Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Kayvan]

Wow, awesome effort, sorry I couldn't participate. Congratulations all around, tea and medals for everyone.

Did FDev give any announcement that they anticipated such a development and implemented the corresponding events in a recent update?
Cuz if not, my prediction what will happen now is: nothing. :6

 

[Medi0cr3]

Assuming traction towards Leigong next cycle or do samples need to be collected first? If that is the case, then Indra I assume?

Figured we would all continue our symmetry of attack lanes.

Caveat:
Awaiting Titan Taranis to have some new attack vector.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Assuming traction towards Leigong next cycle or do samples need to be collected first? If that is the case, then Indra I assume?

M. Indra will be very difficult; aside from the problem of its final Matrix system being twelfth by distance, the attempt to erode it will incur some very heavy Alerts along the way, due to previously-cleared systems still being in range of attacks from upcoming systems. Ahead of anything such as that at M. Indra, INIV is striking at M. Leigong with the specific mission of reducing the weekly Alert strength!

Much of M. Leigong can be removed even without peripheral progress, although some softening will be very, very welcome and certainly will hasten its removal. After that, though—my recommendation is M. Hadad:

• The final Matrix system at M. Hadad is also its final system, which is perfect for besieging it without concern.
• Without the popularity element at M. Taranis, I would have placed that plan third, behind both M. Leigong and M. Hadad.
• Either way, if Commanders can give us periphery completions at M. Leigong then M. Hadad, I warrant that INIV can clear every single peripheral system in any given week with no need to plan¹ or store anything, including the 15140 for Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-4.

Assuming that then leaves us with maximum 25 Alerts weekly, depleting those three easier Maelstroms ought to allow those stronger Alerts to be incurred more feasibly, a much better position for becoming more selective and favouring popularity a bit more. I think I would suggest M. Oya fourth based on good popularity and fewer systems, then M. Indra fifth based on strong popularity, but really any choice and plan formulation is quite fine from there!

M. Leigong will be reduced to its Matrix systems regardless of whether peripheral progress helps with that, but the same is not true of M. Hadad—it needs Matrix system completion to align with the mission, because arbitrary clearance there ultimately will increase the weekly Alert strength if HIP 30439 remains. I will have to ask everyone very, very nicely for Spire sieges to make that idea feasible!

1. Technically it is possible for Commanders to misalign M. Leigong such that it loses its Matrix systems while HIP 8033 remains, but I think we will be able to respond to that in advance and leave it with ten systems when that otherwise would have occurred.

 

[Kira Goto]

Awaiting Titan Taranis to have some new attack vector.

The people going into Swahku to fix things up around there are probably going to want some high-risk hazard pay.

If they get a chance to, that is.

 

[Leadfoot]

Awaiting Titan Taranis to have some new attack vector.

All eight of them will head here and combine to form...

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Col 285 Sectors PM-B b14-0 (well done PDES!), KW-M c7-12 and ZE-P c6-16, and Arietis Sector MX-U c2-18! All empty Alerts are stopped despite M. Hadad becoming a bit high-maintenance, and there ought to be no pressure at all for Commanders to finish the inhabited Alerts.

There is very little to be gained via peripheral progress today rather than simply completing some weakened systems, which seems to be occurring at 97 i Tauri. Meanwhile at M. Leigong we are holding over half for Hyades Sector KN-K b8-0, the completion of which ought to prevent reactivating an ill-placed Matrix later. New developments at T. Taranis permitting, our main target next week will be Obassi Osaw, where a bit of peripheral progress at M. Leigong will both help it a lot and also enable a sweep which leaves another Final Ten scenario!

Peripheries at 07:30 22nd November 3309:
Four systems with 38% — Indra 19–20 Ly, 1 inhabited, 794–1922 strength
Five systems with 24% — Thor 18–19 Ly, 1 inhabited, 1134–5205 strength

Alerts, Wednesday caution:
Luggerates Alert 58% *58.3% — Oya 22 Ly, 14k Ls outpost, 1473 Ls planet, Peripheral system
Trailing:
HIP 7338 Alert 44% *44.5% — Oya 19 Ly, 2426 Ls outpost, 1660 Ls planet, Peripheral system
Chinas Alert 32% *32.3% — Raijin 17 Ly, 1760 Ls outpost, 1208 Ls planet
Kurumanit Alert 22% *22.1% — Cocijo 20 Ly, 38 Ls outpost, Peripheral system

Evictions:
97 i Tauri Control 86% *87.4% — Indra 21 Ly, 495 strength
Lei Hsini Control 84% — Indra 21 Ly, 632 strength
HIP 22524 Control 58% — Indra 20 Ly, 1922 strength, Peripheral system

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Meanwhile at M. Leigong we are holding over half for Hyades Sector KN-K b8-0, the completion of which ought to prevent reactivating an ill-placed Matrix later. New developments at T. Taranis permitting, our main target next week will be Obassi Osaw, where a bit of peripheral progress at M. Leigong will both help it a lot and also enable a sweep which leaves another Final Ten scenario!

There's also a risk of Leigong's other remaining inhabited system at Arietis AQ-P b5-0 reactivating a spire on the 30th - it's hard to say as it involves details of the outside targeting we don't have pinned down yet, including potentially which way HIP 8033 goes this week.

We'll hopefully know more early next week as to how troublesome a scenario that is - though presumably in the case where a strong periphery attack softens things up, you'd be intending to finish it off anyway?

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Slightly modified plan, then—assume that we are clearing both Obassi Osaw and Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0, but begin with storing one harvest session each so that we have some time to observe the periphery support:

• With high support, hold those payloads and move over to clearing those other weaker systems, starting with the non-peripheral attacker Arietis Sector YE-R b4-0. That extra time will ease the weaker peripheral attackers, and that extra time will ease the two inhabited systems.
• With low support, decide between:
  • Proceeding to clear only the inhabited systems.
  • Clearing Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0, withholding the Obassi Osaw payload and preparing the other side of the Maelstrom for a possible Final Ten.

While conceivable if it seems to be the only way, an unsupported HIP 8033 mission is a quite steep request for me to make of others!

 

[Kira Goto]

So, in mildly related manner, where is the first opportunity that a (very potential) recapture attempt by the Thargoids of a spire site might occur? I’m curious to see whether such an alert would need to be countered by activity at another spire, or could be averted through conventional means. Or if the spire already reactivates there and then to allow activity at it.

(I don’t think we’ve yet fully seen what these will turn out as, judging by new unfinished barnacles popping up with U17 as well - but that’s another whole different subject.)

In the meantime, I suppose, keeping up with the Titan clearing efforts might have the somewhat positive side effect of proving to definitely doesn’t exist Nemesis/Salvation that we do better fighting off a… partial? Invasion, through conventional means, than any of his fancy superweapon toys ever did*.

*Ignoring the first few months of the war where the Thargoids were hitting with full force at each Titan front, and coordination was not yet at a level where it is now.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

So, in mildly related manner, where is the first opportunity that a (very potential) recapture attempt by the Thargoids of a spire site might occur?

Potentially tomorrow morning, if the attacks go where they're predicted to. As you say, what happens in that situation is fairly important to know!

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victories in Kurumanit, Luggerates, HIP 7338 and Hyades Sector KN-K b8-0! An attempt was made at Chinas (88%), so that will be one to watch for late completion, but otherwise that was forty-one systems with the strongest evictions achieved—possible only when combined with a such heavy Spire siege, of course!

All will be watching Hyades Sector FB-N b7-6 to witness whether it remains, disappears or gains progress points and actions to complete it, and indeed if M. Thor would be so kind as to misbehave and reoccupy Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1 we can have our case study without compromising M. Leigong. With an Alert there, the first questions will be whether standard actions complete the system versus the Spire site completing the periphery, after which there will be some discovery value in leaving it to become Control.

Speaking of M. Leigong, as mentioned earlier a bit of periphery support there will be very welcome in week 52! By no means is maximisation needed, especially without its final Matrix system in the periphery, but we will be attacking it either way and a nice 25–50% there would hasten things a lot. If you just want Orthrus kills and are looking for a Spire site, please consider HIP 9180 4 b!

Well done and thank you to all at M. Taranis this week!

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Indeed we have a forty-second—victory in Chinas after all!

Taranis at Hyades Sector FB-N b7-6 is still present with zero systems; the Maelstrom and Titan also remain as before, and rescues can still be conducted there. Over at M. Thor, Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1 has entered Alert, but with no Spire site present message. Whether it can be completed likely will be discovered soon, and leaving it to become Control probably will give us the most new information.

 

[yttrbio]

Just stopped by Col 285 Sector OG-E b12-1. The spire itself looks as dormant as the cleared systems, but I haven't tested any progress methods.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Slightly modified plan, then—assume that we are clearing both Obassi Osaw and Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0, but begin with storing one harvest session each so that we have some time to observe the periphery support:

Sounds good - with the slightly unusual consequence of the expected attack order from Leigong at the end of the week, AQ-P b5-0 shouldn't attack if nothing is done, but if anything else is cleared that didn't attack this week it will get to attack unless it itself is cleared. So working out what can be done based on the periphery support is potentially very important - though does leave "just stockpile until you're certain" as a workable strategy.

Of course if OG-E b12-1 at Thor turns out to be manageable conventionally there's far less to worry about - a 24 LY Alert isn't a particular threat just because it would lead to a spire in future.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Week 52, 23rd November 3309​

Report
Thirty Alerts repelled at Col 285 Sectors YT-F b12-6, SS-H b11-4, UN-H b11-5, LV-F b11-0, ZT-F b12-4, PM-B b14-4, UH-C b13-2, OG-E b12-1, SH-B b14-2, KW-M c7-31, RM-B b14-8 and PM-B b14-3, Cephei Sectors ZE-A c8, AV-Y b6, AF-A c22 and AV-Y b0, Obamumbo, Arietis Sectors LM-V b2-3, KM-W c1-14, WJ-R b4-2, XJ-R b4-2 and FG-Y d38, Pegasi Sectors NN-S b4-4 and QE-N a8-1, HIPs 7277, 21261 and 20577, Scythia, Mahlina and Nu Guang.
Seven Control evictions at Arietis Sectors YE-R b4-0, XJ-R b4-3 and AQ-P b5-0, HIP 9643, Akbakara, 97 i Tauri and Obassi Osaw.
Four recaptured systems starting Recovery are Akbakara, 97 i Tauri, Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0 and Obassi Osaw.
Maelstrom Leigong is unable to attack.

Targets updated at 06:30 30th November 3309
HIP 22524 Control 88% — Indra 20 Ly, 549 strength
Lei Hsini Control 84% *85.3% — Indra 21 Ly, 577 strength
Arietis Sector YE-R b4-3 Matrix 80% *80.4% — Leigong 15 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-3 Control 70% — Indra 20 Ly, empty, 384 strength, Peripheral system
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-3 Control 70% — Indra 19 Ly, empty, 461 strength, Peripheral system
Hyades Sector JH-V c2-13 Control 68% — Indra 19 Ly, empty, 529 strength, Peripheral system
HIP 18075 Alert 40% *41.3% — Thor 21 Ly, 1620 Ls outpost, 2826 Ls planet, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector WY-F b12-1 Control 34% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 2709 strength, Peripheral system
Mapon Control 32% — Cocijo 18 Ly, 6367 strength
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-3 Matrix 26% — Raijin 24 Ly, empty
Iceniguari Control 26% — Raijin 23 Ly, 1996 strength, Peripheral system
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71 Control 26% — Raijin 26 Ly, 1137 strength, Peripheral system
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93 Control 26% — Raijin 24 Ly, empty, 436 strength, Peripheral system
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-0 Control 26% — Raijin 27 Ly, empty, 296 strength, Peripheral system
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2 Control 26% — Raijin 24 Ly, empty, 446 strength, Peripheral system
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-3 Control 26% — Raijin 27 Ly, empty, 306 strength, Peripheral system
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2 Control 26% — Raijin 23 Ly, empty, 487 strength, Peripheral system
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-5 Control 26% — Raijin 25 Ly, empty, 378 strength, Peripheral system
Sugalis Control 26% — Raijin 23 Ly, 1831 strength, Peripheral system
Vistnero Alert 22% *22.5% — Raijin 21 Ly, 147 Ls starport, 521 Ls outpost, 147 Ls planet
Dhang Tzela Control 16% — Thor 19 Ly, 5908 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector RW-D b12-3 Control 14% *15.4% — Thor 18 Ly, empty, 1572 strength, Peripheral system
HIP 113535 Control 14% *15% — Raijin 20 Ly, 3708 strength
Col 285 Sector JA-G b11-1 Control 14% — Thor 19 Ly, empty, 1285 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-58 Control 14% — Thor 18 Ly, empty, 1628 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector QB-E b12-2 Control 14% — Thor 19 Ly, empty, 1284 strength, Peripheral system
HIP 19046 Control 14% — Thor 18 Ly, empty, 1548 strength, Peripheral system
HIP 20679 Control 8% — Indra 18 Ly, 8520 strength
Chnemine Control 6% *7.2% — Raijin 18 Ly, 9005 strength
HIP 8525 Control 6% — Oya 18 Ly, 8604 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-1 Control 4% *4.9% — Hadad 19 Ly, empty, 1309 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-10 Control 4% *4.8% — Cocijo 15 Ly, empty, 3005 strength
HIP 13179 Control 4% *4.7% — Oya 15 Ly, 14.3k strength, Peripheral system
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115 Control 4% *4.2% — Raijin 23 Ly, 2827 strength
Cephei Sector AF-A c9 Control 4% — Oya 16 Ly, empty, 2714 strength, Peripheral system
Daruwach Control 4% — Oya 16 Ly, 13.4k strength, Peripheral system
Sambaho Control 4% — Oya 15 Ly, 17.3k strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-109 Control 4% — Cocijo 22 Ly, empty, 803 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-5 Control 4% — Cocijo 20 Ly, empty, 1177 strength
HIP 38235 Control 2% *3.2% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 4036 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0 Matrix 2% *2.7% — Hadad 19 Ly, empty
HIP 10118 Control 2% *2.6% — Leigong 15 Ly, empty, 2980 strength
HIP 20916 Control 2% — Indra 17 Ly, 10.7k strength
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-2 Control 2% — Hadad 19 Ly, empty, 1561 strength
HIP 116360 Alert 2% — Raijin 21 Ly, 462 Ls planet
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-6 Control 2% — Hadad 20 Ly, empty, 1225 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-4 Control 2% — Cocijo 21 Ly, empty, 905 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector TS-H b11-6 Control 2% — Cocijo 21 Ly, empty, 969 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-3 Control 2% — Cocijo 21 Ly, empty, 886 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-0 Control 2% — Hadad 18 Ly, empty, 1768 strength
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3 Matrix 2% — Hadad 24 Ly, empty
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-1 Control 2% — Hadad 19 Ly, empty, 1510 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-5 Control 2% — Cocijo 21 Ly, empty, 915 strength, Peripheral system
Col 285 Sector XY-F b12-5 Control 2% — Cocijo 21 Ly, empty, 953 strength, Peripheral system
HIP 32764 Control 2% — Hadad 20 Ly, empty, 1040 strength, Peripheral system

Notes
Maelstrom Leigong has reached a Final Twenty scenario.
The Alert report lists predicted attackers, and the Maelstrom maps show Control system connectivity.

Week 51, 16th November 3309​

Report
Thirty-two Alerts repelled at HIPs 21125, 9137 and 7338, Col 285 Sectors EA-Q c5-8, SS-H b11-5, JA-G b11-3, SM-C b13-0, NG-E b12-4, ZE-P c6-15, UN-H b11-3, RM-B b14-2, VS-Z b14-0, WN-Z b14-5, PM-B b14-0, ZE-P c6-16 and KW-M c7-12, Hyadum II, Pegasi Sectors MN-S b4-2, MN-S b4-0, HH-U b3-2 and JH-U b3-8, 71 Tauri, Trianguli Sector CA-A c22, Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1, Aowicha, Arietis Sectors JR-V b2-4 and MX-U c2-18, 79 b Tauri, 86 Rho Tauri, Kurumanit, Luggerates and Chinas!
Nine Control evictions at HR 1737, Hupang, Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-1, Swahku, Hyades Sectors GB-N b7-2, FB-N b7-4, BV-O b6-2 and KN-K b8-0, and Arietis Sector NX-U c2-20.
One Matrix system cleared at HIP 25654.
Three recaptured systems starting Recovery are HR 1737, Hupang and Swahku.
Maelstrom Taranis is depleted!

 

[Jmanis]

Just want to make sure I'm remembering right... there was a time earlier in the war when the Thargoids had just over 1,000 systems yeah?

And now we've cut them down to 300-odd?

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Just want to make sure I'm remembering right... there was a time earlier in the war when the Thargoids had just over 1,000 systems yeah?

And now we've cut them down to 300-odd?

Yes - they peaked at 1186 Control systems in May and it's been gradually down since then, at a fairly constant long-term rate.

Extrapolating the last several months' ~linear trend onwards would have them out of systems entirely by the end of January; in practice if there's no other changes to how the war works it will take considerably longer than that once it gets onto the Maelstroms with stronger cores. Hopefully Frontier has more of a plan than that for "what next", though.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

And now we've cut them down to 300-odd?

To be sure, we could bring the Control total well below 200 quite quickly—and indeed could have done so at any moment in the past month or two—but that would cause a terrible increase in the weekly Alert strength! Said total reduces momentarily while a Maelstrom is being collapsed, but short of a complete victory, stopping that process at any point then incurs stronger Alerts at the new, closer distance.

The INIV mission at the moment is to reduce said strength, so rather than deflating the Control total faster by targeting the weakest systems, we are targeting instead the disjoint regions and systems which can attack backwards. Last week we removed the disjoint system Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-1 at M. Hadad because it would have caused a terrible Alert, despite its ~8200 strength being that of around twenty weaker systems. This week we cannot stop HIP 29226 being attacked, but due to respect for the PDES mission of repelling those Alerts we are going to compensate for that by preventing some at M. Leigong, which is fractured enough that doing so also reduces the weekly strength!

Of course if OG-E b12-1 at Thor turns out to be manageable conventionally there's far less to worry about - a 24 LY Alert isn't a particular threat just because it would lead to a spire in future.

Indeed I imagine I am worrying a bit too much! We should open more simply with the non-peripheral Arietis Sector YE-R b4-0 for 3600 while hoping for some Spire support, but ultimately clear HIP 9643 and Arietis Sector XJ-R b4-3 earlier then gauge Arietis Sector AQ-P b5-0 and Obassi Osaw later.

If the turnout is very strong and nothing else is needed at M. Leigong ahead of its Final Ten moment, I will be eyeing the disjoint Akbakara over at M. Oya.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

If the turnout is very strong and nothing else is needed at M. Leigong ahead of its Final Ten moment, I will be eyeing the disjoint Akbakara over at M. Oya.

That one has the interesting property this week that all else equal it would be swapping a 16 LY uninhabited Alert for a 21 LY uninhabited Alert plus a 24 LY inhabited Alert - though that still comes out clearly ahead on anything but "number of Alerts", I think, and in the longer run certainly should reduce average difficulty.

 

[Kira Goto]

So, basically, we’ve given the Thargoids of Taranis impromptu holidays until they decide being a pet Titan in the backyard of the people at Swahku isn’t good enough for them. I’m going to go and hope that - for the sake of the effort that want into it - this state lasts long enough to have been worth what it took to achieve.

(I for one don’t expect the Titan to just leave.)