Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

CMDR Vulkarius · Jun 30, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
Once at Indra, w/c 8 June. Skips Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3 (unpopulated, 27.512) to hit HIP 21317 (unpopulated, 27.515)

That's one of the cases that meant I considered direction as a possible parameter - LC-U is almost directly backwards, HIP is almost directly forwards.

Does that make YU-P something the Narwhal needs to sniff out, or was it told to pass on unpops after finding an inhab like Baudani?
Even with that rule, I'd have thought there would be more cases not involving inhabs, but haven't checked yet.

Also I looked up the coords for that Indra case, looks like we had (Hyades) NN-S to hit LC-U skipped for 77 Theta-1 Tauri to hit HIP 21317.
The NN-S/LC-U definitely has some fringe properties to it - the jump is 9.9798 LY and it retreats Sol by 7.6 LY, vs. Theta-1/21317 jumping 7.3 LY and approaching Sol by 6.1 LY.
The jump or retreat don't give much help explaining why HIP 7338 hits HIP 2422 instead of Muncheim though - the jump is 8.2 vs 8.7 in favour of HIP 2422, but the advance is 1.17 vs. -2.62 in favour of Muncheim.

Although now that I look at it, if we shelve the target question and look at what was skipped, the NN-S/LC-U jump is 9.9798 LY and the 7338/DQ-Y jump is 9.9878 LY......
Shouldn't be impossible, but it looks a bit like they were low on fuel or something, as if they have to scoop fuel each week before attacking and only had 8.5 LY this week.
The only other guess I have for now is if the distance check is something cheap like the delta X+Y+Z < 15, but that should cause a ton of wrong predictions earlier and doesn't explain Muncheim.
(This is super interesting in ways it shouldn't be

)

Ian Doncaster · Jun 30, 2023

CMDR Vulkarius said:
Does that make YU-P something the Narwhal needs to sniff out, or was it told to pass on unpops after finding an inhab like Baudani?

I'm currently assuming - since I haven't seen a counter-case yet - that it won't skip unpopulated for another unpopulated if there's an intervening populated on the list.
And at the moment, I'm not trying to model cases like the Indra one where it skips unpopulated for unpopulated at all (though it'd have to be a same-control one - unlike the Indra cases - for it to be a complete surprise rather than just taking line 6 instead of line 5, of course)

As we get a bit more data I expect that will need changing.

(I also wonder if this skipover is related to the 4 Alert weeks: are those weeks where the condition to start a skipover is met, but for some reason it fails due to lack of targets? Are they two different things or two aspects of the same behaviour? We don't have a good model for those either... of course, Indra is about the last place to expect a 4 Alert week but has had two successful skipovers, so maybe they are unrelated)

Ian Doncaster · Jul 5, 2023

Narwhal Nose report generated 5 July

Updated prediction for recaptures (Taranis prediction further updated for final recaptures)

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

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Calculating Taranis
After recaptures, read 105 control systems (112 originally) and 883 targets.
Total connected: 100
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
HIP 25670	15.28147367
Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1	18.60194147
Matshiru	19.81269716
Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5	25.77177856
Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6	26.91604787

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Senocidi	20.264	1	1	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-87;	Yes	-0.4
Trianguli Sector GG-Y c18	26.113	1	1	Trianguli Sector CA-A c14;	Yes	1
Namayu	27.095	2	2	Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b5; Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b4;	Yes	0.5
Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-1	28.922	2	2	Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5; Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6;	No	0.6
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-5	29.058	2	2	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-3; Hyades Sector EG-N b7-4;	No	0.3
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-4	29.072	3	3	Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-4;	No	-0.9
Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-4	29.264	2	2	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-82; Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-3;	No	-0.5
Hyades Sector VT-Q b5-2	29.268	1	1	Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-3;	No	-0.4
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-6	29.818	1	1	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-2 (10.015 LY);	No	0.2
Cheditjala	30.197	1	1	Rikbakara;	Yes	-0.2
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-5	30.403	2	2	Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-4;	No	-0.9
Hyades Sector HW-W d1-86	30.468	1	1	Ildano;	No	-0.2
Hyades Sector QN-T c3-21	30.842	2	0.4	~~Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-2;~~	Yes	-0.9
Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-1	31.013	1	1	Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-4;	No	-0.7
Inawyddi	31.065	2	0.4	~~Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-4;~~	Yes	-0.7
Hyades Sector JW-M b7-1	31.116	1	1	Hyades Sector HB-N b7-0;	No	-0.7
Popongo	31.702	2	1.2	~~Hyades Sector HB-N b7-0;~~ Hyades Sector QN-T c3-10;	Yes	-0.7
Cileut	31.814	2	1.2	~~Hyades Sector EG-N b7-3;~~ Hyades Sector EG-N b7-4;	Yes	0

9 additional targets not listed, 27 total
Updated: Recaptures reduce the inhabited targets to 3 of the top 5. Cheditjala is a little under 1 LY further out, which is within precedent for a skip, though we haven't seen one at Taranis yet.

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Calculating Leigong
After recaptures, read 132 control systems (136 originally) and 863 targets.
Total connected: 128
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2	23.62518601
HR 457	27.84494245
Arietis Sector VO-R b4-1	33.13603884
HIP 6869	33.32576249

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-3	17.214	1	1	Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2;	No	0.4
Baudani	24.964	1	0.2	~~Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2;~~	Yes	0.5

No further targets possible
Reduced to the test case only. Baudani is possible as a skip, otherwise AQ-P. Either way, only one Alert should be possible this week.

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Calculating Indra
After recaptures, read 153 control systems (154 originally) and 838 targets.
Total connected: 153

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 20485	21.436	24	24	63 Tauri; 64 Tauri; 71 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
HR 1403	24.664	9	9	HR 1354 (9.991 LY); HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; etc	Yes	0.9
65 Kappa Tauri	25.424	6	6	HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; etc	Yes	0.8
69 Upsilon Tauri	26.471	5	5	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1; HIP 21008; etc	Yes	0.8
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18	26.589	4	4	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4; Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9; etc	Yes	-0.4
HIP 21380	26.610	5	5	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1 (9.994 LY); HIP 21008; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; etc	Yes	0.8
HIP 20850	26.986	13	13	77 Theta-1 Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 21474	27.124	11	11	86 Rho Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	1
48 Tauri	27.453	14	14	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; HR 1358; etc	Yes	1
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3	27.512	4	4	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0 (9.980 LY); Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4; Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17; etc	No	-1
HIP 21317	27.515	10	10	HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 20741; etc	No	1
Hyades Sector VK-L a9-0	27.650	6	6	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-4; Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0; HIP 21788; etc	No	-0.3
HIP 20826	27.682	5	5	79 b Tauri; HR 1358; HIP 20616; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20719	27.717	14	13.2	HIP 20577 (9.953 LY); Hyadum II; ~~HIP 20815;~~ etc	Yes	1

82 additional targets not listed, 96 total
No significant changes to the original prediction

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Calculating Oya
After recaptures, read 31 control systems (33 originally) and 962 targets.
Total connected: 26
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Chernobo	15.57607967
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2	15.98888774
Tougeir	16.22455941
Liu Huang	17.75687587
Akbakara	18.17006789

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector ZZ-Y b3	14.941	1	1	Chernobo;	No	-0.2
HIP 4041	18.528	2	2	Ardhri (9.927 LY); Sambaho;	No	0.3
HIP 3006	18.930	2	2	Sambaho; Daruwach;	No	0.2
Lahua	19.363	1	1	Tougeir;	Yes	0.9
Cephei Sector ZE-A c8	19.896	2	2	HIP 10778; Daruwach;	No	-0.4
Gliese 9035	20.494	2	1.2	~~HIP 10778;~~ Daruwach;	Yes	-0.5
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2	22.149	1	1	HIP 8525;	No	0.5

No further targets possible
Recaptures don't change the target prediction here. As before, ZE-A c8 or Gliese 9035 remains uncertain.

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Calculating Cocijo
After recaptures, read 189 control systems (190 originally) and 803 targets.
Total connected: 189

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Khwal	21.530	7	7	Mapon; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; etc	Yes	1
Hez Ur	22.001	1	1	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5;	Yes	0.7
Desurinbin	25.105	10	10	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; etc	Yes	0.2
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2	25.947	3	3	Kurumanit; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; 19 Puppis;	Yes	0.4
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1	26.329	2	2	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5	26.491	1	0.2	~~Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6;~~	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-5	31.260	1	1	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	4	4	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; etc	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5	31.444	2	2	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4	31.529	4	4	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; etc	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11	31.563	2	2	Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-23	31.584	4	4	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25; etc	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1	31.586	2	2	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-0	31.614	1	1	HIP 35633;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-2	31.711	1	1	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-22	31.756	4	4	Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4; etc	No	-0.9

52 additional targets not listed, 68 total
No significant changes - recaptures affect reserves only

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Calculating Thor
After recaptures, read 107 control systems (117 originally) and 881 targets.
Total connected: 95
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Rajuarpai	11.4695589
Chanyaya	16.10879151
HIP 19894	16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14	17.71585625
HIP 20024	19.46077284
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1	21.81126877
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0	22.79575584
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1	23.95464872
HIP 18857	24.61621433
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2	25.94627111
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-4	30.23485545
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-3	31.52685177

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4	22.217	2	2	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3	24.094	1	1	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3	26.122	2	2	Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-8;	No	0.5

No further targets possible
Down to just three targets, though they should be fairly solid ones.

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Calculating Raijin
After recaptures, read 153 control systems (160 originally) and 831 targets.
Total connected: 152
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Hosan	27.87701436

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Pegasi Sector QZ-M a8-0	26.940	1	1	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4;	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-3	26.974	10	10	Chakma; Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etc	No	0.2
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-1	27.013	2	2	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No	0.9
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-0	27.186	6	6	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Gl 886.1 B; etc	No	-0.4
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-3	27.266	1	1	Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No	0.9
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3	27.329	4	4	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; HIP 113535; HIP 112595; etc	No	0.8
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1	27.392	6	6	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; Ixbaksha; etc	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1	27.419	11	11	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No	-0.3
Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2	27.462	1	1	HIP 113076;	No	1
Pegasi Sector JS-Q a6-2	27.531	7	7	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; etc	No	0.4
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-1	27.547	6	6	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; etc	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25	27.616	1	1	Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	No	0.1
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0	27.670	5	5	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2; etc	No	0.6
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-1	27.817	8	8	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2; etc	No	0.3
Tvasu	27.856	1	0.2	~~HIP 113076;~~	Yes	1
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-3	27.885	7	7	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 (9.926 LY); HIP 115162; Nibelaako; etc	No	-0

74 additional targets not listed, 90 total
No changes to the basic prediction despite several recaptures - but they are starting to break up Raijin's strong connectivity a little, which may reduce its options in future weeks.

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Calculating Hadad
After recaptures, read 66 control systems (77 originally) and 919 targets.
Total connected: 65
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3	24.11759116

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Bi Dhorora	18.466	3	3	Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0; Montioch; Omumba;	Yes	0.3
Vogulu	20.728	3	3	Montioch; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-1	23.453	2	2	Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1 (9.970 LY); Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;	No	0.4

No further targets possible
Hadad should be held to just three Alerts next week

Ian Doncaster · Jul 6, 2023

Accuracy check:

Taranis: 100% (no skips)
Leigong: 100% (1 of 1, didn't go way forward to Baudani)
Indra: 80% (DQ-Y c18 skipped in favour of HIP 21380 - only 0.02 LY further out, also inhabited, inwards rather than outwards direction)
Oya: 80% (Lahua skipped and ZE-A c8 and Gliese 9035 both attacked)
Cocijo: 100%
Thor: 100%
Raijin: 100%
Hadad: 100%

Still having unpredictable behaviour solely at Indra and Oya. Notably, while Leigong wasn't a surprise to go for the much nearer uninhabited, Cocijo didn't skip ahead to AF-E b13-5 in a situation where Oya and Indra surely would have. Further study is definitely needed here!

Ian Doncaster · Jul 6, 2023

Narwhal Nose report generated 6 July

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No change to the model. Research opportunities this week: will Indra skip over DQ-Y c18 again? will Oya go back to Lahua now it has no choice?

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

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Calculating Taranis
Read 102 control systems and 891 targets.
Total connected: 97
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
HIP 25670	15.28147367
Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1	18.60194147
Matshiru	19.81269716
Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5	25.77177856
Trianguli Sector JW-W b1-6	26.91604787

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 25679	17.402	4	4	Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2; HIP 25670; Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1; etc	Yes	0.4
HIP 23716	18.430	5	5	Trianguli Sector BA-A d85; Trianguli Sector CA-A c22; Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4; etc	Yes	0.9
Imeut	19.132	5	5	HIP 25670; Hyades Sector FB-N b7-3; Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1; etc	Yes	0.8
Ebisu	21.049	3	3	Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4; Hyades Sector EB-N b7-0; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-86;	Yes	0.1
Cao Tzu	21.518	1	1	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-86;	Yes	-0
Vukurbeh	24.254	2	2	Trianguli Sector KR-W b1-1; Matshiru;	Yes	0.8
Lubal	25.939	1	1	Trianguli Sector FL-Y b5;	Yes	0.7
Lovaroju	26.925	4	4	Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3 (10.021 LY); Hyades Sector PN-T c3-7; Hyades Sector QN-T c3-11; etc	Yes	-1
HIP 22052	28.506	2	2	Trianguli Sector FG-Y d96; Trianguli Sector JR-W b1-5;	Yes	0.6
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-4	29.072	3	3	Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-4;	No	-0.9
Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-4	29.264	2	2	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-82; Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-3;	No	-0.5
Hyades Sector VT-Q b5-2	29.268	1	1	Hyades Sector XO-Q b5-3;	No	-0.4
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-6	29.818	1	1	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-2 (10.015 LY);	No	0.2
Hyades Sector GW-M b7-5	29.840	1	1	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-88;	No	0.2
Cheditjala	30.197	1	1	Rikbakara;	Yes	-0.2
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-5	30.403	2	2	Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-2; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-4;	No	-0.9

17 additional targets not listed, 33 total
Taranis cycles back round to some close-in inhabited systems. Other than the backwards attack on Cao Tzu, prevention will involve some quite deep recaptures.

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Calculating Leigong
Read 132 control systems and 867 targets.
Total connected: 128
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2	23.62518601
HR 457	27.84494245
Arietis Sector VO-R b4-1	33.13603884
HIP 6869	33.32576249

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-12	27.424	1	1	Arietis Sector KM-W d1-93;	No	0.9
Garongxians	28.152	2	2	Jementi; Ceti Sector XJ-A c18;	Yes	0.8
Arietis Sector DW-N b6-3	38.317	1	1	HIP 6869;	No	0.5

No further targets possible
The low connectivity and so many nearby systems on cooldown is really starting to hurt Leigong's expansion.

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Calculating Indra
Read 153 control systems and 841 targets.
Total connected: 153

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Kagutsuchi	22.496	2	2	Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3; Arietis Sector NH-V b2-0;	Yes	-0.4
HIP 20492	24.043	22	22	71 Tauri; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc	Yes	1
HIP 20019	25.583	18	18	HIP 20577; HIP 20679; Hyadum II; etc	Yes	1
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18	26.589	4	4	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4; Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9; etc	Yes	-0.4
HIP 20850	26.986	13	13	77 Theta-1 Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 21474	27.124	11	11	86 Rho Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	1
48 Tauri	27.453	14	14	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; HR 1358; etc	Yes	1
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3	27.512	4	4	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0 (9.980 LY); Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4; Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17; etc	No	-1
HIP 21317	27.515	10	10	HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 20741; etc	No	1
Hyades Sector VK-L a9-0	27.650	6	6	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-4; Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0; HIP 21788; etc	No	-0.3
HIP 20826	27.682	5	5	79 b Tauri; HR 1358; HIP 20616; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20719	27.717	13	12.2	Hyadum II; ~~HIP 20815;~~ 58 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
HIP 21459	27.732	3	3	Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-1; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-2;	Yes	0.7
Hyades Sector JD-G a12-0	27.763	3	3	HIP 22496; HIP 22422; HIP 22203;	No	0.6

80 additional targets not listed, 94 total
Manual override shown in red. It's skipped over this system in favour of slightly more distant inhabited ones twice already, and has the opportunity to do so again. HIP 21474 seems considerably more likely as a target.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 31 control systems and 960 targets.
Total connected: 26
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Chernobo	15.57607967
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2	15.98888774
Tougeir	16.22455941
Liu Huang	17.75687587
Akbakara	18.17006789

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector AV-Y b2	18.346	1	1	Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;	No	-0.2
Lahua	19.363	1	1	Tougeir;	Yes	0.9
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2	22.149	2	2	HIP 8525; HIP 7338 (9.988 LY);	No	0.5
Bumbo	22.416	2	1.2	~~HIP 8525;~~ HIP 7338;	Yes	0.9
Muncheim	23.557	1	1	HIP 7338;	Yes	0.7
Poqomathi	24.136	1	0.2	~~HIP 8525;~~	Yes	0.6

No further targets possible
Lahua was skipped last week, but with only two controls targeting the 3rd-6th places, it's unlikely to be skipped again this time. Default attack would be 8525 against DQ-Y then 7338 against Bumbo - but either or both skipping ahead and replacing those with Muncheim or Poqomathi could happen. Again, the poor perimeter connectivity gives Oya only 4 Alerts maximum this week.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 189 control systems and 805 targets.
Total connected: 189

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7	23.878	1	1	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2;	No	0.7
Paitra	24.880	12	12	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3; etc	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5	26.491	1	1	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3;	Yes	0.9
Laumas	29.269	8	8	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	Yes	0.5
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76	29.600	4	4	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8; etc	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5	29.605	2	2	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	No	0.8
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	4	2.4	~~Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;~~ Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4; ~~Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2;~~ etc	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1	30.453	1	1	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-5	31.260	1	1	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	3	3	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5	31.444	2	2	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4	31.529	4	4	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; etc	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11	31.563	2	2	Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-23	31.584	4	4	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25; etc	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1	31.586	2	2	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.4

54 additional targets not listed, 69 total
While a skip ahead to YT-F b12-3 could happen, Cocijo so far hasn't been doing that sort of thing.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 107 control systems and 888 targets.
Total connected: 95
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Rajuarpai	11.4695589
Chanyaya	16.10879151
HIP 19894	16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14	17.71585625
HIP 20024	19.46077284
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1	21.81126877
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0	22.79575584
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1	23.95464872
HIP 18857	24.61621433
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2	25.94627111
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-4	30.23485545
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-3	31.52685177

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-3	23.239	2	2	Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-2; Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0;	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-3	28.314	1	1	Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-1	31.550	2	2	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-4; Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-3;	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-4	36.696	1	1	Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-3;	No	0
Col 285 Sector HP-H b10-3	39.488	1	1	Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12;	No	-0.4
HIP 16798	39.528	1	1	Col 285 Sector MQ-F b11-3;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-0	40.041	1	1	Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-1;	No	-0.7
Hyades Sector NH-M b7-3	40.195	2	2	Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1; Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16;	No	0.6
HIP 18271	41.463	1	1	Col 285 Sector QX-U d2-48;	No	-0.5

No further targets possible
Thor has a bit more perimeter to work with, so starts the week with lots of targets. Most of them are pointed away from the bubble, sure, but still, it's doing better than Leigong or Oya are.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 153 control systems and 839 targets.
Total connected: 152
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Hosan	27.87701436

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 116360	20.902	2	2	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71;	Yes	-0.5
Holvandalla	21.476	9	9	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc	Yes	0.6
Isla	23.900	3	3	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2 (9.952 LY); HIP 116542; HIP 116052;	Yes	-0.1
Aurus	25.723	6	6	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 (10.004 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20; Iduni; etc	Yes	0.1
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-104	27.209	1	1	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6;	No	-0.7
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3	27.329	4	4	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; HIP 113535; HIP 112595; etc	No	0.8
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1	27.392	6	6	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; Ixbaksha; etc	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1	27.419	11	11	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No	-0.3
Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2	27.462	1	1	HIP 113076;	No	1
Pegasi Sector JS-Q a6-2	27.531	7	7	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; etc	No	0.4
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-1	27.547	6	6	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; etc	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25	27.616	1	1	Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	No	0.1
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0	27.670	5	5	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2; etc	No	0.6
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-1	27.817	8	8	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2; etc	No	0.3
Tvasu	27.856	1	0.2	~~HIP 113076;~~	Yes	1
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-3	27.885	7	7	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 (9.926 LY); HIP 115162; Nibelaako; etc	No	-0

74 additional targets not listed, 90 total
Raijin cycling back round to attack the inhabited systems protected a few weeks ago. In theory the distance gap between FW-W and Tvasu isn't that large, if it wants to join Oya and Indra in skipping targets.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 66 control systems and 931 targets.
Total connected: 65
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3	24.11759116

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Muruidooges	18.367	3	3	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY); Omumba; HR 2204;	Yes	0.6
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5	19.632	1	1	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4;	No	-0.7
Fotlandjera	19.687	1	1	Omumba;	Yes	0.2
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2	22.853	1	1	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1	23.674	1	1	Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1;	No	0.9
HIP 29217	25.118	1	1	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-7	25.952	2	2	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-1	26.107	1	1	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-3 (9.990 LY);	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-29	28.359	1	1	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-6	28.935	1	1	HR 2138;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7	30.393	1	1	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7;	No	-0.9

No further targets possible
Hadad gets a bit more chance to break out - though as with Thor, a lot of this will have to be away from the bubble.

Code:

-- Taranis
Hyades Sector GW-W d1-87:1
Trianguli Sector CA-A c14:1
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b5:1
Hyades Sector IM-L b8-5:1
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-3:1
-- Leigong
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-2:1
-- Indra
63 Tauri:1
HR 1354:1
HIP 20712:1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4:1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1:1
-- Oya
Chernobo:1
Ardhri:1
Sambaho:1
HIP 10778:1
Daruwach:1
-- Cocijo
Mapon:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-5:1
Kurumanit:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5:1
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4:1
Chakma:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5:1
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0:1
Montioch:1
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1:1

Ralph Vargr · Jul 6, 2023

They promised Colonia. And, cheese. And, bacon.

Aleks Zuno · Jul 6, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
(Taranis prediction further updated for final recaptures)

As much as my mind knows its purpose is to list that which can be disrupted, I still feel quite bad for messing up the prediction. Thank you ever so much for watching over and establishing the nature of the attacks, and I hope for the mystery omissions to become clear!

I know it was I who mentioned back-attacking originally; at the time I forgot very much to add that I am not concerned directly that the attack is backwards, but that the attack is upon a system of higher strength. To that end, among the things I told V is that everything needs Maelstrom distances and whether it is inhabited, to keep it obvious that an empty system attacking a populated system forwards is still more important to stop.

Conversely, I need to admit that I am not really sure how to use the knowledge of whether a system has been isolated from its friends, at least not before it appears as an attacker eventually.

Ian Doncaster · Jul 6, 2023

Aleks Zuno said:
Conversely, I need to admit that I am not really sure how to use the knowledge of whether a system has been isolated from its friends, at least not before it appears as an attacker eventually.

At Oya I believe they're intending to target Chernobo despite its difficulty precisely because it can't then be easily re-attacked, whereas the effort required to hold a connected inhabited system at that distance every few weeks would be at best inefficient compared with making recaptures elsewhere.

Backwards attacks probably have the same sort of utility - if the only attacks on a system are backwards, that implies it should be relatively easy to hold as a beachhead because the Maelstrom needs to take an out-and-back route to capture it which gives multiple opportunities to disrupt or force cooldowns.

Ian Doncaster · Jul 13, 2023

Slightly late final prediction
- Taranis loses most of its targets
- Leigong and Thor completely locked down
- recaptures at Indra, Cocijo and Raijin do not affect the primary prediction
- predictions at Indra and Oya retain above-noted uncertainties.

Calculating Taranis

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 25679	17.402	1	1	Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2;	Yes	0.4
HIP 23716	18.430	4	4	Trianguli Sector BA-A d85; Trianguli Sector CA-A c22; Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4; etc	Yes	0.9
Ebisu	21.049	2	2	Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4; Hyades Sector EB-N b7-0;	Yes	0.1
Lovaroju	26.925	1	1	Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3 (10.021 LY);	Yes	-1
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-6	29.818	1	1	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-2 (10.015 LY);	No	0.2

No further targets possible

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong

Target

Distance

Controls

Confidence

Attackers

Inhabited?

Advance

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
After recaptures, read 152 control systems (153 originally) and 841 targets.
Total connected: 152

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Kagutsuchi	22.496	2	2	Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3; Arietis Sector NH-V b2-0;	Yes	-0.4
HIP 20492	24.043	22	22	71 Tauri; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etc	Yes	1
HIP 20019	25.583	17	17	HIP 20577; HIP 20679; Hyadum II; etc	Yes	1
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18	26.589	4	4	Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3; Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4; Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9; etc	Yes	-0.4
HIP 20850	26.986	13	13	77 Theta-1 Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 21474	27.124	11	11	86 Rho Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	1
48 Tauri	27.453	13	13	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; HR 1358; etc	Yes	1
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3	27.512	4	4	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0 (9.980 LY); Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4; Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17; etc	No	-1
HIP 21317	27.515	10	10	HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 20741; etc	No	1
Hyades Sector VK-L a9-0	27.650	6	6	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-4; Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0; HIP 21788; etc	No	-0.3
HIP 20826	27.682	5	5	79 b Tauri; HR 1358; HIP 20616; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20719	27.717	12	11.2	Hyadum II; ~~HIP 20815;~~ 58 Tauri; etc	Yes	1
HIP 21459	27.732	3	3	Arietis Sector TY-P a6-0; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-1; Arietis Sector TY-P a6-2;	Yes	0.7
Hyades Sector JD-G a12-0	27.763	3	3	HIP 22496; HIP 22422; HIP 22203;	No	0.6

82 additional targets not listed, 96 total

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Cephei Sector AV-Y b2	18.346	1	1	Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;	No	-0.2
Lahua	19.363	1	1	Tougeir;	Yes	0.9
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2	22.149	2	2	HIP 8525; HIP 7338 (9.988 LY);	No	0.5
Bumbo	22.416	2	1.2	~~HIP 8525;~~ HIP 7338;	Yes	0.9
Muncheim	23.557	1	1	HIP 7338;	Yes	0.7
Poqomathi	24.136	1	0.2	~~HIP 8525;~~	Yes	0.6

No further targets possible

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7	23.878	1	1	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2;	No	0.7
Paitra	24.880	12	12	Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3; etc	Yes	0.7
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5	26.491	1	1	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3;	Yes	0.9
Laumas	29.269	8	8	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	Yes	0.5
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76	29.600	4	4	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8; etc	No	0.2
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5	29.605	2	2	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	No	0.8
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	4	2.4	~~Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;~~ Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4; ~~Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2;~~ etc	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1	30.453	1	1	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-5	31.260	1	1	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	3	3	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4;	No	0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5	31.444	2	2	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4	31.529	4	4	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; etc	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11	31.563	2	2	Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4;	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-23	31.584	4	4	Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2; Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25; etc	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1	31.586	2	2	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.4

54 additional targets not listed, 69 total

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor

Target

Distance

Controls

Confidence

Attackers

Inhabited?

Advance

No further targets possible

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 116360	20.902	2	2	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71;	Yes	-0.5
Holvandalla	21.476	9	9	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc	Yes	0.6
Isla	23.900	3	3	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2 (9.952 LY); HIP 116542; HIP 116052;	Yes	-0.1
Aurus	25.723	6	6	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 (10.004 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20; Iduni; etc	Yes	0.1
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-104	27.209	1	1	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6;	No	-0.7
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3	27.329	4	4	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; HIP 113535; HIP 112595; etc	No	0.8
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1	27.392	5	5	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; Ixbaksha; etc	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1	27.419	11	11	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No	-0.3
Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2	27.462	1	1	HIP 113076;	No	1
Pegasi Sector JS-Q a6-2	27.531	4	4	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2; etc	No	0.4
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-1	27.547	6	6	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; etc	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25	27.616	1	1	Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	No	0.1
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-0	27.670	4	4	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2; etc	No	0.6
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-1	27.817	7	7	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2; etc	No	0.3
Tvasu	27.856	1	0.2	~~HIP 113076;~~	Yes	1
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-3	27.885	6	6	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 (9.926 LY); HIP 115162; Nibelaako; etc	No	-0

67 additional targets not listed, 83 total

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Muruidooges	18.367	3	3	Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2 (9.934 LY); Omumba; HR 2204;	Yes	0.6
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-5	19.632	1	1	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4;	No	-0.7
Fotlandjera	19.687	1	1	Omumba;	Yes	0.2
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2	22.853	1	1	Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-1	23.674	1	1	Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1;	No	0.9
HIP 29217	25.118	1	1	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-7	25.952	2	2	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-1	26.107	1	1	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-3 (9.990 LY);	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-29	28.359	1	1	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-6	28.935	1	1	HR 2138;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7	30.393	1	1	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7;	No	-0.9

No further targets possible

Aleks Zuno · Jul 13, 2023

Everything was correct with the number of Alerts, and with the targets of all Maelstroms except for M. Oya, which indeed triggered target-skipping at Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2 then selected Muncheim and Poqomathi at the end of the list, quite reminiscent of how Muncheim itself once was missed in a similar manner as with Bumbo this time.

Moreover, I cannot help but notice that Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2 being skipped now at M. Oya and Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18 being skipped in the past at M. Indra both refer to DQ-Y in their names. I know that having similar codes there relate their positions, and I know that b2 means a 20-light-year volume and c18 means a 40-light-year volume, although one thing I never got around to reading is the full explorer accounts of how those codes work. Either way, does that yield any connection?

I think it would be well to read back through those occurrences and produce a list of systems which initiated such skips, which I will try to get around to doing if V does not do it first, now that I have mentioned it!

Ian Doncaster · Jul 13, 2023

Prediction check:
- Taranis: 100% (3 of 3, as expected the two over-range ones don't happen)
- Leigong: NaN% (0 of 0)
- Indra: 100% on default prediction (DQ-Y c18, despite being skipped repeatedly, is attacked this time after all)
- Oya: 50% (DQ-Y and Bumbo skipped in favour of Muncheim and Poqomathi; previously skipped Lahua attacked normally)
- Cocijo: 100%
- Thor: NaN%
- Raijin: 100%
- Hadad: 100%

Oya's moves are interesting:
- 8525 skipping DQ-Y for something further out wasn't entirely surprising, picking the furthest Poqomathi rather than the nearer Bumbo or Muncheim isn't all that surprising either
- 7338 then presumably had the same choice: skip DQ-Y as it's uninhabited, pick the further Muncheim over the nearer Bumbo.
There's potentially an implication here that if 8525 hadn't skipped DQ-Y, 7338 might then have had Bumbo as a first target and gone for it. Not sure how we'd go about setting up a sensible experiment to test that sort of thing.

Indra's belated return to DQ-Y c18 suggests that it's not just that it doesn't want to go there at all, which rules out a bunch of possible explanations but still leaves us without a particularly convincing explanation. (It was hit as 4 of 5, but then Oya skipped its equivalent at 4 of 5 and 5 of 5)

Aleks Zuno said:
b2 means a 20-light-year volume and c18 means a 40-light-year volume

Slightly more complex in that these are subregions of spherical override sectors, so some of the volume of that cube might lie outside the override sphere.

DQ-Y I think implies a moderately common direction relative to the centre of the sphere, but of course the spheres aren't centred on the maelstroms, so DQ-Y at Oya is towards Sol from the Maelstrom, and at Indra is away.

Still, that is at the very least an interesting coincidence and while "DQ-Y systems can trigger skipping behaviour" would be a bizarre explanation, it might still be relevant somehow...

Aleks Zuno · Jul 13, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
Still, that is at the very least an interesting coincidence and while "DQ-Y systems can trigger skipping behaviour" would be a bizarre explanation, it might still be relevant somehow...

My thoughts were less about the DQ-Y occurrence in particular, but that it was a matching code common to Cephei Sector and Arietis Sector. I can find examples aplenty where systems with the same code were attacked in the same week, including with DQ-Y, however they appear all to be part of the same sector when it occurs. For example:

Week 23; Pegasi Sectors NN-S b4-3 and b4-4
Week 25; Arietis Sectors DW-N b6-3 and b6-4, Col 285 Sectors FU-H b10-2 and b10-3, Col 285 Sectors TS-Z b14-2 and b14-3
Week 30; three at Col 285 Sectors YT-F b12-3, b12-5 and b12-7

There are many others before, between and after those; not every week, but much of the time!

Conversely, and very possibly for lack of an automated check, I am looking through previous Alerts and cannot find any examples of the same code being attacked at different sectors. To a large extent this will be due to rarity, yet clearly it occurs! Likewise I could not check all of the possible targets myself, although if I consider some of those occasions where you have reported a skipped target, I have a few observations:

In week 27 reported here Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3 was skipped; according to INTRA, Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-5 was a possible target.
In week 28 reported here Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18 was skipped; according both to INTRA and to the update here, Cephei Sector DQ-Y b4 was a possible target.
In week 29 reported here M. Oya missed its fifth target, which was Cephei Sector HW-W b1-5; according to INTRA, Hyades Sectors HW-W d1-86, HW-W d1-105 and HW-W d1-106 were all possible targets.
In week 30 here Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2 was skipped and needed some extra tinkering to explain what was attacked instead; according both to INTRA and to the original list here, Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18 was a possible target.
In week 31 here Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18 was skipped again; both INTRA and the update here have this time Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2 as a possible target. Lahua was skipped also; I will return to that in a moment!
That brings us up to now, where Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2 was just skipped, and Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18 was not only a target, but actually attacked.

So—for the last six weeks, despite the obvious rarity of these codes matching at all, every skipped system bearing such a code also involved an identical code present at a different sector. I would need V kindly to supply INTRA with some historic data before I can search any further back in time, though for week 26 here, one seeks two sectors bearing a OC-V code to explain M. Thor failing to attack Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73.

Regarding cases such as Lahua, I wonder now what would be its Cephei Sector code had it not been granted the name Lahua. I wonder what would be the sectors and codes of various HIP systems skipped this way. I wonder whether considering those names may be required to explain some cases, such as if no OC-V match is discovered above. I wonder also what would be the sector and code for all of these systems had they not, as you say, been granted special sphere sectors—although that may be irrelevant if they all would have been Synuefe in that case. That is to say, the application of those spherical sectors will have caused this phenomenon!

The hypothesis of matching codes is quite plainly very bold; a single matching code present at a different sector among the entire target lists of every Maelstrom for every week, for any system attacked that week, would be a counter-example. Then again, there are only forty per week at most, and matches are rare!

Ian Doncaster · Jul 13, 2023

With the majority of override sectors being Col 285 (where the codes for different maelstroms can't match directly in Col 285, and have vanishingly unlikely chances of being in the much smaller set of codes used by the smaller Arietis/Hyades/Pegasi/Cephei sectors) it'd be a long shot, certainly!

I would guess Lahua is "Cephei Sector CV-Y b0", though I can't test that by searching in-game right now.

Aleks Zuno said:
one seeks two sectors bearing a OC-V code to explain M. Thor failing to attack Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-73.

Checking, the only non-Thor OC-Vs within vague vicinity of a Maelstrom are the Arietis OC-V b2-2 and -3 systems "near" Leigong (and at almost 60 LY, not near enough)

Ian Doncaster · Jul 13, 2023

Narwhal Nose report generated 13 July
(includes early recaptures of Gandje and Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-3)
-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis
After recaptures, read 65 control systems (66 originally) and 925 targets.
Total connected: 64
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-23	27.69035679

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Nihal	21.441	1	1	Hyades Sector KH-L b8-0;	Yes	0.4
Cao Tzu	21.518	1	1	Hyades Sector GW-W d1-87;	Yes	-0
Awara	21.997	2	2	Hyades Sector EB-N b7-0; HIP 23593;	Yes	0.4
Paeni	26.728	1	1	29 e Orionis;	Yes	0.3
Lovaroju	26.925	1	1	Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3 (10.021 LY);	Yes	-1
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-6	29.818	1	1	Hyades Sector EG-N b7-2 (10.015 LY);	No	0.2

No further targets possible
After last week's frenzy, Taranis is down to just four targets to start the week (the remaining two were proven out-of-range last week and will be excluded from future prediction generations). No reason to assume it won't attack everything it's allowed of those four.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 127 control systems and 871 targets.
Total connected: 121
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
HIP 9764	24.37487981
Arietis Sector KM-W d1-81	26.62063491
HR 457	27.84494245
Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-1	30.50688319
HIP 9607	32.01880856
Arietis Sector VO-R b4-1	33.13603884

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Pathamon	22.064	6	6	HIP 7277; Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56; Arietis Sector MX-U c2-17; etc	Yes	0.5
Arietis Sector VO-R b4-2	27.941	1	1	Arietis Sector VO-R b4-1;	No	0.6
Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-4	33.617	4	4	HIP 9764; Arietis Sector KM-W d1-81; Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-1; etc	No	0.9
Arietis Sector IR-W c1-8	37.662	4	4	Arietis Sector SD-T b3-2; Arietis Sector SD-T b3-3; Arietis Sector TD-T b3-0; etc	No	-0.4
Hyades Sector CB-O b6-1	38.654	1	1	HIP 10972;	No	-0.8
Arietis Sector GG-Y d66	39.195	4	4	Arietis Sector GG-Y d67; Arietis Sector TD-T b3-0; Arietis Sector GG-Y d65; etc	No	-0.3
Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-2	39.573	1	1	Arietis Sector ZU-P b5-1;	No	0.9
Arietis Sector QS-U b2-2	39.826	1	1	Arietis Sector TD-T b3-0;	No	-0.6
HIP 11309	40.414	1	1	Arietis Sector VY-S b3-3;	No	-0.7
Arietis Sector FG-Y d49	40.598	1	1	Arietis Sector SD-T b3-3;	No	-0.5
Arietis Sector EL-Y c8	42.784	1	1	Arietis Sector GG-Y d65;	No	-0.5

No further targets possible
A few more options for Leigong this time to regain lost ground. Targets two and three are in an isolated block at the moment. Again, no reason to believe it won't be top 5 of whatever is available.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 152 control systems and 841 targets.
Total connected: 152

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 19157	21.650	1	1	Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4;	Yes	-0.6
HIP 20890	21.889	13	13	64 Tauri (10.013 LY); HR 1354; HIP 20679; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20527	22.540	20	20	Hyadum I; HIP 20916; HIP 20397; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20899	23.086	19	19	HIP 20916; HR 1354; HIP 20679; etc	Yes	1
HIP 20491	23.341	8	8	HIP 19934 (10.022 LY); HIP 20480; HIP 20712; etc	Yes	0.4
HIP 19757	24.520	4	4	HIP 20419; Scythia; Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2; etc	Yes	0.1
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.286	7	7	HIP 20480 (9.966 LY); HIP 20712; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; etc	No	0.6
HIP 21474	27.124	11	11	86 Rho Tauri; 70 Tauri; HIP 20815; etc	Yes	1
48 Tauri	27.453	13	13	70 Tauri; HIP 20815; HR 1358; etc	Yes	1
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-3	27.512	4	4	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0 (9.980 LY); Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4; Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17; etc	No	-1
HIP 21317	27.515	10	10	HIP 20815; 92 Sigma-2 Tauri; HIP 20741; etc	No	1
Hyades Sector VK-L a9-0	27.650	6	6	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-4; Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0; HIP 21788; etc	No	-0.3
HIP 20826	27.682	5	5	79 b Tauri; HR 1358; HIP 20616; etc	Yes	0.9
HIP 20719	27.717	12	11.2	Hyadum II; ~~HIP 20815;~~ 58 Tauri; etc	Yes	1

84 additional targets not listed, 98 total
Indra's dense connections and high inhabited systems make anything other than the first five very unlikely, but it has made surprising moves before.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 31 control systems and 963 targets.
Total connected: 26
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Chernobo	15.57607967
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2	15.98888774
Tougeir	16.22455941
Liu Huang	17.75687587
Akbakara	18.17006789

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 21386	20.509	3	3	Cephei Sector BV-Y b2; Liu Huang; Akbakara;	No	0.7
Cephei Sector AF-A c22	21.188	4	4	Niu Yun (9.908 LY); Warnones; HIP 13179; etc	No	0.5
Cephei Sector AV-Y b6	21.332	1	1	Ardhri;	No	-0.1
Luggerates	21.962	1	1	Sambaho;	Yes	0.3
Lyncis Sector YF-O b6-1	22.230	1	1	Chernobo;	No	-0.3
Aowicha	23.769	1	1	Daruwach;	Yes	-0.3
HIP 11111	24.118	2	2	HIP 13179; Cephei Sector AF-A c9;	Yes	0.6

No further targets possible
Chernobo is likely to be recaptured this week to protect that disconnected region permanently, leaving just six remaining targets. Attacking HIP 11111 instead of one of the inner uninhabited systems would be unsurprising, but can't be confidently predicted either.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
After recaptures, read 188 control systems (189 originally) and 805 targets.
Total connected: 188

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Canaharvas	23.548	8	8	Mapon; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; etc	Yes	0.9
Chibis	24.821	2	2	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6;	Yes	0.9
Njana	26.325	3	3	Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-105; Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-4;	Yes	0.6
Asletae	28.536	3	3	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0; Picenile; Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-7;	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5	29.605	2	2	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	No	0.8
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-3	29.643	1	1	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6;	No	1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	3	2.2	~~Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1;~~ Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	Yes	0.9
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-2	30.067	1	1	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0;	No	0.7
HIP 39468	30.337	5	5	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-115; etc	No	-0.1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6	30.355	3	3	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1	30.453	1	1	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8;	No	0.3
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1	30.635	4	4	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-116 (10.010 LY); etc	No	-0.4
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16	30.965	2	2	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-5	31.260	1	1	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6;	No	0.6
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	3	3	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4;	No	0.5

56 additional targets not listed, 71 total
Fairly standard set of top-5 targets for Cocijo, will likely follow-through.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 97 control systems and 902 targets.
Total connected: 84
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Rajuarpai	11.4695589
Chanyaya	16.10879151
HIP 19894	16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14	17.71585625
HIP 20024	19.46077284
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1	21.81126877
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1	23.95464872
HIP 18857	24.61621433
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-2	25.94627111
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-2	33.52490038
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-17	35.48607782
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-0	36.36741491
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-3	37.93461686

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Unktety	25.357	1	1	HIP 19198;	Yes	1
HIP 17897	28.008	1	1	Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-3;	No	0.4
Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-2	37.408	2	2	Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3; Col 285 Sector QX-U d2-47;	No	-0.7

No further targets possible
Thor not starting the week in a good position, will probably attack whatever it's allowed to.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 146 control systems and 848 targets.
Total connected: 145
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Hosan	27.87701436

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
Nu Guang	19.330	1	1	Snoqui;	Yes	0.9
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6	21.188	3	3	HIP 115162; Nibelaako; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-7;	No	0
Tagin	23.269	5	5	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-5; etc	Yes	0.4
Bormuninus	24.356	4	4	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0; etc	Yes	-0.3
Pegasi Sector GW-V b2-3	25.918	2	2	Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6 (9.914 LY); Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71;	No	-0.6
Jawul	26.675	2	2	Chinas; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	Yes	0.2
Ngolite	26.894	4	4	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; etc	Yes	0.8
Koko Oh	27.066	5	5	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; etc	Yes	0.6
Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-6	27.115	3	3	HIP 116351; HIP 117229; Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1;	No	0.2
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d101	27.269	1	1	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4;	No	-0.8
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3	27.329	4	4	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; HIP 112595; etc	No	0.8
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-1	27.392	5	5	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1; Ixbaksha; etc	No	0.7
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1	27.419	11	11	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No	-0.3
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-4	27.428	3	3	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3; HIP 116542; HIP 116052;	No	0.1

74 additional targets not listed, 88 total
A couple of previous recaptures now place uninhabited systems in Raijin's top-5. Skipping them is possible but unlikely.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 66 control systems and 929 targets.
Total connected: 65
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3	24.11759116

Target	Distance	Controls	Confidence	Attackers	Inhabited?	Advance
HIP 29596	18.225	2	2	Montioch; HR 2204;	Yes	0.8
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-2	18.310	2	2	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-1; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3	22.024	1	1	HR 2204 (9.988 LY);	No	0.9
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1	22.869	2	2	HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15;	No	-0.7
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-5	24.456	1	1	HIP 32764;	No	-0.4
HIP 29217	25.118	1	1	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;	No	-0.6
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-7	25.952	2	2	Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-5	26.055	1	1	Vasupari (9.991 LY);	No	0.8
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-1	26.107	1	1	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-3 (9.990 LY);	No	-0.9
Col 285 Sector GQ-O c6-29	28.359	1	1	Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-28;	No	-0.5
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-6	28.935	1	1	HR 2138;	No	-0.3
Col 285 Sector TH-B b14-7	30.393	1	1	Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7;	No	-0.9

No further targets possible
Only the one inhabited target for Hadad this week, though more options for advancing as previous systems come off cooldown.

Code:

Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-3:2
Gandje:2
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Taranis
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2:1
Trianguli Sector BA-A d85:1
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4:1
-- Leigong
-- Indra
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3:1
71 Tauri:1
HIP 20577:1
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-3:1
77 Theta-1 Tauri:1
-- Oya
Cephei Sector AV-Y b3:1
Tougeir:1
HIP 7338:1
HIP 8525:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4:1
-- Thor
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10:1
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0:1
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-2:1
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4:1
Omumba:1
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0:1
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1:1

Aleks Zuno · Jul 13, 2023

Ian Doncaster said:
With the majority of override sectors being Col 285 (where the codes for different maelstroms can't match directly in Col 285, and have vanishingly unlikely chances of being in the much smaller set of codes used by the smaller Arietis/Hyades/Pegasi/Cephei sectors) it'd be a long shot, certainly!

As one of the Empire's foremost proponents of Fragment cannons, it is quite appropriate that I took a high number of short shots just in case one of them were to hit. Behold—

Ian Doncaster said:
I would guess Lahua is "Cephei Sector CV-Y b0", though I can't test that by searching in-game right now.

This was very impressively close! Cephei Sector CV-Y b0 is Muchihiks, b1 is an empty system named thus genuinely, b2 is Tougeir, b3 finally struck Lahua, and there was also b4 becoming Songlalis nearby.

Having associated Lahua with CV-Y, I then started guessing other sector codes which appear often in this context and attaching similar star class codes, and I found that Arietis Sector CV-Y c encroaches upon M. Indra. Most of those are Control systems, but I found that Arietis Sectors CV-Y c4, c7 and c10 take us to HIPs 21380, 22394 and 23750, which were all possible targets in week 31.

Ian Doncaster said:
Checking, the only non-Thor OC-Vs within vague vicinity of a Maelstrom are the Arietis OC-V b2-2 and -3 systems "near" Leigong (and at almost 60 LY, not near enough)

This search I found most interesting; it looks like there are a lot of sector codes which overlap. I found that Arietis Sector OC-V c2-18 takes us to Trianguli Sector GG-Y c18, which was a target but unconvincingly given that it ought to be GG-Y.

Using Arietis Sector OC-V c2-19 takes us to Didiomanja, which was also a target, but only half-convincingly given that Trianguli Sector GG-Y c19 also works for it. I suppose my thoughts are:

Unless V can conjure an automated search which finds just as many cases involving directly-matching codes where nothing was skipped, I think one may be able to use the presence of matching codes across sectors to detect at least some cases where a skip will occur. Perhaps not all cases and perhaps not which will skip and which will attack, but at least some cases and at least knowing to expect it!
If that turns out to correlate well, the next step surely is to unmask all of these systems; we would need to know that similar behaviour in the past can be paired plausibly using the underlying sector codes, such as M. Hadad and the MR-M code, and that there are still no false positives while working with those underlying codes.
Matching Didiomanja to Arietis Sector OC-V c2-19 is unconvincing given that it seems to be within the edge of a Trianguli sphere, itself placed atop a Hyades sphere, though that is not to say that a less tenuous OC-V match exists elsewhere. Then again, perhaps the very fact that GG-Y in one context overlaps OC-V in another is part of the original problem!

Disemboweled Ego · Jul 13, 2023

Aleks Zuno said:
Matching Didiomanja to Arietis Sector OC-V c2-19 is unconvincing given that it seems to be within the edge of a Trianguli sphere, itself placed atop a Hyades sphere, though that is not to say that a less tenuous OC-V match exists elsewhere. Then again, perhaps the very fact that GG-Y in one context overlaps OC-V in another is part of the original problem!

But what abotu Synuefe NJ-P c22-18 and Flyooe Dryiae NJ-P c22-18?

I think internally the game would use the id64 and actual positions for it, but my code I use to generate those names also has a bug where it gives the remaining names in a different order depending on if the system has a canonical name or not so it's believable that there could be some issues with that.

Disemboweled Ego · Jul 13, 2023

Is there any possibility that thargoids have invaded hidden systems not visible on the galaxy map? ( on the lines of this post https://forums.frontier.co.uk/threads/wregoe-yk-p-e5-83.606558/#post-9906531 )

CMDR Vulkarius · Jul 14, 2023

I think we may be on to something there!
There ARE a bunch of cases each cycle where the AB-C part matches but very few in the top 5.

I bodged a quick sector check when it makes a target report to help take a look.
Not fully working yet, has some false top 5s which need checking manually, but good enough for now.
Notes are -
27: Catches LC-U, also catches FB-X (good - that was part of the hurricane earlier), looks like Cephei Sector FB-X b1-5 clashed with Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-24 c1-4 c1-21
28: Catches DQ-Y, also FB-X again at Oya when it only placed 4, however both VK-L and WK-L succeeded at Raijin despite Pegasi/Hyades clashes
29: Misses HW-W because it thinks Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1 can attack and pushes HW-W to 6th, nothing else to report
30: Catches DQ-Y, reports that HW-W would have clashed again but didn't get the chance because BD+77 84 was cleared
31: Catches DQ-Y, also WK-L again (Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-1 was attacked despite Hyades Sector WK-L a9-3 a9-0 a9-1)
32: Catches DQ-Y, nothing else

So it looks like that idea had some chances for skips to happen which didn't (WK-L and VK-L).
I think that means it "may" happen exactly like that, just not necessarily.
In those cases WK-L and VK-L were only top 5 on the Pegasi side - we've seen a double top 5 with one side succeeding, so maybe it got lucky, or maybe Hyades is 2nd class.
There also aren't a massive number of counterexamples, only those involving top 5s, and it actually helps explain the FB-X problems.
Actually it looks like Pegasi "wins" a lot - Pegasi systems get attacked and others get skipped when Pegasi is around.
That can't be transitive though because Arietis and Cephei have gone either way before.

I'm thinking that maybe it bungs the target systems into a hashtable with the sector block as the index, so when it looks up that bucket it has a chance of getting something from the wrong sector / too far away.
That could explain why the one-sided top 5s sometimes work, it got lucky with the lookup.
For both top 5 I believe one of them will always succeed if it does that - though it would have to implement removal and also get lucky for both to succeed, but could happen I suppose.

The part I like about this is how it doesn't care about unpop/inhab, so it stays inclusive of skipping Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18.

Aleks Zuno · Jul 14, 2023

CMDR Vulkarius said:
27: Catches LC-U, also catches FB-X (good - that was part of the hurricane earlier), looks like Cephei Sector FB-X b1-5 clashed with Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-24 c1-4 c1-21
28: Catches DQ-Y, also FB-X again at Oya when it only placed 4, however both VK-L and WK-L succeeded at Raijin despite Pegasi/Hyades clashes

That is great that the extra FB-X match may help explain things!

In the cases with VK-L and WK-L, the biggest difference I can see is that those are all inside a-blocks, whereas all of those observed problems occurred with b-, c- and d-blocks. There are some matches where the b, c and d are mixed, but of those checked thus far, no skipped system or its matched culprit have involved an a-block and all attacked systems despite having a matched culprit have been with two a-blocks.

I would love to check further back in time, if INTRA can be given the full data from previous weeks! For what it is worth, I still have Col 285 Sector MR-M c7-22 bookmarked from long ago which clearly was a c-block, although the goal is to check whether an a-block match gets skipped or a non-a match gets attacked.

Ian Doncaster · Jul 14, 2023

If it was just about sector code overlaps, then that would mean that the Alert losing (as opposed to skipping; for reasons other than complete lack of targets) only happening at Maelstroms which had been heavily attacked the previous week was the coincidental bit.

Skipping has only been observed at Oya and Indra so far. Cephei is unique to Oya, but Arietis covers Leigong as well.

It seems massively overcomplicated if it's intended behaviour - everything else has been extremely simple in retrospect once the correct analysis has been done to sift out the pattern, and would require utterly bizarre data storage and processing if it was a bug.

Also unclear: why do the skips at Oya also skip over intermediate inhabited systems, but Indra doesn't? Oya when skipping has in effect picked the furthest inhabited targets instead (so on an idea of working forward on the priority list, Bumbo was also skipped this week, Muncheim skipped on June 29th, ) ... Indra has always picked the exact next system on the priority list (or possibly next inhabited system, the distinction isn't visible yet).

Disemboweled Ego said:
Is there any possibility that thargoids have invaded hidden systems not visible on the galaxy map?

I don't think that's a plausible explanation.
- The system state totals on the galaxy map's war summary match the number of systems found in each state.
- Even if that summary had a "where visible = true" in it, all of the Maelstroms with unexpectedly missing alerts (Hadad, Thor, Oya) have since been forced out of placing Alerts by cutting off their frontline entirely, so if they had invisibly captured a system, they would surely have used it to place alerts from later.
- Hadad avoided MR-M c7-22 three times in a row, too - there surely aren't that many hidden systems near it?