Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[Aleks Zuno]

Exactly what it means depends on where the actual numbers end up on the balancing, but it almost certainly means there's no real "stable equilibrium" - if a force can push a maelstrom back at all then it has a very good chance of pushing it all the way to zero.

Very much so, and I know we have covered this before—how the strength need only be inverse square for a successful spherical reduction at some radius to imply success at every radius. Inverse linear would be even softer, but if it will become negative linear then that seems to be extremely soft indeed!

I don't necessarily have faith that an update that intends to improve things won't actually make things harder, because of a lack of comprehension on how these systems work in practice.

Also very much so! Nothing to be done but check strengths again after the update; hopefully the result is that Commanders who want to collapse M. Indra can just go and do so without worrying about aligning peripheries or even using a Spire site necessarily. I know we had a specific plan for that under the existing simulation, but definitely I was not looking forward to explaining why particular systems need to be avoided for a while, and I would be very happy with aborting the idea if it becomes as well for everyone just to get any progress in any nearby systems by any means.

If a Spire site is still required for reaching inward then we may need to manipulate an M. Indra clearance such that the systems from 13th to 22nd all complete close enough to together, but otherwise it may need no other special meddling. Much depends on the new system strength within 10 Ly!

 

[MartinG]

Exactly what it means depends on where the actual numbers end up on the balancing, but it almost certainly means there's no real "stable equilibrium" - if a force can push a maelstrom back at all then it has a very good chance of pushing it all the way to zero. Conversely, if a maelstrom is overcoming its attackers then it can probably expand near-indefinitely.

I think “linear with respect to distance from a Titan” is supposed to mean inverse linear, i.e. strength = a/(x+b) where x is the distance. Then, with a fixed Alert budget per week, a stable equilibrium will be still possible — namely, at some value of x where the combined strength of all Alerts matches the human attack capability. (This of course being a simplified model that does not take into account feedback effects on the human attack capability.) Only with strength independent of or increasing with the distance a stable equilibrium is truly impossible.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I think “linear with respect to distance from a Titan” is supposed to mean inverse linear, i.e. strength = a/(x+b) where x is the distance. Then, with a fixed Alert budget per week, a stable equilibrium will be still possible — namely, at some value of x where the combined strength of all Alerts matches the human attack capability.

Yes. I think the difference though is that with the current system, if it's currently in equilibrium even a relatively large change in human or Thargoid strength only moves the new equilibrium position a few LY which is relatively quickly stabilised to again - whereas with a linear system (or even an inverse-linear one), a relatively small change in strength on either side can move the equilibrium position either below 0 LY or to such a great distance that the Thargoids will never practically reach it by placing Alerts at a constant rate.

The previous system was dampened by the total difficulty of all systems at a particular radius also increasing as you got closer; inverse-linear instead makes the total radius difficulty trend downwards as you get closer.

 

[Spaceman-FXL5]

I think “linear with respect to distance from a Titan” is supposed to mean inverse linear, i.e. strength = a/(x+b) where x is the distance.

Is that in Euclidean or Cartesian Geometry?

Sorry!

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Week 78, 23rd May 3310​

Maelstrom Hadad
Titan: Exploded in HIP 30377 very early Sunday morning.
Remaining are one Spire and one Control system; clearance seems optional. Minor rule discoveries are available if they survive.

Report
Twelve Alerts repelled at Col 285 Sectors EA-Q c5-15, JG-O c6-13 and RW-D b12-0, HIPs 20019, 19781 and 20948, Arietis Sectors NS-R a5-1 and KM-T a4-1, Hyades Sectors ST-Q b5-4 and IH-U b3-3, Obamumbo and Isla.
Ten Invasions defended at Koko Oh, Vistnero, Theemim, Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146, HIPs 22566, 20509, 117177 and 19757, 65 Kappa Tauri and Kagutsuchi.
Fifteen Control evictions at Col 285 Sectors HP-H b10-3 and HF-G b11-2, Arietis Sectors OS-R a5-0, TY-P a6-1, TY-P a6-2, LM-V b2-2, DA-Z b3 and KM-T a4-0, Hyades Sectors PI-S b4-1, JH-U b3-4 and BR-J a10-0, and HIPs 22203, 22422, 21008 and 21099.
The defended Invasion systems will start Recovery.
Titan Hadad has overheated and exploded.

Targets updated at 06:30 30th May 3310
Nibelaako Invasion 88% *89% — Raijin 22 Ly, 6 ports, 16k Ls outpost + 16k Ls outpost attack
Maribe Invasion 66% *66.9% — Raijin 28 Ly, 0 ports, 1235 Ls outpost damage
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d46 Alert 50% — Raijin 28 Ly
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-3 Control 44% *45% — Raijin 27 Ly, 406 strength
Asletae Invasion 44% — Cocijo 29 Ly, 4 ports, 22 Ls outpost attack
HIP 20616 Alert 36% *36.2% — Indra 22 Ly, 176k Ls planet
Pegasi Sector LN-S b4-0 Alert 26% *27.8% — Raijin 29 Ly
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5 Alert 26% *26.5% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Laumas Alert 26% — Cocijo 29 Ly, 255 Ls starport, 361 Ls outpost
Wogaiawong Invasion 22% *23.3% — Cocijo 32 Ly, 3 ports, 106 Ls outpost attack
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-3 Alert 20% *20.4% — Cocijo 28 Ly
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9 Control 20% *20.3% — Indra 25 Ly, 822 strength
Kissi Alert 20% — Raijin 29 Ly, 60k Ls outpost
Pegasi Sector FB-X c1-24 Alert 18% — Raijin 28 Ly
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76 Alert 16% *17.9% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152 Alert 16% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3 Alert 14% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Almar Control 12% *12.9% — Thor 32 Ly, 1302 strength
Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-5 Alert 12% — Cocijo 30 Ly
HIP 19870 Matrix 10% — Indra 14 Ly
Unktety Alert 10% — Thor 25 Ly, 92 Ls outpost, 38 Ls planet
37 A1 Tauri Control 10% — Indra 25 Ly, 837 strength
Hyades Sector QI-S b4-2 Control 10% — Indra 25 Ly, 789 strength
Arietis Sector KM-T a4-2 Control 10% — Indra 25 Ly, 781 strength
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4 Control 10% — Indra 25 Ly, 771 strength
HIP 20741 Control 8% *9.6% — Indra 24 Ly, 1683 strength
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-92 Alert 8% — Raijin 29 Ly
HIP 20482 Control 8% — Indra 25 Ly, 945 strength
HIP 21788 Control 8% — Indra 25 Ly, 920 strength
HIP 30439 Matrix 6% *7.3% — Hadad 4 Ly
Attada Invasion 6% *7% — Raijin 28 Ly, 0 ports, 594 Ls outpost damage
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-4 Control 6% *6.7% — Hadad 6 Ly, 130.5k strength
Pegasi Sector KH-V c2-6 Alert 6% — Raijin 29 Ly
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25 Alert 6% — Cocijo 29 Ly
HIP 37520 Alert 4% *5.4% — Cocijo 30 Ly, 312k Ls outpost
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-4 Alert 4% *5.3% — Raijin 29 Ly
Col 285 Sector AP-F b12-4 Control 4% — Cocijo 32 Ly, 356 strength
HIP 39468 Control 4% — Cocijo 30 Ly, 366 strength
HIP 22524 Control 4% — Indra 20 Ly, 4392 strength
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4 Control 4% — Indra 24 Ly, 1080 strength
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-82 Control 4% — Cocijo 32 Ly, 1434 strength
Col 285 Sector TC-J b10-0 Control 4% — Cocijo 32 Ly, 1431 strength
Col 285 Sector US-H b11-5 Control 4% — Cocijo 33 Ly, 1430 strength
HIP 39186 Control 4% — Cocijo 34 Ly, 349 strength
HIP 18702 Control 2% *3.5% — Thor 35 Ly, 1422 strength
Varlawoth Control 2% *2.3% — Thor 29 Ly, 1477 strength
70 Tauri Control 2% — Indra 21 Ly, 3956 strength
Hyadum I Control 2% — Indra 14 Ly, 9413 strength
Bormuninus Alert 2% — Raijin 24 Ly, 45 Ls outpost, 45 Ls planet
Pegasi Sector LY-O a7-1 Control 2% — Raijin 28 Ly, 551 strength
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-7 Control 2% — Raijin 29 Ly, 504 strength
Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-26 Control 2% — Raijin 28 Ly, 541 strength
Col 285 Sector KV-F b11-1 Control 2% — Thor 33 Ly, 357 strength
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-1 Control 2% — Thor 32 Ly, 366 strength
Col 285 Sector LB-O c6-3 Control 2% — Thor 31 Ly, 369 strength
HIP 17310 Control 2% — Thor 33 Ly, 359 strength
Hyades Sector DX-H a11-1 Control 2% — Indra 24 Ly, 1141 strength

Notes
A quite big Thargoid war overhaul will arrive later in the week.
The Alert report lists predicted attackers.

Week 77, 16th May 3310​

Report
Ten Alerts repelled at Muruidooges, Col 285 Sectors WC-C b13-2, HL-O c6-14, KB-O c6-10, MQ-F b11-3, JG-O c6-15 and GF-G b11-5, Synuefe OU-D b45-3, Arietis Sector JR-V b2-2 and 68 Tauri.
Six Invasions defended at Holvandalla, HR 1403, HIPs 20527 and 19157, Pegasi Sector HW-V b2-0 and Aurus.
Twelve Control evictions at Col 285 Sectors VN-Z b14-0, US-Z b14-3, US-Z b14-5, TS-Z b14-8, KW-M c7-6, RN-T d3-94, RH-B b14-2, US-Z b14-6, GP-H b10-3, EA-Q c5-12, IA-G b11-1 and EA-Q c5-16.
One Matrix system cleared at Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-7.
The defended Invasion systems will start Recovery.

 

[MartinG]

Is that in Euclidean or Cartesian Geometry?

Taking the question more seriously than it deserves: it does not matter, because the definition of distance is the same up to an isomorphism

 

[Phil W]

Just to clarify how the new system works - System difficulty has been effectively simplified and is now a more simple, linear relationship. System difficulty still gets higher the closer the system is to a Titan, but is intended that even close systems are now entirely contestable via in system action (e.g. AXCZs)

Here is a 100% professionally drawn example.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

System difficulty has been effectively simplified and is now a more simple, linear relationship.

Thank you for communicating it! That should be what I called negative linear earlier, which introduces an interesting question about the distance at which it crosses zero—although in practice, we know the present strength is adjusted as a polygon with five-light-year linear junctions (3309, 3310), so presumably it was just a case of making them colinear within ~50 Ly then a constant minimum thereafter.

If AX Conflict zones become a preferred action, I believe a third Python 2 will rise from the salvaged and scattered module components of my Interceptor-hunting Alliance Chieftain and Fer-de-Lance!

 

[c44448]

now the question is, if the new system has overall less samples or more samples per titan.
I use samples just as a value. This could also mean that titans with a high ammount of systems need way more work to clear, but at least its an almost consistent ammount of work needed to progress.

 

[ToxicCMDR]

Dear FDevs, yesterday I tried to attack Hadad for an hour in open play. No matter what I did (and other CMDRs) we always got into broken instance where the Titan did not open its thermal vents though the sound of opening vents was present. Fix it!

 

[ToxicCMDR]

Why there are so many goids around Hadad in open, hundreds of them? My PC hardly can handle the load. Anyhow, I was able to make about 10M in bonds attacking its core.

 

[CMDR Protomaniac]

Why there are so many goids around Hadad in open, hundreds of them? ...

Because just like me, they long to be close to you.

 

[MartinG]

Titan Hadad’s final heart has been destroyed at approximately 02:40 UTC.

 

[Grimscrub]

Well, the kaboom will be well after I pass out so, moving on personally.
I'll be honest, wasn't sure what to do now for best, don't want to throw people at existing buy orders only for tuesday to do something to samples and render all efforts moot/make it seem like opportunist baloney, but I don't want to leave it be either...

So, buy order set, best case one of the further in systems is covered, worst case - it's my own credits I'm burning and at least showed willing.

Target​	Strength​	Held (Demand)​	Carrier​	Location​
HIP 20577​	~9401​	0 (10,000)​	[AXI] Invicta X5Q-83N​	78 Theta-2 Tauri​

 

[Cori]

Titan Hadad’s final heart has been destroyed at approximately 02:40 UTC.

Holy crud, already? Guess I'm not going back for another run today after all. Nor am I going to watch it blow up at four in the morning; it can do that without me.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Okay! After quite the Titan rush I am just now reviewing where we are with M. Indra:

• Shortly after I posted a M. Indra clearance outline, Frontier announced a Thargoid war overhaul which may avert the need for any special strategy; at present it is a case of proceeding as if such a plan is needed, with the future option just to deliver payloads for normal completion if it becomes as well to do so.
• Provided here, the PDES spreadsheet is correct to use for coordinating actions and avoiding duplication. By all means assist open orders, with the understanding that we have no way to know whether the quantities will be too little or too much after update 18.06.
• Some M. Indra systems listed kindly here can not be attacked by its inner systems and thus can be cleared at any time, but mind that some already have payloads gathered as recorded on the spreadsheet.

I will not be able to ask the INIV research wing for help with stored payloads until after the update and we know whether it is still needed and what the new strengths are, but completing systems before the update should be quite fine! Combining those lists, the M. Indra systems which can be cleared at any time but may have stored payloads are:

System	Strength	Note
Arietis Sector TY-P a6-2	811	Done
Hyades Sector BR-J a10-0	850	853 held by Aquitaine [AGIS]
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4	856	896 held by Aquitaine [AGIS]
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-2	857	Delivered
HIP 22203	864	Delivered
Arietis Sector KM-T a4-2	867	Order open at Sword of Aegis
Arietis Sector KM-T a4-0	897	Done
37 A1 Tauri	930	940 held by Aquitaine [AGIS]
HIP 21788	1000	Order open at Aquitaine [AGIS]
Arietis Sector DQ-Y c9	1031
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-4	1124
HIP 19789	1233
Hyades Sector AR-J a10-0	1324
HIP 22422	1376	Done
Arietis Sector FL-X b1-0	1390
Arietis Sector OS-R a5-0	1423	Done
Arietis Sector TY-P a6-1	1435	Done
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-1	1593	Done
HIP 21008	1615	Done
Hyades Sector ON-S b4-6	1644
Hyades Sector NN-S b4-0	1673
Arietis Sector NH-V b2-0	1687
HIP 20890	3464
HIP 22496	3532

I have not scheduled any yet, but I will be sure to mention any we intend to complete!

 

[ToxicCMDR]

When do we receive a reward for destroying Hadad, just after it makes kaboom tonight or after next weekly tick?

 

[Adam_Aster]

When do we receive a reward for destroying Hadad, just after it makes kaboom tonight or after next weekly tick?

The tick, iirc. But not specifically the one right after maintenance, it may be one of the other ticks after on the same day. But usually on that same day as the weekly tick.

 

[Fizzatron]

I missed out It was my son's birthday/graduation so I'm cool with it. o7 to all who took care of it. I will be fine with 7 decals.

 

[Felix DiCestria]

When do we receive a reward for destroying Hadad, just after it makes kaboom tonight or after next weekly tick?

Looking at the fall of Oya;
Last heart down 20th April.
Meltdown 21st April.
Thargsday tick 25th April.
Rewards received 26th April.