While I wasn't as high profile a backer as Liq, I still backed with little over a hundred pounds on the words they used and the promises they gave (which to me, is alot of money for just a game).
I'm holding off with asking for a refund just yet based on the hope that your number 1 scenario might be happening (cause seriously, the 'persistent universe is just taking the mick out of me when playing with all the bugs and inane design decisions causing me to get fines and deaths all the time without allowing me to reload an older save).
I can't see myself ever spending a dime on anything these guys had something to do with in the future, though, given the current state of affairs and their disregard for consumers.
I'm in the same boat. I pledged a hefty chunk of cash because I had been waiting for this eventuality for almost 20 years.
Now, since I can't play offline I'll have to return to the waiting game once more. Maybe I'll have to wait another 20 years, but I still hold out hope that whoever decided this will come to his or her senses, or be overturned by someone in charge down the line.
-Toddler