Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

It explains why there were only 4 alerts in weeks 35 to 37, then this week Ardhri instantly switches into NAF and is close-in so it gets the full 5, and it also seems to work fine for weeks 32 and 33.
Checking more thoroughly, this theory isn't quite right. Checking back to week 30 [1], which definitely fits with the sole attack being NAF-targeted:

In week 31, Tougeir doesn't attack Lahua, which can only be explained on a classic-to-NAF model if there'd been a switch to NAF before this point, which wasn't predicted
In week 33, it needs BV-Y b2 to defer and switch to NAF immediately, despite having only one target, otherwise it should have been the 5th Alert
In week 36, Liu Huang should have been able to use the 5th attack to go for HIP 21386 but didn't. It needs to get HIP 8525 versus BD+77 queued but deferred to block it, but the switch to NAF must already have occurred at this point in the classic sequencing.
In week 38, Daruwach attacked HIP 3006 rather than ZE-A c8 (which is the classical expectation) but Ardhri, AV-Y b3 and Sambaho made NAF attacks and Ardhri and Sambaho were earlier in the classic list

It does seem like some way to mix both targeting methods is needed, and some sort of conflict between the two seems the most obvious way to explain dropped alerts, but this doesn't seem to be it either.

[1] Prior to week 30, something different is definitely going on, resembling much more the old "lost Alerts" seen at Hadad and Thor and never really explained then either.
 
Working on a thing to help with rapid testing here - a browser page which loads months of data, tests a bunch of schemes and shows them against the real alerts.
Zoomed out a lot just to fit my screen height, it looks like this for now-
schemes.png


Name highlights are the alerts, test columns are standard followed by pure NAF (no defer/switch rules yet).
The page is rebuilt on demand by reading INTRA target data dumps (provided) and running them through schemes implemented in JS to mark the targets.

The idea is for the whole thing to be downloaded, the small static HTML + scripts + data.
That way you can change the scheme code then refresh to see the impact.
Main annoyance is that you need a local HTTP service for it, only because browsers block data-fetching over file:// but not over http://.

The scheme interface is handed a full target list (including some marked as prevented or cooldown), per maelstrom lists and a callback which marks a target when called.
That should allow for testing special ideas with cross maelstrom interactions, responding to heavy damage, doing something different at Oya, etc.

All lists are shallow copies so that the schemes are allowed to sort, splice etc as long as the callback gets the called shots in the end.
This is the exact code for both those schemes in the screenshot, not much to it at all-
JavaScript:
function scheme_standard(targets, maelstroms, callback)
{
    for (var mname in maelstroms)
    {
        var n = 0;
        var a_used = [];
        var b_hit  = [];
        
        for (var tgt of maelstroms[mname])
        {
            if (tgt.evict || !tgt.elig) continue;
            if (a_used.includes(tgt.a.addr)) continue;
            if (b_hit.includes(tgt.b.addr)) continue;
            a_used.push(tgt.a.addr);
            b_hit.push(tgt.b.addr);
            
            callback(tgt);
            if ((n += 1) >= 5) break;
        }
    }
}

function naf_sort(list)
{
    list.sort((tgt_i, tgt_j) =>
    {
        // For different attackers, put near attacker first
        if (tgt_i.a.addr!=tgt_j.a.addr) return tgt_i.a.dist-tgt_j.a.dist;
        // For same attacker, put far target first
        else return tgt_j.b.dist-tgt_i.b.dist;
    });
}
function scheme_naf(targets, maelstroms, callback)
{
    // For pure NAF just do the NAF sort then use standard targeting
    Object.values(maelstroms).forEach(naf_sort);
    scheme_standard(targets, maelstroms, callback);
}


const schemes = {'standard':scheme_standard, 'naf':scheme_naf};
 
Very useful!

It's certainly easy to see on this how the standard model has essentially worked perfectly - minor blip at Indra in week 31 aside - and yet ends up so completely wrong at Oya ... where NAF isn't the answer either but is at least >50% right most of the time.
 
Thanks!
I'm trying to get the main couple of non-standard schemes as good as they'll be, then clean things up a bit and hand out a download probably Wednesday evening.
Both are agreed on using the NAF as a response, differences are in the triggers and target substitutions.
For now I've used the names "crowd NAF" for your idea of switching when a system is firing into a crowd, and "NOC NAF" for going by these coordinate conflicts.


Starting with NOC NAF - a couple of small tweaks gives this an unbelievably good match.
The unbelievable part is how such a weird and generic switch condition makes almost no mistakes across all the other maelstroms!
The only (recent) non Oya problem is cycle 31 Indra choosing Arietis Sector DQ-Y c18, same as standard targets.

Tweak 1 from here-
At any given Maelstrom, let the coordinates of each target system use the Maelstrom as the spatial origin.
If there are any targets for which any one ordinate of the three coordinates equals the negative of any for another target, call it a Negative Ordinate Conflict (NOC).
Any-to-any here was causing an unavoidable problem at Hadad in cycle 33, but changing this to exclude x-to-x, y-to-y and z-to-z worked wonders!
Apparently the conflicts need to be between different dimensions 😖

Tweak 2 from here-
Incidentally, including into the list the systems which are in respite has a positive effect for the NOC and NAF approach! Week 33 then works, and weeks 34–38 are unaffected, although week 39 still maintains an unlikely insistance that everything will be normal this time.
Amazingly that did improve 33 by avoiding a wrong prediction at HIP 21386, and without harming 34-38 in the process, although it was still choosing Aowicha over HIP 11111.
Allowing ineligible targets also causes quite a few mistakes elsewhere so I went with eligible only, sacrifice Oya 33 for now in return for everywhere else all the time (except Indra 31).
The standard targets prediction also looks right either way - there simply isn't the NOCs to trigger anything else so I presume that'll be the INIV guess this time (Lahua, ZE-A c8, BD, 21386, AF-A c22).
Looks like the most it has is FB-X b1-1 vs Bumbo as a possible NOC, but the initial targets don't reach as far as Bumbo and FB-X is offline this week anyway.


The crowd NAF needed close attention to your week 34 breakdown, that one example packs a lot of information for anyone scripting it!
Main tweak/clarification it needed was from here-
if you reach an attack from a control system which could also attack a further target, defer the attack and switch to NAF targeting
This needed to be "further inhab target" to get Oya 34 working, otherwise AF-A c9 decides it also likes the look of AF-A c21 and triggers NAF early rather than hitting DQ-Y b1.
That's then pretty good, it clears up a few similar cases and leaves 34, 35, 37 working.

36 has a problem though - it predicts 5 attacks, the extra being Liu Huang vs HIP 21386.
That happened because it deferred Daruwach vs HIP 3006 but resolved it later with Daruwach vs Aowicha.
I then tried it with only getting 5 attacks if the exact deferred attack gets used, but that broke 34 because Daruwach takes the place of HIP 10778.

38 also had a few problems, the root cause being how it goes for Ardhri vs Cephei Sector AV-Y b2 normally because further targets are unpop (by my earlier tweak).
I don't mind trying to make it allow further unpop targets when some other primary attackers are around to give them a place on the usual Narwhal list - not now though!
Smaller scheme corrections can be done tomorrow if I made a mess of it, though I'll focus more on making something downloadable :D


View of crowd NAF and NOC NAF together (no standard targets, although the alerts mostly match those anyway)-
schemes2.png
 
Yes - I'm fairly sure that crowd NAF is wrong: a lot of the times it works, plain NAF would do almost as well, and the changes needed to get 34 to work don't follow well into other weeks. Epicycles, perhaps.

Conversely, HIP 13179's attack on DQ-Y b1 in week 37 can't be easily explained by any simple NAF model.
 
Okay, new toys incoming-

The base URL is at https://dev.iniv.space/schemes/
This is only really useful for seeing how it's supposed to load / checking that a browser can load it.
It just has my last used tests and settings there with no way to affect them, not much of a sandbox.

More useful download URL is at https://dev.iniv.space/schemes/schemes.zip
It's the same thing, just easier to grab than using browser inspect to get each file.
As before it loads the data dynamically and only gets past browser security if you use a local HTTP daemon.

The main things to care about are-
schemes.js, where the actual logic is, and the definition at the bottom which says what to show
interface.js, just to read it and see how a targeting scheme should use the command object provided to it
(for example) data/cycle30.json, or any one of the cycle data files, where scrolling past the attacks will show you the schema for a target entry

A few notes are-
Target entries are flattened to be one per attacker/target pair, where there may be more further down with alternative targets/attackers (no useful arrays with the alternatives yet).
The names "a" and "b" mean A versus B, attacker and target.
The data files are totally static with nothing updating them automatically - cycle 39 is a recent dump but will need regenerating tomorrow.
Schemes now assume they are run once per maelstrom where the main target list given in the function call is only for that maelstrom, although you can still find the full list via the command interface.
A scheme can modify any of the lists given to it, but ideally not the A or B system objects - those are shared across schemes for now (with a flag reset in between though).

It's not much but we'll definitely be using that for playing what-if and seeing if it breaks a load of previous cases!
 
Yes - I'm fairly sure that crowd NAF is wrong: a lot of the times it works, plain NAF would do almost as well, and the changes needed to get 34 to work don't follow well into other weeks. Epicycles, perhaps.
Conversely, HIP 13179's attack on DQ-Y b1 in week 37 can't be easily explained by any simple NAF model.

Thank you ever so much for taking the time to spot the nearest-attacks-farthest patterns, though! Even if the finer details remain a bit elusive and it takes a bit more changes of perspective to discover when to use that pattern and what to do with those intermediate systems, its success is clear, and I see it as the path to perfecting one of the most valuable analyses we are lucky enough to have provided for us.
 
Updated end-of-cycle predictions.

Leigong loses an Alert
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Arietis Sector KM-W d1-9320.92522Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-2; Arietis Sector KM-W d1-94; No0.9
Pathamon22.06422HIP 7277; Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56; Yes0.5
Jementi25.00711Arietis Sector NX-U c2-19; Yes0.9
Hyades Sector NT-I b9-231.11911Hyades Sector NT-I b9-4; No-0.2

Substantial recaptures at Indra but not changing the top 5 this week

Canaharvas off the menu at Cocijo
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-620.03411Mapon; No1
HIP 3871820.76511Mahlina; No0.9
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-023.09022Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; No0.5
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-323.19011Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; No0.5
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-6923.67222Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109; Yes0.1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-723.87811Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; No0.7
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-424.16222HIP 36901; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0; No0.9
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-224.32911Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2; No0.5
Paitra24.88066Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3; etcYes0.7
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-425.04411Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106; No0.5
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-125.32511Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69; No0.1
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-225.94722Kurumanit; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; Yes0.4
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-11526.09711Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-4; No-0.1
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-526.82511Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-4; No0
Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-127.06111Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-6; No-0.5
Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-2227.35933Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22; No0.7
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-527.61366Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1; Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22; etcNo0.7

Isla off the menu at Raijin - it was only a reserve this week but it'll help in future weeks
 
As expected, 100% accuracy continues outside Oya for the classic model (which gets just 20% this week).

At Oya, there are four Alerts, which are the first four predicted by a basic NAF model. HIP 21386 would have been the fifth; that cluster continues to avoid attacking, and HIP 8525 also doesn't attack.
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Lahua19.36311Tougeir; Yes0.9
Muchihiks19.56110.2Tougeir; Yes0.9
Cephei Sector ZE-A c819.89611HIP 10778;No-0.4
BD+77 8420.16611HIP 8525;Yes0.9
HIP 2138620.50922Liu Huang; Akbakara; No0.7
Cephei Sector AF-A c2221.18833Niu Yun (9.908 LY); Warnones; HIP 13179;No0.5
Cephei Sector CV-Y b122.03910.2Tougeir; No0.9
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b222.14910.2HIP 8525;No0.5
Bumbo22.41610.2HIP 8525; Yes0.9
Jeng23.03810.2Tougeir; Yes0.5
HIP 242224.00910.2HIP 8525; Yes0.5
HIP 1111124.11811HIP 13179;Yes0.6
Poqomathi24.13610.2HIP 8525; Yes0.6
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b624.95310.2HIP 8525;No0.9
Gliese 305025.57910.2HIP 8525;No0.6
 
Narwhal Nose report generated 31 August

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts, with a variable number of reserve targets shown depending on confidence levels. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them.

Table key
Name
: Name of system considered at threat of Alert.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Controls: The number of Controls which can theoretically attack this system this week.
Confidence: The confidence that any Control can attack this system this week. Numbers under 1 should be treated as increasingly unlikely, while numbers above 2 are almost certain within the constraints of the model.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a barnacle matrix are bold.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Advance: The approximate direction of the Alert relative to the Maelstrom. +1=towards Sol, -1=away from Sol, 0=perpendicular to Sol

Slight methodology change this week: since everywhere but Oya still seems to be consistently explained by the standard model, the size of the displayed reserve list has been reduced for the other Maelstroms back to a more conventional level. Full lists are available from other sources if a large attack is planned, but it keeps the post size down.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis
Read 41 control systems and 953 targets.
Total connected: 38
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-411.71637476
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b016.57010439
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-118.06744634


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Hyades Sector EB-N b7-014.37833Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4; Trianguli Sector CA-A c22; Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4; No0.5
HIP 2359318.93022Trianguli Sector CA-A c22; Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4;No0.6
Hyades Sector EG-N b7-219.97011Hyades Sector EG-N b7-1; No0.1
Hyades Sector QN-T c3-1321.39211Hyades Sector QN-T c3-12;No-0.7
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-222.57244Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-1; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; 5 Mu Leporis; etcNo-0.9
Hyades Sector KH-L b8-022.76011Hyades Sector FB-N b7-2;No0.3
Hyades Sector PN-T c3-722.90333Ixbalan; Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; Hyades Sector GW-W d1-99;No-0.8
Hyades Sector QN-T c3-1122.99133Hyades Sector DQ-O b6-3; HIP 24834; Hyades Sector CV-O b6-5; No-1
5 additional targets not listed, 13 total
Mostly a fairly light week at Taranis, as more inner uninhabited systems become available to target.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 50 control systems and 944 targets.
Total connected: 39
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Hyades Sector GR-W d1-9316.95933786
Hyades Sector GH-M b7-119.61536885
Hyades Sector GH-M b7-219.92191789
Hyades Sector GH-M b7-020.74929404
Hyades Sector FH-M b7-221.17212292
Hyades Sector JN-K b8-221.95756739
HIP 846723.45403583
Hyades Sector JN-K b8-023.97095003
Hyades Sector LI-K b8-024.00679429
Ceti Sector BQ-Y b430.13371891
Hyades Sector NT-I b9-431.15324083


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Arietis Sector FG-Y d6618.06822HIP 9643; Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1;No0.1
Arietis Sector XE-R b4-226.96122Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-0; HIP 9137;No-0.6
Arietis Sector KM-W c1-1627.16111HIP 9137;No-0.7
No further targets possible
Leigong starts the week with just three Alerts possible and might not keep all of those.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 126 control systems and 866 targets.
Total connected: 126

TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
HIP 2048521.4368863 Tauri; 71 Tauri; HIP 20916; etcYes1
HIP 2089923.0867771 Tauri; HIP 20916; HIP 20577; etcYes1
HIP 2049123.34166HIP 19934 (10.022 LY); HIP 20480; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; etcYes0.4
HIP 2094823.54255HIP 20916; HIP 20577; HR 1354; etcYes1
HIP 2005623.67733HIP 20577; HR 1354; HIP 20679;Yes1
HIP 2074124.47844HR 1354 (10.023 LY); HIP 20679; HIP 21261; etcYes1
HIP 1975724.52044HIP 20419; Scythia; Hyades Sector TO-Q b5-2; etcYes0.1
56 additional targets not listed, 63 total
Indra keeps up the pressure on inhabited systems this week.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 28 control systems and 967 targets.
Total connected: 25
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Tougeir16.22455941
Liu Huang17.75687587
Akbakara18.17006789


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Cephei Sector WO-A b415.39522Cephei Sector WO-A b3; Lyncis Sector KX-U c2-16;No-0.9
Cephei Sector BV-Y b215.98922Liu Huang; Akbakara; No0.5
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b117.75022Cephei Sector AF-A c9; HIP 8525; No0.8
Cephei Sector AV-Y b218.34622Ardhri; Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;No-0.2
HIP 404118.52821.2Ardhri (9.927 LY); Sambaho;No0.3
BD+77 8420.16611HIP 8525;Yes0.9
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-120.26111Kanus;No0.6
Gliese 903520.49411Daruwach;Yes-0.5
HIP 2138620.50921.2Liu Huang; Akbakara; No0.7
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b222.14910.2HIP 8525;No0.5
Bumbo22.41610.2HIP 8525; Yes0.9
Aowicha23.76910.2Daruwach; Yes-0.3
HIP 242224.00910.2HIP 8525; Yes0.5
Poqomathi24.13610.2HIP 8525; Yes0.6
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b624.95310.2HIP 8525;No0.9
Gliese 305025.57910.2HIP 8525;No0.6
No further targets possible
Using the Nearest-Attacks-Furthest model predicts the following attack order:
1) WO-A b3 attacks WO-A b4
2) Kanus attacks FB-X b1-1
3) Ardhri attacks HIP 4041
4) AV-Y b3 attacks AV-Y b2
5) If there's a fifth attack, AF-A c9 attacks DQ-Y b1

There's some room for confusion here in that while HIP 4041 and AV-Y b2 are both likely to be attacked (even the classic model predicts that) ... there are three ways the control systems in that area could do it, which might lead to some confusion next week as it might be either Sambaho or AV-Y b3 (or much less likely but possible Ardhri) which is available, depending on which order those two systems were selected for attack. It's possible that we can use that to get some further information. NAF predicts Sambaho isn't used, while classic predicts AV-Y b3 isn't used

There's also a new factor that BV-Y b2 has come off cooldown, and so the Liu Huang/Akbakara cluster now has two potential targets rather than one, which moves them substantially up the classic priority list. If there's still some classic prioritisation involved, then that could shake things up and maybe get us some new information.


-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
After recaptures, read 93 control systems (94 originally) and 901 targets.
Total connected: 90
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-10623.03364557
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-224.23140798
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-225.80003104


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-519.03411Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3;No0.8
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-1621.65522Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143; Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0;No0.7
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-10521.68111Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106; No0.7
Vucumatha23.09822Kurumanit; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-13; Yes0.8
Canaharvas23.54811Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-13;Yes0.9
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-723.87811Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; No0.7
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-424.16222HIP 36901; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-0; No0.9
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-224.32911Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2;No0.5
Paitra24.88066Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-3; etcYes0.7
17 additional targets not listed, 26 total
Cocijo coming round for an alternative route into Canaharvas this time, but the rounds of recaptures are starting to show a bit of strain in its targeting as the total perimeter is down to just 26 systems.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 71 control systems and 924 targets.
Total connected: 64
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Rajuarpai11.4695589
Chanyaya16.10879151
HIP 1989416.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-1417.71585625
HIP 2002419.46077284
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-121.81126877
HIP 1885724.61621433


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-421.03944Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-2; Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-3; etcNo0.5
Col 285 Sector TH-C b13-322.34611Vaipacnali;No0.5
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-122.99111Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2;No0.7
Unktety25.35711HIP 19198;Yes1
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-326.12211Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5;No0.5
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-8129.90611Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-0;No-0.1
No further targets possible
Short list at Thor as it stays fairly close-in, but can for now get the full 5.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 119 control systems and 876 targets.
Total connected: 118
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Hosan27.87701436


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Balak23.02477Kaurukat; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; HIP 113785; etcYes0.6
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-223.77033Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4; Nibelaako; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-0; No0.1
HIP 11654224.01922Chnemine; Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1; No-0.1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-224.38377Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; etcNo0.6
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-424.56566HIP 112475; Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-3; Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-2; etcNo-0.6
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-11024.57922Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6; No-0.5
HIP 11108124.7031212Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2; etcNo0.2
58 additional targets not listed, 65 total
Nothing unusual at Raijin this week

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 64 control systems and 930 targets.
Total connected: 63
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-324.11759116


TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-1017.36944Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-0; HIP 30502; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; etcNo0.9
Bi Dhorora18.46611Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0;Yes0.3
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-1620.41833Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14; HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; No-0.7
Vogulu20.72822Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4;Yes0.7
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-420.75222Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0; No0.2
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2921.25455Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; etcNo-0.4
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-021.38811Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78;No-0.8
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-521.48211Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; No-0.6
14 additional targets not listed, 22 total
Also fairly normal at Hadad



Code:
Col 285 Sector CA-P c6-16:2
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Taranis
Hupang:1
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b0:1
Trianguli Sector BA-A d85:1
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-4:1
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-0:1
-- Leigong
Arietis Sector BQ-P b5-2:1
HIP 7277:1
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-19:1
Hyades Sector NT-I b9-4:1
-- Indra
HIP 19098:1
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4:1
64 Tauri:1
Obamumbo:1
Hyadum I:1
-- Oya
Tougeir:1
HIP 10778:1
Niu Yun:1
HIP 13179:1
-- Cocijo
Mapon:1
Mahlina:1
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17:1
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1:1
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1:1
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-18:1
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14:1
-- Raijin
Snoqui:1
HIP 115162:1
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5:1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7:1
-- Hadad
Montioch:1
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-1:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-7:1
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3:1
HIP 31648:1
 
Merely out of curiosity - and I could be reading the post of potential targets wrong - but HIP 19600 is shown on overwatch as one of Thor’s alerts this week, yet not here. Anything to be seen there? Assuming the page is accurate, I haven’t checked that in-game.

(I guess they really want the Dedicant’s wreck back.)
 
https://forums.frontier.co.uk/threads/analysing-the-thargoid-simulation.611382/post-10205129 (prediction 24 August for attacks on 31 August) predicted HIP 19600 as an attack and it's happened, so that seems in order.

For this week (predictions 31 August onwards for attacks on 6 September) https://dcoh.watch/alert-predictions seems to have the same predictions as I do for everywhere except Oya (and the same "standard model" predictions at Oya, it's just that I'm pretty sure that's not what's going to happen) though that will diverge a bit during the week as they update their prediction live as recaptures come in and I don't tend to bother with that.
 
One thing I tried today was looking at weeks 30 onward from a NAF perspective - so rather than sorting the attacks by nearest target, sorting them by nearest control.

The pattern there is interesting:
- the first three NAF attacks have always occurred exactly as expected (week 30 which only had one perimeter control excepted, obviously)
- the fourth attack almost always occurs as expected, but can occasionally happen from a more distant control, and once didn't attack the furthest possible target
- if the fifth attack occurs at all, and it usually doesn't, it often doesn't attack the furthest possible target

Where the fourth or fifth attacks are anomalous, they always attack a nearer target to the Titan than default (by definition they must if from the same control, but if a control is skipped, also than the "normal" 4th or 5th attacker or any other skipped intermediates would have found). Where the fifth attack does not occur, generally all remaining targets are (by Oya's standards) relatively distant from the Maelstrom at 20 LY or more.

That makes me wonder: is what we're seeing attempted NAF, but with a different budgetary arrangement to the classic model with somewhat different costs for different targets, and more distant targets being a bit more expensive. Towards the 4th and 5th attacks, if a Control doesn't have the budget for its furthest target, maybe it can reach one closer in ... or occasionally, maybe a more distant control has a suitable target. Very often, the Maelstrom runs out of budget for its fifth attack and has to stick at four.

Potential implications:
- for this week, a fifth attack feels very likely, as all the targets are relatively close in, especially the 5th.
- in future weeks where the 5th control is Liu Huang, the new availability of BV-Y b2 might let them go for it sometimes in situations where HIP 21386 (or BD+77 from HIP 8525) wouldn't fit within the budget.

I haven't had time to try different budgetary models - a very simple one based purely on the cumulative distance to the Titan doesn't work - but I thought I'd put the possibility out there as in principle it could allow a relatively simple and efficient explanation for what we're seeing, and others may have better guesses at budget metrics to try.
 
Had some more ideas, one of which could work with the idea of the budget changing along with the algorithm (upon some mystery trigger happening).
Discussing Oya while securing Leigong's shot at HIP 9016 earlier, the big problem was finding anything which happens at Oya and not others, let alone also finds the right place to switch from normal to NAF (that leads into the distance budget idea as a fix).
The whole NOC thing aces the 1st part of isolating Oya (still amazed how Aleksandra found it) but isn't quite consistent enough at the 2nd.
FWIW another tweak has it working everywhere from 34 onwards, and that still/also predicts top 5 for Oya 40.

So a couple weeks ago I met the Hutton crew at ECM, and the topic of sectors/cubes came up while speaking with Chix.
He recommended "Creating a Galaxy with Dr Anthony Ross" where this part spoke my language:
body_address.png

That BodyAddress isn't the same as a SystemAddress and I couldn't find any SystemAddress breakdown, but I compared some addresses and figured it out.
Decoding some Oya targets, it looks like the ones in cube layer d sort of match the ones which trigger problems.
Layer c could increase the chance of a problem, though Lahua (b) also looks like a problem, unless it just gets lucky and HIP 3006 (d) triggers first.
Layer d has Gliese 3050, Gliese 9843, HIP 3006, HIP 21386.
Layer c has HIP 2422, HIP 4041, Aowicha, HIP 11111, BD+77 84, also AF-A c22 and ZE-A c8 of course.

Ideas-
Could cube layer change the alert cost? (+ only at Oya?)
Can sector coords cause problems? (Layer d targets are all 623x 512y 300z, maybe 2^9 y is bad? Also hits Cocijo though...)
Something to do with the sector coords halving/doubling between layers?

SystemAddress reference-
3 LSBs are the cube layer with 0=a, 1=b... 7=h.
Next LSBs are XYZ together but with variable length - for layer a it's the full (14+13+14) above but each layer loses 1 bit from each XYZ, e.g. layer d is (11+10+11) bits.
Remainder after shifting all that away is the ID within sector (guessing that gives a full proc gen XYZ, couldn't see any patterns with that).
Annoyingly the browser test environment is stuck with JS not bit-shifting properly - need to replace >>3 with /8 😖
 
A set of rules which seems to work for week 30 onwards (at Oya only, of course [1]) is:

1) target using NAF for the first three attacks (prioritising inhabited over uninhabited, then distance from Titan)

Something like this
2) if the first attack came from WO-A b3 [2], the fourth and fifth attacks must come from a control at least ~15 LY out, and the fourth attack either targets the closest system if there are choices or must target a system within ~20 LY.

Some rule which gives this as a consequence (could be this simple, could be a consequence of something else)
3) the fifth attack must not target a system more than ~20 LY out


This would predict that BV-Y b2 would be attacked rather than AV-Y b2 this week. (AV-Y b3 can't attack as 4th, so AF-A c9 to DQ-Y b2 takes that place, and then BV-Y b2 is the only one within 20 LY)

Even if it works this week I won't be particularly happy with it because rule 2 seems extremely arbitrary; it explains the anomalous fourth attacks in weeks 34 and 37 without actually explaining anything whatsoever.


[1] It's easy to come up with Oya-specific pre-conditions such as "switch to this targeting if Controls < 40" or "switch if most distant Control <20 LY" [3] to make it "work" everywhere else as well, of course. If we ever get a second Maelstrom entering this state we might learn rather more!
[2] So far, "fourth attack not by rule 1" and "WO-A b3 attacks" are completely correlated. Something less arbitrary-sounding like "if the first attacker is within 10 LY of the Titan" can be substituted without any way to disprove it yet but it doesn't seem helpful to do so. This week will be interesting to see if that pattern continues.
[3] Entertainingly, "switch if week number / 10 >= number of letters in Titan's name" will need Thor to behave normally this week to disprove, and doesn't feel less arbitrary than Rule 2 above.
 
Looking a bit more, a more elegant budget-based way to express those rules.
- Oya will attack using NAF, prioritising inhabited over uninhabited
- in addition to the usual budget constraint (5 systems max) it has 4 "shell" points.
- it uses a shell point every time a system attacks a system outside the same 5 LY shell (though no extra for crossing multiple shells)
- it uses an additional shell point if the attacker is within 10 LY of the Titan (still a bit arbitrary but WO-A b3 weeks so far have been significantly different)

The WO-A b3 fix still isn't great but it feels less arbitrary and therefore more testable than the previous post, which I think gives us the following model predictions for Thursday.

TargetNearest Target First (classic)Nearest-Attacks-FurthestNAF + Shell BudgetRevised NOC
Cephei Sector WO-A b4111 [2 shell points]1
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2252
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b135 (or skipped?)43
Cephei Sector AV-Y b2444
HIP 4041533 [1 shell point]5
BD+77 84
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-122 [1 shell point]
Gliese 9035
HIP 21386
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2
Bumbo
Aowicha
HIP 2422
Poqomathi
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6
Gliese 3050
NOTESArdhri and Sambaho usedArdhri and AV-Y b3 usedOnly Ardhri usedArdhri and Sambaho used?
 
The shell performs pretty well-
oya_27_40.png


As a standalone idea the inhab priority tends to help NAF responses in general - 32 is a mystery otherwise with Muncheim and Poqomathi.
Going back to 27 (the "hurricane") it also catches one of those systems.
38 is actually VERY close to succeeding, if ZE-A c8 (19.9) was a tiny bit further out then Daruwach would lack a shell point and hit HIP 3006 instead.

May examine 35 later - for now I've updated the archive with final 39 data, present 40 data, 27-29 as extra, and a (attempted) shell NAF function.
Speaking of the used attackers, one problem with that test is the version of events in the data only covers the nearest attackers being used.
I think that matches most schemes but perhaps not shell NAF if a closer attacker runs out of shell points...
 
38 is actually VERY close to succeeding, if ZE-A c8 (19.9) was a tiny bit further out then Daruwach would lack a shell point and hit HIP 3006 instead.
Yes - the catch is that in week 34 in similar circumstances Daruwach did hit ZE-A c8 rather than HIP 3006 (or possibly even the more distant Gliese 9035 rather than HIP 3006, depending on what order things happened in and what HIP 10778 did) so just tweaking the boundaries doesn't help.

35 I don't see an obvious fix for - HIP 3006 is already a source of confusion, but Tougeir should at least be able to attack Lahua or Muchihiks as well and there doesn't seem to be a non-arbitrary way to deal with that here.

It might be possible to fix some of it with a more fine-grained budgeting model: Week 38 has a much higher total distance before Daruwach's 5th attack than Week 34 does, which could explain Daruwach pulling back even further; but that still doesn't explain HIP 4041 over HIP 3006 in week 35 - it's the third attack so there should be plenty of budget, the fourth attack does go quite a way out, the difference in distance between the two is tiny.

Well, back to the drawing board.
 
Updates for the end of the week:

Leigong loses most of its attacks again
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Arietis Sector FG-Y d6618.06822HIP 9643; Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1;No0.1

Cocijo is again kept away from Canaharvas (and is running pretty short on general perimeter now)
TargetDistanceControlsConfidenceAttackersInhabited?Advance
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-519.03411Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3;No0.8
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-1621.65522Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143; Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-0;No0.7
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-10521.68111Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106; No0.7
Vucumatha23.09811Kurumanit;Yes0.8
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-723.87811Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; No0.7
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-424.16211HIP 36901;No0.9
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-224.32911Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-2;No0.5
Paitra24.88022Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-5;Yes0.7
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-125.32511Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69;No0.1
7 additional targets not listed, 16 total

Recaptures at Indra and Raijin do not materially change the predictions for this cycle but certainly will change some things up in future cycles, and Taranis gets pushed back below the 40 Control mark.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Results: as expected, the classic model continues to hold at the seven Titans. At Oya:
TargetNearest Target First (classic)Nearest-Attacks-FurthestNAF + Shell BudgetRevised NOCACTUAL RESULT
Cephei Sector WO-A b4111 [2 shell points]1Yes
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2252Yes
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b135 (or skipped?)43Yes
Cephei Sector AV-Y b2444
HIP 4041533 [1 shell point]5
BD+77 84
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-122 [1 shell point]Yes
NOTESArdhri and Sambaho usedArdhri and AV-Y b3 usedOnly Ardhri usedArdhri and Sambaho used?None of Ardhri, AV-Y b3 or Sambaho used!
Classic and Revised NOC (same prediction): 60%
NAF: 60%
NAF+Shell: 80%
All failed to predict the loss of the fifth attack this week

(But note that NAF/NAF+Shell got lucky here: the omissions are from the middle of their predictions, so in so far as they're right, they're right for at least partly the wrong reasons)

The pattern that WO-A b4 weeks are weird continues; the underlying logic continues to be obscure.
 
Top Bottom