Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

One miss, not surprisingly, at Oya.
Poqomathi24.13617.920HIP 8525; (backtrack BD+77 84)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2)(backtrack Bumbo)(backtrack HIP 2422)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6)(backtrack Gliese 3050)Yes
Rather than going for Poqomathi, HIP 8525 goes for HIP 2422 (4th rather than 5th on the list, both inhabited)

Like Ixbalan, there seems to be some tendency for Controls with a lot of target options to not necessarily attack the furthest possible.

Looking way back to the 13th July when HIP 8525 last attacked, HIP 2422 was still in cooldown from an earlier defeated Alert, and BD+77 was in Recovery, so we don't have an exact precedent.

A rule that NAF attacks can't attack further than the fourth target would explain all weeks at HIP 8525 (and HIP 7338) and still allow Tougeir's attacks on Jeng without breaking anything else ... but isn't sufficient to explain Ixbalan which was consistently attacking target 2 of 3. HIP 2422 is inside the sphere already set by HIP 11111 ... but again, that doesn't explain Ixbalan where it was placing the furthest Alert for Taranis either way every time.

With Indra and Cocijo likely to be entering NAF mode more often, and having fairly densely connected areas, we might get a bit more data to work with soon.
 
Narwhal Nose report generated 2 November

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Name
: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a barnacle matrix are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

No model changes, though HIP 8525 adds to Ixbalan the evidence that "attacks furthest" isn't quite the right priority rule here. Without more data that'll just be something to highlight in cases where a Control in "outside" mode has lots of targets.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis
Read 14 control systems and 979 targets.
Total connected: 6
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Hupang9.168294126
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-29.739176685
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-49.890810129
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-111.21705245
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-011.64019504
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-411.71637476
HIP 2381612.26043879
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-013.25206352


Furthest Control: 13.252 LY
Furthest potential capture: 16.000 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
HIP 2567917.4029.739Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2; Yes
Njorog14.69910.109HIP 25654; Yes
HIP 2371618.43010.718Trianguli Sector BA-A d85; (backtrack Trianguli Sector CA-A c22)(backtrack Trianguli Sector FL-Y b4)(backtrack Trianguli Sector CA-A c14)(backtrack Trianguli Sector FL-Y b5)Yes
Hyades Sector HW-M b7-521.00812.260HIP 23816; No
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-116.91813.252Hyades Sector GB-N b7-0; No
Nominally four Alerts at Taranis this week (since the backtracks from BA-A d85 aren't usable) - that won't last through the planned attacks, but it will almost certainly get to play its two strongest. Most of the disconnected controls are in the Hupang cluster.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 16 control systems and 976 targets.
Total connected: 9
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
HIP 80339.279145384
Hyades Sector KN-K b8-211.92894818
Hyades Sector KN-K b8-012.62693364
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-2014.06437488
Obassi Osaw15.58175265
Hyades Sector KN-K b8-115.8547176
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-016.1731959


Furthest Control: 16.173 LY
Furthest potential capture: 22.647 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-1917.16414.064Arietis Sector NX-U c2-20; No
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-322.23614.417HIP 9180; No
Arietis Sector KM-W c1-1524.72515.102Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 (9.945 LY); No
Arietis Sector FG-Y d6618.06815.913HIP 9643;No
Arietis Sector MX-U c2-1823.50316.173Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0; (backtrack Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56)Yes
Again, four attacks since there's no usable backtracks placed. Note the extensive disconnection of half of Leigong from any active spires.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 61 control systems and 931 targets.
Total connected: 61

Furthest Control: 23.431 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Arietis Sector MM-V b2-117.41913.254Arietis Sector EQ-Y c18; HIP 20187; Gaezatorix;No
HIP 2226517.5069.798Hyades Sector RT-Q b5-3; HIP 21912; Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3; etcNo
HIP 2147518.34611.498HIP 21112; HIP 21179; HIP 21918; No
HIP 2039718.49415.035HIP 20187; Gaezatorix (9.952 LY); HIP 20419; etcNo
HIP 2071218.55411.332HR 1385; HIP 20350; HIP 20349; etcNo
86 Rho Tauri18.73411.82663 Tauri (9.973 LY); HIP 20916; HR 1358; No
Hyadum II18.97612.724HIP 20350; HIP 20916; HR 1354; etcNo
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-419.72912.757HIP 20349;No
HIP 2126120.24117.089HIP 20916; HR 1354; HIP 20679;Yes
77 Theta-1 Tauri20.62917.820HR 1354; HIP 20679; HR 1358; No
Indra should stay in internal mode this week, as it's on the inner part of its cooldown cycle and even the reserves here are a long way from the nominal edge. No inhabited targets, which is rare for it.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 25 control systems and 968 targets.
Total connected: 24
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Akbakara18.17006789


Furthest Control: 18.170 LY
Furthest potential capture: 21.188 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Cephei Sector WO-A b415.3958.517Cephei Sector WO-A b3; Lyncis Sector KX-U c2-16; HIP 10778;No
Cephei Sector BV-Y b215.98918.170Akbakara; No
---Control Sphere Edge-
Gliese 903520.49412.244HIP 10778;Yes
HIP 404118.52813.650Ardhri (9.927 LY); (backtrack Cephei Sector AV-Y b2)No
Cephei Sector AV-Y b218.34614.331Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;No
Aowicha23.76915.711Daruwach;Yes
A usable backtrack suggests five Alerts here, with potential to swap BV-Y b2 for Aowicha if the isolated Akbakara gets removed like Liu Huang was.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 57 control systems and 938 targets.
Total connected: 56
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-120.85255624


Furthest Control: 21.999 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-519.03417.824Mapon;No
---Control Sphere Edge-
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-625.23516.365Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-0)No
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-224.74616.621Ulche; (backtrack Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1)(backtrack Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-6)No
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-025.03817.735Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-7;No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-6923.67217.774Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; (backtrack Col 285 Sector QX-H b11-2)Yes
Paitra24.88018.193Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-22)(backtrack HIP 36901)(backtrack Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22)Yes
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-626.66018.572Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18; (backtrack Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0)(backtrack Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3)(backtrack Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2)(backtrack Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-19)No
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-628.19420.745HIP 38235; (backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4)(backtrack Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7)(backtrack Col 285 Sector CA-P c6-16)No
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-329.71220.772Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-2)No
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-225.94720.853Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; (backtrack 19 Puppis)Yes
Cocijo hits the edge early, but has usable backtracks.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 36 control systems and 957 targets.
Total connected: 32
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Rajuarpai11.4695589
Chanyaya16.10879151
HIP 1989416.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-1417.71585625


Furthest Control: 18.989 LY
Furthest potential capture: 26.493 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-018.59514.293Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-1; Dhang Tzela; No
---Control Sphere Edge-
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-421.03912.054Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1;No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-524.84216.109Chanyaya; No
HIP 1960020.31616.563Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1;No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-723.75616.706Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; (backtrack HIP 21125)No
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-422.21717.210Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5;No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-223.53418.083Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3;No
Doesn't have any early backtracks, so should also be held to 4 Alerts.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 79 control systems and 915 targets.
Total connected: 79

Furthest Control: 27.097 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-218.93514.246Alads; Chnemine; HIP 116351;No
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-919.75112.944Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-1; HIP 113535; No
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-021.21419.355Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; HIP 113535;No
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-822.04418.160Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6; Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-7;No
Nibelaako22.26319.988Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4; Yes
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-322.27416.575Kaurukat; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; HIP 113785;No
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-422.34916.077Sholintet; Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-13;No
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-722.51418.082Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; HIP 113785;No
Balak23.02418.811HIP 113785;Yes
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-023.21821.357Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2; Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; etcNo
Raijin for now avoiding the consequences hitting elsewhere, but like Indra has had a lot of uninhabited targets swapped in higher up the order.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 46 control systems and 948 targets.
Total connected: 44
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-112.11392052
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-417.57522893


Furthest Control: 24.118 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-1017.36914.349HIP 30502;No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-1620.41813.947Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14; HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-420.75217.346Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0; No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2921.25413.877Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; etcNo
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-021.38815.317Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78;No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-622.79217.395Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;No
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-222.85319.079Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0; No
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-122.86915.344HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; No
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-623.51524.118Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3; No
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-123.67419.276Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1;No
A couple of disconnected controls as a result of last week's cut



Code:
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Taranis
HR 1737:1
Hupang:1
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4:1
-- Leigong
HIP 8033:1
Hyades Sector KN-K b8-2:1
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0:1
HIP 10118:1
Hyades Sector KN-K b8-1:1
-- Indra
HIP 19098:1
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4:1
64 Tauri:1
HIP 20480:1
Hyadum I:1
-- Oya
Kanus:1
Niu Yun:1
HIP 13179:1
Cephei Sector AF-A c9:1
HIP 8525:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17:1
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1:1
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-2:1
-- Raijin
Snoqui:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0:1
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5:1
HIP 112823:1
HIP 115162:1
-- Hadad
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-1:1
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-7:1
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3:1
HIP 31648:1
 
If I may ask, has there been any further insight regarding attacks which occur beyond 10 light-years?

The reason for asking began with V mentioning yesterday that INTRA was doing something wrong at M. Indra; I thought to help discover what occurred, and found that it differs from the week 47 revision, where it has HIP 20890 still being attacked by HR 1354 rather than being guarded. Of course, its original week 47 was different with the cleared HIP 20679 not being an attacker of HIP 20890.

Looking backward, despite the targets matching there were attacker differences on the previous week—and the week before that—arriving eventually at week 41 where HR 1354 attacks HIP 20741 at 10.023 Ly, the lack of which propagates to report a wrong target six weeks later. I thought you may enjoy knowing a specific example where a strict version of events causes things to go awry, and the known-to-be-spurious behaviour actually makes a tangible difference!
 
Interesting - so HR 1354 definitely was the over-range attacker in week 41, then? I must have quietly assumed it was without picking up on the significance at the time... That would at least give a second case of "does occur", which might help narrow things down.

Most of the other examples - often at lower ranges - have turned out not to attack, at least where such has been provable.
 
Interesting - so HR 1354 definitely was the over-range attacker in week 41, then?

I stopped just a bit short of saying yes, and took a further look—the mismatches go all the way back to week 33, which had two long-range attackers and has deviated ever since! Week 32 is the latest which seems to match, although since week 33 there are around a half-dozen cases to consider, and I imagine it would be a bit presumptuous to suppose that any particular case definitely occurred.

I will leave that with V to try different combinations and find which are needed to explain the Alerts, although that may be unlikely at this point and it may remain a simple trivium that at least one of those long-range cases occurred somewhere.
 
For about the first time since we started having usable predictions, no material changes were expected as a result of this week's recaptures. All predictions [edit, except Cocijo] accurate this week.
 
Last edited:
I feel so terribly bad for this—one may need to review M. Cocijo and Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-6.

Additional: Given that Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-2 can only have been attacked by Ulche, it appears as if Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4 has attacked Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-1 instead.
 
Last edited:
Yes, good point - with them both being XT-Qs I must have skimmed over that.

Hmm. VN-H b11-4 doesn't attack, that makes VN-H b11-0 not a backtrack, so the backtrack Ulche places when attacking XT-Q c5-2 instead has to be used to get a 5th attack.

So the question is, why didn't VN-H b11-4 attack? The most likely explanation, given how many systems which were attacked last week it's next to, is that it was resting from attacking one of those, and one of last week's attacks was misattributed to one of the other nearby controls, possibly because of some complicated cascade like at Indra.

If you have a straightforward way to check for that sort of error, great - if not, we'll just have to see what happens next.
 
Narwhal Nose report generated 9 November

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Name
: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a barnacle matrix are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis
Read 13 control systems and 979 targets.
Total connected: 6
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Hupang9.168294126
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-29.739176685
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-49.890810129
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-111.21705245
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-011.64019504
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-411.71637476
HIP 2381612.26043879


Furthest Control: 12.302 LY
Furthest potential capture: 21.008 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
Trianguli Sector CA-A c2215.0338.625HR 1737;No
Modigi17.98711.640Hyades Sector FB-N b7-0; Yes
Hyades Sector EB-N b7-014.37811.716Hyades Sector BV-O b6-4; No
Very favourably, Taranis is placing two of its three Alerts from its peripheral controls, so if the recapture goes entirely according to plan this week, only one Alert will be placed - which means it is not critical to prevent an invasion at Njorog, provided that at least two of the four current Alerts are held off.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 16 control systems and 978 targets.
Total connected: 9
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
HIP 80339.279145384
Hyades Sector KN-K b8-211.92894818
Hyades Sector KN-K b8-012.62693364
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-2014.06437488
Obassi Osaw15.58175265
Hyades Sector KN-K b8-115.8547176
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-016.1731959


Furthest Control: 16.173 LY
Furthest potential capture: 24.725 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
Hyades Sector JN-K b8-119.75411.929Hyades Sector KN-K b8-2; No
HIP 913722.05914.720Arietis Sector YE-R b4-0; (backtrack Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-0)No
Arietis Sector MX-U c2-1823.50316.173Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0; (backtrack Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56)Yes
Leigong remains very short on perimeter, and could be held back a bit more.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 56 control systems and 937 targets.
Total connected: 56

Furthest Control: 23.431 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
71 Tauri15.0829.009HIP 20086 (9.925 LY); 63 Tauri; HIP 20350; etcNo
86 Rho Tauri18.73411.82663 Tauri (9.973 LY); HIP 20916; HR 1358; No
Hyadum II18.97612.724HIP 20350; 64 Tauri; Hyadum I; etcNo
79 b Tauri19.44414.040Hyadum I; HIP 20916; HR 1358; No
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-419.72912.757HIP 20349; HIP 20480;No
Scythia20.22717.090Gaezatorix; HIP 20419;Yes
HIP 2126120.24113.18664 Tauri; HIP 20916; HR 1354; etcYes
77 Theta-1 Tauri20.62917.089HIP 20916; HR 1354; HIP 20679; etcNo
70 Tauri20.96317.820HR 1354; HIP 20679; HR 1358; Yes
HIP 2048521.43617.871HIP 20679; HR 1358; Yes
Still a very internal week at Indra, with no expectation of changes due to periphery events this time

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 25 control systems and 968 targets.
Total connected: 24
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Akbakara18.17006789


Furthest Control: 18.170 LY
Furthest potential capture: 18.528 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b117.75015.212HIP 13179; Cephei Sector AF-A c9; HIP 8525; No
---Control Sphere Edge-
HIP 733818.85312.495Kanus;Yes
Luggerates21.96214.713Sambaho; (backtrack HIP 3006)Yes
Aowicha23.76915.711Daruwach; (backtrack Cephei Sector ZE-A c8)Yes
Poqomathi24.13617.920HIP 8525; (backtrack BD+77 84)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2)(backtrack Bumbo)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6)(backtrack Gliese 3050)Yes
With those backtracks not being usable, Poqomathi (or wherever HIP 8525 would have gone!) looks safe this time.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 57 control systems and 937 targets.
Total connected: 56
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-120.85255624


Furthest Control: 21.999 LY
Furthest potential capture: 25.038 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-1518.4099.869Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-96;No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-1619.20517.688Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3;No
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-319.39513.304Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-7; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18;No
Kurumanit20.23720.853Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; Yes
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-520.30612.899Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; etcNo
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-420.30914.428Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18;No
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-421.19116.728Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3; HIP 38235;No
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-221.22218.572Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18;No
Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-021.41611.908Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-117; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-144; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-137;No
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-1621.65516.153Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143; No
We may have some errors with which Controls are able to act at Cocijo, though this week has relatively few candidates on what should be an internal-only week, so might give some chance for that to straighten out.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 36 control systems and 958 targets.
Total connected: 32
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Rajuarpai11.4695589
Chanyaya16.10879151
HIP 1989416.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-1417.71585625


Furthest Control: 18.989 LY
Furthest potential capture: 24.842 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-822.75213.139Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96)No
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-021.77616.209HIP 19894; No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-723.75616.706Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; (backtrack HIP 21125)No
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-326.12217.210Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5; (backtrack Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4)No
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-422.21717.596Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-1)No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-223.53418.083Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3;No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-125.23418.984Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1;No
Thor's fourth attack gives it a usable backtrack to a fifth. Taking out NG-E b12-5 might prevent an fifth Alert.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 79 control systems and 915 targets.
Total connected: 79

Furthest Control: 27.097 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Chinas17.46216.077Sholintet; Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-13; Humarala (9.908 LY); etcYes
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-220.14815.816Marindhs; Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-3;No
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-820.34220.431HIP 113535; No
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-020.75611.551Mora; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-6; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-9; etcNo
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-221.37717.304Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-9; HIP 112475; Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-3; etcNo
Holvandalla21.47616.445Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etcYes
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-321.93519.747Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; etcNo
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-2022.02718.026Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115; No
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-122.02821.106Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5;No
Iduni22.03818.082Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115; Yes
Standard interior week at Raijin

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 45 control systems and 949 targets.
Total connected: 44
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-112.11392052


Furthest Control: 24.118 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-012.11311.644Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-0; Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-6; No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-1217.57113.132Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-2; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-218.16417.395Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3;No
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-018.84110.064Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-7; HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; No
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-521.48216.067Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-421.89215.344HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3; No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-622.79217.550Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;No
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-222.85319.079Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0; No
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-623.51524.118Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3; No
Col 285 Sector NR-B b14-123.67419.276Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1;No
And similarly, standard interior week at Hadad.



Code:
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Taranis
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-2:1
HIP 25654:1
Trianguli Sector BA-A d85:1
HIP 23816:1
-- Leigong
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-20:1
HIP 9180:1
Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3:1
HIP 9643:1
-- Indra
Arietis Sector EQ-Y c18:1
Hyades Sector RT-Q b5-3:1
HIP 21112:1
HIP 20187:1
HR 1385:1
-- Oya
Cephei Sector WO-A b3:1
Akbakara:1
HIP 10778:1
Ardhri:1
Cephei Sector AV-Y b3:1
-- Cocijo
Mapon:1
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4:1
Ulche:1
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-7:1
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1:1
Chanyaya:1
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1:1
-- Raijin
Alads:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-1:1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0:1
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4:1
-- Hadad
HIP 30502:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14:1
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4:1
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78:1
 
End of cycle updates:

Taranis down to a single attack:
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
Trianguli Sector CA-A c2215.0338.625HR 1737; No

Leigong loses one as well:
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
HIP 913722.05914.720Arietis Sector YE-R b4-0; (backtrack Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-0)No
Arietis Sector MX-U c2-1823.50316.173Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0; (backtrack Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56)Yes

Indra's main prediction not affected this time, though the control edge has moved a lot closer in, of course.
 
All correct, except at Thor.

HIP 19894 doesn't attack SM-C b13-0
The other four of the top five attacks appear to proceed normally, then the HIP 21125 backtrack is used by JA-G b11-1

This isn't explainable by the current theory even under data entry error conditions: the Rajuarpai sub-cluster only has two external targets (plus a third once HIP 20024 recovers)
- SM-C b13-0 can be attacked by Chanyaya, HIP 19894, and IG-O c6-14
- JG-O c6-5 (alerted last week) can be attacked by Chanyaya and IG-O c6-14 only (and presumed to be attacked by Chanyaya)

So HIP 19894 is closer in to Thor than most other controls (IG-O c6-14 is too far out if HIP 19894 passes, though), can't still be cooling down from an attack in the previous week, and apparently made this attack successfully 3 weeks ago (again, in a week where swapping that attack to IG-O c6-14 would have put it too far down the list)

Another reminder that our theory for outside attacks isn't quite complete.
 
Narwhal Nose report generated 16 November

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Name
: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a barnacle matrix are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Taranis
Read 7 control systems and 989 targets.
Total connected: 3
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
HR 17378.625056612
Hupang9.168294126
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-29.739176685
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-49.890810129


Furthest Control: 10.526 LY
Furthest potential capture: 15.033 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
Hyades Sector FB-N b7-315.4769.168Hupang; No
Hyades Sector BV-O b6-317.26610.526Hyades Sector BV-O b6-2;No
Taranis rapidly running out of systems and space.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 14 control systems and 982 targets.
Total connected: 9
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
HIP 80339.279145384
Hyades Sector KN-K b8-012.62693364
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-2014.06437488
Obassi Osaw15.58175265
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-016.1731959


Furthest Control: 16.173 LY
Furthest potential capture: 22.059 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
HIP 727717.3309.279HIP 8033; (backtrack Hyades Sector JN-K b8-3)Yes
Hyades Sector LX-U d2-9517.29912.627Hyades Sector KN-K b8-0; No
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-221.47014.417HIP 9180; (backtrack Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1)(backtrack Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-0)No
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-220.52014.458Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0; (backtrack Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-1)(backtrack Arietis Sector FG-Y d38)No
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-020.46815.102Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3; (backtrack Arietis Sector KM-W c1-14)No
Arietis Sector FG-Y d3819.59515.103HIP 10118;No
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-118.47615.164Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-3;No
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-117.03715.913HIP 9643;No
Backtracks early enough to let Leigong get its top 5 Alerts this week

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 48 control systems and 944 targets.
Total connected: 37
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
75 Tauri12.76477392
HIP 1909813.95811956
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-415.09711401
76 Tauri15.46350921
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-115.84982009
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-215.8593673
HIP 2117916.59951642
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-217.95964443
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-118.37212988
Hyades Sector JH-V c2-1318.59377626
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-319.51369211


Furthest Control: 21.143 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
HIP 2057717.80613.18664 Tauri; HIP 20916; HR 1354; etcYes
Obamumbo18.65514.788HIP 19263; Gaezatorix (9.996 LY);Yes
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-320.11513.958HIP 19098; No
Scythia20.22713.254Arietis Sector EQ-Y c18; HIP 20187; Gaezatorix; etcYes
HIP 2126120.24117.089HIP 20916; HR 1354; HIP 20679;Yes
77 Theta-1 Tauri20.62917.820HR 1354; HIP 20679;No
70 Tauri20.96317.871HIP 20679;Yes
---Control Sphere Edge-
HIP 1915721.65015.097Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4; Yes
HIP 2049123.34115.974HIP 19934 (10.022 LY);Yes
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-226.28616.450HIP 20480 (9.966 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1)(backtrack Arietis Sector JR-V b2-3)No
A substantial disconnected region has formed at Indra with last week's Spire recaptures, and the edge starts to get close to being relevant - though not quite yet.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 25 control systems and 970 targets.
Total connected: 24
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Akbakara18.17006789


Furthest Control: 18.170 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
Cephei Sector ZE-A c819.89612.244HIP 10778;No
Cephei Sector AF-A c2221.18812.692Niu Yun (9.908 LY);No
Cephei Sector AV-Y b621.33213.650Ardhri;No
Cephei Sector AV-Y b023.57514.331Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;No
HIP 1111124.11815.681Cephei Sector AF-A c9; (backtrack Cephei Sector AF-A c21)Yes
Poqomathi24.13617.920HIP 8525; (backtrack BD+77 84)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2)(backtrack Bumbo)(backtrack HIP 2422)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6)(backtrack Gliese 3050)Yes
HIP 2138620.50918.170Akbakara; No
None of the first four place backtracks, so Oya shouldn't place a fifth this time.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 57 control systems and 937 targets.
Total connected: 56
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-120.85255624


Furthest Control: 21.999 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-519.37616.621Ulche; Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4;No
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-620.03417.824Mapon;No
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-420.30914.428Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-6; etcNo
Mahlina21.14615.964Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17;Yes
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-421.19116.728Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3; HIP 38235;No
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-221.22218.193Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18;No
Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-021.41611.908Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-117; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-144; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-137;No
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-1621.65516.153Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143; No
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-221.76020.745HIP 38235;No
---Control Sphere Edge-
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-625.23516.365Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4;No
All looking fairly normal at Cocijo. Hopefully the last week has shaken out any residual data issues - although, with the oddity at Thor, that might not have been what happened two weeks ago.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 36 control systems and 958 targets.
Total connected: 32
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Rajuarpai11.4695589
Chanyaya16.10879151
HIP 1989416.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-1417.71585625


Furthest Control: 18.989 LY
Furthest potential capture: 26.122 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-322.64212.929Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-9 (10.015 LY);No
HIP 1807521.40513.208Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-11;Yes
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-122.64614.391Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2;No
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-221.23916.097Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-0;No
Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-025.39516.563Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1;No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-223.53418.083Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3;No
Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-225.82418.989Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-2;No
No backtracks, so only four attacks - there is an opportunity here to test if KB-O c6-3 is allowed for over-range attacks, though.
Another note here is that OG-E b12-2 should attack the spire system of OG-E b12-1: while this is within practicality to prevent, I suggest that we will learn more by allowing the attack to proceed to Alert.


-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 79 control systems and 915 targets.
Total connected: 79

Furthest Control: 27.097 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-119.03419.893Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; HIP 115162; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; etcNo
Nu Guang19.33011.760Snoqui;Yes
HIP 11636020.90216.841Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71; Yes
Vistnero21.00921.106Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Yes
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-421.13515.433HIP 112823; Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-3; No
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-621.18820.143HIP 115162;No
Holvandalla21.47616.445Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etcYes
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-321.93519.355Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; etcNo
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-2022.02718.026Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115; No
Iduni22.03818.082Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115; Yes
A normal week at Raijin too.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 45 control systems and 949 targets.
Total connected: 44
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-112.11392052


Furthest Control: 24.118 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-312.85312.114Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-1; No
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-218.31015.315Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-1; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-3120.04611.724Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; HIP 31648; etcNo
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-820.60715.317Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3;No
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-320.78314.577HIP 31648; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-5; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2; etcNo
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-420.98214.349HIP 30502; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-5; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2; etcNo
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-721.72315.882Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-0;No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-421.89215.344HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3; No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2822.15817.550Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;No
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-222.37218.869Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-6;No
Similarly nothing out of the ordinary expected at Hadad.
 
Last edited:
End of week updates

Taranis, of course, goes out of bounds of what we can reasonably predict based on past behaviour.
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
Worst case scenario within the scope of past behaviour: the initial auto-capture to 15 LY, invade to 20 LY attack is only guarded by an if (controls == 0) and can be - not very narratively - repeated.


Some adjustments at Leigong
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
HIP 727717.3309.279HIP 8033; (backtrack Hyades Sector JN-K b8-3)Yes
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-221.47014.417HIP 9180; (backtrack Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1)(backtrack Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-0)No
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-220.52014.458Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0; (backtrack Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-1)(backtrack Arietis Sector FG-Y d38)No
Arietis Sector KM-W c1-1424.50915.102Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3; No
Arietis Sector FG-Y d3819.59515.103HIP 10118;No
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-118.47615.164Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-3;No
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-020.46815.913HIP 9643;No
Note that the prediction for HIP 7277 here is based on inhabited targets getting priority - HIP 8033 can also hit the more distant JN-K b8-3 (and nothing else can) so that might be targeted instead.
With backtracks as they are, FG-Y d38 should also be skipped in favour of XJ-R b4-1 Edit: it's too early in the morning and I can't read my own tables properly


And Hadad is prevented from getting a second 12 LY Alert in a row
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-218.31015.315Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-1; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-2;No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-3120.04611.724Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; HIP 31648; etcNo
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-820.60715.317Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3;No
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-320.78314.577HIP 31648; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-5; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2; etcNo
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-420.98214.349HIP 30502; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-5; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2; etcNo
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-721.72315.882Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-0;No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-421.89215.344HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3; No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2822.15817.550Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;No
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-222.37218.869Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-6;No
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-222.85317.346Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0; No
 
Last edited:
With the over-range attack not going ahead at Thor, everything following that was as expected. I'll add that jump to the "not possible" list.

That means that Thor does Alert OG-E b12-1 for potential Matrix recapture.
 
Narwhal Nose report generated 23 November

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Name
: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a barnacle matrix are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

Taranis is for now not in scope for predictions. More information as it comes in...

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 12 control systems and 982 targets.
Total connected: 9
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
HIP 80339.279145384
Obassi Osaw15.58175265
Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-016.1731959


Furthest Control: 16.173 LY
Furthest potential capture: 24.509 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-020.46814.720Arietis Sector YE-R b4-0; (backtrack Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1)No
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-118.47615.164Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-3;No
Arietis Sector NX-U c2-1917.16415.582Obassi Osaw; No
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-322.23615.913HIP 9643; (backtrack Arietis Sector FG-Y d66)No
Arietis Sector MX-U c2-1924.03416.173Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0; (backtrack Hyades Sector JN-K b8-3)(backtrack Arietis Sector JM-W d1-56)No
MX-U c2-19 is a spire recapture attempt. With no usable backtracks, the default case has Leigong running out of Alerts before it can place it - but that could easily change, of course.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 48 control systems and 945 targets.
Total connected: 37
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
75 Tauri12.76477392
HIP 1909813.95811956
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-415.09711401
76 Tauri15.46350921
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-115.84982009
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-215.8593673
HIP 2117916.59951642
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-217.95964443
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-118.37212988
Hyades Sector JH-V c2-1318.59377626
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-319.51369211


Furthest Control: 21.143 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Arietis Sector MM-V b2-117.41915.035HIP 20187; Gaezatorix;No
HIP 2226517.5069.798Hyades Sector RT-Q b5-3; HIP 21912; Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3; etcNo
HIP 2147518.34611.498HIP 21112; HIP 21179; No
HIP 2039718.49414.040Hyadum I; Gaezatorix (9.952 LY); HIP 20419;No
HIP 2071218.55411.332HR 1385; HIP 20350; HIP 20349; etcNo
77 Theta-1 Tauri20.62911.82663 Tauri; HR 1354; HIP 20679;No
70 Tauri20.96317.820HR 1354; HIP 20679;Yes
---Control Sphere Edge-
HIP 1915721.65015.097Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4; Yes
HIP 2049123.34115.974HIP 19934 (10.022 LY);Yes
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-226.28616.450HIP 20480 (9.966 LY); (backtrack Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1)(backtrack Arietis Sector JR-V b2-3)No
Indra gets close to the boundary but isn't quite there yet.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 25 control systems and 970 targets.
Total connected: 24
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Akbakara18.17006789


Furthest Control: 18.170 LY
Furthest potential capture: 23.575 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Cephei Sector WO-A b415.3958.517Cephei Sector WO-A b3; Lyncis Sector KX-U c2-16;No
Cephei Sector BV-Y b215.98918.170Akbakara; No
---Control Sphere Edge-
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-120.26112.495Kanus;No
HIP 300618.93014.713Sambaho; (backtrack HIP 4041)No
HIP 1111124.11815.212HIP 13179; (backtrack Cephei Sector AF-A c21)Yes
Cephei Sector AF-A c2120.66915.681Cephei Sector AF-A c9;No
Gliese 903520.49415.711Daruwach;Yes
Poqomathi24.13617.920HIP 8525; (backtrack BD+77 84)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2)(backtrack Bumbo)(backtrack HIP 2422)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6)(backtrack Gliese 3050)Yes
The backtrack isn't placed until too late and the Sambaho one isn't usable, so only four Alerts expected here as well.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 57 control systems and 937 targets.
Total connected: 56
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-120.85255624


Furthest Control: 21.999 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-519.03417.688Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3;No
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-221.22218.193Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18;No
Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-021.41611.908Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-117; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-144; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-137;No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-5221.46516.216Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4; Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-7 (9.935 LY); etcNo
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-1621.65516.153Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143; No
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-221.76020.745HIP 38235;No
---Control Sphere Edge-
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-524.18114.622Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6)No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-13622.88315.249Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-92; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69)No
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-622.72315.670HIP 36809;No
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-625.23516.365Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-4; (backtrack Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-53)(backtrack Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-0)No
Cocijo also not far off the boundary.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 36 control systems and 959 targets.
Total connected: 32
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Rajuarpai11.4695589
Chanyaya16.10879151
HIP 1989416.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-1417.71585625


Furthest Control: 18.989 LY
Furthest potential capture: 25.395 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-018.59514.293Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-1; Dhang Tzela; No
---Control Sphere Edge-
Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-219.6319.871HIP 19091;No
HIP 2002419.46111.470Rajuarpai; Yes
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-421.03912.054Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1;No
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-9622.00013.139Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79)(backtrack Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0)No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-524.84216.109Chanyaya; No
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-020.92416.706Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; (backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-7)No
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-324.09417.210Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5;No
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-122.99117.596Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-0)No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-223.53418.083Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3; (backtrack Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-3)No
Thor has lots of targets but doesn't look like it will backtrack quickly enough to use them - another 4 Alert week expected.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 79 control systems and 915 targets.
Total connected: 79

Furthest Control: 27.097 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-218.93514.246Alads; Chnemine; HIP 116351;No
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-919.75112.944Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-1; HIP 113535; No
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-621.18820.143HIP 115162;No
Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-021.21419.355Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; HIP 113535;No
Holvandalla21.47616.445Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etcYes
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-321.93519.747Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; etcNo
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-2022.02718.026Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115; No
Iduni22.03818.082Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115; Yes
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-822.04418.160Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6; Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-7;No
Nibelaako22.26319.988Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4; Yes
Raijin gets another normal week

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 44 control systems and 950 targets.
Total connected: 44

Furthest Control: 24.118 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
HIP 2922611.0633.679HIP 30439; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-5; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-4; etcNo
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-1620.41813.947Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14; HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; No
Col 285 Sector OR-B b14-420.75217.346Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0; No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2921.25413.877Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;No
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-721.72315.882Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-0;No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-421.89215.344HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3; No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2822.15817.395Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;No
While at Hadad, there's not much to be done about that 11 LY Alert, as it's being placed by the central spire.
 
Changes due to recaptures:

Leigong loses all its Alerts this week

Oya
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Cephei Sector WO-A b415.3958.517Cephei Sector WO-A b3; Lyncis Sector KX-U c2-16;No
---Control Sphere Edge-
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-120.26112.495Kanus;No
HIP 300618.93014.713Sambaho; (backtrack HIP 4041)No
HIP 1111124.11815.212HIP 13179; (backtrack Cephei Sector AF-A c21)Yes
Cephei Sector AF-A c2120.66915.681Cephei Sector AF-A c9;No
Gliese 903520.49415.711Daruwach;Yes
Poqomathi24.13617.920HIP 8525; (backtrack BD+77 84)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b2)(backtrack Bumbo)(backtrack HIP 2422)(backtrack Cephei Sector DQ-Y b6)(backtrack Gliese 3050)Yes
Usable backtrack, so AF-A c21 should be attacked as the fifth
 
Narwhal Nose report generated 30 November

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target
: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

All predictions good last week. Back down to just four inhabited Alerts predicted for next week

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Leigong
Read 7 control systems and 990 targets.
Total connected: 3
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
HIP 80339.279145384
Arietis Sector ZE-R b4-39.933224316
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-014.45838587
HIP 1011815.10286992


Furthest Control: 15.103 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
Hyades Sector JN-K b8-317.8099.279HIP 8033; No
Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-322.23614.417HIP 9180; (backtrack Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-1)(backtrack Arietis Sector WJ-R b4-0)(backtrack HIP 9137)No
Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-118.47614.458Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-0; No
Arietis Sector KM-W c1-1524.72515.102Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 (9.945 LY); No
Only four alerts possible, so whatever is available will be used

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 47 control systems and 946 targets.
Total connected: 35
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
75 Tauri12.76477392
HIP 1909813.95811956
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-415.09711401
76 Tauri15.46350921
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-115.84982009
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-215.8593673
HIP 2117916.59951642
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-217.95964443
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-118.37212988
Hyades Sector JH-V c2-1318.59377626
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-319.51369211
Lei Hsini21.10781938


Furthest Control: 21.108 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
71 Tauri15.0829.009HIP 20086 (9.925 LY); 63 Tauri; HIP 20350; etcNo
86 Rho Tauri18.73411.82663 Tauri (9.973 LY); HIP 20916;No
Hyadum II18.97612.724HIP 20350; 64 Tauri; HIP 20916; etcNo
79 b Tauri19.44417.089HIP 20916;No
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-419.72912.757HIP 20349; HIP 20480;No
77 Theta-1 Tauri20.62913.18664 Tauri; HR 1354; HIP 20679;No
70 Tauri20.96317.820HR 1354; HIP 20679;Yes
---Control Sphere Edge-
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-522.14513.958HIP 19098; No
HIP 1915721.65015.097Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4; Yes
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-222.42815.46476 Tauri; No
The edge gets slightly closer at Indra this week, but still not close enough.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Oya
Read 24 control systems and 969 targets.
Total connected: 24

Furthest Control: 17.920 LY
Furthest potential capture: 20.669 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b117.75017.920HIP 8525; No
---Control Sphere Edge-
Gliese 903520.49412.244HIP 10778;Yes
HIP 404118.52813.650Ardhri (9.927 LY); (backtrack Cephei Sector AV-Y b2)No
Cephei Sector AV-Y b218.34614.331Cephei Sector AV-Y b3;No
Aowicha23.76915.711Daruwach;Yes
Usable backtrack so all five attacks should go through. Curiously, the first attack is an inside backtrack from HIP 8525, which might make for an interesting targeting shortage next week.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 57 control systems and 937 targets.
Total connected: 56
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-120.85255624


Furthest Control: 21.999 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-1518.4099.869Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-96; Mapon;No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-1619.20517.824Mapon;No
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-319.39513.304Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-7; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-18;No
Kurumanit20.23720.853Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1; Yes
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-520.30612.899Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-1; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-15; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-17; etcNo
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-821.24716.728Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3; No
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-221.76020.745HIP 38235;No
---Control Sphere Edge-
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-524.18114.622Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-6)No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-13622.88315.249Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-92; (backtrack Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69)No
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-622.72315.670HIP 36809;No
Nothing out of the ordinary here

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 36 control systems and 958 targets.
Total connected: 32
Disconnected Controls
SystemDistance
Rajuarpai11.4695589
Chanyaya16.10879151
HIP 1989416.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-1417.71585625


Furthest Control: 18.989 LY
Furthest potential capture: 21.039 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
---Control Sphere Edge-
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-822.75213.139Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79)(backtrack Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0)(backtrack Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96)No
Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-019.07114.391Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-2;No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-524.84216.109Chanyaya; (backtrack Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0)No
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-021.77616.209HIP 19894; No
HIP 1960020.31616.563Col 285 Sector LV-F b11-1;No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-723.75616.706Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-5; (backtrack HIP 21125)No
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-326.12217.210Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5; (backtrack Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4)(backtrack Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3)No
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-324.09417.596Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-2; (backtrack Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-1)No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-223.53418.083Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3; (backtrack Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-3)No
Col 285 Sector KA-G b11-026.49318.984Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1; (backtrack Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-1)No
A backtrack in the isolated Rajuarpai perimeter lets Thor get five Alerts this week

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 79 control systems and 913 targets.
Total connected: 79

Furthest Control: 27.097 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Chinas17.46216.077Sholintet; Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-13; Humarala (9.908 LY); etcYes
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-220.14815.816Marindhs; Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-3;No
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-820.34220.431HIP 113535; No
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-020.75611.551Mora; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-6; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-9; etcNo
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-221.37717.304Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-9; HIP 112475; Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-3; etcNo
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-321.93519.747Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-7; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-8; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5; etcNo
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-2022.02718.026Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115; No
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-122.02821.106Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5;No
Iduni22.03818.082Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115; Yes
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-822.04418.160Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-6; Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-7;No
Nothing unusual at Raijin

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Hadad
Read 44 control systems and 950 targets.
Total connected: 44

Furthest Control: 24.118 LY
TargetTarget DistanceControl DistanceAttackersInhabited?
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-012.11311.644Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-5; HIP 30502; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-0; etcNo
Col 285 Sector JW-M c7-1017.36914.349HIP 30502;No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-1217.57113.132Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-2; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-218.16415.317Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78; Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3;No
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-018.84110.064Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-7; HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; No
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-521.48216.067Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15; No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-421.89215.344HIP 31223; Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3; Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3; No
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-2822.15817.395Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7; Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;No
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-222.37218.869Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-1; Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-6;No
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-622.79217.550Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30;No
A tough defence at PM-B b14-0 coming up at Hadad



Code:
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Leigong
-- Indra
HIP 20187:1
Hyades Sector RT-Q b5-3:1
HIP 21112:1
Hyadum I:1
HR 1385:1
-- Oya
Cephei Sector WO-A b3:1
Kanus:1
Sambaho:1
HIP 13179:1
Cephei Sector AF-A c9:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-4:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-117:1
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-3:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector MG-E b12-1:1
HIP 19091:1
Rajuarpai:1
Col 285 Sector OB-E b12-1:1
-- Raijin
Alads:1
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-1:1
HIP 115162:1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10:1
-- Hadad
HIP 30439:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14:1
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-1:1
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4:1
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-0:1
 
Back
Top Bottom