Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

I’d have been surprised if they’d run samples into the ground completely, seeing as the idea appears to be to make all actions more or less equally viable for what remains of the war.

Curious to see what results of the combat rebalance will be, though. That’s likely to be of (more) interest to more people.
 
...so ~0.007989 approx for 102 samples for swahku.
Previously ~107 samples would have been worth 0.0007 warprogress... so, initial implication - unless 10 people all had the same idea, seems samples are notably more effective than they used to be, at least for inhabited systems 5.36Ly from an ex titan?

Thank you for the test! Indeed unless there are special rules for dead Titan cleanup, it is therefore likely that:
  • Research still works, although presumably (and hopefully!) it is now comparable to Conflict zones.
  • The inner system strength is reduced significantly, even less than the amount needed previously with Spire support.
Hoping to have some results of our own later this evening, which will be around 5–15 Ly, so definitely a few extra ~20 Ly measurements will give us a quite nice picture!
 
On the subject of spire support, I'll have to get used to managing those carefully it seems - alongside the patchnotes mentioning they don't lose progress on weekly tick, seems the "if it isn't outer ten, it does not move" is over, from 19870.
1716916439767.png
 
{ "timestamp":"2024-05-28T17:01:39Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"70 Tauri", [...] "WarProgress":0.003657,
{ "timestamp":"2024-05-28T17:30:33Z", "event":"CollectCargo", "Type":"ThargoidScoutTissueSample", "Type_Localised":"Thargoid Scout Tissue Sample", "Stolen":false }
{ "timestamp":"2024-05-28T17:30:36Z", "event":"Cargo", "Vessel":"Ship", "Count":97 }
{ "timestamp":"2024-05-28T18:16:36Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"70 Tauri", [...] "WarProgress":0.012208,

~0.008551 for 97... seems to line up nearer 11,300 and change? So I guess the artist's rendition showing start of line higher checks out, if 70 Tauri was estimated nearer 4k samples before.
0 scout kills for my numbers c/o cold conda build, can't exclude external action though.
 
CMDRs, for today I have only one question:
Where do we kill bugs?

We are a bit too amid-testing-everything for a proper answer, but if you are able to mount a decent Conflict Zone attack, perhaps try its effects upon a system such as HIP 21099? If it completes swiftly that way then the general answer becomes Conflict zones at M. Indra systems in distance order, starting with the farthest from the Titan.
 
Okay—some results! To start with some pictures, which are all based on Scout samples after update 18.06, we have this for populated Control:

Week 78 IC 0-25.png

The left-most is the earlier Swahku result, followed by Leunii and Gluschen, then the right-most is the earlier 70 Tauri result. Minding that the constant strength within 5 Ly should be considered unknown, definitely that looks linear! It meets the previous strength at around 16.7 Ly, within which it is significantly weaker and beyond which it is significantly stronger.

We have only a couple of inner system results for empty Control at the moment:

Week 78 UC 0-25.png

An extrapolation beyond 10 Ly of course, but it should be relatively close to that, again with the inner 5 Ly unknown and this time meeting the previous strength at around 15.5 Ly. The lower inner strength is nice of course, but here the strength beyond 15.5 Ly is extremely higher—at least via Scout samples, that is now two evenings here for a single system (albeit any system regardless of Titan distance).

Based on that alone, a large purge would take a such absurdly long time and number of Carriers to prepare that very probably it is as well just to clear as many systems as possible, especially with the rolling peripheral progress appearing to work. Alerts will be important to clear swiftly, then it should be quite fine to use the limited Spire resource on the Control systems, at any given Titan distance.

Orthrus-hunting and Conflict zones are the most important tests now, where the hope is that those are now at least as efficient as Research! Incidentally, one other loose morsel of data is that ten Scouts progressed Gluschen with 0.000027, which means that one Research sample (from a Scout) is worth somewhere between 28.54 and 30.74 Scout kills.

Populated systemDistancePriorPayloadPosteriorStrength
Swahku5.359717 Ly0.0019991020.00998812766–12770
Leunii6.099196 Ly01130.00889812698–12701
Gluschen8.135150 Ly0.000027750.00602112510–12514
70 Tauri20.962648 Ly0.003657970.01220811342–11345
Empty systemDistancePriorPayloadPosteriorStrength
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-155.631247 Ly0.0000021060.0138677644–7646
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-88.716005 Ly01080.0144467475–7477





Unfortunately the amounts aboard the Aquitaine are relatively small now, much more so than expected; the best thing I can think to do is:
  • Complete Hyades Sector BR-J a10-0 this week without delivering the held payload, forfeiting the payload but securing the almost-complete system.
  • Finish Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4 and HIP 21099 similarly this week.
  • Either:
    • Deliver the Aquitaine cargo at the beginning of week 79, placing a reasonable bit of progress onto the map, and designate those systems for completion by various means.
    • Wait and see, perhaps forfeiting 1–2 more smaller payloads on it.
    • Try to separate the payloads, in the hope of delivering the outer systems in week 79 and holding the mid-distance systems for later.
  • Generally hope that just completing systems is the best thing to do.
INIV should be able to finish those three systems at least; perhaps one tonight if I get things into position promptly, but all before Thursday either way. Do say if there are any major Conflict zone drives, to avoid duplication there!
 
On the far side to start building data, 1x scout(Regenerator tbe) to try and see how combat looks nowadays
Code:
{ "timestamp":"2024-05-28T21:16:45Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"70 Tauri", [...] "WarProgress":0.012613,
{ "timestamp":"2024-05-28T21:23:53Z", "event":"FactionKillBond", "Reward":80000, "AwardingFaction":"$faction_PilotsFederation;", "AwardingFaction_Localised":"Pilots' Federation", "VictimFaction":"$faction_Thargoid;", "VictimFaction_Localised":"Thargoids" }
{ "timestamp":"2024-05-28T22:20:36Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"70 Tauri", "[...] "WarProgress":0.012616,
Non CZ/no missions, just drop from supercruise, boost away from interceptor, pop scout.
Nearing midnight, will work on interceptors with a better ship tomorrow, time permitting.

Did notice thanks to that and a false start test the previous hour that scouts are 80,000Cr again, marauder and specialised alike.
 
Incidentally, one other loose morsel of data is that ten Scouts progressed Gluschen with 0.000027,
So, assuming my brain hasn’t gone wrong on the math by dividing 1 with 0.000027(and it may well have because it’s not exactly my strength), that would make roughly 37,000 Scout kills for a full system clear at 8-ish ly from a Titan?

I guess that might be more doable… if other types of kills are involved as well. Seems like having spire support action on top of in-system work may still be preferable anyway, though.

(Saying that, I wonder how much of a double-edged sword this change to the difficulty distribution is, looking at how far Raijin and Cocijo have spread already and will continue to. Sure, the inner core is weaker - 10 or more times? - but everything else beyond the 20ly line will equally require quite a bit more work.)
 
System 29ly from Titan.

Before 1 orthrus kill: 3.0645%
After 1 orthrus kill: 4.1933%

1.1288% for an orthrus kill.

That gives Orthruses the value of approximately 120 tissue samples.


Correction, that was accidentally using the inhabited system numbers. Will need some accurate uninhabited system data to make an accurate prediction.
 
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So, assuming my brain hasn’t gone wrong on the math by dividing 1 with 0.000027(and it may well have because it’s not exactly my strength), that would make roughly 37,000 Scout kills for a full system clear at 8-ish ly from a Titan?

Poor brain read the statement wrongly and missed that it was ten Scout kills! The resulting range for Gluschen using Scout kills as the unit is 357142.9–384615.4. For the moment though, it would be best to retain the Scout sample as the unit, and note that one needs around 30 Scout kills per one sample.


System 29ly from Titan.
Before 1 orthrus kill: 3.0645%
After 1 orthrus kill: 4.1933%
1.1288% for an orthrus kill.
That gives Orthruses the value of approximately 120 tissue samples.

Thank you!

Assuming that was an Alert system, I have not yet seen anything which establishes the Alert system strength, without which one cannot be sure of the comparison between Orthrus and Research. That said, 1.1288% for a single Orthrus is very encouraging! Definitely Thursdays should be an Orthrus massacre then, if such moves peripheral progress onto Control systems that efficiently.
 
Okay—some results! To start with some pictures, which are all based on Scout samples after update 18.06, we have this for populated Control:


The left-most is the earlier Swahku result, followed by Leunii and Gluschen, then the right-most is the earlier 70 Tauri result. Minding that the constant strength within 5 Ly should be considered unknown, definitely that looks linear! It meets the previous strength at around 16.7 Ly, within which it is significantly weaker and beyond which it is significantly stronger.

We have only a couple of inner system results for empty Control at the moment:


An extrapolation beyond 10 Ly of course, but it should be relatively close to that, again with the inner 5 Ly unknown and this time meeting the previous strength at around 15.5 Ly. The lower inner strength is nice of course, but here the strength beyond 15.5 Ly is extremely higher—at least via Scout samples, that is now two evenings here for a single system (albeit any system regardless of Titan distance).

Based on that alone, a large purge would take a such absurdly long time and number of Carriers to prepare that very probably it is as well just to clear as many systems as possible, especially with the rolling peripheral progress appearing to work. Alerts will be important to clear swiftly, then it should be quite fine to use the limited Spire resource on the Control systems, at any given Titan distance.

Orthrus-hunting and Conflict zones are the most important tests now, where the hope is that those are now at least as efficient as Research! Incidentally, one other loose morsel of data is that ten Scouts progressed Gluschen with 0.000027, which means that one Research sample (from a Scout) is worth somewhere between 28.54 and 30.74 Scout kills.

Populated systemDistancePriorPayloadPosteriorStrength
Swahku5.359717 Ly0.0019991020.00998812766–12770
Leunii6.099196 Ly01130.00889812698–12701
Gluschen8.135150 Ly0.000027750.00602112510–12514
70 Tauri20.962648 Ly0.003657970.01220811342–11345
Empty systemDistancePriorPayloadPosteriorStrength
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-155.631247 Ly0.0000021060.0138677644–7646
Col 285 Sector IG-O c6-88.716005 Ly01080.0144467475–7477





Unfortunately the amounts aboard the Aquitaine are relatively small now, much more so than expected; the best thing I can think to do is:
  • Complete Hyades Sector BR-J a10-0 this week without delivering the held payload, forfeiting the payload but securing the almost-complete system.
  • Finish Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4 and HIP 21099 similarly this week.
  • Either:
    • Deliver the Aquitaine cargo at the beginning of week 79, placing a reasonable bit of progress onto the map, and designate those systems for completion by various means.
    • Wait and see, perhaps forfeiting 1–2 more smaller payloads on it.
    • Try to separate the payloads, in the hope of delivering the outer systems in week 79 and holding the mid-distance systems for later.
  • Generally hope that just completing systems is the best thing to do.
INIV should be able to finish those three systems at least; perhaps one tonight if I get things into position promptly, but all before Thursday either way. Do say if there are any major Conflict zone drives, to avoid duplication there!
I'm inclined to deliver at the beginning of week 79, but we are willing to take guidance to best help Indra people.
 
For the moment though, it would be best to retain the Scout sample as the unit, and note that one needs around 30 Scout kills per one sample.
Well, fair enough. Looks like Scout kills aren’t really going to take a (formerly inhabited) system anywhere quickly(especially if a nearly 21ly system only gets 0.0003% progress from a Scout kill) but I suppose that’s to be expected. Having some figures for the Interceptor kills(if at all possible) could be of value to determine the effectiveness of combat proper, though I realize getting them may not be as straightforward.

… and I definitely shouldn’t be trying my hand at the maths past midnight.

Was there any plan to determine if Cyclops and other samples may now potentially be worth more than those of Scouts?
 
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Woke up at 5am so, made use of the time.
The cyclops test. Given I arrived in system before ~15-20 past, went back to double-check the progress for That hour after the kill.

{ "timestamp":"2024-05-29T04:09:19Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"70 Tauri", [...] "WarProgress":0.015672,
{ "timestamp":"2024-05-29T04:17:15Z", "event":"FactionKillBond", "Reward":8000000, "AwardingFaction":"$faction_PilotsFederation;", "AwardingFaction_Localised":"Pilots' Federation", "VictimFaction":"$faction_Thargoid;", "VictimFaction_Localised":"Thargoids" }
{ "timestamp":"2024-05-29T04:20:57Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"70 Tauri", [...] "WarProgress":0.015672,
-- So reading the same after the expected time, implies either its updating earlier (which has been seen after an off-tick downtime before) or nice and quiet over there
{ "timestamp":"2024-05-29T05:20:41Z", "event":"FSDJump", "Taxi":false, "Multicrew":false, "StarSystem":"70 Tauri", [...] "WarProgress":0.016049,

Would put x1 cyclops (Solo) kill at 0.000377 warprogress for 70 Tauri, approx 2653 solo kills to secure the system fwiw - in the past wing kills i believe multiplied the contribution so, could get that down to <700 total with a wing of 4 in theory.
 
I have some new numbers as well. This is from work in the following control systems and actions in Cocijo. This is also going from what Grim was saying earlier about scouts seeming negligible:

Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-4 (25.04 Ly to Titan) - USS Pod Salvage

Starting Progress = 0.0%
Expected Strength = ~6580
Items Collected = 22 Damaged, 25 Occupied, 4 Black Box, 51 Total
Estimated Work Duration = 30 Minutes
New WarProgress = 0.011072 = 1.1072%
Strength Equivalent = 72.85376 = 1.43/item

Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-106 (23.03 Ly to Titan) - Combat Scythe Hunting

Starting Progress = 0.0%
Expected Strength = ~6695
Thargoids Killed = 10 Scythe + 14 Scouts
Estimated Work Duration = 30 Minutes
New WarProgress = 0.012867 = 1.2867%
Strength Equivalent = 86.145 = 8.6/Scythe

Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5 (26.49 Ly to Titan)(Inhabited Counterstrike) - Solo Low Intensity AX CZ

Starting Progress = 1.1306%
Expected Strength = ~10850
Thargoids Killed = 2 Basilisk, 3 Clops, ~20 Scouts (Aussi Tracker wasn't counting), 1 Low AX CZ clear up but not including Hydra
New WarProgress = 0.014490 = 1.449%
Strength Equivalent = 157.22 / Battle of similar nature

Njana (26.33 Ly to Titan)(Inhabited Counterstrike) - Single Cyclops

Starting Progress = 0.00%
Expected Strength = ~10870
Thargoids Killed = 1 Cyclops
New WarProgress = 0.000395 = 0.0395%
Strength Equivalent = 4.29/Cyclops

Wogaiawong (32.12 Ly to Titan - Invasion) - Megaship Hatch Breaking
Starting Progress = 0.099032 = 9.90%
Expected Strength = Unknown
Items Collected = 195 Pods
Estimated Work Duration = <20 Minutes
New WarProgress = 0.104571 = 10.46% (0.56% increase)
Strength Equivalent = Pending
 
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Thank you both for the extra testing!

Additional: I read one completely wrong number from a spreadsheet earlier and had to update everything.


Would put x1 cyclops (Solo) kill at 0.000377 warprogress for 70 Tauri, approx 2653 solo kills to secure the system

The possible range there is 2645.5–2659.6; against the known range for Scout samples, that makes one Cyclops worth 134.28–145.38 samples, very much worth doing! That may turn out to be the highly-composite 144 rather than 140, but either way I think that means a solo Commander could bring a no-engineering Python 1 with EAX Multi-cannons into a Conflict zone, reach and destroy the double Cyclops, then leave to repair—and still have been more effective than a full Research wing for the same amount of time.

That makes one Cyclops worth 4.26–4.29 Scout samples, modest but much better than the one-quarter or so it was before.


Items Collected = 22 Damaged, 25 Occupied, 4 Black Box, 51 Total
Strength Equivalent = 72.85376 = 1.43/item

Those would need separating to be sure what is occurring there, but either way, salvage seems very much more worth doing than it was before!


Thargoids Killed = 10 Scythe + 14 Scouts
New WarProgress = 0.012867 = 1.2867%
Strength Equivalent = 86.145 = 8.6/Scythe

Looks right, and a modest contribution; I have a extrapolated strength at 6693.8, the numbers for which I notice now I forgot completely to include, and the Scythe kill range becomes an estimated 8.612–8.613 versus a Scout sample if I take into account your Scout kills.


Thargoids Killed = 2 Basilisk, 3 Clops, ~20 Scouts (Aussi Tracker wasn't counting), 1 Low AX CZ clear up but not including Hydra
Strength Equivalent = 157.22 / Battle of similar nature

Using the earlier Cyclops value and accounting a bit for the Scouts and Conflict zone bonds, that makes one Basilisk worth approximately 180!

Unless a Basilisk is worth a massive amount more than a Cyclops, I think that means a cleared Conflict Zone is driving the relatively large strength.


Starting Progress = 0.00%
Expected Strength = ~10870
Thargoids Killed = 1 Cyclops
New WarProgress = 0.000395 = 0.0395%
Strength Equivalent = 4.29/Cyclops

Far away from all previous results; perhaps your Cyclops kill occurred around one minute past the hour, such that the measurement would need to be around 20 minutes past the next hour?

Exactly within the range estimated by the earlier Cyclops result!
 
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One thing that was interesting with Wogaiawong is that it seems that Pods in Invasion systems are still a little weaker but a Fast, Hi-Cap Salvage Ship with an AX Guard could really make a dent. I'd like to run some tests next cycle, but I don't think there will be many Indra Invasions since Oreos have such a high strength now and there's only 1.5 alerts left.
 
So as regards Thursday; would it be preferred for saboteurs to hold off until the alerts are cleared?

Very much so, yes! As best we know now, any weak Alerts should be Orthrus-hunted away promptly before they absorb the limited Spire resource. Beyond that, I consider it not the worst idea for peripheral progress to help strong Alerts a bit, although definitely those should be Orthrus-hunted and mission-completed away soon after.

Beyond that, all we really need now is that enemy Alerts minus our victories remains negative weekly to effect a collapse, which seems especially straightforward now that completed Alerts no longer block peripheral progress from reaching inward!

Clearly it could be done eventually without peripheral progress, but for us, a Spire-weakened Control selection makes the difference between having to talk about evenings per system and being able to continue talking about systems per evening.
 
Well, it's unfortunate that we waited, but I will be moving Aquitaine [AGIS] into Haritanis and will set up the market order for 10,541 samples to be unloaded on Thursday, minimum price, of course. With help, we can make quick work of it and it will still help significantly.

If it helps with measuring the new values, the amount of samples collected for each system were either exact or surplus to the amount required pre-update.
Edit: Is there any word on the effectiveness of rescues and supplies, yet?

Target SystemSamples CollectedTotal Samples NeededRemaining SamplesSurplus

37 A1 Tauri940930010
77 Theta-1 Tauri22952256039
92 Sigma-2 Tauri19151878037
Arietis Sector JR-V b2-31499149900
Hyades Sector BR-J a10-085385003
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-5801787014
Hyades Sector LC-U b3-4896856040
Hyades Sector UO-Q b5-2846790056
 
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