Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

ask for Counterstrike to provide Conflict zones with restock
Alliance supposedly had some AX megaships built for them, these could be dockable and make excellent focal points for counter-strike CZ-s. Alas, these seem to be yet another vaporware by Sirius.

Other superpowers also could send some of their flight operations carriers into the counter-strike systems.

And lastly, I would volunteer my own carrier for direct war effort if I could.

Even if Frontier doesn't want to do any of this, NPC support ships you can call in and that would refuel/repair/rearm you with limpets could surely be a thing, not only in the thargoid war context but for human CZ-s, too.
 
Yeah, it would be awesome if carriers could enter frontline systems. Even if they would need extra outfitting and repairs that would be fine.

On a much smaller scale, it would already help if carriers with public docking and shipyard were more visible / easier to find, for players who either don't have a carrier of their own or simply can't find a good parking spot.

The other day I wanted to get involved in one of this week's systems, but all the nearby systems had all the carrier parking spots close to the star occupied, and although I tested several carriers with "Access: All" none of them had a shipyard. Even if one of the others had one there was no good way to find out. I also tried filtering by Inara but that proved to be unreliable. So I had to haul my (naturally very short-range) AX ship over several jumps into the target system.

Especially for counterstrike systems, a close parking spot can be the difference between life and death (well, rebuy, but I like to take being destroyed seriously) when you can't get rid of your caustic anymore and only have seconds to dock.
 
The other day I wanted to get involved in one of this week's systems, but all the nearby systems had all the carrier parking spots close to the star occupied, and although I tested several carriers with "Access: All" none of them had a shipyard. Even if one of the others had one there was no good way to find out. I also tried filtering by Inara but that proved to be unreliable. So I had to haul my (naturally very short-range) AX ship over several jumps into the target system.
You can see what services are available for each carrier in the system map.

IMO megaships would be better. I recently discovered that a very small selection of the dockable megaships inside the bubble have every service active on them - including shipyard/InterAstra, Frontline Solutions, NPC mission givers - basically everything a coriolis station has with the advantage of being relocatable. These would be perfect as staging bases for counter-attacks. AXI even has their own megaship (but it's missing a shipyard), although last I heard they've been unable to get in contact with any of the CMs to have it relocated.

(The EFS Archangel in Shana Bei is one example if you want to check it out - I find the atmosphere on the concourse is far better than what we have on fleet carriers.)
 
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We are—and more interestingly it seems that T. Taranis attacks while T. Leigong now remains silent after reaching three systems, which we can see given that T. Taranis has nothing else which can attack and that one of three T. Leigong targets is quiet. Slippery rules notwithstanding, that seems to give an idea of how large a M. Hadad containment region would need to be if otherwise cleared away, and I imagine the region plus Alerts would make it quite difficult.
 

Week 60, 18th January 3310​

Report
Five Alerts repelled at Cephei Sectors AV-Y b6, DQ-Y b1 and AV-Y b0, HIP 3006 and Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8.
Six Invasions defended at HIPs 30158, 20485, 19157 and 20527, Vogulu and Obamumbo.
The defended Invasion systems will start Recovery.

Targets updated at 06:40 25th January 3310
HIP 20899 Invasion 86% *86.7%Indra 23 Ly, 3 ports, 2988 Ls 0.2g planet attack
Holvandalla Alert 56% — Raijin 21 Ly, 86 Ls starport, 19 Ls outpost, 43 Ls planet
HIP 20492 Invasion 48% — Indra 24 Ly, 3 ports, 3168 Ls outpost attack
HIP 21918 Invasion 30% — Indra 22 Ly, 3 ports, 294 Ls planet attack
HIP 20491 Invasion 30% — Indra 23 Ly, 4 ports, 1720 Ls 0.18g planet attack
Col 285 Sector WN-Z b14-5 Alert 30% — Hadad 21 Ly
Iduni Invasion 24% — Raijin 22 Ly, 2 ports, 1754 Ls 0.18g planet attack
77 Theta-1 Tauri Alert 24% — Indra 21 Ly
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-5 Alert 22% — Indra 22 Ly
Vistnero Invasion 20% *20.1%Raijin 21 Ly, 4 ports, 365 Ls outpost attack
Kurumanit Invasion 20% — Cocijo 20 Ly, 1 port, 26 Ls outpost attack, 38 Ls outpost damage
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6 Alert 20% — Hadad 23 Ly
Lei Hsini Control 20% — Indra 21 Ly, 3158 strength
HIP 7338 Invasion 16% *17.7%Oya 19 Ly, 4 ports, 2426 Ls outpost attack
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-7 Alert 16% — Hadad 22 Ly
Yan Zangata Alert 12% *13.3%Hadad 22 Ly, 70 Ls outpost
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-2 Alert 10% — Raijin 21 Ly
Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-2 Alert 8% *9.1%Hadad 23 Ly
Omumba Invasion 8% *8.3%Hadad 14 Ly, 4 ports, 1836 Ls planet attack
HIP 21261 Invasion 8% *8.1%Indra 20 Ly, 3 ports, 285 Ls planet attack
HIP 38718 Control 6% — Cocijo 21 Ly, 1672 strength
HR 1737 Invasion 4% *4.7%Taranis 9 Ly, 5 ports, 2470 Ls outpost + 959 Ls planet attack, 691 Ls planet + 692 Ls planet damage
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0 Alert 2% *3.4%Raijin 21 Ly
Khwal Invasion 2% *3%Cocijo 22 Ly, 4 ports, 89 Ls outpost attack
Hez Ur Alert 2% *2.7%Cocijo 22 Ly, 446 Ls starport, 236 Ls outpost
HIP 8525 Control 2% *2.4%Oya 18 Ly, 8931 strength
Hyadum II Alert 2% *2.1%Indra 19 Ly
Arietis Sector KM-W d1-94 Alert 2% — Leigong 17 Ly, 898 Ls planet
Iceniguari Control 2% — Raijin 23 Ly, 2642 strength
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93 Control 2% — Raijin 24 Ly, 784 strength
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2 Control 2% — Raijin 24 Ly, 817 strength
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-3 Matrix 2% — Raijin 24 Ly
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71 Control 2% — Raijin 26 Ly, 1506 strength
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2 Control 2% — Raijin 23 Ly, 950 strength
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1 Control 2% — Raijin 23 Ly, 1160 strength
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2 Control 2% — Raijin 23 Ly, 1046 strength
Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-0 Control 2% — Raijin 23 Ly, 1128 strength
Sugalis Control 2% — Raijin 23 Ly, 2424 strength

Notes
The Alert report lists predicted attackers.

Week 59, 11th January 3310​

Report
Eleven Alerts repelled at Cephei Sectors AF-A c21, ZE-A c8 and WO-A b4, Col 285 Sectors UH-C b13-3, OB-E b12-4, KB-O c6-2, LV-F b11-0, MG-E b12-2, SW-D b12-2 and OG-E b12-1, and Poqomathi.
Four Invasions defended at HIPs 11111, 20024 and 19198, and Nibelaako.
The defended Invasion systems will start Recovery.
 
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Maybe someone at Frontier saw those eight populated alerts around Indra and though, “Maybe that’s not such a good idea”. Meanwhile…


Anyone else get that sinking feeling of “false hope”? (I’m too lazy and/or out of energy to make a full thread of its own at the moment)
 
Interestingly, if they hadn't originally weakened the Thargoid advance after the initial arrival balancing - so ~80 Alerts a week, stronger difficulty curve, etc. ...

... then they'd be at about 4300 systems now, or slightly over 500 systems per Maelstrom, which means that these CGs would be taking place against the backdrop of Taranis being about to kick down Ram Tah's door.


("About" probably meaning "in a few months" since Taranis was always one of the more heavily defended, having to repeatedly reattack HIP 23716 would have slowed them down a fair bit, and the spire attacks might have done a bit further, but it would still have added some suspense.)
 
With rule-fiddling remaining the most likely cause, perhaps the Alert amount now could be using the extra information of the number of Alerts which actually occurred in the previous week to decide the amount to be placed this week? Given the way that Frontier clearly do not want Alerts prevented, something like that seems plausibly by design and would be the end of the strategic game entirely.
 

Week 61, 25th January 3310​

Report
Two Alerts repelled at Gliese 9035 and HIP 2422.
Four Invasions defended at HIPs 20899, 20492 and 20491, and Holvandalla.
The defended Invasion systems will start Recovery.

Targets updated at 06:20 1st February 3310
92 Sigma-2 Tauri Alert 96% — Indra 22 Ly
Col 285 Sector OC-V d2-96 Alert 50% *50.3%Thor 22 Ly
HIP 21918 Invasion 40% — Indra 22 Ly, 2 ports, 293 Ls outpost attack, 294 Ls planet damage
Nu Guang Alert 28% — Raijin 19 Ly, 44 Ls starport, 1040 Ls outpost, 44 Ls planet
Vistnero Invasion 22% — Raijin 21 Ly, 3 ports, 521 Ls outpost attack, 365 Ls outpost damage
HIP 20815 Alert 20% — Indra 22 Ly
Hyades Sector ST-Q b5-5 Alert 20% — Indra 22 Ly, matrix
HIP 7338 Invasion 18% — Oya 19 Ly, 3 ports, 986 Ls 0.15g planet attack, 2426 Ls outpost damage
Yan Zangata Invasion 18% — Hadad 22 Ly, 2 ports, 98 Ls outpost attack
HIP 22496 Alert 18% — Indra 22 Ly, 2174 Ls planet
Arietis Sector HG-X b1-0 Alert 18% — Indra 21 Ly, matrix
Arietis Sector LM-V b2-5 Control 18% — Indra 22 Ly, 1117 strength
Khwal Invasion 14% — Cocijo 22 Ly, 3 ports, 89 Ls 0.15g planet attack, 89 Ls outpost damage
HIP 21261 Invasion 12% — Indra 20 Ly, 2 ports, 285 Ls outpost attack, 285 Ls planet damage
Iduni Invasion 10% — Raijin 22 Ly, 1 port, 423 Ls outpost attack, 1754 Ls 0.18g planet damage
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-0 Control 8% *8.9%Cocijo 25 Ly
Cephei Sector FB-X b1-1 Alert 8% *8.3%Oya 20 Ly
Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1 Alert 6% *6.2%Raijin 23 Ly
HIP 116360 Invasion 6% — Raijin 21 Ly, 4 ports, 861 Ls 0.3g planet attack
86 Rho Tauri Alert 4% *4.6%Indra 19 Ly
Pegasi Sector MY-O a7-5 Alert 4% *4.2%Raijin 21 Ly
Arietis Sector KM-W d1-94 Invasion 4% — Leigong 17 Ly, 2 ports, 620 Ls planet attack
Hez Ur Invasion 4% — Cocijo 22 Ly, 2 ports, 236 Ls outpost attack
97 i Tauri Alert 4% — Indra 21 Ly, 1485 Ls starport
Aowicha Alert 4% — Oya 24 Ly
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3 Alert 2% *3%Raijin 22 Ly
HR 1737 Invasion 2% *2.1%Taranis 9 Ly, 3 ports, 270 Ls outpost + 503 Ls planet attack, 2470 Ls outpost + 959 Ls planet damage
Omumba Invasion 2% — Hadad 14 Ly, 3 ports, 41 Ls outpost attack, 1836 Ls planet damage
Pegasi Sector NY-O a7-1 Alert 2% — Raijin 22 Ly
Vucumatha Alert 2% — Cocijo 23 Ly
HR 2204 Alert 2% — Hadad 15 Ly
Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-1 Alert 2% — Hadad 23 Ly
Balak Alert 2% — Raijin 23 Ly, 9 Ls outpost
Dhang Tzela Control 2% — Thor 19 Ly, 6893 strength

Notes
The Alert report lists predicted attackers.

Week 60, 18th January 3310​

Report
Five Alerts repelled at Cephei Sectors AV-Y b6, DQ-Y b1 and AV-Y b0, HIP 3006 and Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8.
Six Invasions defended at HIPs 30158, 20485, 19157 and 20527, Vogulu and Obamumbo.
The defended Invasion systems will start Recovery.
 
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Back to 8 alerts. Maybe they get extra alerts on odd dates this year.
Kira's theory in the other thread that it's something to with Maelstroms being unable to place alerts entirely also seems a possible explanation (as a change for January).

Do a first pass to make sure every Maelstrom can place at least one Alert (or maybe even just "has awake non-Titan Control systems"). For each that can't, boost the Alert budget everywhere else by 1.


Leigong has also not placed its own Alert for a second time, which suggests that it is the number of Controls rather than the number of Alerts which is determinative. Whether it is 2 or 3 Controls needed to stop a Titan attack I don't think we'll find out.

something like that seems plausibly by design and would be the end of the strategic game entirely.
Not necessarily - as Oya shows, there's only so far an increased Alert budget can get a Maelstrom if it's contained properly.

It would require massive coordination at the current difficulty levels (and leaving Indra and Raijin to their own devices for months as impossible to practically contain and able to make use of near-arbitrarily-high budgets) but there's a theoretical approach to collapse each Maelstrom to a set of nature reserve systems at a manageable distance (giving maybe 1 Alert/week each and perhaps not even that) while removing its core, then move onto the next.
 
Not necessarily - as Oya shows, there's only so far an increased Alert budget can get a Maelstrom if it's contained properly.

That situation was exactly what I meant! Two tiny Maelstroms plus M. Thor and M. Oya lacking visible targets leads to fewer than 40 Alerts across all Maelstroms, that being the previously-intended amount last year and higher than the amount last week, therefore increase the amount each. Surely strategy no longer matters if that happened, at least not in the context of the number of Alerts, when any use of the galaxy topology and respite intervals would only cause more Alerts elsewhere until M. Indra is ensuring the weekly 40 alone.

The only real gain would be if it replaces strong systems with weak—unless we were to reach a containment region scenario with all eight simultaneously, which I imagine now to be what you had in mind. If that is what it does without being fiddled manually, and if no new forms of fiddling occur, I think then comes the peripheral progress puzzle once one reaches ten Alerts each!
 
The only real gain would be if it replaces strong systems with weak—unless we were to reach a containment region scenario with all eight simultaneously, which I imagine now to be what you had in mind. If that is what it does without being fiddled manually, and if no new forms of fiddling occur, I think then comes the peripheral progress puzzle once one reaches ten Alerts each!
Yes, that's roughly what I was thinking. Putting down excessive Alerts per week will push the perimeter outwards, so make them individually a lot weaker.

One-by-one, contain each Maelstrom so that its increased Alert budget is irrelevant, leaving it a tiny nature reserve to stop the Titan attacking, and then clear out the rest.

Indra will have got pretty large by the end of this, but it's not near anything massively important (some Ion Distributor production which has backup near Lave, some Marlinists, that's about it) so giving it 40 Alerts a week (20 of which end up on the "wrong" side of the bubble anyway) for a while isn't a big deal.

Then at the end, collapsing 40 long-range Controls a week will shrink Indra rapidly and stop it using the full budget either. By the time periphery progress becomes relevant again, it'll probably be small enough that cooldowns are stopping it placing the full ten anyway.



It's certainly going to be much easier to wait for Ram Tah to come up with something, though.
 
On the subject of that ‘Thargoids get extra alerts at Titans if one or more of the other Titans don’t attack’, I suppose - now that I’ve had a night (and morning) to sleep over it - that the theory should probably be mandated by either “If there are insufficient controls” and/or “There are targets available for the Titan to attack”.

Not that it’s particularly easy to tell at the moment, seeing as this is most likely a new rule, and Hadad already covered its core again simply through the surrounding Thargoids doing so. Which is likely to be how Leigong retakes HIP 8033 eventually, if it continues to be ‘lazy’. (Not sure about Taranis.)

And that is, if they get to before Ram Tah throws his anti-Titan invention at us. And that it works in the ‘ideal’ scenario of beating the Titans back without causing further retaliation.
 
Kira's theory in the other thread that it's something to with Maelstroms being unable to place alerts entirely also seems a possible explanation (as a change for January).

Do a first pass to make sure every Maelstrom can place at least one Alert (or maybe even just "has awake non-Titan Control systems"). For each that can't, boost the Alert budget everywhere else by 1.


Leigong has also not placed its own Alert for a second time, which suggests that it is the number of Controls rather than the number of Alerts which is determinative. Whether it is 2 or 3 Controls needed to stop a Titan attack I don't think we'll find out.


Not necessarily - as Oya shows, there's only so far an increased Alert budget can get a Maelstrom if it's contained properly.

It would require massive coordination at the current difficulty levels (and leaving Indra and Raijin to their own devices for months as impossible to practically contain and able to make use of near-arbitrarily-high budgets) but there's a theoretical approach to collapse each Maelstrom to a set of nature reserve systems at a manageable distance (giving maybe 1 Alert/week each and perhaps not even that) while removing its core, then move onto the next.
We're currently doing what we can to contain Indra but it's harder than Oya where SNPX are doing a stellar job on the Invasions and Alerts. It may be possible if they don't throw too many more alerts at us to take care of systems at the alert or invasion stage and possibly the unpopulated alerts as well so they don't become new controls, otherwise if a few select controls could be taken out to reduce its alerts we can try some of the easier ones if nobody else is going to.

At present there's a worry that the samples for alerts have gone up again, which we are looking into. It's all null and void if they have. Might as well party while the galaxy burns and go where we can have some fun.
 
Tinfoil may be required for this idea, or maybe not, but I have a feeling this has to do with the fact that this supposed anti-Titan weapon is going to be set loose soon-ish, and will probably (hopefully?) have a relatively significant effect.

Whether that really makes sense, in regards to the gameplay/balance, I’m not sure. But I guess the invasion fans are happy.
 
Samples for unpopulated alerts have doubled. So that's that.
So… does that make them almost equal to populated alerts in terms of the samples required for a clear?

(Still believe that alerts should somehow facilitate combat slightly without turning it into invasion state 2.0… but that’s easier said than done.)
 
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