CG predictions...
- Thread starter CMDR Serra
- Start date
When fdev cave in they really cave in
I think it's a really cool way to reference what's happened, with a hint that it's possibly changed how they'll approach the 3rd phase. Makes me feel more connected to the game.
I would bet on more size 3/4/6 rather than size 2 and 7.
People complained about the fact the CG was to short and they couldn't get the modules, and it woudl make sense given that
People complained about the fact the CG was to short and they couldn't get the modules, and it woudl make sense given that
So maybe they changed the date to make the CG more accessible and longer...I still wonder what the CG will be, but at least we know that there will be FSDs galore !
The problem is: they're crossing the streams.
fdev specifically said that Galnet was not the way they would announce anything happening to the game after there was a story about two alternate HUDs being developed by companies in-game and everyone decided there was a revamp to the game HUDs. But ofc it wasn't, and people were upset.
If this Galnet is indeed (as seems very likely) actually a game-announcement then it breaks that promise, so now people will again be confused by future Galnets.
fdev - scoring own-goals since 2014 ... the things they'll do to avoid writing a forum post ...
fdev specifically said that Galnet was not the way they would announce anything happening to the game after there was a story about two alternate HUDs being developed by companies in-game and everyone decided there was a revamp to the game HUDs. But ofc it wasn't, and people were upset.
If this Galnet is indeed (as seems very likely) actually a game-announcement then it breaks that promise, so now people will again be confused by future Galnets.
fdev - scoring own-goals since 2014 ... the things they'll do to avoid writing a forum post ...
The HUD thing is probably before my time (in the game, not in life, I don't think). And when I started playing there were literally zero Galnet stories, for MONTHS. So this kind of thing strikes me as really cool, without having been there and done it before.
I can see the potential for problems, sure. But then I suspect someone will complain no matter what they do.
Maybe they're afraid of the forums? I wonder why...
well holy sheet on that trade CG rewards... (both tier 1)
as opposed to the data one:
| Top 10 CMDRs | ~ 17,790 to 45,936 | 16,000,000 Cr |
| Top 10% | ~ 6,481 to 17,789 | 10,000,000 Cr |
| Top 25% | ~ 3,641 to 6,480 | 6,000,000 Cr |
| Top 50% | ~ 1,569 to 3,640 | 4,000,000 Cr |
| Top 75% | ~ 705 to 1,568 | 2,000,000 Cr |
| Top 100% | ~ 1 to 704 | 200,000 Cr |
as opposed to the data one:
| Top 10 CMDRs | ~ 51,368 to 131,425 | 64,000,000 Cr |
| Top 10% | ~ 20,305 to 51,367 | 40,000,000 Cr |
| Top 25% | ~ 5,595 to 20,304 | 24,000,000 Cr |
| Top 50% | ~ 901 to 5,594 | 16,000,000 Cr |
| Top 75% | ~ 177 to 900 | 8,000,000 Cr |
| Top 100% | ~ 1 to 150 | 800,000 Cr |
ooof.... that looks highly unbalanced oO
well, the sensible will take into account the profit you already get by trading, but you know, we are few
Now, that's a bias.
Sure you need to account for profit in trade, but that's something the player can control too. The data one is a no brainer by comparison.
That and the psychology of reward doesn't work that way.
Edit: realistically, many things in the game are often done, without thought to customisation for the specific situation... see the very first meta alloy cg which initially had the same targets as a market- available trade cg.
Almost certainly, FD didn't even look at the reward scales when putting these two into competition.
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And people said this wasn't rigged....
Like I said though, unfortunately that's not how the psychology of rewards work.
People are motivated by the big, infrequent wins, even when lots of small wins is (demonstrably) better.
I thought that too, but it's not working out that way - the Trade CG actually almost pulled back level after the T1 rewards were revealed (around 7%)
The weekend will be interesting - the Data CG has:
- The lead
- Bigger Bonus Payouts
- Shorter supercruise
- Longer SC
- Worse Bonus
- Better overall pay[1]
- But is still in the game, and
- Is more altruistic in RP
[1] Probably
The Top 10% at the moment have done at least 10 cutter runs - each will be around 5M profit on EPC, which is 50M + 10M Bonus, more than the data will pay. But as Jmanis says - it's not the headline number.Edit: Looking a bit further it looks like below the top 25% the Data CG overall pay is better / equivalent. Once T2 is hit it may skew even further in the direction of Data
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More. My Cutter is only equipped for 640 tons, and Inara puts the cut-off at ~8 kt. Only possible thanks to various FC owners. On the other hand, Power Transfer Busses from FCs only gave me ~3 MCr. per run.
Would have loved helping with loading, too, but couldn't catch a FC jumping back.
I think there's two influencing factors here
- perceived moral highground
- trade is a->b shipping, not a relog[1] fest.
But it's still going to be close, because i bet a bunch of people don't care about the plot and just go to the biggest headline figure. Meanwhile, we might see a bunch of FC drop a load some spike at the end.
[1] not that it has to be... people just enjoy uppercutting themselves though.
I wouldn't be surprised if the data CG ran out of steam soon for that reason as it's probably being propped up by the 10% right now, but sustained effort on that is mind numbingly boring.
It's probably getting propped up by people dropping in their inventory or what they can spend to get a quick 8+mil payout.
They're still running extremely close, with the participant ratio keeping in favour of the trade CG as well and not noticeably changed from the first day ratio.
If Frontier can figure out how to get this sort of thing happening every week, it'll be very impressive and very good for the story.
If Frontier can figure out how to get this sort of thing happening every week, it'll be very impressive and very good for the story.