Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

@ Aleks Zuno & comrades . Oya destroyed . next Hadad , do you have a strategy HOW ?

If I understand the question, the basic plan (and hope!) is:
  • Enough Spire progress each week to clear all peripheral systems, Spires themselves included.
  • Also clear each week as many non-peripheral systems as we can, with priority given to possible attackers.
For the end of this week 73:
  • Further Spire progress affects only the Spire at Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3; all other peripheral systems are clear. I will be amazed if a such huge effort occurs just for one system!
  • A bit more Control clearance is planned with assistance very welcome; see the earlier list with open Scout sample orders for Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-0 and Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-2. Direct progress in those Control systems is also quite fine!
For next week 74:
  • We really need 100% Spire progress, to remove two Spire sites together.
  • INIV aims to clear HR 2204 in the meantime, again with open Carrier orders.
  • Finish the 15% for the peripheral systems, with INIV preferring the Control systems over the two Alerts.
  • If we have time and help, consider clearing the non-peripheral Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-4 and Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5, both to advance the periphery and also to test an obscure hypothesis of mine.
Further weeks will be similar; continue clearing that way while preventing as many Alerts as possible. Indeed in week 75, a full clear of the Spire site at Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15 should let us prevent one more Alert!

Mind that INIV cannot simply decide to complete a Spire; with greatest thanks, we need the very appreciated help of everyone else for that to happen!
 
Lowest number of ctrl systems = next target.
That's applied so far, true, but only because INIV's preparatory attacks on Hadad while Oya was still thoroughly guarded have brought it below Thor and Indra.

Especially with what we now know that a Titan needs to be reduced to at most 6 controls (and possibly 4 or 5) before it becomes practical to attack, the layout of the inner core of each maelstrom is far more critical than whether it has 50 or 100 or 200 weak controls beyond 20 LY.

Indra's inmost spire is at position 12, which means that extreme coordination or luck will be required to hit Indra's innermost systems with spire assistance, while it retains the ability to launch new Alerts in a wide variety of directions
Indra-edges.png

Cocijo is even worse - with its inmost spire at position 17, even getting it down to "High" damage resistance will probably require recaptures without spire assistance. The relatively low number of inhabited systems compared with Indra might or might not be an advantage.
Cocijo-edges.png

Thor's inmost spire is at position 8 which makes it at least theoretically usable to attack quite deeply. Thor also has a relatively weak and poorly cross-connected core. The risk would be over-enthusiastic attacks prior to the final week causing the spire to be lost too early, but if that can be avoided it would probably be easier than Oya - at least to get to a vulnerable number of remaining controls.
Thor-edges.png

Raijin: With inmost spires at positions 4 and 7, it should always be possible to reduce Raijin to a vulnerable 3 Controls even with poor luck or timing, and the general strength of the core is fairly weak.
Raijin-edges.png

Hadad, of course, has an extremely weak inner core with no inhabited systems at all, few systems within 10 LY and a spire at position 1, making it substantially weaker than the already-beaten Taranis and Oya and also tactically simple.
Hadad-edges.png

I wouldn't necessarily expect Indra to be next, given that - even if it might well have slightly fewer Controls than Thor by the time Hadad falls.
 
Indeed it is a bit concerning, if the low-strength evictions amount we can bring upon another Maelstrom in one week is enough to direct everyone towards it! The hope and intention was that M. Hadad is a genuinely nicer target. That said, I have also always noted the value of communication via system progress in its ability to transcend languages and time zones, so perhaps a well-timed eviction storm is exactly what everyone needs to rally well despite not having chosen where it occurred.

Deciding will be difficult between enjoying the slightly poor attack connections at M. Thor and helping the relative popularity of M. Indra. I can vouch personally for the poor M. Thor connections, having used that repeatedly to perform inner strength-testing with Leunii and Gluschen from a safe perch it cannot reach! Conversely at M. Indra, the notion of fighting its Alerts seems concerning enough that it may need a very coordinated hundred-system storm to drive it down to something like 42–44 systems in a single week, such that an entire 10-light-year shell becomes safe from attack for a month.

Thinking about it a bit, some of the Alerts now at M. Hadad feel like the actual legacy of the thirty Alerts week at M. Oya; that one-week delay definitely has allowed more attackers now than would have been the case otherwise. We will do what we can to help its periphery catch up to the attackers!


Also, I forgot to mention—
Hadad : reactivation mission

While a Spire siege remains the best thing to do, I think there should indeed be AX Reactivation usefully available next week 74! If HR 2204 has Baliunas Arsenal as a possible mission target, I imagine Reactivation missions will be available from Muruidooges.
 
That's applied so far, true, but only because INIV's preparatory attacks on Hadad while Oya was still thoroughly guarded have brought it below Thor and Indra.

Especially with what we now know that a Titan needs to be reduced to at most 6 controls (and possibly 4 or 5) before it becomes practical to attack, the layout of the inner core of each maelstrom is far more critical than whether it has 50 or 100 or 200 weak controls beyond 20 LY.

Indra's inmost spire is at position 12, which means that extreme coordination or luck will be required to hit Indra's innermost systems with spire assistance, while it retains the ability to launch new Alerts in a wide variety of directions

Cocijo is even worse - with its inmost spire at position 17, even getting it down to "High" damage resistance will probably require recaptures without spire assistance. The relatively low number of inhabited systems compared with Indra might or might not be an advantage.

Thor's inmost spire is at position 8 which makes it at least theoretically usable to attack quite deeply. Thor also has a relatively weak and poorly cross-connected core. The risk would be over-enthusiastic attacks prior to the final week causing the spire to be lost too early, but if that can be avoided it would probably be easier than Oya - at least to get to a vulnerable number of remaining controls.

Raijin: With inmost spires at positions 4 and 7, it should always be possible to reduce Raijin to a vulnerable 3 Controls even with poor luck or timing, and the general strength of the core is fairly weak.

Hadad, of course, has an extremely weak inner core with no inhabited systems at all, few systems within 10 LY and a spire at position 1, making it substantially weaker than the already-beaten Taranis and Oya and also tactically simple.

I wouldn't necessarily expect Indra to be next, given that - even if it might well have slightly fewer Controls than Thor by the time Hadad falls.
If I recall correctly at the time of the decision Hadad and Thor were roughly equal in terms of control systems, and Thor wouldn't involve a 30kls bombing run.
 
If I recall correctly at the time of the decision Hadad and Thor were roughly equal in terms of control systems, and Thor wouldn't involve a 30kls bombing run.
There's a lot of different "at the time of the decision" that could mean, though - INIV have wanted Hadad dead since well before U18 made it possible, while others have suggested Indra should be the next post-Oya target long after the attack on Hadad had started.

(In practical terms, there are relatively few groups with enough Control recapturing capability that their decision on where to go next is meaningful, and so it only matters if they don't agree)
 
There's a lot of different "at the time of the decision" that could mean, though - INIV have wanted Hadad dead since well before U18 made it possible, while others have suggested Indra should be the next post-Oya target long after the attack on Hadad had started.

(In practical terms, there are relatively few groups with enough Control recapturing capability that their decision on where to go next is meaningful, and so it only matters if they don't agree)
A week or so before the 30 Alerts at Oya the next target was being discussed. At the time both Hadad and Thor had eighty something controls.
We were taking out 10 ctrls a week at the time so the difference seemed trivial. I think we'll get a lot of burnout once the bombing starts.
 
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You all do good work and clear a beach head near Hadad, and we'll roll in the support carriers.

Thank you ever so much! From next week 74, much relies upon getting the Spire completions it needs—and indeed an eventual Titan assault—and really all such Commanders are those for whom we do it.


I started gathering Scythe samples for the RM-B B14 twins yesterday. I have 622 Scythe samples from RM-B B14-2

Goodness; for the moment I would not want to promise anything beyond Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-2 this week, but indeed overwhelming support has been known to sway better judgement than to start another strong target on a Wednesday! I have listed here the bit of assistance received already; I could either keep in mind that you have 622 stored, or if delivered I will do as with the other systems and take the progress into account instead.


At the time both Hadad and Thor had eighty something controls.

To be sure, there is not really a Hadad versus Thor notion here—we have dozens-to-hundreds of completions at both! I recall just before update 17, we were even sizing the combined strength of the M. Thor island containing Rajuarpai, just before the introduction of Spire sites opened better possibilities and ultimately offering to gather all but Swahku for the M. Taranis payloads.

At present, the reasons that we are not clearing a single system anywhere else are:
  • Frontier will just increase the Alerts to match.
  • It costs less time to recapture a greater number of weak systems, when appropriate to do so.

INIV have wanted Hadad dead since well before U18 made it possible

There is an element of that in being Imperial space, although that never came before practicality such as the original possibility of clearing M. Leigong normally! Its preference now is almost entirely a practical one, and moreover the highest goal is that attacks stop or reduce in strength. The latter really applies anywhere; even with a completely selfish aim of keeping only one's own space defended, it was very apparent in 3309 that the best strategy for a Control wing with that goal would be still to prevent Alerts everywhere.
 
With two Matrix systems blocking the next week 74 periphery and the weakest peripheral Control strength becoming above 4600, may I ask a @Grimscrub about the prospect of a full 100% peripheral progress?
Apologies, caught this right after work and forgot to reply before I ko'd-
Flagged to folk heading spire efforts my side.
Given the full 0-100 next week and remaining 9/10 systems done this week, declared it in advance, with a note that as that means any further progress pre-thursday is somewhat superfluous as far as the spire, they could help some Indra forces experimental efforts for the final day this week if willing/interested. US-Z will get full focus come Thursday far as those spireward listening to me.


Oh, far as why US-Z b14-7 - best gravity and second best supercruise distance in the region at ~1497Ls/0.05G versus for instance, the VS-Z spire on the outer edge this week at ~9.6kLs and 0.4G, or next week's addon with shorter cruise but 10x grav, 0.51G.
30439 won't be as bad as oya spires got when we get there so that should be fine anyways, but I figure get full use out of the convenient option while we can and such, maximize auxiliary support we can get from the more relaxed/money motivated spire enthusiasts.
 
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Goodness; for the moment I would not want to promise anything beyond Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-2 this week, but indeed overwhelming support has been known to sway better judgement than to start another strong target on a Wednesday! I have listed here the bit of assistance received already; I could either keep in mind that you have 622 stored, or if delivered I will do as with the other systems and take the progress into account instead.
I'm offloading RM-B B12-2 now for you to help figure out Wednesday. It'll be 938 samples. I can start stockpiling for another system tomorrow for next cycle
 
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Got back to hammering the Spire at Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3 as soon as Oya popped and it's been getting fairly busy the last couple of days, we'd have taken it with a full week at it. Is there a more useful Spire target for me to hit next week or should I just crack on out here?


Related hot tip for the long Spire/Maelstrom cruises, had to fit an FSD booster to get the 'vette over there with the SCO drive and I've found the booster only needs a 1% repair to operate, a 1E AFMU will do for like 2 seconds of repair before you can boot it up and cheese it back outta the system 👍
 
US-Z will get full focus come Thursday far as those spireward listening to me.

Thank you all! I will try to make each periphery have the best effect it can; in particular with Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-2 taken this week, the week 74 periphery ought to stop an extra Alert. The plan meanwhile is to stop HR 2204 attacking, and the hope is to expedite two more systems such that the week 75 periphery can remove both Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15 and HIP 31223 together.

That also would set up week 75 for having all attackers stopped; if so, week 76 would be a 85% periphery which reaches beyond Montioch just in time to stop it attacking. There will be a few more Alerts, where I think stopping one of them could align things such that 85% in week 77 leaves 9–10 systems, thus Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-7 could be used for completion.


I'm offloading RM-B B12-2 now for you to help figure out Wednesday. It'll be 938 samples. I can start stockpiling for another system tomorrow for next cycle

All accounted here; thank you! The simplest option is to visit HR 2204 and deliver directly on Thursday; your amounts could also cover the ~700-sized 15% payloads if you are happy to store them for a while, but I imagine it will be best to dabble with that after confirming exactly which systems are peripheral.


Got back to hammering the Spire at Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3 as soon as Oya popped and it's been getting fairly busy the last couple of days, we'd have taken it with a full week at it. Is there a more useful Spire target for me to hit next week or should I just crack on out here?

In the Thursday War, unfortunately not; if you are on-foot then you could stockpile Sabotage mission items, or as an aerial attacker the least dissimilar useful thing is to help Invasions elsewhere.
 
I'm generally in the air, I can bag Orthruses all day if a Spire needs taking down or run evacuations if we get any populated alerts, though I'm down to grind reactivations if there's any without Banshees to deal with, the carrier bar could do with stocking up tbh. I've thrown a bunch of CRCRs in the Cutter with the intention of trying sampling at some point, so that could be a thing.
I guess combat wise NHSS Orthrus hunting or AXCZs in peripheral controls or alerts will be most helpful.
 
Before Thursday, I think the only non-harvest starship action is combat in Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-2, and only during the next few hours before we finish and deliver a payload to meet the difference. After that, the only useful actions are those involving stored items, which means either Sabotage stockpiling on-foot or Research harvesting at HR 2204. Speaking of which, Carrier orders will be available soon for that!

After Thursday, some non-harvest actions will become available—however, none are better at first than simply returning to the Spire site until 85% is reached! After that:
  • Independently of clearing peripheral systems, reaching 100% at the Spire sites is also a goal to clear Col 285 Sectors VS-Z b14-3 and SX-Z b14-0.
  • Alerts should be Muruidooges and Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4, finishing their final 15%.
    • The former is populated, so evacuations will be quite fine once it reaches 85%.
    • Depending on Spire and harvest rates, there may be a rare opportunity for on-foot AX Reactivation to be very useful! From my best knowledge about how it works, Muruidooges should offer AX Reactivation missions for Baliunas Arsenal at HR 2204, and it would be absolutely amazing if those can help the latter while also driving the final 15% at the former.
  • Six Control systems will want their final 15% from somewhere; at present I am assuming an INIV sweep of them, but it is fine to work around any organised combat helping them, if such is announced here!
Thinking about it, Commanders who enjoy on-foot AX Reactivation are very, very welcome to help HR 2204 from Thursday onwards, if I am correct about its military port and mission opportunities! The effect on Muruidooges will not be useful initially, such that Spire sabotage would be better initially, but the effect on HR 2204 should be still very worthwhile.

Insofar as I would like two other non-peripheral Control completions to help reach HIP 31223, if AX Reactivations are popular enough and harvesting is fast enough then I will ask for harvesting to change to some secondary targets. This should be known before the weekend!
 
Provisional M. Hadad lists for week 74! Not every system needs adopting necessarily, but by all means state if you would like to take one and if an open Carrier is involved. Notes:
  • 100% peripheral progress is desirable this week to remove two Spire sites.
    • Disregard Col 285 Sector VS-Z b14-3, which started with surplus progress.
    • Observe Col 285 Sector SX-Z b14-0 for the actual peripheral progress.
    • Most Commanders are attacking the inner Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-7 to achieve this.
  • Remember that direct progress in peripheral systems is pointless before they reach 85%. Non-peripheral progress is always fine!
  • Two of our Carriers are open for HR 2204 now, for delivery throughout week 74. INIV M. Hadad cargo
  • If Muruidooges offers AX Reactivation for HR 2204, that could help the latter a lot!
  • Two extra non-peripheral targets here should prevent future Spires from attacking later, as shown below.
  • There is a science opportunity in clearing Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-5 at 15.32 Ly with 6724 strength.
    • If fruitful, it would guard Vogulu from attack this week.
    • Even if not, the one-system advance would cancel an extra Alert much later in week 77.

Week 74 targets:

Peripheral systems 100%15%HeldCarrier/OwnerLocationNote
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-4232Done
Muruidooges945Done
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-269394
646
App1eseed
INV. Wrath of Winter
Update
Delivered
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-3693700INV. Wrath of WinterDelivered
Col 285 Sector SH-B b14-4 *701705INV. Wrath of WinterDelivered
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-12 *701705INV. Wrath of WinterDelivered
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-30 *704705INV. Wrath of WinterDelivered
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-7 *725725INV. Wrath of WinterDelivered
Inner systemsStrength
Col 285 Sector US-Z b14-14877 → 40934880LLV Negotiator V1J-L0KCol 285 Sector SX-Z b14-1Delivered | Update
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-457045833[TRGE] TCG Samsun H9V-6XYHIP 28913Delivered | Update
Col 285 Sector PM-B b14-65898 → 18492007INV Astral Flame HNZ-G1FCol 285 Sector PM-B b14-1Delivered
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-36091 → 37774170INV Astral Flame HNZ-G1FCol 285 Sector OR-B b14-1Delivered
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-66102Done
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-263867000[AXI] Invicta X5Q-83NCol 285 Sector PM-B b14-2Delivered
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-567247000[AXI] Invicta X5Q-83NCol 285 Sector JW-M c7-11Delivered | Update
Col 285 Sector RN-T d3-78 **6731 → 47101200Bitcoin Valley H0X-BHKCol 285 Sector RM-B b14-2Delivered? | Update
HR 2204 *14496 → 73194126
3600
INV. Light of Achenar KLZ-54L
INV Astral Flame HNZ-G1F
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3
Col 285 Sector TS-Z b14-3
Delivered
Delivered

Resulting week 75 periphery:

SystemStrength15%
Vogulu ¹4355654
Fotlandjera4844727
Bi Dhorora6188929
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-15 **Spire site
Col 285 Sector RH-B b14-06139921
HIP 31223 **Spire site
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-167331010
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-574381116
Col 285 Sector QM-B b14-075301130
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-137805
Periphery line
HIP 316488158
HIP 3050221281
Attackers planned for week 75
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-14 **9856
Col 285 Sector KW-M c7-4 **10044

* Projected to attack after this week 74.
** Projected to attack after next week 75.

1. If the attack hypothesis misses Vogulu, the periphery will advance one place.
 
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