the 10–12% interval, but it understands the difference with journal progress and that the quanta are 0.000001 for those.

May I trouble @Ian Doncaster for another M. Hadad update? We are clearing pockets of systems more so than targeting the Alert order, so I do not imagine it will be brought down below five remaining, but it would be quite nice to see how it is doing!

Ian Doncaster · Jun 6, 2023

Oya update

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2	22.149	2	2	HIP 8525; HIP 7338 (9.988 LY);	No	0.5
Muncheim	23.557	3	3	HIP 7338; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0;	Yes	0.7
HIP 2422	24.009	4	4	HIP 4041; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0; etc	Yes	0.5
Gliese 3050	25.579	1	1	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0;	No	0.6
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-5	25.690	1	1	HIP 21386;	No	0.8
Gliese 9843	26.607	2	2	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4;	No	0.4
HIP 38225	26.956	2	2	Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1; Ikpen;	Yes	-0.3
Orong	27.128	2	2	HR 1107 (9.914 LY); Ikpen;	Yes	-0.2

14 additional targets not listed, 22 total
Jaoi prevented

Hadad update (up to recaptures 9am today)

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-5	22.009	1	1	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3	22.024	2	2	Montioch; HR 2204 (9.988 LY);	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-1	23.916	1	1	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10 (9.960 LY);	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22	28.147	4	4	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2 (9.908 LY); Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0; etc	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-21	31.981	1	1	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector IB-N c7-3	33.114	1	1	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector KL-D b13-7	33.457	2	2	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1; HIP 32718;	No	-0
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-23	33.873	2	2	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24; Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-0;	No	-0.8

10 additional targets not listed, 18 total

[VR] Bulbulunufus · Jun 6, 2023

Aleks Zuno said:
Unfortunately for that purpose, we have been spending more time using said data to clear systems quickly rather than collecting more data closer to a Maelstrom. Those five-light-year linear sections at and beyond 20 Ly are very reliable; we are allowing a margin of only a few units, and very recently we are now also confident enough to reject excess units so that delivery is faster.

For example, Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89 is at 116% because one full harvest round happened to be one-sixth more than needed, while Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80 was managed as above and is less than 2% over despite having much the same requirement. The Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6, 7 and 8 systems fall onto a gradient, and each were completed also with less than 2% over. None yet have fallen short of the completion threshold!

If you want to help with measurements, deliver some samples for a system within 20 Ly and record the amount and the change in high-precision journal progress. We record the prior progress, units delivered and posterior progress, and calculate from that a minimum and maximum projection. Those extrema are now mostly a relic from knowing only the 2% points available at the Galaxy map, where the range derived from a progress amount such as 10% is due to interpreting it as the 10–12% interval, but it understands the difference with journal progress and that the quanta are 0.000001 for those.

May I trouble @Ian Doncaster for another M. Hadad update? We are clearing pockets of systems more so than targeting the Alert order, so I do not imagine it will be brought down below five remaining, but it would be quite nice to see how it is doing!

Certainly the 2% quantisation was a pain!

I'm looking at "sacrificial" unpop systems to prevent populated alerts which are all at over 21ly so thankfully I'm in the high precision (and lower effort

) region, but sadly not where you need measurements.

Edit - excellent data btw, thanks

.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 8, 2023

Accuracy this week: 80%, protocol 7C.1502: change in Thargoid strategy probable

Taranis: 100%
Leigong: 100%
Indra: 80% - Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3 was skipped despite having four valid controls, HIP 21317 used instead
Oya: 60% - first three correct, then several uninhabited systems skipped to target Orong and Benanekpeno
Cocijo: 100% (Hez Ur has 4 week recovery, targets 2-6 used on this basis as expected)
Thor: 20% - targets hit were 3rd, 6th, 13th on "full" target list, then Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-17 (instead of HIP 22159) and Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-75 (instead of Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73) also hit at a greater distance. Back up to the full five Alerts.
Raijin: 100%
Hadad: 100% on priority, but only four Alerts placed again. Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-21 not hit despite it having been Alerted perfectly normally on 20 April

There does not seem to be any simple explanation for any of this:
- Indra is not meaningfully contained; the skip substituted an uninhabited for another uninhabited (at +1 rather than -1 direction and with a completely different Control used)
- Oya has been contained for quite a while: you could explain this by a new preference to attack inhabited slightly further out rather than uninhabited, and this wouldn't be ruled out by the other Maelstroms
- Thor we expected to go a bit haywire given what happened in Hadad when it couldn't place the system it was scared of 5th, and I should have considered the possibility that an Alert might target a system further out from the same Control when building the list. As with Hadad's mass-skip week, no particular pattern on direction
- Hadad has cut to 4 again after taking heavy recaptures, but the one its skipped is one it definitely has no objection to being in, which rules out many of our remaining theories there. And Thor took almost as many recaptures and remained at 5 Alerts.

Alec Turner · Jun 8, 2023

Source: https://youtu.be/uqs1YXfdtGE
(listener's to this week's Lave Radio featuring our esteeemed Ian Doncaster will get this reference)

That said, the reference is incorrect - Ian predicted strangeness and strangeness we got.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 8, 2023

Alec Turner said:
That said, the reference is incorrect - Ian predicted strangeness and strangeness we got.

Well, I predicted strangeness at Thor, and Hadad isn't completely out of line. Oya is definitely a "no hurricane moment" if you live in Orong or Benanekpeno...

Ned Flandalorian · Jun 8, 2023

Just curious: has anyone (at any point) checked the predicted systems that aren't picked to make sure they're properly "free"? For example there's quite a few liberated (previously thargoid controlled) systems that still have unexplained AX CZs in them despite being shown as completely human controlled. Something is obviously not right within the war simulation and it's been going on for weeks, just like the old invisible alerts around Leigong.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 8, 2023

Ned Flandalorian said:
Just curious: has anyone (at any point) checked the predicted systems that aren't picked to make sure they're properly "free"? For example there's quite a few liberated (previously thargoid controlled) systems that still have unexplained AX CZs in them despite being shown as completely human controlled. Something is obviously not right within the war simulation and it's been going on for weeks, just like the old invisible alerts around Leigong.

Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-21 is the first time in Hadad that a predicted system has been missed that has previously been occupied, and that's at -0.7 direction so shouldn't have had AXCZs to start with. Might be worth verifying in person if someone is nearby.

Gliese 3050 in Oya was skipped this week having previously been a Control and has positive direction - but it's been Alerted normally twice in-between. HIP 38225 on the other hand has never been a Control system, but was previously Alerted twice (the earlier being stopped as a week 1 Invasion)

Could potentially apply to Cephei Sector FB-X b1-5 or Gliese 9035 at Oya as those haven't been realerted after leaving Control.

CMDR Vulkarius · Jun 8, 2023

Can't explain the cause, but if the outcome looks random then maybe it simply is, if a simple program does it like this -
1. Select target list using a cheap distance check e.g. coordinate delta sum < 17
2. Iterate repeatedly and pick/remove the closest target each time (like a bubble sort, normally bad but OK here because we only need 5)
3. Extra validation on chosen target e.g. proper distance, but something breaks here (negative sqrt? should use squared distance.....)
4. Handle exception by just attacking the first 5 in the unsorted list, or random 5 (there-i-fixed-it.jpg)

I tried sorting the Thor list a few different ways (coords, name, SystemAddress, Sol distance) but nothing worked.
Best guess is something like that where it does it one by one and the combined sort + validate both fail together.
Remaining systems are then stuck in any unpredictable hash table order or whatever it uses, or just picked at random, and lacking some validation.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 8, 2023

Narwhal Nose report generated 8 June

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

-------------------------------------------

As I've no idea what change to make to the model, I've not changed it other than to significantly extend the number of reserves generated. Even that may miss something if an earlier Control decides to target further out. I've tried to highlight "precedented" issues in the per-Maelstrom commentary.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis
Read 123 control systems and 869 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Imeut	19.132	5	5*	HIP 25670; Hyades Sector FB-N b7-3; HIP 25679; etc	Yes	0.8
Ebisu	21.049	5	5*	Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-87 (10.024 LY); Hyades Sector GW-W d1-86; etc	Yes	0.1
Vukurbeh	24.254	1	1	Matshiru;	Yes	0.8
Lovaroju	26.925	4	4	Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3 (10.021 LY); Hyades Sector PN-T c3-7; Hyades Sector QN-T c3-11; etc	Yes	-1
Namayu	27.095	2	2	Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b5; Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b4;	Yes	0.5
HIP 22052	28.506	2	2	Trianguli Sector FG-Y d96; Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-5;	Yes	0.6
Pentam	28.873	6	6	Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14; Haushu; Hyades Sector NS-T c3-12; etc	Yes	0.3
Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-1	28.922	2	2	Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5; Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6;	No	0.6
Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-3	28.969	2	2	Trianguli Sector ZJ-A b1; Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-0;	Yes	0.2
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-5	29.058	2	2	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-3; Hyades Sector EG-N b7-4;	No	0.3
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-4	29.072	3	3	Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-4;	No	-0.9
Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-4	29.264	3	3	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-82; Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-3; HIP 25388;	No	-0.5
Hyades Sector VT-Q b5-2	29.268	2	2	Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-3; HIP 25388;	No	-0.4
Nareg	29.541	1	1	HIP 25840;	Yes	0.8
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-6	29.818	2	2	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-2 (10.015 LY); Vogulmangoi;	No	0.2

30 additional targets not listed, 45 total
Imeut and Ebisu could both go 4-week recovery. Nevertheless with the range of inhabited systems near the top of the list a move past Pentam would be unexpected even in the current situation.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 164 control systems and 830 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Garongxians	28.152	3	3	Jementi; Ceti Sector XJ-A c18; Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-2;	Yes	0.8
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-3	32.081	2	2	Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-2; Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1;	No	0.8
Arietis Sector YJ-R b4-4	32.621	1	1	Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1;	No	0.6
Arietis Sector WO-R b4-4	35.680	1	1	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-4 (9.937 LY);	No	0.6
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-4	37.587	2	2	Arietis Sector JM-W d1-83; HIP 6380;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-3	38.317	2	2	HIP 6380; HIP 6869;	No	0.5
HIP 10710	40.027	1	1	Arietis Sector FG-Y d68;	No	-0.2
Hyades Sector CB-O b6-0	40.524	2	2	Hyades Sector CB-O b6-1; HIP 11309;	No	-0.8
Arietis Sector SD-T b3-0	40.755	1	1	Arietis Sector FG-Y d49;	No	-0.6
Hyades Sector KX-U d2-49	40.890	1	1	HIP 5685;	No	0.3
Matsucha	41.285	3	3	Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-4; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-0; Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-2;	Yes	0.9
HIP 5207	41.309	1	1	Col 285 Sector DG-O c6-16;	No	0
HIP 5662	41.411	1	1	HIP 6001;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector GM-C b13-2	41.624	1	1	Hyades Sector MT-I b9-1;	No	-0.1
Bamarakw	42.099	1	1	Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-2;	Yes	0.9
Arietis Sector GG-Y d68	42.349	1	1	HIP 11309;	No	-0.6
Arietis Sector QS-U b2-3	44.039	2	2	Arietis Sector QS-U b2-2; Arietis Sector EL-Y c8;	No	-0.6

4 additional targets not listed, 21 total
Nothing obviously risky on the prediction this week, though there may be opportunities to retarget onto inhabited systems from an earlier Control. We'll need to watch carefully.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 155 control systems and 837 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 20485	21.436	23	23	63 Tauri; 64 Tauri; 71 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
HIP 20890	21.889	16	16*	64 Tauri (10.013 LY); HIP 20577; HR 1354; etc	Yes	0.9
Kagutsuchi	22.496	2	2*	Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3; Arietis Sector NH-V b2-0;	Yes	-0.4
HIP 20899	23.086	22	22*	71 Tauri; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc	Yes	1
HR 1403	24.664	9	9	HR 1354 (9.991 LY); HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; etc	Yes	0.9
65 Kappa Tauri	25.424	6	6	HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc	Yes	0.8
69 Upsilon Tauri	26.471	5	5	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; HIP 21008; etc	Yes	0.8
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18	26.589	4	4	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4; Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9; etc	Yes	-0.4
HIP 21380	26.610	5	5	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1 (9.994 LY); HIP 21008; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; etc	Yes	0.8
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3	27.512	4	4	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0 (9.980 LY); Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4; Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17; etc	No	-1
Hyades Sector VK-L a9-0	27.650	6	6	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-4; Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0; HIP 21788; etc	No	-0.3
HIP 20826	27.682	6	6	79 b Tauri; HR 1358; HIP 20616; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20719	27.717	15	15	HIP 20577 (9.953 LY); Hyadum II; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	1
HIP 21459	27.732	3	3	Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-1; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-2;	Yes	0.7
Hyades Sector JD-G a12-0	27.763	3	3	HIP 22496; HIP 22422; HIP 22203;	No	0.6

69 additional targets not listed, 84 total
With the top 9 this week all being inhabited, even if all of 2-4 on the list go to a 4-week recovery, as with Taranis I'd be surprised if we got skips lower down the order.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 59 control systems and 934 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector ZZ-Y b3	14.941	3	3	Chernobo; Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-2; Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1;	No	-0.2
Lahua	19.363	3	3	Tougeir; Muchihiks; Cephei Sector CV-Y b1;	Yes	0.9
HIP 6913	20.359	1	1	Cephei Sector EB-X b1-1;	Yes	-0
Gliese 9035	20.494	2	2	HIP 10778; Daruwach;	Yes	-0.5
Minawara	23.423	2	2	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4 (9.954 LY);	Yes	0.6
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-5	25.690	1	1	HIP 21386;	No	0.8
Gliese 9843	26.607	1	1	Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4;	No	0.4
HIP 38225	26.956	1	1	Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1;	Yes	-0.3
HIP 118207	27.045	1	1	Cephei Sector AV-Y b6;	No	-0.2
Elboongzi	27.390	1	1	Lyncis Sector VU-P b5-5;	Yes	-0.9
SPOCS 280	27.395	1	1	Cephei Sector CV-Y b1;	No	0.9
Cephei Sector ZE-A c12	28.093	1	1	Cephei Sector AV-Y b0;	No	-0.4
Cephei Sector HW-W b1-5	28.306	2	2	BD+77 84; Bumbo (9.967 LY);	No	0.9
Lyncis Sector XU-P b5-1	28.409	1	1	Jeng;	No	0.4
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b4	28.496	1	1	HIP 11111;	No	0.7
Yemaki	28.834	1	1	Cephei Sector AF-A c22;	Yes	0.3
Labed	28.925	1	1	Bumbo;	Yes	0.9
Nawad	29.018	1	1	Cephei Sector AF-A c21;	Yes	0.7

2 additional targets not listed, 20 total
As things stand the top 5 is probably pretty solid - but if there's inner defences at e.g. EB-X b1-4, I wouldn't be confident that it won't skip some uninhabited choices and go for some slightly further out inhabited ones. From a defence point of view might be worth explicitly cutting off the paths; from a science point of view we might learn more if that's not done.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 205 control systems and 788 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Khwal	21.530	8	8	Mapon; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; etc	Yes	1
Hez Ur	22.001	2	2	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; Chibis;	Yes	0.7
Desurinbin	25.105	10	10	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; etc	Yes	0.2
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2	25.947	3	3	Kurumanit; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; 19 Puppis;	Yes	0.4
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5	26.491	3	3	HR 3048; Chibis; Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-3;	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	4	4	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; etc	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5	31.444	3	3	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4	31.529	7	7	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; etc	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11	31.563	5	5	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10; etc	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-23	31.584	1	1	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1	31.586	4	4	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6; etc	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-0	31.614	1	1	HIP 35633;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-4	31.641	1	1	Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-1;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-22	31.756	1	1	Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector WD-G b12-0	31.821	6	6	Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6; Col 285 Sector US-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-1; etc	No	-0.6

56 additional targets not listed, 71 total
Hez Ur definitely on the menu this time, setting up a very nasty set of Alerts for Cocijo next time round as a bunch of systems all come out of cooldown at once.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 150 control systems and 844 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Unktety	25.357	1	1*	HIP 19198;	Yes	1
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1	31.792	2	2	Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3; Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-3;	No	-0.5
HIP 20811	36.087	1	1	Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-4;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector FA-Q c5-2	36.683	2	2	Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-1; Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-69;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector LA-G b11-3	40.626	1	1	Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-69;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73	42.662	1	1	Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-2;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector QW-D b12-0	42.744	1	1	Col 285 Sector GV-P c5-12;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15	42.885	1	1	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector IK-H b10-1	43.040	2	2	Col 285 Sector IK-H b10-0; HIP 18271;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-4	43.665	1	1	HIP 21354;	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-2	43.801	2	2	HIP 16798; Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-1;	No	-0.4
Gliese 2032	44.144	1	1	Hyades Sector NH-M b7-3;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector RR-C b13-4	44.216	1	1	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-16;	No	0.2
HIP 22159	44.432	1	1	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4;	No	0.2
28 Tau-7 Eridani	44.736	1	1	HIP 18271;	No	-0.3
Synuefe QO-Q c21-5	44.854	1	1	Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-0;	No	-0.7
HIP 22538	44.902	1	1	Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-3;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector OL-F b11-2	45.301	1	1	Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-1;	No	-0.6

2 additional targets not listed, 20 total
Thor only has one obvious inhabited option anyway this week, so this might go normally. OC-V d2-73 is sixth on the list right now

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 172 control systems and 822 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 116360	20.902	2	2*	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71;	Yes	-0.5
Aurus	25.723	7	7	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 (10.004 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20; Iduni; etc	Yes	0.1
Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0	26.940	1	1	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4;	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-1	27.013	5	5	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; etc	No	0.9
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-0	27.186	6	6	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Gl 886.1 B; etc	No	-0.4
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3	27.329	5	5	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; HIP 112595; etc	No	0.8
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1	27.392	6	6	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; Ixbaksha; etc	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1	27.419	11	11	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No	-0.3
Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2	27.462	2	2	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; HIP 113076;	No	1
Pegasi Sector JS-Q a6-2	27.531	8	8	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Tagin; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	No	0.4
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-1	27.547	6	6	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; etc	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25	27.616	2	2	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4 (9.980 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	No	0.1
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0	27.670	6	6	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Tagin; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; etc	No	0.6
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-1	27.817	10	10	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2; etc	No	0.3

85 additional targets not listed, 99 total
Two inhabited systems at the top, then a big run of uninhabited ones. Potential for something like Indra last week, of course but otherwise this should be reasonably solid.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 108 control systems and 887 targets.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 29596	18.225	1	1*	HR 2204;	Yes	0.8
Muruidooges	18.367	3	3*	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY); Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Omumba;	Yes	0.6
Bi Dhorora	18.466	2	2	Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Omumba;	Yes	0.3
Vogulu	20.728	2	2	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-4	23.484	1	1	HIP 28913;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19	26.984	7	7	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-1; etc	No	-0.8
Bagalya	27.459	3	3	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-1; HIP 28183; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-6;	Yes	-0.2
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4	28.175	4	4	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0; HIP 29217; HIP 28183; etc	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-5	28.793	3	3	HIP 29217; HIP 28183; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-6;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector RX-Z b14-8	30.470	2	2	Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1 (9.962 LY); Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-0;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-21	31.981	1	1	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-6;	No	-0.7
Heikegar	32.858	1	1	Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-0;	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-113	33.745	1	1	HIP 28183;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-1	34.008	2	2	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-24	34.136	2	2	Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-6; Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-23;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-20	34.291	1	1	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-0;	No	-0.8

4 additional targets not listed, 20 total
With four inhabited systems at the top of the list, Hadad is feeling the constraints for finding a fifth. A skip out to Bagalya or even Heikegar might be possible given what happened at Oya. On the other hand, Hadad might stay at "4 Alerts" and just take the top 4.