Using Inara, I counted about 100+ systems within 19.43 ly of Sol. Fleet carriers in the mid double digits could still be found in surrounding systems up to 16ly. It's going to be utter mayhem if this happens to be the scenario post maintenance
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If you just want the populated ones, as Cocijo might potentially favor striking those (this has been Thargoid behavior the last couple months). Anything up to LHS 449(Luyten 145-141 is a border case I'm not sure on at 15.02 ly) would be immediately captured, leaving it with 31 controls, and from there to Delta Pavonis would be invasions, up to 34 in number.
If it remains focused on a 10ly radius of populated captures this would leave it with 8 controls, not counting Sol, and up to 23 invasions within a 15ly range (includes Luyten's Star).
Option 2 would not leave it lasting very long if there was a sufficient focus to bring the source of the incursions down rather than fighting its symptoms,
unless invasions actually also contribute to its damage resistance. In which case, well, it would likely be unassailable for a minimum of two weeks.
In any case where the Thargoids don't limpwrist it, this is not going to be looking very happy or like it will be a quick resounding victory for the human side. I might prefer option 1 out of those 2, purely from the player side. And in any case Duamta is very much within the auto-capture radius so I will definitely be keeping an eye on how the Thargoids treat it... because, Aegis HQ location and where they have Seo. If they didn't move her as precaution.
