Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

Aleks Zuno · Jun 6, 2024

Ian Doncaster said:
Indra prediction: 8 of 9, the attack at Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2 didn't happen, instead Hyades Sector GX-H a11-4 was attacked as the next on the list
The missed Indra attack could just be errors in which Controls are online which will hopefully filter out over time (and as they're recaptured...)

It seems that way, and it looks like INTRA had a different version of events which I imagine could trace back to that correction day after that update. In this case, it looks as if the Narwhal had HIP 20712 attacking HIP 20491 earlier at the end of week 78, while INTRA seemed to think the closer HIP 20480 was available as the attacker, leaving the latter unable to attack this time at the end of week 79.

M. Raijin remains mysterious, though!

Ian Doncaster · Jun 13, 2024

A lot of recaptures and defences this week but the only prediction which changes is at Indra

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Obamumbo	18.655	14.788	HIP 19263; Gaezatorix (9.996 LY); Arietis Sector MM-V b2-1; etc	Yes
HIP 20485	21.436	11.826	63 Tauri; 64 Tauri; 71 Tauri; etc	Yes
Kagutsuchi	22.496	20.115	Arietis Sector LM-V b2-3;	Yes
HIP 20948	23.542	17.820	HR 1354; HIP 20679; HIP 21261;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2	26.286	16.450	HIP 20480 (9.966 LY);	No
HIP 20019	25.583	17.871	HIP 20679;	Yes
HIP 19757	24.520	17.955	HIP 20419; (backtrack Hyades Sector UO-Q b5-2)	Yes
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5	26.135	18.372	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1; (backtrack Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3)	No
65 Kappa Tauri	25.424	19.729	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; (backtrack HR 1403)(backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1)(backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-0)	Yes
Hyades Sector UO-Q b5-2	26.106	20.227	Scythia; (backtrack Arietis Sector QS-T b3-2)(backtrack Hyades Sector XU-O b6-1)	No

...which is almost confined enough to be out of Alert budget. Standard backtracking would suggest Hyades UO-Q b5-2 over 65 Kappa Tauri.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 13, 2024

Indra: NN-S b4-1 goes for the closer IH-U b3-3 rather than the more distant JH-U b3-5 (accidentally missing off half of the target table in the revised prediction fortunately made no difference... oops)
All other predictions correct, for the record at Raijin backtrack to WK-L a9-2 as expected for the ninth Alert, most likely source (since that was well down the Control list before it became usable!) was WK-L a9-1

-------------------------

Narwhal Nose report generated 13 June

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first nine would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

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Calculating Indra
Read 65 control systems and 921 regional systems.
Total connected: 65

Furthest Control: 24.165 LY
Furthest potential capture: 26.286 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 19157	21.650	15.097	Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4;	Yes
HIP 20616	22.168	18.494	HIP 20397; 86 Rho Tauri (9.902 LY); 79 b Tauri; etc	Yes
HIP 21918	22.272	16.600	HIP 21179; HIP 21475;	Yes
HIP 20491	23.341	15.974	HIP 19934 (10.022 LY); Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4; Arietis Sector JR-V b2-1;	Yes
HIP 20056	23.677	17.806	HIP 20577; Hyadum II;	Yes
HIP 20492	24.043	15.082	71 Tauri; HIP 20916; 86 Rho Tauri; etc	Yes
HIP 21946	24.111	20.241	HIP 21261;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 20741	24.478	17.089	HIP 20916; (backtrack 78 Theta-2 Tauri)(backtrack 80 Tauri)	Yes
Hyades Sector FB-X c1-17	25.780	18.594	Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13;	No
80 Tauri	25.670	18.734	86 Rho Tauri; (backtrack HIP 21654)(backtrack 90 c1 Tauri)	No
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-4	25.800	18.885	Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3;	Yes
78 Theta-2 Tauri	24.568	18.976	Hyadum II;	No
90 c1 Tauri	26.476	19.444	79 b Tauri;	No
HIP 21380	26.610	19.729	Arietis Sector JR-V b2-4 (9.996 LY); (backtrack HR 1403)(backtrack 65 Kappa Tauri)(backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1)(backtrack 69 Upsilon Tauri)(backtrack Arietis Sector NS-R a5-0)	Yes
HIP 23069	26.339	20.093	HIP 22524;	No
Hyades Sector BC-I a11-1	29.648	21.108	Lei Hsini; (backtrack Hyades Sector AR-J a10-1)(backtrack Hyades Sector EX-H a11-1)	No

At the moment, mostly looking at internal attacks, but the Control sphere is only anchored by the DX-H a11-1 spire and if that goes it will switch to mostly-external targeting, so this prediction is very provisional.

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Calculating Cocijo
Read 197 control systems and 791 regional systems.
Total connected: 197

Furthest Control: 33.590 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Laumas	29.269	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	Yes
HIP 37520	29.500	26.660	Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22;	Yes
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	24.157	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-1	30.635	24.209	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; etc	No
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-4	31.025	24.101	Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2; HIP 39750; Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-3; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-27	31.037	29.283	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-F b12-3	31.160	21.530	Khwal;	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-28	31.180	27.816	Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14;	No
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-5	31.260	25.947	Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11;	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-68	31.281	22.723	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-136;	No
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	23.190	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4;	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5	31.444	26.125	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6;	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4	31.529	25.367	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11	31.563	28.061	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1	31.586	29.035	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6;	No
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-0	31.614	26.842	HIP 35633;	No

Nine internal attacks at Cocijo.

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Calculating Thor
Read 107 control systems and 884 regional systems.
Total connected: 107

Furthest Control: 34.834 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 18857	24.616	21.811	Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1; Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0;	Yes
Unktety	25.357	17.094	HIP 19198;	Yes
HIP 20509	30.900	28.684	HIP 20489;	Yes
Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3	32.800	28.412	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1	33.636	28.057	HIP 18776;	No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12	33.827	24.574	Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-80 (9.976 LY);	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3	35.161	27.471	Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16	34.883	30.742	HIP 19501;	No
HIP 18513	40.473	31.156	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3;	No
Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-3	38.910	31.784	Almar; (backtrack Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-14)(backtrack Col 285 Sector QR-C b13-4)(backtrack Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-15)	No
Col 285 Sector GP-H b10-3	36.254	33.390	Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-1;	No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11	35.783	34.612	Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1;	No

With no usable backtracks, Thor is likely to only get 8 Alerts again next week

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Calculating Raijin
Read 192 control systems and 797 regional systems.
Total connected: 192

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY
Furthest potential capture: 29.327 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Nu Guang	19.330	11.760	Snoqui;	Yes
Holvandalla	21.476	16.445	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc	Yes
Bormuninus	24.356	20.148	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0; etc	Yes
Aurus	25.723	18.026	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 (10.004 LY); Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20; Iduni; etc	Yes
Wanmi	26.362	24.008	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3; HIP 116052; Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-4;	Yes
Jawul	26.675	17.462	Chinas; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25;	Yes
Ngolite	26.894	20.431	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; HIP 112595; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-3	27.329	19.355	Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; HIP 112595; etc	No
Tvasu	27.856	24.384	HIP 113076; Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2;	Yes
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-3	27.885	19.988	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 (9.926 LY); HIP 115162; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	No
HIP 117762	28.015	23.198	HIP 117229;	No
Kissi	28.574	21.584	Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-4	29.717	21.214	Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No
Pegasi Sector RP-L a9-5	30.960	21.357	Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2;	No
Pegasi Sector SK-L a9-2	30.350	21.377	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-2; (backtrack Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-5)	No
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-2	30.484	21.935	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; (backtrack Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-4)(backtrack Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-3)	No

Raijin will be piling on the populated Alerts next week.

With no other changes this looks on track for 22 populated Alerts next week, which would be the highest for almost exactly a year, and might even be enough for a couple to break through to Invasion in the following week.

SubitaNeo · Jun 13, 2024

Aleks Zuno said:
It seems that way, and it looks like INTRA had a different version of events which I imagine could trace back to that correction day after that update. In this case, it looks as if the Narwhal had HIP 20712 attacking HIP 20491 earlier at the end of week 78, while INTRA seemed to think the closer HIP 20480 was available as the attacker, leaving the latter unable to attack this time at the end of week 79.

M. Raijin remains mysterious, though!

Raijin is being cleared by alerts mostly by Davinci Squadron (DVCO), they started like 1 month ago.

Aleks Zuno · Jun 13, 2024

SubitaNeo said:
Raijin is being cleared by alerts mostly by Davinci Squadron (DVCO), they started like 1 month ago.

The Alert clearance at M. Raijin is not at all mysterious; I referred earlier to its unexplained attack behaviour in how it chooses to place them!

Ian Doncaster said:
Indra: NN-S b4-1 goes for the closer IH-U b3-3 rather than the more distant JH-U b3-5

Priority populated target choices being equal—in this case, absent—some possible ideas, one old and ~~one~~ two new:

Some element of foresight in considering which systems the attack candidates can themselves attack eventually, as if they are using the Galaxy map to plot a route to a farther system with only a 10 Ly jump range. Presuming the Thargoid goal is to push farther out, and waiving the recently-evicted Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4:
- The missed Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5 (26.14 Ly) may have been immediately farther, but its own farthest is only Hyades Sector JH-U b3-6 (28.14 Ly).
- The attacked Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3 (26.02 Ly) was slightly closer, but that now can see Hyades Sector IH-U b3-4 (30.29 Ly).
Some element of preferring Alerts in systems which themselves had Alerts more recently, possibly where both become available for attack simultaneously. Both possible target systems had their respite time expiring together, although the circumstances were a little different:
- The missed Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5 was completed last as Control in week 76, gaining respite through 77–80.
- The attacked Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3 was completed last as Alert in week 78, with respite 79–80.

Additional:

Attempting to reach the recently-evicted Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4 regardless, and choosing instead the alternative target system which was closest to that original target:
- The missed Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5 is 7.54 Ly away.
- The attacked Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3 is slightly closer at 7.43 Ly away.

Kira Goto · Jun 13, 2024

Ian Doncaster said:
With no other changes this looks on track for 22 populated Alerts next week, which would be the highest for almost exactly a year, and might even be enough for a couple to break through to Invasion in the following week

I’m going to remain doubtful about that because of the speed of clearance for those populated alerts. If takes only… I think it wasn’t even a day for the seven of last week’s cycle to be completely cleared out, and leave only the unpopulated ones.

Between that and Ide/PDES resuming their roaming behavior following the rebalance, I don’t think there’s any particular chance for invasions unless all of the (remaining) Titans simultaneously decide to do an Oya-style alert spam favorably targeting inhabited space.

Aleks Zuno · Jun 13, 2024

Quick extra review of some of those ideas against the week 41 Ixbalan example:

Recalling an earlier guess, if something foresight-like occurs then missing Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8 could have been due to plotting a route to the outer Lovaroju rather than the inner Senocidi. If so, probably the Ixbalan attack goes to Hyades Sector PN-T c3-5 as the closer to Lovaroju.
The alternative-target idea does not work at all; Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8 was already the farthest clear system.
The previous-Alert idea could be possible! Hyades Sector PN-T c3-7 was attacked earlier at the end of week 37—actually by Ixbalan itself—as an inner target, the rules for which are not in question. It had an extra week 41 clear because five Alerts were too few for Ixbalan to act, but the point is that it was the more recent Alert prior to week 42. Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8 had been inner-attacked by Ixbalan, but earlier at the end of week 35.

The previous-Alert idea is not yet clear whether it would have to be a repeat attacker or merely a repeat target, although if there are some prediction problems not attributable to incorrect versions of events then that could suggest a repeat target preference demanding a change of attacker. Ixbalan attacked Hyades Sector PN-T c3-7 prior to week 41 because that attack was inner, Hyades Sector NN-S b4-1 outer-attacked Hyades Sector IH-U b3-3 prior to week 80 because Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5 was in respite, and a possible guess is that they choose the same Alert target again if they can.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 13, 2024

HIP 8525 at Oya is probably another good recurring example to test against - multiple inhabited target options fairly consistently between September and January, of which it consistently picked the same one as its first priority, and then the same one after that if its first was on cooldown, neither being either the closest or furthest inhabited target.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 14, 2024

Kira Goto said:
I’m going to remain doubtful about that because of the speed of clearance for those populated alerts. If takes only… I think it wasn’t even a day for the seven of last week’s cycle to be completely cleared out, and leave only the unpopulated ones.

Yes - six cleared in the first 24 hours this week, so even if every Alert was populated (and neither Cocijo nor Thor is in a position to deliver that), definitely no Invasions coming from that source without some big shakeup.

Aleks Zuno · Jun 14, 2024

Ian Doncaster said:
HIP 8525 at Oya is probably another good recurring example to test against - multiple inhabited target options fairly consistently between September and January, of which it consistently picked the same one as its first priority, and then the same one after that if its first was on cooldown, neither being either the closest or furthest inhabited target.

Indeed that undermines the previous-Alert idea a lot; since the around mid-3309, it looks as if HIP 8525 has simply always preferred HIP 2422 instead of the farther Poqomathi—that is to say, it has attacked Poqomathi, but not by preference:

A prior attack before the HIP 2422 surprise at the end of week 48 was Poqomathi after week 32—but only because HIP 2422 was in respite after being attacked by HIP 7338 after week 30. HIP 8525 also inner-attacked Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1 in the meantime, after week 43.
HIP 8525 has preferred HIP 2422 consistently after that, with only one other attack at Poqomathi after week 58 for the same reason, the respite at HIP 2422 due to its own attack there after week 56.

In route-plotting terms, very notably Poqomathi goes nowhere meanwhile HIP 2422 is very well-connected! Looking at positions, HIP 2422 seems appropriate for a simple route-plotting attempt to reach Bhotepa, or perhaps for a less obvious attempt to reach Muncheim.

I am fairly warm to the general notion of route-plotting being used for outer attacks because it could give some underlying insight regarding why farther systems are chosen, being exactly how the Galaxy map works—a destination 18 Ly away with 10 Ly jump preferring to plot 10 + 8 rather than save fuel by using 9 + 9. I think some unexplained choices could be because a route has to use 9 + 9 occasionally, if a star available at 10 is the wrong direction.

Clearly it is also an incomplete idea, not knowing yet how a farther route destination is chosen, thus factors such as population could be possible. Despite being just as unlikely as any other guess, something such as "route to highest population within 20 Ly" could cause outer attacks which are mostly farthest as predicted, but with occasional differences when routes become difficult!

Ian Doncaster · Jun 20, 2024

Revisions at Indra - down to just five Alerts expected

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 19157	21.650	15.097	Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 20492	24.043	15.082	71 Tauri; (backtrack 78 Theta-2 Tauri)	Yes
HIP 21918	22.272	16.600	HIP 21179;	Yes
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-4	25.800	21.702	Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5; (backtrack HIP 23069)(backtrack Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-1)	Yes
Hyades Sector BC-I a11-1	29.648	21.917	HIP 22350; (backtrack Hyades Sector AR-J a10-1)(backtrack Hyades Sector EX-H a11-1)	No

and Almar's recapture at Thor adjusts the targets too (no backtracks so first eight)

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 18857	24.616	21.811	Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1; Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0;	Yes
Unktety	25.357	17.094	HIP 19198;	Yes
HIP 20509	30.900	28.684	HIP 20489;	Yes
Col 285 Sector NQ-F b11-3	32.800	28.412	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-1	33.636	28.057	HIP 18776;	No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-12	33.827	24.574	Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-80 (9.976 LY);	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-3	35.161	27.471	Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1;	No
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-16	34.883	30.742	HIP 19501;	No
HIP 18513	40.473	31.156	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3;	No
Col 285 Sector GP-H b10-3	36.254	33.390	Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-1;	No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11	35.783	34.612	Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1;	No

Grimscrub · Jun 20, 2024

5/5 confirmed in Indra as it stands - BC-I surprised me a little as I'd been rushing and was a minute late to check the DCoH, pre-processed version of predictions.
First 9 all turned out as predicted for Thor in turn, all looking good.

Ian Doncaster · Jun 20, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 20 June

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Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first nine would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

All predictions last week correct

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Calculating Indra
Read 32 control systems and 945 regional systems.
Total connected: 25
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
75 Tauri	12.76477392
HIP 19098	13.95811956
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4	15.09711401
76 Tauri	15.46350921
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-1	15.84982009
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-2	15.8593673
HIP 21179	16.59951642

Furthest Control: 21.917 LY
Furthest potential capture: 29.648 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 20890	21.889	13.186	64 Tauri (10.013 LY);	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
HIP 20527	22.540	14.040	Hyadum I;	Yes

Indra down to just two potential Alerts this week (though of course unlikely to actually get either of those, especially with one of them being at "optimistic" range)

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Calculating Cocijo
Read 196 control systems and 793 regional systems.
Total connected: 196

Furthest Control: 33.590 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Sukurbago	24.150	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7;	Yes
Chibis	24.821	17.688	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-3	29.507	26.325	Njana; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1;	No
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-1	29.540	29.712	Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3;	No
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-4	30.707	28.061	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10; etc	No
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-1	30.831	28.465	HIP 37844;	No
Col 285 Sector OM-J b10-0	30.849	28.506	Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-23;	No
Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-16	30.965	23.772	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0; Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; etc	No
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-68	31.281	22.723	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-136;	No
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	23.190	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4;	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5	31.444	26.125	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6;	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4	31.529	25.367	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11	31.563	28.140	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10; Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1;	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-1	31.586	29.035	Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6;	No
Col 285 Sector UN-H b11-0	31.614	26.842	HIP 35633;	No
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-4	31.641	28.020	Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-1;	No

Cocijo still has plenty of internal options to cycle through

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 106 control systems and 884 regional systems.
Total connected: 105
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89	32.77153693

Furthest Control: 34.834 LY
Furthest potential capture: 35.161 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector HL-O c6-5	31.498	32.772	Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89;	No
Col 285 Sector HF-G b11-2	32.455	26.122	Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3;	No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-10	34.382	29.231	Varlawoth;	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-15	35.033	28.185	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14;	No
HIP 18513	40.473	31.156	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3; (backtrack Col 285 Sector WC-C b13-2)	No
Col 285 Sector WC-C b13-2	35.479	31.792	Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1;	No
Col 285 Sector GP-H b10-3	36.254	33.390	Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-1;	No
Col 285 Sector KB-O c6-11	35.783	34.612	Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1;	No

Thor gets a maximum of 8 Alerts this week

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 192 control systems and 798 regional systems.
Total connected: 192

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-4	26.720	20.143	HIP 115162; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; etc	No
Koko Oh	27.066	21.106	Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-2; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector JS-Q a6-2	27.531	22.028	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; Tagin; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-3	27.885	19.988	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4 (9.926 LY); Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-3; etc	No
HIP 117762	28.015	23.198	HIP 117229;	No
Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-0	28.088	24.019	HIP 116542; Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22; Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1; etc	Yes
HIP 113698	28.090	22.038	Iduni; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-6; Kamato; etc	No
Kissi	28.574	21.584	Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2; etc	Yes
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-4	28.626	19.893	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Iceniguari; etc	No
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-4	28.644	21.357	Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-2	28.672	21.116	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Gl 886.1 B; Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-5; etc	No
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-4	28.704	22.250	Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Iceniguari; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-2; etc	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-4	29.717	21.214	Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No
Pegasi Sector SK-L a9-2	30.350	21.377	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-2; (backtrack Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-5)	No
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-2	30.484	21.935	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; (backtrack Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-4)(backtrack Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-3)	No
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-3	29.321	21.946	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; (backtrack Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-0)(backtrack Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-4)	No

Raijin coming closer to placing external Alerts this time

From this week's high of 18 populated Alerts (the most at once for a year even despite Indra losing a few), next week looks like it will have just five if the Indra attack goes to plan

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
Arietis Sector IG-X b1-4:1
71 Tauri:1
HIP 21179:1
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5:1
HIP 22350:1
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-2:1
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25:1
Khwal:1
Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5:1
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1:1
HIP 19198:1
HIP 20489:1
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1:1
HIP 18776:1
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-80:1
Col 285 Sector LL-E b12-1:1
HIP 19501:1
-- Raijin
Snoqui:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2:1
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0:1
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3:1
Chinas:1
HIP 113535:1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0:1
HIP 113076:1

Ian Doncaster · Jun 27, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 27 June

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first nine would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

No prediction revisions needed last week except the obvious one that Indra won't get Alerts, and all predictions correct.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Indra
Read 11 control systems and 965 regional systems.
Total connected: 11

Furthest Control: 21.917 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Hyades Sector EX-H a11-1	27.042	21.917	HIP 22350; (backtrack Hyades Sector AR-J a10-1)	No

Indra in theory can get one Alert from its outer Spire but probably won't get chance

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 195 control systems and 793 regional systems.
Total connected: 195

Furthest Control: 33.590 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-0	20.899	18.409	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-15; Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; HIP 38718; etc	No
Picenile	24.796	19.205	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; Khwal; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-2	25.800	27.816	Col 285 Sector WN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25;	No
Asletae	28.536	21.530	Khwal;	Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-6	28.669	20.237	Kurumanit; Mahlina; Vucumatha; etc	No
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-7	28.801	23.391	HIP 36901;	No
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-0	29.280	23.548	Canaharvas; Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-3; Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-3;	No
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-7	29.293	25.105	Desurinbin; Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-23;	No
Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-2	29.492	24.864	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-5; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-7 (9.933 LY); Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1; etc	No
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-101	30.406	28.202	Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-22;	No
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-8	30.992	27.061	Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1;	No
HIP 40786	31.389	25.947	Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2;	Yes
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-3	31.399	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Vocovii; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-5	31.444	26.125	Col 285 Sector AF-P c6-17; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-6;	No
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-4	31.529	24.209	Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector AU-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3; etc	No
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-11	31.563	28.140	Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-14; Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10; Col 285 Sector US-H b11-1;	No

Another in-fill attempt at Cocijo

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 106 control systems and 884 regional systems.
Total connected: 105
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89	32.77153693

Furthest Control: 34.834 LY
Furthest potential capture: 40.473 LY - may affect result if not defended

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Theemim	30.148	22.217	Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4; Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3;	Yes
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-0	30.239	28.412	Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-1; Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-2; HIP 17310;	No
Synuefe OU-D b45-3	30.565	25.824	Col 285 Sector SW-D b12-2; Synuefe OU-D b45-0;	No
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-13	31.072	24.842	Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-5;	No
Synuefe OU-D b45-1	31.109	30.347	Synuefe OU-D b45-0;	No
HIP 16954	32.671	28.008	HIP 17897;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Hyades Sector MM-M b7-1	35.769	28.684	HIP 20489;	No

Thor again rotating around its limited perimeter

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 191 control systems and 798 regional systems.
Total connected: 191

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Vistnero	21.009	19.034	Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1; Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9; Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8 (9.976 LY); etc	Yes
Nibelaako	22.263	16.841	Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0; Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; etc	Yes
Isla	23.900	18.935	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2 (9.952 LY); HIP 116052; Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-4;	Yes
HIP 117177	24.758	21.188	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6; Kuruma;	Yes
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-0	26.084	23.131	Iceniguari; Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2; Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-3; etc	No
HIP 116744	28.615	26.084	Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22;	No
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-4	28.644	21.357	Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-2; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-3; Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2; etc	No
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-2	28.672	21.116	Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-4; Gl 886.1 B; Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-5; etc	No
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-4	28.704	22.250	Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-0; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-2; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-0; etc	No
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Pegasi Sector OY-O a7-2	28.793	19.751	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9;	No
Pegasi Sector SE-N a8-1	29.213	20.342	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8;	No
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-0	29.327	21.135	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4; (backtrack Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-2)	No
Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-4	29.717	21.214	Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0;	No
Pegasi Sector SK-L a9-2	30.350	21.377	Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-2; (backtrack Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-5)	No
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-2	30.484	21.935	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3; (backtrack Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-4)(backtrack Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-3)	No
Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-3	29.321	21.946	Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-5; (backtrack Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-0)(backtrack Pegasi Sector SP-L a9-4)	No

Raijin back up to its own edge this week (giving a 2-for-1 opportunity to lose it an Alert next week by taking out Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-7)

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Indra
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7:1
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3:1
Njana:1
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3:1
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-12:1
HIP 37844:1
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-4:1
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-0:1
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-69:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89:1
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-3:1
Varlawoth:1
Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14:1
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3:1
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1:1
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-1:1
Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1:1
-- Raijin
HIP 115162:1
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5:1
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-4:1
HIP 117229:1
HIP 116542:1
Iduni:1
Chakma:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5:1

Ian Doncaster · Jul 4, 2024

No formal prediction changes other than the obvious removal of Indra's Alerts (and indeed, its removal from the prediction system)

Given the recent announcement the other predictions should be viewed as unlikely, though.

yttrbio · Jul 4, 2024

The new rule seems to be "only place 9 alerts in populated systems if possible, and the closest 3 go direct to invasion."

Ian Doncaster · Jul 4, 2024

Re-running last week's prediction with the "only target inhabited systems" restriction seems to give the right answers, so I'll go with that for future predictions.

Narwhal Nose report generated 4 July

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first nine would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 195 control systems and 793 regional systems.
Total connected: 195

Furthest Control: 33.590 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Laumas	29.269	23.090	Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc	Yes
HIP 37520	29.500	26.660	Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22;	Yes
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3	30.014	24.162	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-2	35.126	26.317	Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;	Yes
Purukuna	34.224	26.920	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	Yes
Goansi	35.553	27.613	Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;	Yes
Njambula	34.910	28.465	HIP 37844;	Yes

Cocijo reveals the weakness in the Thargoid's new strategy. Its perimeter is already down to seven, most of which can be permanently cut off by retaking one or two uninhabited Controls which they then won't attempt to recapture.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 106 control systems and 890 regional systems.
Total connected: 105
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89	32.77153693

Furthest Control: 34.834 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 18857	24.616	21.811	Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1; Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0;	Yes
Unktety	25.357	17.094	HIP 19198;	Yes
HIP 21724	29.661	32.772	Col 285 Sector SI-T d3-89;	Yes
HIP 20509	30.900	28.684	HIP 20489;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

Thor has even less of a perimeter this way, as expected. Again, all except Unktety can be prevented permanently [1] with a couple of recaptures (Unktety is attacked by an inhabited system which is itself attached to another inhabited control system)

[1] Well, until they realise they've messed up

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 190 control systems and 799 regional systems.
Total connected: 190

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Nu Guang	19.330	11.760	Snoqui;	Yes
Holvandalla	21.476	16.445	Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc	Yes
Bormuninus	24.356	20.148	Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2; Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0; Pegasi Sector UF-L a9-0; etc	Yes
Aurus	25.723	18.026	Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 (10.004 LY); Iduni; Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4; etc	Yes
Wanmi	26.362	24.008	Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3; HIP 116542; HIP 116052; etc	Yes
Jawul	26.675	17.462	Chinas; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25;	Yes
Ngolite	26.894	20.342	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; etc	Yes
Tvasu	27.856	24.384	HIP 113076; Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Mongan	29.073	24.807	Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	Yes
HIP 110	32.882	25.524	Kuruma;	Yes
Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-4	28.797	25.598	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-7;	Yes
HIP 114512	33.503	25.901	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-0;	Yes
HIP 112042	34.031	25.969	Pegasi Sector OE-N a8-2;	Yes
HIP 118213	32.738	26.136	Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1;	Yes
Kappa Andromedae	31.848	26.930	Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-7;	Yes
Auakereks	31.599	27.013	Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-1;	Yes

And here we see the Maelstrom who came up with and forced through the strategic proposal - Raijin has a substantial number of targets. But even they haven't really thought this through - a huge amount of their perimeter can be permanently destroyed.

Code:

-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16:1
Khwal:1
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1:1
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10:1
Paitra:1
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1:1
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-3:1
HR 3048:1
-- Thor
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-4:1
HIP 17897:1
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0:1
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6:1
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20:1
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2:1
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2:1
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-110:1

Ian Doncaster · Jul 11, 2024

Just one prediction change - Thor loses an Alert to get three Invasions only. The recaptures at Cocijo don't affect this week but will constrain it a bit more in later weeks.

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
HIP 18857	24.616	21.811	Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-1; Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0;	Yes
Unktety	25.357	17.094	HIP 19198;	Yes
HIP 20509	30.900	28.684	HIP 20489;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

Aleks Zuno · Jul 11, 2024

With a change back down to five attacks as with 3309 but retaining the inner three becoming Invasions, and observing the one fewer attack due to lack of backtracking at M. Cocijo, all seems good!

Ian Doncaster · Jul 11, 2024

Narwhal Nose report generated 11 July

-------------------------------------------

Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first nine would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.

Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting.
Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation.
Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere.
Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here.
Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Cocijo
Read 193 control systems and 801 regional systems.
Total connected: 193

Furthest Control: 33.590 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Sukurbago	24.150	23.878	Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7;	Yes
Chibis	24.821	17.688	Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; etc	Yes
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5	26.491	17.824	Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5 (9.976 LY); Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Purukuna	34.224	26.920	Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;	Yes
Goansi	35.553	27.613	Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;	Yes
Njambula	34.910	28.465	HIP 37844;	Yes

The reduction to five, if it continues, will let Cocijo spread out its perimeter use more evenly and place a "full" set each week (subject to targeting switch tax)

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Thor
Read 102 control systems and 892 regional systems.
Total connected: 101
Disconnected Controls

System	Distance
Col 285 Sector SH-C b13-1	34.61244696

Furthest Control: 34.612 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Almar	31.784	26.058	Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-3; Col 285 Sector JG-O c6-14;	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-

Thor, on the other hand, still used up its very limited perimeter last time. Depending on how fast this week's attack is, it might not get to hit Almar either.

-------------------------------------------

Calculating Raijin
Read 190 control systems and 802 regional systems.
Total connected: 190

Furthest Control: 28.748 LY

Target	Target Distance	Control Distance	Attackers	Inhabited?
Jawul	26.675	17.462	Chinas; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13; Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-25;	Yes
Ngolite	26.894	20.342	Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8; HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0; etc	Yes
Koko Oh	27.066	20.431	HIP 113535; Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5; Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1; etc	Yes
Tvasu	27.856	24.384	HIP 113076; Pegasi Sector ON-S b4-2;	Yes
Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-0	28.088	24.019	HIP 116542; Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22; Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1; etc	Yes
Kissi	28.574	21.584	Chakma; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1; Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2; etc	Yes
-	-	-	Control Sphere Edge	-
Mongan	29.073	24.807	Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;	Yes
HIP 110	32.882	25.524	Kuruma;	Yes
Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-4	28.797	25.598	Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-7;	Yes
HIP 114512	33.503	25.901	Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-0;	Yes
HIP 112042	34.031	25.969	Pegasi Sector OE-N a8-2;	Yes
HIP 118213	32.738	26.136	Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1;	Yes
Kappa Andromedae	31.848	26.930	Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-7;	Yes
Auakereks	31.599	27.013	Pegasi Sector WK-L a9-1;	Yes
Koamuth	33.092	27.377	Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-3;	Yes
Malgal	34.541	27.419	Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-1;	Yes

Raijin had enough perimeter to cycle 9 for now, so all this change does for it is reduce the number of extra Alerts placed.