Mostly just to conclude that last set for the end of week 85 while presumably @Ian Doncaster enjoy a quite nice break—all were correct with a budget of five, noting once again that M. Cocijo only gets four for lack of supporting attackers beyond its Control radius! For a quite provisional estimate of attacks ending week 86, given that the INTRA version of events can be a little mismatched at times:
M. Cocijo has 10 inner and 3 outer targets, and should inner-attack Picenile, Asletae, Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11, HIP 40786 and Daisla.
Asletae could be guarded by evicting Khwal, but that would just send an attack to Na Zha instead.
M. Thor can only outer-attack Theemim.
Backed by Col 285 Sectors JA-G b11-3, NG-E b12-3 and NG-E b12-4. They are all Counterstrike at least, but would need much direct action given that the dwindling availability of Spire progress is unlikely to reach the latter.
M. Raijin has 6 inner and 23 outer targets, and should inner-attack Vistnero, Nibelaako, Ixbaksha, Isla and HIP 117177.
Looking back at some of the mystery examples once again, I wonder whether specific populations are considered when choosing outer-attacks. Population feels like it would be a much too obvious idea not to have been suggested earlier, although perhaps there is a good chance that it was dismissed at that time based only on inner-attacks, before the notion of outer-attacks was known:
If so, that explains very much why HIP 8525 always outer-attacks the 8.1 billion population HIP 2422! That would make the Poqomathi its second choice from those populated systems farther than itself.
In the Ixbalan case, the attack at the non-farthest Hyades Sector PN-T c3-5 could have been an attempt to reach Lovaroju with 17.5 million, whereas the farthest Hyades Sector PN-T c3-8 would lead only to Senocidi with 3.6 million. As a hypothesis, perhaps it costs one budget to reveal Human concentrations beyond the Control radius, then route-plotting is used but limited to valid targets given the attack rules.
Will seek counter-examples among the large body of correct outer-attack predictions a bit later!
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first nine would be expected to be hit by Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Including captures so far this week in the prediction - all should be conventional internal attacks at this stage and go through normally.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 193 control systems and 803 regional systems.
Total connected: 193
Furthest Control: 33.590 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Picenile
24.796
19.205
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; Khwal; etc
Yes
Asletae
28.536
21.530
Khwal;
Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11
28.899
20.237
Kurumanit (9.965 LY); Mahlina; Vucumatha; etc
Yes
HIP 40786
31.389
25.947
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2;
Yes
Daisla
31.962
24.157
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; HR 3048; Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;
Yes
Na Zha
32.027
27.847
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1;
Yes
Wogaiawong
32.122
24.880
Paitra; Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22; Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5; etc
Yes
HIP 38134
32.231
26.329
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;
Yes
Ao Kiang
32.255
29.970
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-18;
Yes
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146
33.189
24.597
HR 3048;
Yes
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Goansi
35.553
27.613
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;
Yes
Njambula
34.910
28.465
HIP 37844;
Yes
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
After recaptures, read 68 control systems (87 originally) and 909 regional systems.
Total connected: 57 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
HIP 20024
19.46077284
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0
21.77609336
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-0
22.8637908
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-3
23.4224535
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1
23.95464872
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-3
24.22004029
HIP 18705
24.95223954
Furthest Control: 25.234 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Theemim
30.148
24.094
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-3;
Yes
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
After recaptures, read 188 control systems (189 originally) and 806 regional systems.
Total connected: 188
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first five would be expected to be hit by Invasions and Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Other than Thor as expected losing its Alert due to Control recapture, the above prediction seems to have worked out. Cocijo and Raijin have plenty of internal targets to go through, while Thor has two external targets.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 193 control systems and 801 regional systems.
Total connected: 193
Furthest Control: 33.590 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Laumas
29.269
23.090
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc
Yes
HIP 37520
29.500
26.660
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-6; Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22;
Yes
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3
30.014
24.162
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102; etc
Yes
Na Zha
32.027
27.847
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1;
Yes
Wogaiawong
32.122
24.880
Paitra; Col 285 Sector WT-Q c5-22; Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5; etc
Yes
HIP 38134
32.231
26.329
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;
Yes
Ao Kiang
32.255
29.970
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-18;
Yes
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146
33.189
24.597
HR 3048;
Yes
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-2
35.126
26.317
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;
Yes
Goansi
35.553
27.613
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;
Yes
Njambula
34.910
28.465
HIP 37844;
Yes
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 63 control systems and 935 regional systems.
Total connected: 52 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
HIP 20024
19.46077284
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-0
21.77609336
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-0
22.8637908
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-3
23.4224535
Col 285 Sector SM-C b13-1
23.95464872
Col 285 Sector IA-G b11-3
24.22004029
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-80
24.57380862
Furthest Control: 24.574 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Unktety
25.357
17.094
HIP 19198;
Yes
HIP 18857
24.616
22.796
Col 285 Sector UH-C b13-0;
Yes
Both systems are only targeted by a single Control, though Unktety is currently Thor's only possible target itself targeted by an inhabited system.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 188 control systems and 805 regional systems.
Total connected: 188
Furthest Control: 28.748 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Nu Guang
19.330
11.760
Snoqui;
Yes
Holvandalla
21.476
16.445
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc
Yes
Balak
23.024
16.575
Kaurukat; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; HIP 113785; etc
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3; HIP 116542; HIP 116052; etc
Yes
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Kissi
28.574
21.584
Chakma;
Yes
Ralteki
28.923
22.027
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20;
Yes
Pegasi Sector EM-S a5-3
32.833
23.770
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2;
Yes
Hasaka
29.591
23.897
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2;
Yes
Wikira
30.080
24.579
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-110;
Yes
Mongan
29.073
24.807
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-13;
Yes
HIP 110
32.882
25.524
Kuruma;
Yes
Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-4
28.797
25.598
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-7;
Yes
HIP 114512
33.503
25.901
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-0;
Yes
HIP 112042
34.031
25.969
Pegasi Sector OE-N a8-2;
Yes
Raijin's target list doesn't change directly, but the recaptures move Kissi from internal to external, which could in theory matter if the budget rises to 7 this week.
All Alert/Invasion predictions correct, but the 5-for-1 swap to reactivate a spire at Thor is more interesting.
No obvious reason why that particular spire was picked:
- it's the furthest out
- it was neither the most recent nor the least recent to be shut down
- none of Thor's spires can be used to launch Alerts from right now
Might just be random, though I guess "see what happens if it's retaken again" is an obvious option.
Similarly a little unclear on which five controls were picked - it looks to have been the three connected to the spire (logical) and then two from the other side of the maelstrom (which were adjacent to a different deactivated spire, though). Does that imply that they can only do this if they have spire-adjacent controls? (i.e. they can only reactivate spires that they would have been able to Alert under the old rules?)
Providing I don’t get told it is inaccurate data* - not currently in the game to verify myself - the spire at Col 285 Sector PB-E b12-3 was also reported to be active again on the Overwatch site. Maybe …?
*If so I will come back to this post and edit it accordingly.
(Still doesn’t seem very strategically sound given that Thargoid defensive efforts around spires just result in losing far more systems by keeping them active for longer, and we’ve still yet to see any tangible effect for their side of the coin by having active spires.)
If that is the case then that does make things a little more logical - a potential explanation:
- since unpopulated Alerts aren't placed any more, they need another means to get Spires back (primarily for continuation of spire gameplay up to the end of the war rather than anything in-universe, I expect!)
- Spires are reactivated by sacrificing some of their connected Controls [1] (any of "all uninhabited", "all", "X where X is at least 3, otherwise all" would fit this week)
- Spires can't be reactivated immediately on being lost (or they're reactivated longest cooldown first and they can only do 2)
- either Spires are only reactivated if the Maelstrom has none (or one?) active, or it's a change introduced this week (or PB-E b12-3 would have come back last week)
If the connectivity requirement is correct that implies only one reactivation per spire is possible (at least while "not placing uninhabited Alerts" continues), and possibly less than that if the adjacent controls get completely cleared out anyway (as might well happen in the final stages of clearance, or for more distant spires)
It'll be interesting to see what Thor does at the end of this week, then. The spire at NG-E b12-0 is next to the inhabited HIP 19091, for example.
[1] Again according to DCoH, Thor also appears to have lost IG-O c6-9, which was also connected to PB-E b12-3. So that would make it 6-for-2 but the connectivity might be more important than the number.
The change could have been introduced as early as the rebalance, but with Indra getting reduced to zero controls outright when it lost its final spire (providing that it is the trigger, which seems sensible to assume), I suppose nobody would have gotten a chance to see this system in action until now.
Can’t rule out manual intervention by Frontier for this case, either, but further observation will probably yield more information on whether it was or wasn’t.
And while I’m here, I’ve been wonsering, have invasion respite intervals changed? Thought it used to be four months before a system could be attacked again after a successful defense but Nu Guang’s invasion state ended on July 18, and here we are again. Because it skips over the alert state cooldown timers for it are applied instead …?
And while I’m here, I’ve been wonsering, have invasion respite intervals changed? Thought it used to be four months before a system could be attacked again after a successful defense but Nu Guang’s invasion state ended on July 18, and here we are again. Because it skips over the alert state cooldown timers for it are applied instead …?
I don't think they've changed as such - for invasions stopped in their first week, the cycle was always "Alert" -> "Invasion" -> "Recovery" -> "Clear", so I don't think taking out the Alert week entirely changes the cooldown for the invasion - but yes, it does allow the reattacking to take place a week "sooner" that before.
(Though on the same schedule as "Alert" -> "Clear" -> "Clear" cooldowns take place, so it is still the case that a first-week defence gives two weeks before another attack)
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Since the reduced Alert count seems to be stable, I've reduced the number of "extra" targets generated on the initial reports.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 191 control systems and 803 regional systems.
Total connected: 192
Furthest Control: 33.590 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Sukurbago
24.150
23.878
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7;
Yes
Chibis
24.821
17.688
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; etc
Yes
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5
26.491
17.824
Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5 (9.976 LY); Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; etc
Yes
Ao Kiang
32.255
29.970
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-18;
Yes
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146
33.189
24.597
HR 3048;
Yes
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-2
35.126
26.317
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;
Yes
Purukuna
34.224
26.920
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;
Yes
Goansi
35.553
27.613
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;
Yes
Njambula
34.910
28.465
HIP 37844;
Yes
Cocijo just has enough space for an internal week, though a few of these do just have a single attacker and recapturing any one of them would lose it an Alert.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 35 control systems and 959 regional systems.
Total connected: 25 Disconnected Controls
System
Distance
Rajuarpai
11.4695589
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-2
13.13938943
Chanyaya
16.10879151
HIP 19894
16.20887223
Col 285 Sector NG-E b12-5
17.20970157
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-14
17.71585625
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1
18.98375128
Col 285 Sector EA-Q c5-6
20.09559673
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-79
20.88196927
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-0
20.92382949
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96
22.00002219
Furthest Control: 22.642 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Thor gets no Alerts (and is likely to stay that way for a while) except for the possibility of more spire reactivations. It's also been broken up into multiple bits.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 181 control systems and 813 regional systems.
Total connected: 182
HIP 116542; Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-22; Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-1;
Yes
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Kissi
28.574
21.584
Chakma;
Yes
Ralteki
28.923
22.027
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-20;
Yes
Pegasi Sector EM-S a5-3
32.833
23.770
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2;
Yes
Hasaka
29.591
23.897
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2;
Yes
Raijin still managing to place entirely internally for now. Another eight control recaptures (working inwards) would move Tvasu to external and lose it an Alert.
Code:
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4:1
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10:1
Paitra:1
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1:1
-- Thor
-- Raijin
Snoqui:1
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10:1
Kaurukat:1
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-2:1
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0:1
Given the situation, I have just checked M. Thor myself, and it is indeed that six-for-two! One wonders if the Thargoid Council chose to spend three-for-one twice, and moreover:
Why two Spire sites, and not one or three?
Will T. Thor buy a Spire site while it has only five systems, making itself vulnerable?
Will T. Thor buy two Spire sites while it has only seven systems, again making itself vulnerable?
It is an interesting event; it feels as if the Titans arrived with plenty of Spire compound food, opted for some sustainability last year, and are now quite desperate to source more snacks!
It is an interesting event; it feels as if the Titans arrived with plenty of Spire compound food, opted for some sustainability last year, and are now quite desperate to source more snacks!
It is also interesting when you consider they’ve stopped reinforcing the sites entirely, which would make you think that they don’t care for those spires too much… yet, here we are.
Unless this just turns into another “Oya panic alerts” event. (That is more beneficial to the players.)
Even if it was a manual one-off intervention it at least seems to have been carried out sensibly
- it has a cost which explains why they don't always do it (and maybe even limits their ability to repeat the trick)
- it stayed away from immediately negating a system completion
- it followed the apparent "rules" that they normally play by which are presumably intended to represent their own logistical constraints [1]
[1] Possibly the cost of doing this even comes out of the normal Alert budget, but obviously Thor had plenty of that to spare anyway this week.
Well, it is more sensible, yes. That I agree with. Maybe the lords will grace us with GalNet today (in a few hours) to give some further reasoning to it, unless it was purely done as an out-of-lore thing.
But even so I’m not completely sure it will actually change the date for Thor’s vulnerability unless this week is particularly active, and/or it does something really stupid by sacrificing controls to get a spire back when that places it in the vulnerable area - seeing as, so far, spires have had no impact or not a significant one on Titan damage resistance, at best counting as two systems for one (seeing how Hadad was very much still below Moderate resistance despite one of its two remaining controls holding a spire).
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Nothing unusual last week
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 191 control systems and 803 regional systems.
Total connected: 192
Furthest Control: 33.590 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Picenile
24.796
19.205
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; Khwal; etc
Yes
Asletae
28.536
21.530
Khwal;
Yes
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11
28.899
20.237
Kurumanit (9.965 LY); Mahlina; Vucumatha; etc
Yes
HIP 40786
31.389
25.947
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2;
Yes
Daisla
31.962
24.157
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1; Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;
Yes
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-2
35.126
26.317
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;
Yes
Purukuna
34.224
26.920
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;
Yes
Goansi
35.553
27.613
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;
Yes
Njambula
34.910
28.465
HIP 37844;
Yes
Cocijo just has five internal targets, so there's potential to lose it an Alert by taking out e.g. UD-G b12-2.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Thor
Read 4 control systems and 989 regional systems.
Total connected: 4
Furthest Control: 11.470 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Rajuarpai is the only Control at Thor which can attack, and not for another two weeks, so this is probably the end for Thor predictions. No spire reclamation this week, but we need more data from the other two before we can refine predictions.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 178 control systems and 816 regional systems.
Total connected: 179
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Predictions are getting more reliable as the number of things to predict continues to shrink. Thor is expected to be destroyed this week; if it's somehow not, there is a tiny chance that the Titan Emergency Alert mechanism hasn't been restricted to populated systems only and could target Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-15
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 189 control systems and 805 regional systems.
Total connected: 190
Furthest Control: 33.590 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Laumas
29.269
23.090
Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-0; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-3; Col 285 Sector SS-H b11-2; etc
Yes
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3
30.014
24.162
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4; Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-2; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102; etc
Yes
Na Zha
32.027
27.847
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10; Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76; Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-1;
Yes
Wogaiawong
32.122
24.880
Paitra; Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5; Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-4;
Yes
HIP 38134
32.231
26.329
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;
Yes
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-2
35.126
26.317
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-102;
Yes
Purukuna
34.224
26.920
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;
Yes
Goansi
35.553
27.613
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;
Yes
Njambula
34.910
28.465
HIP 37844;
Yes
Again Cocijo gets exactly five internal targets. Recapture of the three outer controls would push the boundary in to lose it an alert, as more obviously would recapture of CA-E b13-1.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 171 control systems and 821 regional systems.
Total connected: 172
Furthest Control: 28.109 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Nu Guang
19.330
11.760
Snoqui;
Yes
Holvandalla
21.476
16.445
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-10; Kaurukat; Humarala; etc
Yes
Balak
23.024
16.575
Kaurukat; Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5; HIP 113785; etc
Raijin gets a pretty unassailable set of internal Alerts this time (with the source for the attack on Aurus being a little uncertain, in a way which might potentially cause inaccuracies in future predictions but shouldn't affect this week)
Code:
-- Recaptures above (2 if confirmed, probability otherwise; exhausts below at exactly 1)
-- Cocijo
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-16:1
Khwal:1
Kurumanit:1
Col 285 Sector UD-G b12-2:1
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-1:1
-- Thor
-- Raijin
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1:1
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-0:1
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0:1
HIP 116542:1
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-6:1
which pushes a few systems into external targeting; this will only be immediately relevant if the Thargoids increase their Alert budget again now that there are fewer Titans to use it.
Systems are listed in order of priority, and in general the first three would be expected to be hit by Invasions, then the next two with Alerts. Predictions made early in the week may be reissued later if Control recaptures materially affect them. If the Control Sphere Edge is reached and targeting mode switches, predictive confidence is lower and the consequences of recaptures may be more significant.
Table key
Target: Name of system considered at threat of Alert. Bold if in Control-based prioritisation it would be eligible for backtrack targeting. Target Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the target. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation. Control Distance: The distance in LY to the Maelstrom of the attacking Control. A primary component of Thargoid prioritisation when attacking outside the control sphere. Attackers: A list of potential Controls to launch the attack from, partial if there are 4 or more. Controls disconnected from their parent maelstrom are marked in italics; controls attacking a system closer to the maelstrom than themselves are underlined; controls which may be skipping an inner uninhabited system to strike an inhabited system further out are struck-through; controls containing a Spire are bold. Once targeting switches to Control-based rather than Target-based prioritisation, only one is listed here. Inhabited: Whether the system contains standing human population.
Revised prediction all good, no sign of the next surprise yet.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Cocijo
Read 183 control systems and 812 regional systems.
Total connected: 184
Furthest Control: 30.355 LY
Target
Target Distance
Control Distance
Attackers
Inhabited?
Sukurbago
24.150
23.878
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-7;
Yes
Chibis
24.821
17.688
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-3; Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5; etc
Yes
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5
26.491
17.824
Mapon; Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-5 (9.976 LY); Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-6; etc
Yes
-
-
-
Control Sphere Edge
-
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146
33.189
24.597
HR 3048;
Yes
HIP 38134
32.231
26.329
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1;
Yes
Purukuna
34.224
26.920
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17;
Yes
Goansi
35.553
27.613
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5;
Yes
Na Zha
32.027
27.847
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10;
Yes
Njambula
34.910
28.465
HIP 37844;
Yes
Ao Kiang
32.255
29.970
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-18;
Yes
Cocijo loses an Alert on the new border position, which is likely to become a semi-regular feature.
-------------------------------------------
Calculating Raijin
Read 154 control systems and 836 regional systems.
Total connected: 155
And so does Raijin, which would need a fair bit of extra budget to get as far as the Maribe backtrack. Quite a lot of potential for the pattern of control clearance to matter here and a revised prediction is likely to be needed.
