Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

yttrbio · Jun 8, 2023

Ned Flandalorian said:
Just curious: has anyone (at any point) checked the predicted systems that aren't picked to make sure they're properly "free"? For example there's quite a few liberated (previously thargoid controlled) systems that still have unexplained AX CZs in them despite being shown as completely human controlled. Something is obviously not right within the war simulation and it's been going on for weeks, just like the old invisible alerts around Leigong.

Systems with leftover CZs have been re-attacked in the past. I want to say Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-18 is the one I confirmed, but it has been a while

Aleks Zuno · Jun 10, 2023

May I trouble @Ian Doncaster for a full M. Thor list? HIP 16798 and Col 285 Sectors MQ-F b11-1 and GV-P c5-12 are clear, and as it happens we have deliveries upcoming for HIP 18271 and Col 285 Sectors NQ-F b11-0 and IK-H b10-0 assuming no mishaps, though mostly I would like to see spatially where the other two targets are placed.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 10, 2023

Oya update: same table as before, recapture reduces the number of extra targets only

Thor update

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Unktety	25.357	1	1*	HIP 19198;	Yes	1
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1	31.792	2	2	Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3; Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-3;	No	-0.5
HIP 20811	36.087	1	1	Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-4;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector FA-Q c5-2	36.683	2	2	Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-1; Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-69;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector LA-G b11-3	40.626	1	1	Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-69;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73	42.662	1	1	Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-2;	No	0.1
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-15	42.885	1	1	Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-4	43.665	1	1	HIP 21354;	No	0.2
Gliese 2032	44.144	1	1	Hyades Sector NH-M b7-3;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector RR-C b13-4	44.216	1	1	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-16;	No	0.2
HIP 22159	44.432	1	1	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-4;	No	0.2
HIP 22538	44.902	1	1	Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-3;	No	0.5
Hyades Sector SI-T c3-4	46.109	2	2	Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-5; Hyades Sector NM-M b7-1;	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector DZ-H b10-1	46.446	1	1	Hyades Sector NM-M b7-1;	No	0.2

No further targets possible
3 pending recaptures assumed

Hadad update

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 29596	18.225	1	1*	HR 2204;	Yes	0.8
Muruidooges	18.367	3	3*	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY); Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Omumba;	Yes	0.6
Bi Dhorora	18.466	2	2	Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Omumba;	Yes	0.3
Vogulu	20.728	2	2	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-4	23.484	1	1	HIP 28913;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19	26.984	5	5	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0; HIP 29217; etc	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4	28.175	2	2	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0; HIP 29217;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-5	28.793	1	1	HIP 29217;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-1	34.008	2	2	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-24	34.136	2	2	Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-6; Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-23;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-20	34.291	1	1	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-0;	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector YI-Z b14-1	34.497	1	1	Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-23;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector VC-B b14-3	34.753	1	1	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector LL-D b13-7	35.558	1	1	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-29;	No	-0.4
HIP 27978	37.841	1	1	Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-3;	No	-0.7

No further targets possible

Aleks Zuno · Jun 11, 2023

Once again with M. Thor, with some lament for disrupting that previous one so soon, although this time I hope to present @Ian Doncaster with some nice scientific rewards:

A pleasing situation I imagine we have yet to encounter.
A choice; we can let the Thargoid council attempt Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73 again regardless of what no longer follows it, or prevent it at your request!

Ian Doncaster · Jun 11, 2023

Oya update

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector ZZ-Y b3	14.941	3	3	Chernobo; Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-2; Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1;	No	-0.2
Lahua	19.363	3	3	Tougeir; Muchihiks; Cephei Sector CV-Y b1;	Yes	0.9
Gliese 9035	20.494	2	2	HIP 10778; Daruwach;	Yes	-0.5
Minawara	23.423	2	2	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4 (9.954 LY);	Yes	0.6
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-5	25.690	1	1	HIP 21386;	No	0.8
Gliese 9843	26.607	1	1	Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4;	No	0.4
HIP 38225	26.956	1	1	Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1;	Yes	-0.3
HIP 118207	27.045	1	1	Cephei Sector AV-Y b6;	No	-0.2
Elboongzi	27.390	1	1	Lyncis Sector VU-P b5-5;	Yes	-0.9
SPOCS 280	27.395	1	1	Cephei Sector CV-Y b1;	No	0.9
Cephei Sector ZE-A c12	28.093	1	1	Cephei Sector AV-Y b0;	No	-0.4
Cephei Sector HW-W b1-5	28.306	2	2	BD+77 84; Bumbo (9.967 LY);	No	0.9
Lyncis Sector XU-P b5-1	28.409	1	1	Jeng;	No	0.4
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b4	28.496	1	1	HIP 11111;	No	0.7
Yemaki	28.834	1	1	Cephei Sector AF-A c22;	Yes	0.3
Labed	28.925	1	1	Bumbo;	Yes	0.9
Nawad	29.018	1	1	Cephei Sector AF-A c21;	Yes	0.7
Mileku	30.550	1	1	Cephei Sector CQ-Y b5;	Yes	0.3

0 additional targets not listed, 18 total
HIP 6913 prevented by recapture at Cephei Sector

Thor update

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Unktety	25.357	1	1*	HIP 19198;	Yes	1
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73	42.662	1	1	Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-2;	No	0.1

No further targets possible
Very impressive clearance! FU-H b10-2 has the option to instead hit three other uninhabited systems (FU-H b10-4, DZ-H b10-1, Hyades KB-O b6-2) so I would say we have the chance to learn more by letting it try. We had parallel situations under the old budgeting where Thor regularly couldn't find 20 targets - well done for getting it below 5.

Dev Gnoll · Jun 11, 2023

Question: We've to difficulty rate in samples down pat. Do we have a conversion from types of kills to samples?

Or put another way:
How many scout/cyclops/hunter kills do we need to get to make up a sample.

I suspect its just a big linear equations where for a system:
Progress = ( A*Samples + B*Scouts + C*Cyclops + D*Medusas + E*Hunters +...) /Goal Where A,B,C,D,E.. are constants for the type of 'goid killed

And we are setting B,C,D,E,...=0 and solving for Samples to find the difficulty in samples (Goal/A)

Now that we have a really fine-grained progress values, it shouldn't be to hard to develop the same in Scouts, and then a few more passes to set up enough equations to find C and E. (I can't solo anything bigger...) Then we'll be able to fine conversion rates between the types.

Because we have now 4 digits of progress to work with, it should be possible to get a measurement of progress per type in a single session with a single player.

Thoughts? Already done? Are there unpopulated and ignored control systems to try this in?

Ian Doncaster · Jun 11, 2023

Dev Gnoll said:
Are there unpopulated and ignored control systems to try this in?

Plenty. Taranis, Indra, and Raijin are probably the most likely to have clean targets to check - anything uninhabited currently at 0% there probably won't be gaining any significant attention in the second half of the cycle either.

Grimscrub · Jun 11, 2023

Zero uninhabited alerts in taranis and the raijin one was already cleared this week i'm afraid, all the uninhabited ones in indra showing some progress... consequences of invasions** clearing on a friday i suppose.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 11, 2023

Grimscrub said:
Zero uninhabited alerts in taranis and the raijin one was already cleared this week i'm afraid, all the uninhabited ones in indra showing some progress... consequences of invasions** clearing on a friday i suppose.

Plenty of uninhabited controls, though.

yttrbio · Jun 11, 2023

FYI, when I was retaking one of the Leigong spur systems, Ceti Sector DB-X b1-3 (which should be on the flat section of the curve), 8 scout kills gave 0.0052% progress.

Shayan al Nasarwa · Jun 11, 2023

yttrbio said:
FYI, when I was retaking one of the Leigong spur systems, Ceti Sector DB-X b1-3 (which should be on the flat section of the curve), 8 scout kills gave 0.0052% progress.

I can confirm this... in Cephei Sector AV-Y b4 (control, 24,97 ly away from oya, 22.05.2023) I killed scouts to find out how much will be needed to finish the system - only by killing scouts. The progress given by one scout was 0,0004% or in sum 250.000 scouts.

CMDR Vulkarius · Jun 13, 2023

deanom59 said:
For the last couple of weeks i've been loooking at the "Attackers" listed for Oya to see if any were indicated in more than one alert. Hindered somewhat by the etc's (more than 3 per Alert and not listed). This week Cephei Sector ZE-A c8 has an effect on 2 potential alerts. What I wondered is can your system work in reverse to show which control systems attack the most potential alerts? If so, it may be a way to identify the recapture targets that will have the most impact.

Aleks Zuno said:
If INTRA is to do anything like that then @CMDR Vulkarius would be the one to comment or to promise anything. If I recall, it would need a separate system list for this because it only knows or cares about populated systems as far as missions are concerned!

At risk of basically reimplementing the Narwhal Nose in SQL, I tried giving INTRA an extra system list around the maelstroms so it can use the cycle activity tables to look for new targets.
It is probably wrong and missing a bunch of Ian's rules, but let's see how this goes using the live data for Hadad right now as an example.

WITH rules like the recapture/attack cooldowns and hiding used attackers I get 22 rows which should be a flat version of Narwhal Nose with today's report applied (attacker vs target, repeat targets mean more attackers, repeat attackers are only the ones not used first earlier in the list)...

HR 2204	HIP 29596
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2	Muruidooges
Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0	Muruidooges
Omumba	Muruidooges
Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0	Bi Dhorora
Omumba	Bi Dhorora
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5	Vogulu
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4	Vogulu
HIP 28913	Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-4
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19
HIP 29217	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-1	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-0	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4
HIP 29217	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4
HIP 29217	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-5
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7	Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-1
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2	Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-1
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-0	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-20
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2	Col 285 Sector VC-B b14-3
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-29	Col 285 Sector LL-D b13-7

WITHOUT the used/cooldown/recovery rules I get 129 rows which should be every way a not already attacked system can be attacked...

Montioch	HIP 29596
HR 2204	HIP 29596
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2	Muruidooges
Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0	Muruidooges
Montioch	Muruidooges
Omumba	Muruidooges
HR 2204	Muruidooges
Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0	Bi Dhorora
Montioch	Bi Dhorora
Omumba	Bi Dhorora
HR 2204	Bi Dhorora
Omumba	Fotlandjera
Montioch	Vogulu
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5	Vogulu
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4	Vogulu
Montioch	Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2
HIP 28913	Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-2
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10	Yan Zangata
HIP 30158	Yan Zangata
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11	Yan Zangata
HIP 28913	Yan Zangata
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-1
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-1
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-1
HIP 28913	Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-4
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-2	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-1
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-1
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-0	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-1
HIP 28913	Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-0
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6
Vasupari	Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-5
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-2
HIP 29217	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-2
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-5	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-3	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-1
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19
HIP 29217	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-1	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-0	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16	Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-1
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17	Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31	HIP 32718
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29	HIP 32718
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-29	HIP 32718
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4	Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-0
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-0
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-4
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4
HIP 29217	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-5
HIP 29217	Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-5
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17	HIP 32860
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5	HIP 32860
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11	Col 285 Sector OM-B b14-7
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-4	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-3
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-0	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-10
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-10
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-10
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-10
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5	Col 285 Sector ZY-X b15-8
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-0	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9	Col 285 Sector PR-B b14-3
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-7	Col 285 Sector PR-B b14-3
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-19
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-19
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-19
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6	Col 285 Sector PR-B b14-1
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11	HIP 28150
HIP 28913	HIP 28150
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-1	Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-4
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7	Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-4
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-0	Col 285 Sector UC-B b14-4
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-6
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17	Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-6
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-0	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-21
HIP 29217	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-21
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-5
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-20
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-20
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-1	Col 285 Sector PB-D b13-5
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-0	Col 285 Sector PB-D b13-5
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-84
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17	Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-84
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-5	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-6
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-6
HIP 29217	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-2
HIP 28913	Thotigue
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7	Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-1
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2	Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-1
HIP 28913	HIP 28474
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-0	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-20
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7	Col 285 Sector VC-B b14-3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2	Col 285 Sector VC-B b14-3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-0	Col 285 Sector VC-B b14-3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7	Col 285 Sector VC-B b14-5
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-0	Col 285 Sector VC-B b14-5
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-29	Col 285 Sector LL-D b13-7
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7	Col 285 Sector VC-B b14-4
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-29	Col 285 Sector LL-D b13-8
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7	Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-6
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2	Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-6
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-0	Col 285 Sector VC-B b14-6
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-0	Col 285 Sector PB-D b13-0
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7	Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2	Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7	Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-2
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-2	Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-2

If @deanom59 was basically asking to see the worst attackers long term, that would be like the 2nd list with the rules disabled but grouped by attacker instead?
If I can hassle together a proper view of it and keep it fed with the extra info for which controls caused which alerts, that would update automatically when it has new scan data.

Recaptured controls would disappear throughout the week as Tharg gets probinated some more, and you could check or uncheck the different rules to change what you see.
All rules enabled should show just what needs stopping this week, and the "used", "cooldown", "recovery" flags can be toggled to see more of what could potentially be attacked on some future week.
After that it just needs the tissue sample interpolations and it could literally report the total it would cost to stop each attack, throw in the future cost of the attacked system and we get a full cost/benefit report.

Apologies to @Ian Doncaster for nicking the target prediction ideas and MAJOR credit for figuring out all of that in the first place!

deanom59 · Jun 13, 2023

That is really good. 2nd list grouped by attacker would be what I was hoping might be possible. Distance from maelstrom and whether formerly populated would have been additional requests but this would have been to use your graphs to calculate costs. if you're able to automate that even better.
Hopefully something useful may come from the initial question.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 14, 2023

Last set of interim updates for the week, though there is scope for some final recaptures to change a bit more

Taranis
Planned recapture of HIP 25679 will not change predicted targets due to range of alternative controls present though does reduce the number of off-table reserves slightly.

Oya

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector ZZ-Y b3	14.941	3	3	Chernobo; Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-2; Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1;	No	-0.2
Lahua	19.363	3	3	Tougeir; Muchihiks; Cephei Sector CV-Y b1;	Yes	0.9
Gliese 9035	20.494	2	2	HIP 10778; Daruwach;	Yes	-0.5
Minawara	23.423	2	2	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4 (9.954 LY);	Yes	0.6
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-5	25.690	1	1	HIP 21386;	No	0.8
Gliese 9843	26.607	1	1	Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4;	No	0.4
HIP 38225	26.956	1	1	Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1;	Yes	-0.3
HIP 118207	27.045	1	1	Cephei Sector AV-Y b6;	No	-0.2
SPOCS 280	27.395	1	1	Cephei Sector CV-Y b1;	No	0.9
Cephei Sector ZE-A c12	28.093	1	1	Cephei Sector AV-Y b0;	No	-0.4
Cephei Sector HW-W b1-5	28.306	2	2	BD+77 84; Bumbo (9.967 LY);	No	0.9
Lyncis Sector XU-P b5-1	28.409	1	1	Jeng;	No	0.4
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b4	28.496	1	1	HIP 11111;	No	0.7
Yemaki	28.834	1	1	Cephei Sector AF-A c22;	Yes	0.3
Labed	28.925	1	1	Bumbo;	Yes	0.9
Nawad	29.018	1	1	Cephei Sector AF-A c21;	Yes	0.7
Mileku	30.550	1	1	Cephei Sector CQ-Y b5;	Yes	0.3

No further targets possible
Elboongzi is now safe as well

Cocijo
Recaptures affect off-table reserves only, main prediction continues.

Hadad

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 29596	18.225	1	1*	HR 2204;	Yes	0.8
Muruidooges	18.367	3	3*	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY); Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Omumba;	Yes	0.6
Bi Dhorora	18.466	2	2	Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Omumba;	Yes	0.3
Vogulu	20.728	2	2	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-4	23.484	1	1	HIP 28913;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19	26.984	2	2	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-1 (9.938 LY);	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-1	34.008	1	1	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7;	No	-0.9

No further targets possible
As above, it remains unclear whether this will be a four- or five-Alert week naturally, though five seems more likely if there are still five targets left by Thursday morning ... noting that the top two are still dependent on Recovery finishing on a three-week cycle as well.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 14, 2023

Separately, I've also been looking at some other things, and these lists might be of interest to some: they're the Control systems which can't trace a 10LY hop through other Controls back to the Maelstrom, so if you recapture them, they should stay recaptured for quite a while. Five Maelstroms have full connectivity still ... for the other three:

Leigong

System	Distance
HIP 10056	21.76223165
Hyades Sector LN-K b8-3	25.22509988
Hyades Sector LN-K b8-4	25.70606461
Hyades Sector LN-K b8-2	26.37692529
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-2	29.48322815
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1	34.62892013

(Incidentally, for research purposes I'd appreciate the Arietis ones being left alone this week, please. They're only targeting other uninhabited systems, but it'll be an easy proof that connectivity back to the Maelstrom isn't required to launch an attack that doesn't require me to back-check previous weeks)

Oya

System	Distance
Chernobo	15.57607967
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2	15.98888774
Tougeir	16.22455941
Liu Huang	17.75687587
Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-2	18.02935432
Akbakara	18.17006789
HR 1107	18.24317616
HIP 24329	18.93453463
Muchihiks	19.56140173
HIP 8825	19.96312519
HIP 21386	20.50900145
Lyncis Sector TZ-P b5-1	20.5449916
Cephei Sector CV-Y b1	22.03949314
Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1	22.22951568
Jeng	23.03807565
Ikpen	24.17130433
Cephei Sector CQ-Y b5	24.51073983

Thor

System	Distance
Rajuarpai	11.4695589
Chanyaya	16.10879151
HIP 19894	16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14	17.71585625
HIP 20024	19.46077284
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0	21.77609336
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1	21.81126877
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0	22.79575584
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1	23.95464872
HIP 18857	24.61621433
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5	24.84190245
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2	25.94627111
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3	26.05759096
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-4	30.23485545
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-5	31.49809332
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-3	31.52685177
Col 285 Sector ML-E b12-5	35.7163303
Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-4	36.69634955

CMDR Vulkarius · Jun 15, 2023

Really late question - should Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3 have been listed as the first attacker for Hez Ur at Cocijo?
It was top last time but didn't attack due to recovery, and couldn't have been the attacker of targets 2-6 either.

CMDR Vulkarius · Jun 15, 2023

Prototype toy for @deanom59 - https://dev.iniv.space/targets/28
Click the group by target/attacker at the top to change it (only has immediate targets with ruled applied for now).
It doesn't cache that test view, so please don't quank the server with a request flood there

I set the attackers at Cocijo so that 2-6 were used last time, so it differs with Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3 attacking Hez Ur this time.
It also only knows those last attackers, so changing the URL to list previous cycles will be way off.
It doesn't know about any of the >10 LY cases, but it uses a adjacency table to optimise the report anyway, so those could be added to the table.
We also stopped the last 3 Hadad targets earlier, so those should disappear when it gets the final scan data, or a EDDN report

Ian Doncaster · Jun 15, 2023

CMDR Vulkarius said:
Really late question - should Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3 have been listed as the first attacker for Hez Ur at Cocijo?
It was top last time but didn't attack due to recovery, and couldn't have been the attacker of targets 2-6 either.

Well spotted, thank you!
Fortunately that error doesn't materially change the Cocijo prediction.

CMDR Vulkarius said:
It also only knows those last attackers, so changing the URL to list previous cycles will be way off.

I haven't found a sensible way to do this that's quicker than building a manual list; the Narwhal Nose tool produces a convenient starter point for it but it still needs cross-checking against which ones actually get Alerted, which as you can see I didn't quite get right this time.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 15, 2023

End-of-cycle updates:
Hadad, as expected, is down to just its top 4 inhabited Alerts and nothing else.
The recaptures have also disconnected Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-4 and b14-5

Meanwhile, at Taranis, while the recapture of HIP 25769 doesn't materially change the prediction, it has disconnected HIP 25670, Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1, Matshiru, Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5 and Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6. Many of these are also being used for attacks further out so if those could also be recaptured and the bottleneck at HIP 25679 held, it could keep the Thargoids out of an entire region of near-Taranis space for relatively low cost.

At Oya, the recapture of Bumbo prevents attacks on Labed, but doesn't change the top 5.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 15, 2023

Well, another mixed week for the predictor:

Taranis: 60%. Imeut and Ebisu didn't go to a fourth recovery week, but weren't targeted anyway. Next two reserves used instead.
Leigong: 100%. Confirmation received that Controls do not have to be able to trace connectivity to launch attacks, which makes clearing disconnected blocks very valuable.
Indra: 60%. HIP 20890 and HIP 20899 went to four weeks, but Kagutsuchi didn't and was still skipped. Then we get Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18 (uninhabited, backwards) skipped in favour of HIP 21380 (inhabited, forwards) for the second mistake - which was somewhat expected but not yet part of the model.
Oya: 80%*. Top four targets were correct; unexpected failure to place fifth Alert at all despite a substantial number of options including inhabited systems. The nominally skipped system - Cephei Sector FB-X b1-5 - has previously been a Control system.
Cocijo: 100%
Thor: 50% (1 of 2, since Unktety went to four weeks). The system previously skipped twice in Thor's 4 Alert week and last week is Alerted uncontroversially this time ... but FU-H b10-4 is also hit. It's possible that the confusion of last cycle meant I marked the wrong Control as exhausted and so missed that possibility.
Raijin: 80% (HIP 116360 had a 3-week recovery but was skipped anyway)
Hadad: 100% (2 of 2, since both HIP 29596 and Muruidooges went to 4 weeks)

So ... based on this:

It seems uncontroversial to suggest that the Thargoids now won't attack a system in its fourth recovery week, even if that week is spent in "safe" state due to repairs to surface bases. I will adjust the model to exclude these systems entirely in future weeks, so today's initial report will be delayed slightly. This accounts for 4 of the 7 errors.
Based on Indra this week and Oya last week, it seems that inhabited systems now count as "closer" than uninhabited systems when constructing a priority order. I will not adjust the model formally for this but we can start trying to put some bounds on it to see if that gives a consistent explanation. This accounts for 1 of the 7 errors.
It appears from Hadad, Thor, Hadad again and now Oya that heavy attacks on a Maelstrom can cause it to skip an Alert the following week. This doesn't appear to be directly related to the number of Controls retaken, but does so far require a lot to be retaken. So far it's only occurred in Maelstroms with relatively few outward options - it might be interesting to see if an ultra-heavy attack on Indra, Cocijo or Raijin with their much larger option lists and fewer bottlenecks could achieve the same outcome. This accounts for 1 of the 7 errors and will likely cause more in future (but at least "attack does not occur at all" is a nicer sort of error to have for defence planners)
The final error at Thor is likely data entry rather than modelling problems, and I'll just try to be more careful this week, and also post the "exhaust" list I'm using for peer review as part of the predictions in future.