Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

[[VR] Mad Mike]

2 hydras in open at macedo hub.... i cant take alone.... if no one turns up will leave and reset.. depends if anyone wanys a challenge. hip 20485

 

[MVBanks]

2 hydras in open at macedo hub.... i cant take alone.... if no one turns up will leave and reset.. depends if anyone wanys a challenge. hip 20485

You should ask for reinforcements in system chat, here in the forum probably no one will see your message until it's late. Just couple of minutes ago I was in Kazantsev, but now I'm out of the game.

 

[Cunning Plan]

2 hydras in open at macedo hub.... i cant take alone.... if no one turns up will leave and reset.. depends if anyone wanys a challenge. hip 20485

A couple of hours ago I was constantly interdicted everywhere in hip 20485 and then mauled at one of the stations by Hydras. I'm a rank amateur at thargoid combat and am now currently cowering at Shinn Enterprise trying regain my nerve! It didn't help that I failed to recognise what I was attacking, on the plus side I did survive it all....just!

 

[[VR] Mad Mike]

You should ask for reinforcements in system chat, here in the forum probably no one will see your message until it's late. Just couple of minutes ago I was in Kazantsev, but now I'm out of the game.

ok shameful admission warning.........i have been playing the game since 2014 and ............. i didnt know how to change from local to system chat! yes daft i know......

i between trying to type in chat in the game in VR (which is a pain), as well as run, and then dock, combined with panic as i really dont like losing ships in the game (already lost one to thargoids since the war started) i managed to hide with 10% hull .

i gave up in the end.

i did manage to take down my 1st basilisk with help from another player so happy with that.

 

[Phill P]

It was stated very confidently; I'm not that confident in the actual result as there are plenty of alternative explanations available.

What we've got is a (large and organised, yes) group doing one activity in the first half of the week, and another in the second, and seeing that the second half has faster progress. That's important data, but while it could be caused by the second activity being more efficient, it could also be caused by, for example (some of which I think are highly unlikely, definitely, but can't be ruled out with just one data point):

It wasn't. Rescues alone work faster in an Invasion system than deliveries alone, and vice versa in Alert systems. This was not discovered with a single data point but by repeated observation. Since then we have discovered that doing rescues and deliveries together in those systems negates some of the disadvantage of doing either alone and any system where the 4 activities can be combined is faster to clear.

For comparison, there's growing evidence that the further away from a Maelstrom a system is, the easier it is to win.

There's no evidence that the distance from the maelstrom makes any difference at all to the effort needed to clear an Invasion or Alert system. Controlled systems have become easier to clear since AXI tried it just before Xmas, the targets have been quietly dropped between then and now.

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

To be fair AXI had a crack at previously populated control systems, which seem to be very different from empty control systems. If they'd gone for empty ones we might have celebrated first-time reclaiming territory a few weeks ago rather than this coming tick (fingers crossed).

 

[Leadfoot]

There is, although I don't have access to it - a PM with a CM confirmed that commodities with high demand affect the war state, similar to how old burning stations would always have the desired commodities for repairs set at high demand.

Sure, though there's a difference between "affect the war state" (the in-game text says that much) and "have a strong effect on the war state compared with other things you could be doing instead" which is a much more specific claim.

I checked the mission boards in HIP 20485 Bachman Port last night. For some reason they're really, really hot to get their hands on several tons of Onionhead again. Same as it was for several other systems under invasion or threat.

Thargoids always seem to go after life pods. Maybe we should try filling a few life pods to the brim with Onionhead, release them and see if the Thargoids take them. And if they take them, how are they flying after?

May have a more significant effect than Plutonian Nyborg.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

The eviction in Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-3 is looking promising, though I think it could use a little more assistance. On the Invasion front, it is looking like we can get probably around three more from the list below without having to invoke Wednesday too heavily! Note that Muruidooges was rising and may have the support to become said third.

As an aside, the eviction in Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93 saw an interesting jump from 8% to 16%, I presume to procure test results.

Top targets at 00:40 17th January 3309, ~3 more Invasions:
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-3 Control (empty) – 76%
Chanyaya Invasion + 0 ports – 68%
HIP 20485 Invasion + 7 ports – 64%
Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-3 Invasion + 1 port – 46%
HIP 20492 Invasion + 3 ports – 44%
Muruidooges Invasion + 4 ports – 38%
Jementi Invasion + 6 ports – 36%

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-3 is back on-course, and Chanyaya and HIP 20485 are ripe for completion! There is probably time for one more to emerge, noting that Muruidooges is still rising, but be mindful of relying on others to continue with activity come tomorrow. Fresh Alert activity spotted in Jeng, perhaps along with @Fnord Velkor?

Top targets at 08:10 17th January 3309, ~2–3 more Invasions:
Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-3 Control (empty) – 86%
Chanyaya Invasion + 0 ports – 74%
HIP 20485 Invasion + 7 ports – 70%
Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-3 Invasion + 1 port – 54%
HIP 20492 Invasion + 3 ports – 48%
Muruidooges Invasion + 4 ports – 48%

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Rescues alone work faster in an Invasion system than deliveries alone, and vice versa in Alert systems. This was not discovered with a single data point but by repeated observation.

Is this written up somewhere? It'd be good to look at.

There's no evidence that the distance from the maelstrom makes any difference at all to the effort needed to clear an Invasion or Alert system.

There's a distinct downwards trend if you plot EDDN FSDJumps into a system between server tick and clearance against the distance from the Maelstrom.

It's not a clean trend for obvious reasons, but the ones at ~30 LY as a general rule are easier than the ones at ~20 LY on that measure.

I'd agree that there's not enough evidence to claim causation yet, but there is a visible correlation for invasions not in their final week, for example

(not including this week's data though so far it looks consistent, not including data from before Frontier announced a rebalance)

Alerts do show a similar downward trend but there's so few decent data points for Alerts I'd agree that there's insufficient evidence to claim a correlation; final-week invasions are all clustered in a narrow 15-20 LY range right now so there's basically no data either.

Controlled systems have become easier to clear since AXI tried it just before Xmas, the targets have been quietly dropped between then and now.

AXI didn't try to attack the control system until they'd already quietly tested one the week earlier (uninhabited, further out) and found it didn't take that much to get visible progress.

No-one has made significant tests on populated control systems since then, except for a bit of research on Humarala (17.83LY) this week which would extrapolate to at least 600 billion combat bonds worth of kills to clear that system ... most of an old AX CG's worth, so that doesn't seem like a significant scaling down of required effort, though it is perhaps slightly less than AXI's earlier attempt.

That's not entirely consistent with a theory of "they were difficult then and are easy now": if that's true and the sole explanation, then given how few people are working on EQ-O b6-3 this week, it should be possible for a small group to get rapid visible progress in HR 1737 next week.

To be fair AXI had a crack at previously populated control systems, which seem to be very different from empty control systems.

Testing an empty control system right next to the maelstrom, or waiting a few months until we have a formerly-populated one at ~30 LY distance, would certainly give interesting results.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victory in Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-3, our first Control eviction! The Invasion course is as earlier; I can see the top two completing with a third quite marginal, and Muruidooges still rising quite defiantly. Remember that one can not rely upon Wednesday tomorrow for any miraculous surges, so anything not done today needs to reach at least a very easy completion threshold.

Top targets at 19:00 17th January 3309, ~2–3 more Invasions:
Chanyaya Invasion + 0 ports – 82%
HIP 20485 Invasion + 7 ports – 76%
Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-3 Invasion + 1 port – 62%
Muruidooges Invasion + 4 ports – 56%
HIP 20492 Invasion + 3 ports – 52%


Additional: I forgot to capture a little trophy.

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

Human control regained... for a system with no human presence.

 

[tolm]

* VUKURBEH - ALERT STATUS *

I've been using Vukurbeh as my base of operations and have slowly ended up transferring most of my ships and modules to Bernoulli Landing. GIven there is 1 day left on the Alert status and it is nowhere near complete, I'm assuming this system will be in Invasion after Thursday?

If this is true ...

1. What happens to me? Do I get transferred out regardless or only if Bernoulli (where I am docked) is directly under attack?
2. What happens to my stuffz? Will it be safe - and I can transfer it all somewhere else - or should I get everything out now?
3. I've grown kinda fond of the place ... is it likely to be a target for us to defend?!

o7

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

As per the pilot's handbook: "If a port containing a Commander's stored craft is destroyed by Thargoids, the craft will be automatically transferred to the nearest rescue ship."
That's for you and your active ship. You will have to transfer the other ships out manually, with an additional hazardous environment fee applied.

 

[tolm]

As per the pilot's handbook: "If a port containing a Commander's stored craft is destroyed by Thargoids, the craft will be automatically transferred to the nearest rescue ship."
That's for you and your active ship. You will have to transfer the other ships out manually, with an additional hazardous environment fee applied.

Okay - that makes sense and is reasonably comforting ...

If the port isn't destroyed (i.e. a different one becomes under attack) it sounds like I may not need to do anything?

Guess we wait and see where they attack!!!

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Chanyaya and HIP 20485 are well-positioned, after which there is technically enough time for 1–2 more, but please expect activity to become all but closed at that point. Muruidooges has slowed somewhat, though notably it still had double the rate of Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-3, so if one more system is to reach completion then my estimate would be Muruidooges.

Definitely if Chanyaya is still open by tomorrow evening, I will be running non-stop evacuations!

Top targets at 01:20 18th January 3309:
Chanyaya Invasion + 0 ports – 92%
HIP 20485 Invasion + 7 ports – 84%

Invest with caution:
Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-3 Invasion + 1 port – 68%
Muruidooges Invasion + 4 ports – 66%

Okay - that makes sense and is reasonably comforting ...
If the port isn't destroyed (i.e. a different one becomes under attack) it sounds like I may not need to do anything?
Guess we wait and see where they attack!!!

M. Taranis is also the first and most popular, so I think you can expect a defence of Vukurbeh, if not next cycle (1-week Recovery) then the cycle after (4-week Recovery). You do not need to do any Recovery activity either way, and indeed defending a first-cycle Invasion will leave all ports operational, including any attacked ports.

Waiting to discover where port attacks occur is indeed all you can do; actually Muruidooges is a good example case here. Last time it was invaded we had an attack at the planetary port Marriott Installation, whereas this time an attack is at the outpost Sternbach Vision, both being first-week Invasion. It may be wise to park in a nearby system after you are done for tomorrow, to be sure that you avoid being moved to a rescue megaship!

 

[Phill P]

Is this written up somewhere? It'd be good to look at.

Not written up officially, haven't had time. The war changed rescues a lot. I spent the first week and a bit trying to reorganise the squad on the fly in a new situation, fielding the influx of newbies when I knew no more about it than they did, finding out what was needed as fast as possible, revamping all our ship builds, rewriting all the rest of our documentation, re engineering ships and all while trying to have an effect on the war. Fortunately working out what was required didn't take too long but it was no less hectic for that. Since then we've been solidly working systems and continuing to analyse our progress. So we have some sheets and a lot of statistical analysis, but you are welcome any time to come on to our Discord and talk to our stats person when he is around. I can explain/write up in conceptual terms what we have done and tell you some of our findings but only he can explain exactly how it was analysed, it's not my field and he teaches it. It won't prove anything to someone with unrealistic expectations of exactitude but statistical analysis is for when you can't get absolute hard numbers and the reason why we used it instead. Having a statistician in the squad was a bit of serendipity, really.

That said, we have not taken our analysis as gospel either but gone out and done the work to show or not show what our conclusions indicated, revising as necessary. We continue to learn and put into practice what we learn every day. Our clearance record is the evidence it works so it's not just about the analysis any more, we're showing it with real in game results and progress. We have no interest in wasting our time with confirmation bias or kidding ourselves that something works when it doesn't, not when we are a small squad and systems take long enough to clear as it is. If we're going to knock our pipes out we want to know we're doing our best work. So while others were bickering about which system to save with little notion of the work involved or how to apply it, we've been working to find out exactly that from day 1.

Our aim is to do what we can to save as many inhabited systems as possible, to try to maintain some kind of human bastion in all the maelstroms. It may yet be set to fail or otherwise be an impossible task but if it is then it won’t be because we didn’t try or because we weren’t as focused and efficient as we could have been. Not on my watch.

There's a distinct downwards trend if you plot EDDN FSDJumps into a system between server tick and clearance against the distance from the Maelstrom.

It's not a clean trend for obvious reasons, but the ones at ~30 LY as a general rule are easier than the ones at ~20 LY on that measure.

I'd agree that there's not enough evidence to claim causation yet, but there is a visible correlation for invasions not in their final week, for example

(not including this week's data though so far it looks consistent, not including data from before Frontier announced a rebalance)

All these theories are interesting and worth pursuing for sure, but the only discernible thing that has changed the effort needed to clear Invasion and Alert systems from the rescues and deliveries side has been the target drops. The first ever systems to be cleared were after the first target drop, which came a day after that dreadful announcement about the reset that made the playerbase implode. Additionally, after weeks since the start of the war with AXI and others attempting to “isolate” a maelstrom it has also had no noticeable effect on the effort needed to move the bar in any Invasion or Alert system. Muruidooges is no easier or harder to clear a second time either, we chose it to test just that and for other reasons which I'll come to.

Nor have we found any evidence to suggest Invasion systems and Alert systems are any easier to clear depending on distance from the maelstrom, in terms of the effort needed to move the progress bar.

Activities and the work that needs doing to achieve that effort are another matter. Systems take the same effort to clear but they take different times to clear. A subtle but significant difference and one which helps us to maximise our targets.

A big issue with most pet theories flying around is that they are from an AX perspective and do not apply to all operations equally. They only ever consider their own logistics.

We are not AX. Our goals often align and thanks to this war align more than they used to but AX logistics are still not remotely like ours.

Jumps are a non issue for us, who spend all day doing 3-7 jumps to rescue ships and back. Our ships are built for the best combo of speed, range and capacity and fuelled for 200ly+ without scooping to minimise travel time. Jumps have a minimal impact on our time to do a job.

However, nor can we just drop in and pick a zone to fight.

The actual work involved and therefore the time taken to do it depends on more mundane, less esoteric factors. The size and state of the stations, their distances from the star and so on. A large station near the star will be faster to work than an outpost that takes several minutes to fly to, large ships will move more per trip, unattacked stations will have the biggest variety of activities and damaged ones the least etc. Those are the most important factors that decide the time a system takes to clear for us.

AXI didn't try to attack the control system until they'd already quietly tested one the week earlier (uninhabited, further out) and found it didn't take that much to get visible progress.

The point is AXI tried a controlled system before Xmas and found it very difficult. Since then people have started reporting that Controlled systems are easier to make progress in. Sometime between then and now the targets have dropped, possibly in the last week or two, with players reporting being able to shift the progress bar in a Controlled system on their own. Distance is not cut and dried since one of the systems was only 21ly from Raijin and another was the target on the list in this thread. There is no current consensus on distance as far as I can tell. More AX testing is needed to show a correlation or not.

Whether the ease of clearing Controlled systems is dependent on distance or not, they have undeniably and quite obviously had their targets dropped since Xmas. That's the important takeaway here.

This is huge to me and gives people a real opportunity to make a dent on the increasing number of Controlled systems each week that nobody has been able to stop. In week 2 it was 50 with 3 maelstroms. The last few weeks it has grown from 245 to 329 to 386 and now 452 as Thargoids continue to take 50+ systems a week.

And now, finally, a Controlled system has been cleared. Congratulations to those involved.


So, with all that in mind -

If we can clear Muruidooges this week then the only system around Hadad with any imminent threat of invasion is Neites, currently in Alert. It would be nice to stop that as well but if not it will be invaded on Thursday and we will be on it from the start. Worst case scenario is one Invasion system around Hadad being worked on with no other systems in danger of reinvasion for two weeks or more. Obviously we can't account for any new Alerts sprung on us on Thargsday but it still buys us all some time.

Then those who think there is anything to the idea of focusing on a maelstrom for any reason could, if they want to, have a go at clearing out Controlled systems there. Reclaiming systems for humanity that have been lost and continue to be lost every week regardless of how many others are saved. Putting them into a state of recovery for weeks and buying even more time while more Controlled systems are retaken. Maybe kicking the Goids out of some uninhabited ones as well. Perhaps the more they clear the fewer systems will be reinvaded in future. The opportunity is now there to try and see.

Is there any difference in the effort required to reclaim a previously inhabited controlled system vs a previously uninhabited one? It would be useful to know for sure.

It’s also good news for player factions whose systems got hammered by the war as it may give them a fighting chance of getting some of them back.

Seems to me that’s worth giving a try. Defending what we can but also pushing back a bit.

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

Is there any difference in the effort required to reclaim a previously inhabited controlled system vs a previously uninhabited one? It would be useful to know for sure.

Evidence says there absolutely is, and in addition uninhabited alerts are practically impossible to clear. So for now I'm not sure there's any point trying to clear controlled systems; the unpopulated ones are viable targets but a) get no recovery period and b) can easily go back to being thargoid controlled if (or rather when) they go to alert state again.

 

[Phill P]

Evidence says there absolutely is, and in addition uninhabited alerts are practically impossible to clear. So for now I'm not sure there's any point trying to clear controlled systems; the unpopulated ones are viable targets but a) get no recovery period and b) can easily go back to being thargoid controlled if (or rather when) they go to alert state again.

So again conflicting reports on it depending on who you talk to. Well, any controlled systems that could be recovered/cleared might be a start. We don't know how they choose uninhabited systems to move into, they just take X many of them every week. They may take them back or not. I suppose we'll see what happens to Hyades Sector EQ-O b6-3 tomorrow.

The text is probably just a C&P but is nevertheless ambiguous, on the one hand it says the system will go back to being uninhabited, on the other it says human control. Wouldn't it be under nobody's control? Which in turn begs the question what does recovery then mean in this context? What is there to recover in a system that was uninhabited?

Perhaps it just means within the human area of influence. It would be nice if we were rewarded with a Ground Port or something for winning the system, and another way to recoup our losses, but that's probably just wishful thinking.

 

[Aleks Zuno]

Victory in Chanyaya! Progress was quite good overnight and surely has put three more systems technically within reach this cycle, where not backing out will be quite important.

Top targets at 08:10 18th January 3309:
HIP 20485 Invasion + 7 ports – 90%

Tentatively:
Hyades Sector YZ-O b6-3 Invasion + 1 port – 74%
Muruidooges Invasion + 4 ports – 72%


@Phill P — Thank you ever so much for all of the efforts, analysis and taking the time to describe it to us, and indeed both you personally and PDES plurally! You have been focused from the start on achieving superior use of time, doubtless with the vision of raising the number of victories per time, though at minimum it saves time for others. Either way, for me that is one of the most respectful deeds I can imagine.

I have not forgotten your mention quite a while ago of combining the different actions; the context at the time was evacuations versus deliveries, but the point now is that you can count on me to help supplement your push in Muruidooges, one shattered petal at a time!

The actual work involved and therefore the time taken to do it depends on more mundane, less esoteric factors. The size and state of the stations, their distances from the star and so on. A large station near the star will be faster to work than an outpost that takes several minutes to fly to, large ships will move more per trip, unattacked stations will have the biggest variety of activities and damaged ones the least etc. Those are the most important factors that decide the time a system takes to clear for us.

If it is any consolation, I have noticed quite a few AX pilots seeking systems specifically with attacked planetary ports at not more than 1000–1500 Ls, just for the quick arrival and easier zero-Swarm fight. Naturally this was with no regard for the completion prospect! I imagine if you lead an AX division, you would already have Limpet resupply operations set up by the further-out Conflict zones to remove that excuse for fighting elsewhere.

Thargsday

I love it! Thor might not, meanwhile I enjoy the linguistic thought that translating "Donnerstag" literally from German to English, in a way which an algorithm would not think to do, yields "Day of Thunder".