Elite Dangerous' player base is already established, and a small trickle of money from purchasing new licenses doesn't sustain a game that needs maintenance.
That's not what Frontier's official financial publications say.
New base game purchases are by far the most significant source of income; despite increasing PDLC [2] income by around 7x [3] in November 2024 compared with the pre-March 2024 baseline the overall impact on the game's revenue was much smaller. It's very unlikely that more than 15% of Frontier's income from Elite Dangerous comes from PDLC even now, it's essentially mathematically impossible that more than 10% of their income in March 2024 did. (And that
includes the Odyssey purchases, Arx will be some subset of that)
The publicity (broadly) impact on new game purchases from Powerplay 2 - even though most of those really new players probably never got as far as signing up for a Power! - was a far more significant income generator than the Mandalay (or PP2's minimal extra cosmetic options).
[1] A term they use elsewhere to cover Arx and Odyssey income combined
[2] One measure of just how insignificant this was: Frontier focused very heavily on the
multiplier of the increase, and provided no direct statement of how much that actually meant in £s in the bank. It's possible to infer an upper limit (and not a high one) from other information they did publish.