Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

Ian Doncaster · Jun 15, 2023

Narwhal Nose report generated 15 June

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; these can still attack but are strategically interesting.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis
Read 119 control systems and 872 targets.
Total connected: 114
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
HIP 25670	15.28147367
Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1	18.60194147
Matshiru	19.81269716
Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5	25.77177856
Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6	26.91604787

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 23716	18.430	6	6	Trianguli Sector BA-A d85; Trianguli Sector CA-A c22; Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4; etc	Yes	0.9
Imeut	19.132	4	4	HIP 25670; Hyades Sector FB-N b7-3; Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1; etc	Yes	0.8
Ebisu	21.049	6	6	Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4; Hyades Sector EB-N b7-0; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-87 (10.024 LY); etc	Yes	0.1
Cao Tzu	21.518	4	4	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-87; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-86; Hyades Sector AV-O b6-4; etc	Yes	-0
HIP 26274	23.642	2	2	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-81; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1;	Yes	0.1
Hyades Sector AV-O b6-5	23.975	2	2	Hyades Sector AV-O b6-4; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-76;	Yes	-0.1
HIP 21991	25.786	1	1	Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-5 (9.904 LY);	Yes	0.4
Ge	27.683	3	3	Haushu; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-2;	Yes	0.2
HIP 26926	28.170	2	2	Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-2;	Yes	0.3
Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-1	28.922	2	2	Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5; Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6;	No	0.6
Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-3	28.969	2	2	Trianguli Sector ZJ-A b1; Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-0;	Yes	0.2
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-5	29.058	2	2	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-3; Hyades Sector EG-N b7-4;	No	0.3
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-4	29.072	3	3	Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-4;	No	-0.9
Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-4	29.264	3	3	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-82; Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-3; HIP 25388;	No	-0.5

28 additional targets not listed, 42 total
Five strongly connected inhabited systems at the top, so those should be pretty safe

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 164 control systems and 831 targets.
Total connected: 158
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
HIP 10056	21.76223165
Hyades Sector LN-K b8-3	25.22509988
Hyades Sector LN-K b8-4	25.70606461
Hyades Sector LN-K b8-2	26.37692529
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-2	29.48322815
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1	34.62892013

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 10921	24.886	2	2	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-2; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-3;	No	0.4
Arietis Sector YU-P b5-0	25.203	1	1	Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-12	27.424	1	1	Arietis Sector KM-W d1-93;	No	0.9
Arietis Sector EW-N b6-2	28.339	1	1	Arietis Sector EW-N b6-1;	No	0.8
Arietis Sector UO-R b4-4	30.971	1	1	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-3;	No	0.6
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-3	38.317	2	2	HIP 6380; HIP 6869;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-0	38.335	3	3	Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-4; Arietis Sector VO-R b4-0; Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-2;	No	0.8
HIP 10710	40.027	1	1	Arietis Sector FG-Y d68;	No	-0.2
Hyades Sector CB-O b6-0	40.524	2	2	Hyades Sector CB-O b6-1; HIP 11309;	No	-0.8
Arietis Sector SD-T b3-0	40.755	1	1	Arietis Sector FG-Y d49;	No	-0.6
Hyades Sector KX-U d2-49	40.890	1	1	HIP 5685;	No	0.3
Matsucha	41.285	2	2	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-0; Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-2;	Yes	0.9
HIP 5207	41.309	1	1	Col 285 Sector DG-O c6-16;	No	0
HIP 5662	41.411	1	1	HIP 6001;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector GM-C b13-2	41.624	1	1	Hyades Sector MT-I b9-1;	No	-0.1
Bamarakw	42.099	1	1	Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-2;	Yes	0.9
Arietis Sector GG-Y d68	42.349	1	1	HIP 11309;	No	-0.6
Arietis Sector QS-U b2-3	44.039	2	2	Arietis Sector QS-U b2-2; Arietis Sector EL-Y c8;	No	-0.6

4 additional targets not listed, 22 total
Nothing inhabited near the top. Jumping all the way down to Matsucha is possible but it's 10 LY further out than the 5th on the list so that would get us quite a bit of info if so.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 155 control systems and 839 targets.
Total connected: 155

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 20890	21.889	14	14	64 Tauri (10.013 LY); HIP 20577; HIP 20679; etc	Yes	0.9
Kagutsuchi	22.496	2	2	Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3; Arietis Sector NH-V b2-0;	Yes	-0.4
HIP 20899	23.086	23	23	71 Tauri; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc	Yes	1
HIP 20492	24.043	22	22	HIP 20916; HIP 20577; 86 Rho Tauri; etc	Yes	1
HIP 20019	25.583	19	19	HIP 20577; HIP 20679; Hyadum II; etc	Yes	1
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18	26.589	4	4	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4; Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9; etc	Yes	-0.4
HIP 20850	26.986	14	14	77 Theta-1 Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	0.9
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3	27.512	4	4	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0 (9.980 LY); Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4; Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17; etc	No	-1
Hyades Sector VK-L a9-0	27.650	6	6	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-4; Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0; HIP 21788; etc	No	-0.3
HIP 20826	27.682	6	6	79 b Tauri; HR 1358; HIP 20616; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20719	27.717	15	15	Hyadum II; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	1
HIP 21459	27.732	3	3	Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-1; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-2;	Yes	0.7
Hyades Sector JD-G a12-0	27.763	3	3	HIP 22496; HIP 22422; HIP 22203;	No	0.6
89 Tauri	27.775	12	12	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; etc	No	0.9

69 additional targets not listed, 83 total
Lots of inhabited systems at the top, so this is likely to come through normally

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 52 control systems and 940 targets.
Total connected: 37
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Chernobo	15.57607967
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2	15.98888774
Tougeir	16.22455941
Liu Huang	17.75687587
Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-2	18.02935432
Akbakara	18.17006789
HR 1107	18.24317616
HIP 24329	18.93453463
Muchihiks	19.56140173
HIP 8825	19.96312519
HIP 21386	20.50900145
Lyncis Sector TZ-P b5-1	20.5449916
Cephei Sector CV-Y b1	22.03949314
Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1	22.22951568
Jeng	23.03807565

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 6913	20.359	1	1	HR 1107;	Yes	-0
Luggerates	21.962	3	3	Sambaho; Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4;	Yes	0.3
MCC 105	22.322	1	1	HIP 21386;	Yes	0.9
Aowicha	23.769	1	1	Daruwach;	Yes	-0.3
Poqomathi	24.136	3	3	Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1; HIP 8525; HIP 7338 (10.020 LY);	Yes	0.6
Cephei Sector AV-Y b4	24.975	1	1	Cephei Sector AV-Y b6;	No	-0.2
Gliese 3050	25.579	2	2	HIP 8525; HIP 7338;	No	0.6
Gliese 9843	26.607	2	2	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1; Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4;	No	0.4
HIP 38225	26.956	1	1	Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1;	Yes	-0.3
Cephei Sector AV-Y b5	26.964	1	1	Cephei Sector EB-X b1-4;	No	-0.1
SPOCS 280	27.395	1	1	Cephei Sector CV-Y b1;	No	0.9
Cephei Sector ZE-A c12	28.093	1	1	Cephei Sector AV-Y b0;	No	-0.4
Cephei Sector HW-W b1-5	28.306	1	1	BD+77 84;	No	0.9
Lyncis Sector XU-P b5-1	28.409	1	1	Jeng;	No	0.4
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b4	28.496	1	1	HIP 11111;	No	0.7
Yemaki	28.834	1	1	Cephei Sector AF-A c22;	Yes	0.3
Nawad	29.018	1	1	Cephei Sector AF-A c21;	Yes	0.7

No further targets possible
Top five are all inhabited, but will Oya place a full five or just four, and will it do a Hadad/Thor-style "further out" run? There's also a few opportunities here for recaptures on disconnected branches to permanently clear things up.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 203 control systems and 790 targets.
Total connected: 203

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7	23.878	1	1	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2;	No	0.7
Laumas	29.269	8	8	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	Yes	0.5
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5	29.605	2	2	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	No	0.8
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-3	29.643	4	4	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; HR 3048; Chibis; etc	No	1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	2	2	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2	30.067	1	1	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0;	No	0.7
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16	30.965	4	4	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; etc	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-8	30.992	3	3	Njana; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-3;	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5	31.444	3	3	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4	31.529	7	7	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; etc	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11	31.563	5	5	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10; etc	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-23	31.584	4	4	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25; etc	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1	31.586	4	4	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6; etc	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-0	31.614	1	1	HIP 35633;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-4	31.641	1	1	Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-1;	No	0.3

58 additional targets not listed, 73 total
Not much inhabited in the top 5 ... but nothing on the immediate reserve list either. Not impossible that it could target inhabited systems further down the list, though.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 134 control systems and 863 targets.
Total connected: 116
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Rajuarpai	11.4695589
Chanyaya	16.10879151
HIP 19894	16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14	17.71585625
HIP 20024	19.46077284
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0	21.77609336
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1	21.81126877
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0	22.79575584
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1	23.95464872
HIP 18857	24.61621433
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5	24.84190245
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2	25.94627111
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3	26.05759096
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-4	30.23485545
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-5	31.49809332
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-3	31.52685177
Col 285 Sector ML-E b12-5	35.7163303
Col 285 Sector DF-Q c5-4	42.75242135

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Unktety	25.357	1	1	HIP 19198;	Yes	1
HIP 16954	32.671	1	1	HIP 17897;	Yes	0.4
Col 285 Sector DF-Q c5-18	41.002	1	1	Col 285 Sector DF-Q c5-4;	No	0.2
HIP 22159	44.432	2	2	Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-3; Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-17;	No	0.2
Synuefe QO-Q c21-5	44.854	1	1	Synuefe QO-Q c21-1;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector OL-F b11-2	45.301	1	1	Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-2;	No	-0.6
HIP 22632	45.364	1	1	Col 285 Sector CF-Q c5-17 (10.022 LY);	No	0.4

No further targets possible
Thor's previous disaster week has left it with very few places to launch Alerts from this week either. There's a little uncertainty over which Controls were used last week but it doesn't appear to be affecting the prediction either way.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 172 control systems and 823 targets.
Total connected: 172

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 116360	20.902	2	2	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71;	Yes	-0.5
Holvandalla	21.476	10	10	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc	Yes	0.6
Isla	23.900	5	5	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2 (9.952 LY); HIP 116542; Wanmi; etc	Yes	-0.1
Kuruma	25.524	2	2	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; Tagin;	Yes	0.2
Koko Oh	27.066	12	12	HIP 113535; Vistnero; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; etc	Yes	0.6
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-104	27.209	1	1	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6;	No	-0.7
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-3	27.266	4	4	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4; etc	No	0.9
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1	27.392	6	6	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; Ixbaksha; etc	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1	27.419	11	11	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No	-0.3
Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2	27.462	1	1	HIP 113076;	No	1
Pegasi Sector JS-Q a6-2	27.531	8	8	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Tagin; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	No	0.4
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-1	27.547	6	6	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; etc	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25	27.616	2	2	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4 (9.980 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	No	0.1
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0	27.670	6	6	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Tagin; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; etc	No	0.6

86 additional targets not listed, 100 total
With five inhabited systems at the top of the list, it'll probably do just that.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 91 control systems and 907 targets.
Total connected: 89
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-5	26.54576679
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-4	26.61885566

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 29596	18.225	2	2	Montioch; HR 2204;	Yes	0.8
Muruidooges	18.367	3	3	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY); Omumba; HR 2204;	Yes	0.6
Fotlandjera	19.687	1	1	Omumba;	Yes	0.2
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2	22.853	3	3	Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-19	26.984	2	2	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2; Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22;	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector OB-D b13-4	28.175	1	1	Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-22;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector OM-B b14-7	29.573	1	1	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-11;	No	0.8
Col 285 Sector ZY-X b15-8	30.307	1	1	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-6	31.837	2	2	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-84	32.479	1	1	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-17;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-6	33.221	1	1	Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-5;	No	-1

No further targets possible
Also a relatively short list of possible Alert targets in total here, where the main reason to believe that it won't be the top 5 is that Hadad start-of-week predictions always need revising mid-week anyway.

And new from now on ... here's the list of controls presumed exhausted. Format is "system name : probability of exhaustion", probability should usually be 1 but as noted above there's a little uncertainty in Thor this week.

Code:

-- Taranis
Matshiru:1
Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3:1
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b5:1
Trianguli Sector FG-Y d96:1
Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14:1
-- Leigong
Jementi:1
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-2:1
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1:1
Arietis Sector VO-R b4-4:1
Arietis Sector JM-W d1-83:1
-- Indra
63 Tauri:1
HR 1354:1
HIP 20712:1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4:1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1:1
-- Oya
Chernobo:1
Tougeir:1
HIP 10778:1
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-0:1
-- Cocijo
Mapon:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5:1
Kurumanit:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-2:1
---- not sure precisely, so go half-and-half on each
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-3:0.5
HIP 20807:0.5
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0:1
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5:1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0:1
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5:1

Starsong · Jun 15, 2023

Huh. If enough of the right systems are cleared at Hadad, it may actually be possible to stop it having enough eligible targets to place five Alerts.

CMDR Vulkarius · Jun 16, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
Indra: 60%. HIP 20890 and HIP 20899 went to four weeks, but Kagutsuchi didn't and was still skipped. Then we get Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18 (uninhabited, backwards) skipped in favour of HIP 21380 (inhabited, forwards) for the second mistake - which was somewhat expected but not yet part of the model.

Noticed something while giving INTRA the attackers/targets for this cycle and checking against your comments about what got skipped!
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18 is actually inhabited (and been invaded a couple times) but unlike the other places it has no orbital outposts/starports, only planetary.
The "unpopulated = extra distance" idea could still work but maybe Tharg's definition is actually "no orbitals" (so unpopulated meets that automatically).
Could also have multiple levels with different missing port types adding more virtual distance.

Ian Doncaster said:
It seems uncontroversial to suggest that the Thargoids now won't attack a system in its fourth recovery week, even if that week is spent in "safe" state due to repairs to surface bases.

This rule works really well!
After adding it and refreshing the cycle 28 targets it removed all the ones you asterisked and only improved the whole thing.
I reckon the damaged recovery was always meant to be like that - you get 4 weeks alien-free, but actually finishing it leaves everything open for business again.

I got rid of all query logic based on recovery states, rewrote it purely to use the non-recovery parts of your cooldown image, then changed damage invasions from 3 to 4.
Basically alerts and no-damage invasions are 2, damage invasions and controls are 4, recovery can be ignored.

with a as (select addr,war,prog,prog_eddn from act where cycle=?1 and (?2 or addr not in (select addr_x from attack where cycle=?1))),
a_addr as (select addr from act join sys using(addr) where cycle<=?1 and war!='R' and (cycle=?1 or (not ?3 and prog>=100 and cycle>?1-case when war='A' then 2 when war='I' then (case when act.ports<sys.ports then 4 else 2 end) when war='C' then 4 end)))
select m.addr maddr, m.name mname,
x.addr xaddr, x.name xname, x.mael_d xdist, x.inhab xpop,
y.addr yaddr, y.name yname, y.mael_d ydist, y.inhab ypop
from a
join s.sys x using(addr)
join s.mael m on x.mael_addr=m.addr
join s.sys ms on ms.addr=m.addr
left join near n on x.addr in (n.addr_a, n.addr_b)
join s.sys y on y.addr in (n.addr_a, n.addr_b) and y.addr not in (x.addr, y.mael_addr) and y.addr not in a_addr
where a.war='C' and a.prog<100 and a.prog_eddn<1.0
order by ms.x desc, y.mael_d asc, x.mael_d asc

Adding a group by and an aggregate gives Narwhal Nose but I handled that elsewhere for display reasons.
Finding the cooldown could be cleaned up a bit because it has multiple code paths for 2 and 4, but for now it's nice to keep an easy way to change it for different states.

Starsong said:
Huh. If enough of the right systems are cleared at Hadad, it may actually be possible to stop it having enough eligible targets to place five Alerts.

Bit more than maybe, we did that last cycle and now it only attacked 2 systems.
Same at Thor - that would have been 0 but we left one for science.

CMDR Vulkarius · Jun 16, 2023

Right, I think I got this cycle's attacks added.
This should update itself as we get new scan or EDDN data - https://dev.iniv.space/targets/29 + ping @deanom59

I undid FU-H b10-3 attacking OC-V d2-75 at Thor last cycle (28), so now that flags up a warning.
Those targets match what we can see on the map this cycle (29) though, so I assumed FU-H b10-2 attacked OC-V d2-73 and FU-H b10-3 attacked FU-H b10-4.
Looking at it I think the only differences now are where Narwhal Nose has >10 LY adjacency cases.
Do we know any upper/lower limits for that, or know if there are cases where 10.02 did attack but 10.01 did not?

Ian Doncaster · Jun 16, 2023

CMDR Vulkarius said:
or know if there are cases where 10.02 did attack but 10.01 did not?

Yes, unfortunately. Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-5 didn't attack Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-9 (10.00 LY but above 10 at the third decimal place) ... but Arietis Sector GG-Y d63 may have been attacked from HIP 10921 at a distance of 10.013 LY and I think there was a much earlier example in the 10.01-10.02 distance range as well.

I haven't been able to reverse-engineer a rounding algorithm to make that work without also ruling out other attacks we know happened below 10 LY, and it's so rare that I think just using a strict 10 as the distance is probably fine in general - there's been exactly one exception to it while NN has been running.

CMDR Vulkarius said:
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18 is actually inhabited

It is - I've even got it recorded as inhabited, too.

I am wondering - since there was also a swap between two uninhabited systems at Indra last week in similar circumstances, and Oya skipped HIP 38225 in favour of Orong and Benanekpeno - if there's also a slight prioritisation of advancing towards the bubble rather than towards open space been added too. There don't appear to be any likely tests of this coming up this week, though.

Great work on getting the live calculations up - that should be a lot less to do during the week.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 21, 2023

Prediction changes as a result of recaptures: (Leigong edited due to further recaptures)
Taranis: minor changes in detail only, no change to predicted targets

Leigong:

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Arietis Sector YU-P b5-0	25.203	1	1	Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2;	No	0.5
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-12	27.424	1	1	Arietis Sector KM-W d1-93;	No	0.9
Arietis Sector EW-N b6-2	28.339	1	1	Arietis Sector EW-N b6-1;	No	0.8
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-3	38.317	2	2	HIP 6380; HIP 6869;	No	0.5
Hyades Sector KX-U d2-49	40.890	1	1	HIP 5685;	No	0.3
HIP 5207	41.309	1	1	Col 285 Sector DG-O c6-16;	No	0
HIP 5662	41.411	1	1	HIP 6001;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector GM-C b13-2	41.624	1	1	Hyades Sector MT-I b9-1;	No	-0.1
Ceti Sector DB-X b1-4	48.059	1	1	HIP 6679 (9.904 LY);	No	0.7
Ceti Sector DB-X b1-0	49.490	1	1	Ceti Sector DB-X b1-2;	No	0.7

No further targets possible
Substantial reduction of the target list and several changes in the top 5

Indra: no changes, even if HIP 20056 was completed there'd only be minor implications

Oya:

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Luggerates	21.962	1	1	Sambaho;	Yes	0.3
Aowicha	23.769	1	1	Daruwach;	Yes	-0.3
Poqomathi	24.136	3	3	Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1; HIP 8525; HIP 7338 (10.020 LY);	Yes	0.6
Gliese 3050	25.579	2	2	HIP 8525; HIP 7338;	No	0.6
Cephei Sector HW-W b1-5	28.306	1	1	BD+77 84;	No	0.9
Nawad	29.018	1	1	Cephei Sector AF-A c21;	Yes	0.7

No further targets possible
Target list trimmed considerably, possibility of jump to Nawad

Cocijo: substantial number of recaptures but it doesn't change the targeting list. Chibis isn't critical to this week's attacks either.

Thor:

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Unktety	25.357	1	1	HIP 19198;	Yes	1

No further targets possible
The pushback continues

Raijin:

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 116360	20.902	2	2	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71;	Yes	-0.5
Holvandalla	21.476	10	10	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc	Yes	0.6
Isla	23.900	5	5	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2 (9.952 LY); HIP 116542; Wanmi; etc	Yes	-0.1
Koko Oh	27.066	12	12	HIP 113535; Vistnero; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; etc	Yes	0.6
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-104	27.209	1	1	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6;	No	-0.7
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-3	27.266	4	4	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4; etc	No	0.9
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1	27.392	6	6	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; Ixbaksha; etc	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1	27.419	11	11	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No	-0.3
Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2	27.462	1	1	HIP 113076;	No	1
Pegasi Sector JS-Q a6-2	27.531	7	7	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; etc	No	0.4
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-1	27.547	6	6	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; etc	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25	27.616	2	2	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4 (9.980 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	No	0.1
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0	27.670	5	5	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2; etc	No	0.6
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-1	27.817	11	11	Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No	0.3

85 additional targets not listed, 99 total
Kuruma is safe, minor changes to the details but not the order as a result elsewhere

Hadad:

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 29596	18.225	2	2	Montioch; HR 2204;	Yes	0.8
Muruidooges	18.367	3	3	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY); Omumba; HR 2204;	Yes	0.6
Fotlandjera	19.687	1	1	Omumba;	Yes	0.2
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2	22.853	3	3	Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4;	No	0.3

No further targets possible
Again, substantially trimmed back.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 22, 2023

Prediction accuracy - after accounting for the late Leigong recaptures - 100% on priority order at all Maelstroms.
Expected number of Alerts at 7 of the 8; Oya again skips placing its fifth Alert for unclear reasons.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 22, 2023

Narwhal Nose report generated 22 June

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; these can still attack but are strategically interesting.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis
Read 118 control systems and 872 targets.
Total connected: 113
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
HIP 25670	15.28147367
Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1	18.60194147
Matshiru	19.81269716
Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5	25.77177856
Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6	26.91604787

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
63 Eridani	19.562	1	1	Hyades Sector PN-T c3-9;	Yes	-0.3
Senocidi	20.264	3	3	Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8; HIP 24076; Hyades Sector LH-V c2-6;	Yes	-0.4
Nihal	21.441	4	4	Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1; Matshiru; Hyades Sector KH-L b8-0; etc	Yes	0.4
HIP 26688	21.936	3	3	Matshiru; Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5; Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6;	Yes	0.4
Awara	21.997	4	4	Hyades Sector EB-N b7-0; HIP 23593; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-86; etc	Yes	0.4
Hyades Sector AV-O b6-5	23.975	2	2	Hyades Sector AV-O b6-4; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-76;	Yes	-0.1
HIP 21991	25.786	1	1	Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-5 (9.904 LY);	Yes	0.4
Paeni	26.728	3	3	29 e Orionis; Trianguli Sector ZJ-A b1; Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-0;	Yes	0.3
Ge	27.683	4	4	Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14; Haushu; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; etc	Yes	0.2
HIP 26926	28.170	3	3	Haushu; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-2;	Yes	0.3
Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-1	28.922	2	2	Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5; Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6;	No	0.6
Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-3	28.969	2	2	Trianguli Sector ZJ-A b1; Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-0;	Yes	0.2
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-5	29.058	2	2	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-3; Hyades Sector EG-N b7-4;	No	0.3
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-4	29.072	3	3	Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-4;	No	-0.9

27 additional targets not listed, 41 total
Lots of high-connectivity inhabited systems at the top of the list. Some scope - though probably not in a single week - for retaking the disconnected Matshiru cluster.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 151 control systems and 843 targets.
Total connected: 143
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
HIP 10056	21.76223165
Hyades Sector LN-K b8-3	25.22509988
Hyades Sector LN-K b8-4	25.70606461
Hyades Sector LN-K b8-2	26.37692529
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-2	29.48322815
Arietis Sector VO-R b4-1	33.13603884
Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1	34.62892013
Arietis Sector VO-R b4-4	36.02875642

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-3	17.214	1	1	Arietis Sector FG-Y d66;	No	0.4
Pathamon	22.064	6	6	HIP 7277; Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56; Arietis Sector MX-U c2-17; etc	Yes	0.5
HIP 10616	28.360	2	2	Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-2; Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1;	No	0.7
Wolf 121	28.917	4	4	HIP 10056; Hyades Sector LN-K b8-3; Hyades Sector LN-K b8-4; etc	Yes	0.5
HIP 11134	28.928	1	1	HIP 11137;	No	0.2
Arietis Sector YJ-R b4-3	35.374	1	1	Arietis Sector CQ-P b5-1;	No	0.6
HIP 5207	41.309	1	1	Col 285 Sector DG-O c6-16;	No	0
HIP 5662	41.411	1	1	HIP 6001;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector GM-C b13-2	41.624	1	1	Hyades Sector MT-I b9-1;	No	-0.1
Ceti Sector DB-X b1-4	48.059	1	1	HIP 6679 (9.904 LY);	No	0.7
Ceti Sector DB-X b1-0	49.490	1	1	Ceti Sector DB-X b1-2;	No	0.7

No further targets possible
A fairly short list here, and a couple of disconnected branches in the top 5 attackers.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 155 control systems and 840 targets.
Total connected: 155

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 19157	21.650	1	1	Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4;	Yes	-0.6
HIP 20527	22.540	20	20	Hyadum I; HIP 20397; 86 Rho Tauri; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20491	23.341	8	8	HIP 19934 (10.022 LY); HIP 20480; HIP 20712; etc	Yes	0.4
HIP 19757	24.520	4	4	HIP 20419; Scythia; Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2; etc	Yes	0.1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.286	7	7	HIP 20480 (9.966 LY); HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; etc	No	0.6
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18	26.589	4	4	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4; Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9; etc	Yes	-0.4
HIP 20850	26.986	14	14	77 Theta-1 Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 21474	27.124	12	12	86 Rho Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	1
48 Tauri	27.453	14	14	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; HR 1358; etc	Yes	1
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3	27.512	4	4	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0 (9.980 LY); Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4; Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17; etc	No	-1
HIP 21317	27.515	12	12	HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 20948; etc	No	1
Hyades Sector VK-L a9-0	27.650	6	6	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-4; Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0; HIP 21788; etc	No	-0.3
HIP 20826	27.682	6	6	79 b Tauri; HR 1358; HIP 20616; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20719	27.717	13	13	Hyadum II; 58 Tauri; 55 Tauri; etc	Yes	1

70 additional targets not listed, 84 total
Given changes in behaviour in previous weeks, Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2 is not high confidence - a skip ahead to DQ-Y c18 or perhaps more likely HIP 20850 is very possible.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 41 control systems and 951 targets.
Total connected: 31
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Chernobo	15.57607967
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2	15.98888774
Tougeir	16.22455941
Liu Huang	17.75687587
Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-2	18.02935432
Akbakara	18.17006789
HIP 24329	18.93453463
Muchihiks	19.56140173
HIP 8825	19.96312519
Lyncis Sector TZ-P b5-1	20.5449916

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2	22.149	1	1	HIP 7338 (9.988 LY);	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector HD-G b12-1	22.753	1	1	Cephei Sector WO-A b4;	No	-0.9
Muncheim	23.557	1	1	Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1;	Yes	0.7
Cephei Sector HW-W b1-5	28.306	1	1	BD+77 84;	No	0.9
Nawad	29.018	1	1	Cephei Sector AF-A c21;	Yes	0.7

No further targets possible
Starting the week with just five targets, and more importantly with only five perimeter controls available to attack at all, a zero-Alert week isn't impossible here. Oya has only placed four Alerts twice in a row so it might not hit all five even if left completely alone ... not that this is likely!

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 196 control systems and 795 targets.
Total connected: 195
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-3	27.87528027

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Canaharvas	23.548	9	9	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Mapon; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; etc	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1	26.329	1	1	HR 3048;	No	0.9
Asletae	28.536	3	3	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0; Picenile; Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-7;	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-0	29.280	1	1	Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-3;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2	30.067	1	1	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0;	No	0.7
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16	30.965	3	3	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-8	30.992	1	1	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8;	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-5	31.260	2	2	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	3	3	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5	31.444	2	2	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4	31.529	4	4	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; etc	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11	31.563	5	5	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10; etc	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-23	31.584	4	4	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25; etc	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1	31.586	2	2	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-0	31.614	1	1	HIP 35633;	No	0.3

54 additional targets not listed, 69 total
Most of the perimeter is uninhabited, so skipping some of it isn't all that likely - though if recaptures move it onto reserves, AF-P c6-16 is a possible skipover.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 126 control systems and 872 targets.
Total connected: 110
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Rajuarpai	11.4695589
Chanyaya	16.10879151
HIP 19894	16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14	17.71585625
HIP 20024	19.46077284
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0	21.77609336
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1	21.81126877
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0	22.79575584
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1	23.95464872
HIP 18857	24.61621433
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5	24.84190245
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2	25.94627111
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3	26.05759096
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-4	30.23485545
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-5	31.49809332
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-3	31.52685177

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-0	43.361	2	2	HIP 20807; Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-75;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector DZ-H b10-1	46.446	2	2	Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-2; Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-4;	No	0.2
Hyades Sector KB-O b6-2	48.155	1	1	Col 285 Sector FU-H b10-4;	No	0.2

No further targets possible
Thor starts the week with only four usable perimeter Controls, all in or near the outer FU-H b10 subsector. A complete Alert lockdown is very possible.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 168 control systems and 825 targets.
Total connected: 168

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Nu Guang	19.330	1	1	Snoqui;	Yes	0.9
Bormuninus	24.356	4	4	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0; etc	Yes	-0.3
Pegasi Sector GW-V b2-3	25.918	2	2	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6 (9.914 LY); Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71;	No	-0.6
Jawul	26.675	2	2	Chinas; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	Yes	0.2
Ngolite	26.894	8	8	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; HIP 112595; etc	Yes	0.8
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-3	26.974	10	10	Chakma; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No	0.2
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-3	27.266	4	4	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4; etc	No	0.9
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d101	27.269	1	1	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4;	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1	27.392	7	7	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; etc	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1	27.419	11	11	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No	-0.3
Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2	27.462	1	1	HIP 113076;	No	1
Pegasi Sector JS-Q a6-2	27.531	7	7	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; etc	No	0.4
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-1	27.547	6	6	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; etc	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25	27.616	2	2	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4 (9.980 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	No	0.1
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0	27.670	5	5	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2; etc	No	0.6

84 additional targets not listed, 99 total
It wouldn't be too surprising for GW-V b2-3 to be skipped in favour of a forward-facing inhabited system.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 83 control systems and 912 targets.
Total connected: 82
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-4	26.61885566

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3	22.024	1	1	HR 2204 (9.988 LY);	No	0.9
Yan Zangata	22.385	1	1	Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-10;	Yes	1
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-5	26.055	1	1	Vasupari (9.991 LY);	No	0.8
Col 285 Sector XN-Z b14-1	27.100	1	1	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-16;	No	-0.8
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-3	29.675	2	2	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4; Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-4;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-10	29.779	1	1	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-6;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector PR-B b14-1	30.811	1	1	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6 (9.990 LY);	No	-0.3

No further targets possible
Hadad not quite as bad as Thor or Oya yet, but not doing well either.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Taranis
Trianguli Sector BA-A d85:1
HIP 25670:1
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4:1
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-87:1
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-81:1
-- Leigong
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2:1
Arietis Sector KM-W d1-93:1
Arietis Sector EW-N b6-1:1
HIP 6380:1
HIP 5685:1
-- Indra
64 Tauri:1
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3:1
71 Tauri:1
HIP 20916:1
HIP 20577:1
-- Oya
Sambaho:1
Daruwach:1
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1:1
HIP 8525:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4:1
-- Thor
HIP 19198:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10:1
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2:1
HIP 113535:1
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6:1
-- Hadad
Montioch:1
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2:1
Omumba:1
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1:1

Aleks Zuno · Jun 26, 2023

Just hypothetically, if one were to start collapsing the targeting at M. Taranis, would it be the case that puncturing Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1 would make Matshiru attack Nihal and leave only Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5 and Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6 able to attack HIP 26688?

I am looking at a few options for the remainder of the week after a little more trimming at M. Leigong, and I think that doing the above would make it actually possible to adjust M. Taranis so that its only inhabited attacks are Nihal, Awara and Paeni. That would be a quite heavy sprint though; if visited, it is more likely that we could just deny it Senocidi and a couple of the more easily-guarded systems. Visiting it at all also competes a bit with deflating M. Cocijo a bit, or keeping the possible harvest opportunities open for helping where other Commanders have made partial progress!

Ian Doncaster · Jun 26, 2023

Aleks Zuno said:
Just hypothetically, if one were to start collapsing the targeting at M. Taranis, would it be the case that puncturing Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1 would make Matshiru attack Nihal and leave only Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5 and Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6 able to attack HIP 26688?

That looks right, I think.

Aleks Zuno said:
I am looking at a few options for the remainder of the week after a little more trimming at M. Leigong, and I think that doing the above would make it actually possible to adjust M. Taranis so that its only inhabited attacks are Nihal, Awara and Paeni. That would be a quite heavy sprint though; if visited, it is more likely that we could just deny it Senocidi and a couple of the more easily-guarded systems. Visiting it at all also competes a bit with deflating M. Cocijo a bit, or keeping the possible harvest opportunities open for helping where other Commanders have made partial progress!

Definitely a tough challenge, given how long Taranis has been given a big fight on inhabited targets and free reign on uninhabited ones, the two shells are quite substantially different in distance now.

Aleks Zuno · Jun 26, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
Definitely a tough challenge, given how long Taranis has been given a big fight on inhabited targets and free reign on uninhabited ones, the two shells are quite substantially different in distance now.

It was just about within capability, but either way it sounds as if it would be better now to tour those four Maelstroms which are not yet facing a designed catastrophe and give them just a few gaps in their unpopulated volume, so that those will start taking the place of better targets four weeks later when the real manipulation can begin.

Causing also a few reductions to attack strength is quite nice; something not captured in the reports, at risk of flooding them a bit of course, is how the recently-evicted Hyades Sector PN-T c3-9 was a 26.38 Ly unpopulated system back-attacking the 19.56 Ly inhabited 63 Eridani. Unlike most of those others, that was a particularly-if-not-uniquely gross attacker if allowed to stand, with over an order of magnitude strength difference!

Ian Doncaster · Jun 28, 2023

Prediction updates (preliminary, as I expect there's still a few recaptures left). Testing a new feature for the tables - backwards attack potentials are underlined on the system list.

Taranis

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Nihal	21.441	4	4	Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1; Matshiru; Hyades Sector KH-L b8-0; etc	Yes	0.4
HIP 26688	21.936	3	3	Matshiru; Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5; Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6;	Yes	0.4
Awara	21.997	3	3	Hyades Sector EB-N b7-0; HIP 23593; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-86;	Yes	0.4
HIP 21991	25.786	1	1	Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-5 (9.904 LY);	Yes	0.4
Paeni	26.728	3	3	29 e Orionis; Trianguli Sector ZJ-A b1; Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-0;	Yes	0.3
Ge	27.683	4	4	Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14; Haushu; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; etc	Yes	0.2
HIP 26926	28.170	3	3	Haushu; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-2;	Yes	0.3
Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-1	28.922	2	2	Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5; Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6;	No	0.6
Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-3	28.969	2	2	Trianguli Sector ZJ-A b1; Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-0;	Yes	0.2
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-5	29.058	2	2	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-3; Hyades Sector EG-N b7-4;	No	0.3
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-4	29.072	3	3	Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-4;	No	-0.9
Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-4	29.264	2	2	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-82; Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-3;	No	-0.5
Hyades Sector VT-Q b5-2	29.268	1	1	Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-3;	No	-0.4
Nareg	29.541	1	1	HIP 25840;	Yes	0.8
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-6	29.818	2	2	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-2 (10.015 LY); Vogulmangoi;	No	0.2

Still five inhabited systems at the top, but quite a few changes as to which five

Leigong

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Pathamon	22.064	6	6	HIP 7277; Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56; Arietis Sector MX-U c2-17; etc	Yes	0.5

And that's the lot

Indra
There has been a recapture, but no changes as Indra is very tightly connected

Oya

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2	22.149	1	1	HIP 7338 (9.988 LY);	No	0.5

Again, just the one target left

Cocijo
Recapture does not affect prediction

Thor
All Alert targets at Thor eliminated!

Raijin
Quite a few recaptures but they're on the outside so don't affect its short-term plans

Hadad

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3	22.024	1	1	HR 2204 (9.988 LY);	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-5	26.055	1	1	Vasupari (9.991 LY);	No	0.8

Down to just two targets

Ian Doncaster · Jun 29, 2023

Accuracy result:
- Taranis: 100%
- Leigong: 100%
- Indra: 100%
- Oya: 0% (0 of 1). HIP 7338 attacked the inhabited HIP 2422 rather than the uninhabited Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2 (it could also have gone for the closer-to-the-Maelstrom inhabited Muncheim, but didn't)
- Cocijo: some late recaptures after the last update. These moved targeting as expected, 100% when using the final recapture list.
- Thor: NaN% (correctly predicted)
- Raijin: 100%
- Hadad: 100%

So just one miss this week, as Oya picks a more distant inhabited target for its one usable Control.

I'll see if I can update the prediction tables to show this sort of alternate targeting a bit better.

CMDR Vulkarius · Jun 29, 2023

I was just checking for possible attackers set wrongly but I think HIP 7338 could be right as the attacker.
The cycle 28 attack sort of isolate it so any problems can't be that far back.
In cycle 29 if Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1 was somehow unavailable then HIP 8525 hits Poqomathi and HIP 7338 hits Gliese 3050 to put it on time-out, but I don't think there was anything else which could have hit HIP 2422 now.

It's probably your idea of inhabited being considered closer or higher priority.
Then again, not attacking Muncheim seems too weird - are we sure there wasn't some way that HIP 8525 could have been the attacker?
Both Muncheim and HIP 2422 fit the priority change which skipped Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2, and HIP 8525 can see HIP 2422 but not Muncheim...

Ian Doncaster · Jun 29, 2023

If last time HIP 8525 rather than HIP 7338 hit Gliese 3050, that would work - but then we'd instead need a reason that happened given that "use the closest control to the maelstrom" has worked so consistently otherwise for months.

That could also have happened of course if HIP 7338 had hit a target the week before ... the catch there is that I had both 7338 and 8525 marked as offline that week, because they'd have been the obvious places to launch the attacks on DQ-Y b2 and Muncheim which did happen.

A rule like "if the selected control for an uninhabited target can see inhabited targets, attack the furthest of those instead" is possible.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 29, 2023

Narwhal Nose report generated 29 June

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis
Read 112 control systems and 883 targets.
Total connected: 107
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
HIP 25670	15.28147367
Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1	18.60194147
Matshiru	19.81269716
Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5	25.77177856
Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6	26.91604787

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Senocidi	20.264	1	1	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-87;	Yes	-0.4
Trianguli Sector GG-Y c18	26.113	1	1	Trianguli Sector CA-A c14;	Yes	1
Namayu	27.095	2	2	Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b5; Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b4;	Yes	0.5
Ge	27.683	5	5	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-81; Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14; Haushu; etc	Yes	0.2
HIP 26926	28.170	4	4	Hyades Sector NS-T c3-14; Haushu; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; etc	Yes	0.3
Pentam	28.873	5	5	Haushu; Hyades Sector NS-T c3-12; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; etc	Yes	0.3
Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-1	28.922	2	2	Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5; Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6;	No	0.6
Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-3	28.969	2	2	Trianguli Sector ZJ-A b1; Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-0;	Yes	0.2
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-5	29.058	2	2	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-3; Hyades Sector EG-N b7-4;	No	0.3
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-4	29.072	3	3	Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-4;	No	-0.9
Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-4	29.264	2	2	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-82; Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-3;	No	-0.5
Hyades Sector VT-Q b5-2	29.268	1	1	Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-3;	No	-0.4
Nareg	29.541	1	1	HIP 25840;	Yes	0.8
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-6	29.818	2	2	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-2 (10.015 LY); Vogulmangoi;	No	0.2
Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-7	29.984	2	2	Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-1; Hyades Sector ZZ-O b6-2;	No	0.2

26 additional targets not listed, 41 total
6 inhabited targets in the top 6 so this should be fairly reliable as a starter prediction.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 136 control systems and 863 targets.
Total connected: 132
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2	23.62518601
HR 457	27.84494245
Arietis Sector VO-R b4-1	33.13603884
Arietis Sector VO-R b4-4	36.02875642

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-3	17.214	1	1	Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2;	No	0.4
Baudani	24.964	1	0.2	~~Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2;~~	Yes	0.5
Arietis Sector JM-W d1-57	28.843	1	1	Arietis Sector EW-N b6-1;	No	0.9
Arietis Sector WO-R b4-4	35.680	1	1	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-4 (9.937 LY);	No	0.6
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-4	37.587	1	1	HIP 6380;	No	0.5
Hyades Sector LY-I b9-3	42.599	1	1	HIP 5685;	No	0.6

No further targets possible
Here's the first demo of the new formatting. AQ-P b5-2 could launch a backwards attack (underlined) on b5-3. But it's also the only one targeting the inhabited Baudani so it gets a secondary entry for that with much lower confidence and a strikethrough in the attacker list.

Even if not interfered with further, only one of the top two can happen, of course.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 154 control systems and 838 targets.
Total connected: 154

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 20485	21.436	24	24	63 Tauri; 64 Tauri; 71 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
HR 1403	24.664	9	9	HR 1354 (9.991 LY); HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; etc	Yes	0.9
65 Kappa Tauri	25.424	6	6	HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc	Yes	0.8
69 Upsilon Tauri	26.471	5	5	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; HIP 21008; etc	Yes	0.8
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18	26.589	4	4	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4; Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9; etc	Yes	-0.4
HIP 21380	26.610	5	5	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1 (9.994 LY); HIP 21008; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; etc	Yes	0.8
HIP 20850	26.986	14	14	77 Theta-1 Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 21474	27.124	11	11	86 Rho Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	1
48 Tauri	27.453	14	14	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; HR 1358; etc	Yes	1
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3	27.512	4	4	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0 (9.980 LY); Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4; Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17; etc	No	-1
HIP 21317	27.515	11	11	HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 20741; etc	No	1
Hyades Sector VK-L a9-0	27.650	6	6	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-4; Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0; HIP 21788; etc	No	-0.3
HIP 20826	27.682	6	6	79 b Tauri; HR 1358; HIP 20616; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20719	27.717	14	13.2	HIP 20577 (9.953 LY); Hyadum II; ~~HIP 20815;~~ etc	Yes	1

83 additional targets not listed, 97 total
Indra continues with a lot of strongly-connected inhabited systems at the top of the list. Likely to all go through.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 33 control systems and 962 targets.
Total connected: 26
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Chernobo	15.57607967
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2	15.98888774
Tougeir	16.22455941
Liu Huang	17.75687587
Akbakara	18.17006789
HIP 24329	18.93453463
Muchihiks	19.56140173

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector ZZ-Y b3	14.941	1	1	Chernobo;	No	-0.2
HIP 4041	18.528	2	2	Ardhri (9.927 LY); Sambaho;	No	0.3
HIP 3006	18.930	2	2	Sambaho; Daruwach;	No	0.2
Lahua	19.363	2	2	Tougeir; Muchihiks;	Yes	0.9
Cephei Sector ZE-A c8	19.896	2	2	HIP 10778; Daruwach;	No	-0.4
Gliese 9035	20.494	2	1.2	~~HIP 10778;~~ Daruwach;	Yes	-0.5
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2	22.149	1	1	HIP 8525;	No	0.5

No further targets possible
HIP 10778 could choose to jump forward to Gliese 9035, though if anything above that is blocked, Daruwach just skips back to ZE-A to complete the five.
I've assumed previous calculations were good and HIP 8525 is the active one of the 8525/7338 pair - if it's actually 8525 used this week so 7338 is ready for next week, then Muncheim is a possible fallback for DQ-Y b2.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 190 control systems and 803 targets.
Total connected: 190

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Khwal	21.530	7	7	Mapon; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; etc	Yes	1
Hez Ur	22.001	1	1	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5;	Yes	0.7
Desurinbin	25.105	10	10	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; etc	Yes	0.2
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2	25.947	3	3	Kurumanit; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; 19 Puppis;	Yes	0.4
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1	26.329	2	2	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5	26.491	1	0.2	~~Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6;~~	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-5	31.260	2	2	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	4	4	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; etc	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5	31.444	2	2	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4	31.529	4	4	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; etc	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11	31.563	2	2	Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-23	31.584	4	4	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25; etc	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1	31.586	2	2	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-0	31.614	1	1	HIP 35633;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-2	31.711	1	1	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-22	31.756	4	4	Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4; etc	No	-0.9

52 additional targets not listed, 68 total
Chance for YT-F b12-6 to skip ahead and attack a fifth inhabited system.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 117 control systems and 881 targets.
Total connected: 98
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Rajuarpai	11.4695589
Chanyaya	16.10879151
HIP 19894	16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14	17.71585625
HIP 20024	19.46077284
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0	21.77609336
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1	21.81126877
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0	22.79575584
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1	23.95464872
HIP 18857	24.61621433
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5	24.84190245
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2	25.94627111
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3	26.05759096
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-4	30.23485545
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-5	31.49809332
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-3	31.52685177
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2	32.45495677
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2	35.8304111
Col 285 Sector GF-G b11-5	36.82861224

Thor's connectivity is an increasing mess.

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4	22.217	3	3	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-1;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3	24.094	1	1	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3	26.122	3	3	Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8; Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1	27.471	1	1	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-1;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-0	27.801	1	1	HIP 20509;	No	0.8
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14	28.185	3	3	Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0; Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5; Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13	31.072	1	1	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5;	No	0.5
Almar	31.784	1	1	Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3;	Yes	0.3
Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89	32.772	1	1	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-5;	No	0.3
Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1	35.769	4	4	HIP 20489; Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2; Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-2; etc	No	0.6

No further targets possible
A lot of the systems cleared in previous counter-attacks on Thor have now come round for targeting again as it attempts to regain the lost ground. Unlikely in the default case to get as far as Almar.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 160 control systems and 831 targets.
Total connected: 160

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0	26.940	1	1	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4;	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-3	26.974	10	10	Chakma; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No	0.2
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-1	27.013	3	3	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4;	No	0.9
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-0	27.186	6	6	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Gl 886.1 B; etc	No	-0.4
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-3	27.266	2	2	Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-4;	No	0.9
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3	27.329	5	5	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; HIP 113535; HIP 112595; etc	No	0.8
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1	27.392	6	6	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; Ixbaksha; etc	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1	27.419	11	11	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No	-0.3
Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2	27.462	1	1	HIP 113076;	No	1
Pegasi Sector JS-Q a6-2	27.531	7	7	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; etc	No	0.4
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-1	27.547	6	6	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; etc	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25	27.616	2	2	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4 (9.980 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	No	0.1
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0	27.670	5	5	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2; etc	No	0.6
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-1	27.817	10	10	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2; etc	No	0.3

82 additional targets not listed, 96 total
An unusually uninhabited week at Raijin, but no obvious reason to expect anything other than the top 5 yet.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 77 control systems and 919 targets.
Total connected: 76
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3	24.11759116

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Bi Dhorora	18.466	3	3	Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Montioch; Omumba;	Yes	0.3
Vogulu	20.728	3	3	Montioch; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-1	23.453	3	3	Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1 (9.970 LY); Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4;	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-1	23.593	3	3	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-2; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-0;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-8	25.273	3	3	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9;	No	-0
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-6	26.018	2	2	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-4; Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9;	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-24	26.682	2	2	Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-0; Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-5;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-0	26.730	2	2	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-31; Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-3;	No	0.2
HIP 32718	27.177	1	1	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-29;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-7	27.907	1	1	Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-9;	No	-0.2
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-79	29.740	2	2	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-8 (9.951 LY); Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-0;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-80	30.573	1	1	Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-0;	No	-0.9

No further targets possible
As with Thor, a lot of systems cleared 4 weeks ago are now back on the target list.

Code:

-- exhausts below, recaptures above
-- Taranis
Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1:1
Matshiru:1
Hyades Sector EB-N b7-0:1
Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-5:1
Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1:1
-- Leigong
HIP 7277:1
-- Indra
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4:1
Hyadum I:1
HIP 19934:1
HIP 20419:1
HIP 20480:1
-- Oya
HIP 7338:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8:1
-- Thor
-- Raijin
Snoqui:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2:1
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6:1
Chinas:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8:1
-- Hadad
HR 2204:1
Vasupari:1

CMDR Vulkarius · Jun 29, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
A rule like "if the selected control for an uninhabited target can see inhabited targets, attack the furthest of those instead" is possible.

Taking a look at earlier - that rule fits the cycle 30 attack just now but doesn't explain targets skipped before.
Possible rules from before (inhabited lowers distance etc) also don't explain why some targets weren't skipped now!

So the cycle 27 Oya attacks skipped some unpopulated targets to hit Orong and Benanekpeno, but the attackers skipped can't have retargeted because they are 20-40 LY away from the attacks.
Even more strange is how they skipped HIP 38225 (inhabited+starport) to do it, similar to cycle 28 Indra skipping Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18 (inhabited planetary only).
Those Indra attackers also can't see HIP 21380 which was chosen instead - most or all previous cases were totally different attackers rather than one rogue attacker breaking the thargoid SOP.
Not to say HIP 7338 can't be the first to think like that, but it's either that or some other rule where their new plan coincidentally also used HIP 7338 to attack, or maybe they run it through GPT for suggestions.

If we're skipping stuff, the earlier ideas don't explain why Indra failed to skip Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2 just now.
A lot of simple rule ideas (eg. inhabited lowers distance) also fail to explain why Cocijo didn't reach all the way down to attack Na Zha (last on our list).

Also I'm guessing we're leaving Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2 around to see if it hits Baudani

Ian Doncaster · Jun 29, 2023

CMDR Vulkarius said:
Taking a look at earlier - that rule fits the cycle 30 attack just now but doesn't explain targets skipped before.

No, I've come to much the same conclusion - accounting for any combination of distance, habitation and direction towards Sol, I can't make a rule that picks all the further out targets they did without also picking targets they didn't. This is the first time the skipped system has been by the same Control, too, which does suggest it's about changes to the target sort rather than the behaviour of the Controls themselves.

So I'd guess there's some other parameter that's important, but I can't think what yet.

So far we've only seen this at Oya and Indra, but those are extremely different environments ... so why not anywhere else?

CMDR Vulkarius said:
Also I'm guessing we're leaving Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2 around to see if it hits Baudani

Similarly Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6 at Cocijo, if you want to leave test options open.

CMDR Vulkarius · Jun 30, 2023

Finagling in some offline test rules myself for skipping an unpop + further inhabs shows up some interesting attack options earlier

Cycle 30 Oya before-

Cycle 30 Oya with skipping an unpop-

When HIP 7338 can skip and hit Muncheim, pushing FBX into 2nd also brought HIP 2422 into play, but cancelled because FBX was already purged, so it needs to know it can skip some more.
Also looks like BD+77 84 totally could have hit 47 Cassiopeiae

Cycle 30 Oya hitting multiple after skipping an unpop-

Pushed FBX into 2nd AGAIN at HIP 2422, so in a sense Gliese 9843 could've been in play as well, but it sort of misses the fact that it can't push FBX into 2nd in 2 places so hitting HIP 2422 would put FBX 1st at Muncheim again.
Need to think of a clear way to show that cascade while also not showing 3 targets.

Cycle 31 (that's now) Leigong check with those rules-

Got Baudani, but also got YUP though - not actually sure if we've had that happen "normally" (ie. not chaos at Thor).
Unless it's happened, I can't see it missing an unpop to hit a weaker unpop.

Cycle 31 Leigong with only the first unpop target-

That case matches now but I'll check through all retro effects of that later in case that rule would have messed anything up.
It's probably fine if all it does is add possibilities and we'll see if it flags up a load of questions about why they didn't attack better systems.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 30, 2023

CMDR Vulkarius said:
Unless it's happened, I can't see it missing an unpop to hit a weaker unpop.

Once at Indra, w/c 8 June. Skips Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3 (unpopulated, 27.512) to hit HIP 21317 (unpopulated, 27.515)

That's one of the cases that meant I considered direction as a possible parameter - LC-U is almost directly backwards, HIP is almost directly forwards.