Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

Based on payloads delivered at Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4 then at Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0, system strengths appear to have increased again, a second time this week:
  • 1061 delivered for Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-4, intended as a completion amount, but moved it from 0.821666 to 0.957793.
    • Assuming no Spire support at all, which is definitely false having observed a few percent per hour, that strength would be 7795.
    • In practice Spire support was present, inferring an even higher strength.
  • 877 delivered for Pegasi Sector RE-N a8-0, from a harvest ended early due to the previous result, causing 0.604091 to 0.713100.
    • Background effects are much lower; again assuming none, that strength would be 8046.
    • Assuming the same effect as the previous hour, that strength becomes 8352.
These are both just beyond 21 Ly, far from the 5 Ly result earlier! @SubitaNeo and Air One ought to be aware that the previous 7677 result may be much, much higher now.

Additional: This really makes everything all about the Spire sites instead!
 
Well. And I just briefly logged in to do some fighting before calling it a day and happened to pick one of those systems (NN-S b4-4). I guess those actions likely happened after the delivery, though, as there was only a singular bar of progress left to be done on it by then.

... but unless this is a leadup to a Thargoid counteroffensive for the remaining two Titans, this does not make much sense, aside from the possibility that Frontier are somehow concerned Raijin is going somewhere too quickly (when you would think the opposite with Powerplay 2 due in a month at most, barring another delay which has not yet been announced). A thing I would also not understand, if it were the case - it's not as if this week's control clearance of some 30+ systems will suddenly render it vulnerable, with well over a hundred controls still remaining to be dealt with.
 
I doubt that there's any particular need to "finish" the Thargoids in time for Powerplay; the Thargoids take up a few mostly-fringe systems while Powerplay is concentrated further into the bubble, so even at the greatest Thargoid extent the overlap was fairly small. On the assumption that Powerplay 2 was supposed to be the delayed early 2013 "key feature overhaul" the original intent must have been to have the two run in parallel.
 
May be. I was (still) just looking at it from the perspective of if they intend to use the last two Titans for a further transition into the reworked Powerplay instead of both also exploding and things just going back to normal (I very much doubt any of the existing Powerplay leaders or groups would just drop their territory without a serious external reason to shake up the status quo, which so far none of the human problems GalNet alleges to seem to really be liable to cause)…

… but if they don’t and just want them around and prepare whatever form they want to keep our angry space flower neighbors around in, well, I guess things could just carry on. But that would be a really anticlimactic end to the Titan arc.
 
… but if they don’t and just want them around and prepare whatever form they want to keep our angry space flower neighbors around in, well, I guess things could just carry on. But that would be a really anticlimactic end to the Titan arc.

I can deal with anticlimactic, just as long as all the aspects of AX stay somewhere. A few Combat zones, a station or two under attack (both in space and on the ground), a single Spire site somewhere...
I've just invested a lot of gamehours acquiring AX materials and blueprints 'n all, equipped a couple of ships, learning the AntiXeno combat - and it would be a major let-down if it all disappear.
 
Happy to report that all Counterstrike Systems should be at roughly 44% via the efforts of Pod Rescuers! If they are not cleared, the systems will have about 11% progress carryover post-Thursday tick. Already we have 10855 saved which if the pods are worth 500 per 1% then it is an additional 21%. I know the strength of samples has been changing so I wonder if pods have been changing as well. Good things to test!

I did a test last night in the System Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3, since DCOH says t here had been 0 kills this week so far and INara said there had been not that many CMDRs there. Using 450 = 1% for pods, I turned in 900 pods when the System was at 42%. I figured it would reach 42%, but instead, it increased to 43.7, meaning pods might be worth ~526 instead of 450.
Here's a chart I made of our progress this week:
Screenshot 2024-08-28 153107.png
 
Happy to report that all Counterstrike Systems should be at roughly 44% via the efforts of Pod Rescuers! If they are not cleared, the systems will have about 11% progress carryover post-Thursday tick.

Indeed that was very many more systems than could be reached with Spire progress—thank you all! My guess is that it could have been close if the peripheral systems were also all Counterstrike systems, but in practice there are several gaps which slows down that process. Definitely Operation Thunderstruck made week 91 surprisingly strong though, possibly scaring Frontier a bit after the weekend.

I am hoping for a stronger overlap between peripheral systems and Counterstrike systems as the total reduces a bit; the best thing it does is to provide so many of the 15% minima needed for strong focus on completion via Spire attacks, which are more favourable both after strength increases and in the hope that the Thargoid Council retreats from more systems to reoccupy the sites.


I know the strength of samples has been changing so I wonder if pods have been changing as well. Good things to test!

The present knowledge is that it will affect Titan rescues—everything non-percentage would be affected, which has meant everything except Spire actions for most of the time it has existed. There was a two-week interval long ago where Titan rescues also gave percentage peripheral progress, but that turned out to be a temporary measure while the Counterstrike notion was being fixed not to include Thargoid Barnacle Matrix systems prematurely.
 
Frankly, had it been up to me, I would instead have raised the strength of the spire systems instead of the individual controls which are much more numerous.

Same effect but maybe a bit less jarring, to those who pay attention. Although it would be a bit more important as well when the Thargoids (apparently) will abandon controls to go for a recapture if required. Maybe, following the conclusion of the upcoming cycle, we will see whether that is still the case or it was the one-off for Thor (which did absolutely nothing for the Titan, making it a rather questionable move from our human perspective).
 
Either is probably just as good as the other in the long run
Cocijo's outer controls are mostly not built-up with Spire contributions yet, so there's a chance to soften it up for later and definitely no wasted contributions.
On the other side, any attacks on Raijin will help speed up the focus on it and wear down its perimeter faster.
 

Week 92, 29th August 3310​

Maelstrom Raijin
Control: Reactivated ports are at HIP 110626, Iduni, HIP 113535, Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71 and Kuruma.
Spire: Remaining are Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-4, Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-4 and Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-2.
Titan: Coordinate with Operation Thunderstruck for Thursday deliveries of rescues from Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-3.

Report
Two Alerts repelled at Koko Oh and Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146.
Six Invasions defended at Ngolite, Jawul, Wanmi, Chibis, Sukurbago and Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5.
Twenty-three Control evictions at Pegasi Sectors OE-N a8-2, GW-V b2-3, NY-O a7-1, UF-L a9-0, BQ-Y d71, OI-S b4-1, OI-S b4-7, NY-O a7-2, OI-S b4-6, GW-W d1-112, PE-N a8-0, LC-U b3-2, VK-L a9-2, PI-S b4-6 and MY-O a7-2, Iduni, HIPs 112219, 116542, 110626, 113535, 112595 and 111081, and Kuruma.
Two Matrix systems cleared at Pegasi Sectors NN-S b4-2 and JH-U b3-4.
In addition to the defended Invasions, five recaptured systems starting Recovery are Iduni, Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71, HIPs 110626 and 113535, and Kuruma.

Targets updated at 06:30 5th September 3310
Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-18 Matrix 90% *91%Cocijo 11 Ly
Col 285 Sector VY-Q c5-23 Control 90% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-18 Control 86% *86.6%Cocijo 30 Ly
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9 Control 84% *84.5%Raijin 20 Ly
Pegasi Sector LC-U b3-3 Control 82% *82.1%Raijin 24 Ly
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4 Control 80% *81.4%Raijin 22 Ly
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8 Control 74% — Raijin 20 Ly
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-5 Control 70% — Raijin 25 Ly
Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-0 Control 70% — Raijin 23 Ly
Gl 886.1 B Control 66% — Raijin 25 Ly
Pegasi Sector TK-L a9-0 Control 64% — Raijin 25 Ly
Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-5 Control 64% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3 Control 62% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3 Control 60% — Raijin 22 Ly
HIP 117229 Control 58% — Raijin 23 Ly
Pegasi Sector FW-W d1-110 Control 58% — Raijin 25 Ly
Pegasi Sector HH-U b3-4 Control 56% — Raijin 25 Ly
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5 Control 56% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76 Control 56% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143 Matrix 52% *52.5%Cocijo 16 Ly
Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1 Control 52% — Raijin 23 Ly
Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152 Control 50% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Pegasi Sector YQ-J a10-0 Control 46% — Raijin 24 Ly
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1 Control 46% — Raijin 23 Ly
Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d93 Control 46% — Raijin 24 Ly
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25 Control 46% — Cocijo 29 Ly
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4 Control 44% — Cocijo 29 Ly
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3 Control 42% — Cocijo 29 Ly
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5 Control 40% *40.6%Raijin 18 Ly
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-4 Matrix 40% — Raijin 18 Ly
Njana Control 30% *30.7%Cocijo 26 Ly
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 Control 20% *21.9%Raijin 18 Ly
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-1 Matrix 16% *16.1%Cocijo 15 Ly
Pegasi Sector JH-V c2-13 Control 14% *15.3%Raijin 18 Ly
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0 Control 12% *13.9%Raijin 19 Ly
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3 Matrix 10% *11.2%Cocijo 17 Ly
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-1 Control 10% — Raijin 13 Ly
Chinas Control 8% *9.2%Raijin 17 Ly, 10.6k strength
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-5 Control 6% *6.6%Raijin 16 Ly
Paitra Control 6% — Cocijo 25 Ly, 10.3k strength
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2 Control 6% — Raijin 24 Ly
Mapon Control 4% *4.2%Cocijo 18 Ly, 11.1k strength
Pegasi Sector DG-X c1-5 Control 4% — Raijin 20 Ly
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2 Control 4% — Raijin 24 Ly
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-1 Control 2% *3.7%Raijin 19 Ly
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-4 Control 2% *2.4%Cocijo 29 Ly
HIP 35633 Control 2% *2.4%Cocijo 27 Ly
Col 285 Sector KM-V d2-72 Control 2% *2.3%Cocijo 28 Ly
Col 285 Sector BA-P c6-10 Control 2% *2.2%Cocijo 28 Ly
Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-17 Control 2% *2.2%Cocijo 27 Ly
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-7 Control 2% *2.2%Cocijo 28 Ly
Kaurukat Control 2% — Raijin 17 Ly, 11.5k strength
Ongkarango Control 2% — Raijin 10 Ly, 12.1k strength
HIP 115162 Control 2% — Raijin 20 Ly
Col 285 Sector DA-E b13-8 Control 2% — Cocijo 27 Ly
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-5 Control 2% — Cocijo 27 Ly
Col 285 Sector BF-E b13-1 Control 2% — Cocijo 28 Ly
Col 285 Sector BP-F b12-1 Control 2% — Cocijo 28 Ly
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-116 Control 2% — Cocijo 28 Ly
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-5 Control 2% — Cocijo 28 Ly

Notes
The Alert report lists predicted attackers.

Week 91, 22nd August 3310​

Report
Three Alerts repelled at Aurus, Bormuninus and Col 285 Sector XT-F b12-2.
Six Invasions defended at Nu Guang, Holvandalla, Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-3, Balak, Wogaiawong and Laumas.
Thirty-nine Control evictions at Pegasi Sectors FW-W d1-104, TK-L a9-3, BQ-Y d101, LY-O a7-0, HW-V b2-6, WK-L a9-1, GW-W d1-115, KC-U b3-0, OE-N a8-1, EB-W b2-7, QE-N a8-3, QZ-M a8-0, KC-U b3-3, QE-N a8-4, PI-S b4-3, YQ-J a10-3, HW-V b2-1, KH-V c2-13, YQ-J a10-2, KH-V c2-7, MY-O a7-3, NY-O a7-5, PE-N a8-4, NY-O a7-3, NN-S b4-4, LY-O a7-3, QE-N a8-2, OI-S b4-8, FB-X c1-22, NY-O a7-0, KH-V c2-20, LY-O a7-5 and RE-N a8-0, Col 285 Sectors XY-F b12-2, YY-F b12-6 and US-H b11-1, HIPs 116052 and 113785, and Tagin.
Three Matrix systems cleared at Pegasi Sectors NN-S b4-9 and NN-S b4-7, and HIP 30439 (abandoned, depleting Maelstrom Hadad).
In addition to the defended Invasions, two recaptured systems starting Recovery are Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115 and Tagin.
 
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Operation Thunderstruck - Week 92 Thursday Update
As of currently, 11,477 pods so far have been turned in to Rescue Megaships. That should be at least 20% for each counter strike system. As always I'll keep people posted on the results! We'll probably have more as the week goes on, so feel free to follow progress in the Spreadsheet. If you deliver pods feel free to let me know so I can more accurately calculate war progress! o7
 
Whoops... seems pod rescues became too powerful! Womp womp. Now they only affect the furthest 15 CS systems, which is a similar thing to Spire sites.
 
Too powerful, or maybe last week was just especially active in terms of cleanup around Raijin. I mean, how many controls had already been cleared by this point of the week, in the last cycle?

We're barely at 7 plus one spire cleared now, and it's basically Sunday in most parts of the world already. I guess if the system strengths remained at the high level from some time past Monday, that hasn't helped, either.
 
I guess if the system strengths remained at the high level from some time past Monday, that hasn't helped, either.

Strengths still appear to be high with amounts around 8000, measured loosely with ongoing background efforts, meanwhile Spire progress seems to have gathered momentum! It is a strange balance, given the earlier attempt to encourage direct progress by means of engineering rewards, and that attacking the Spire only gives rewards for the Spire system.


Whoops... seems pod rescues became too powerful!

Indeed—it is rare that we get an actual confirmation of changes, and definitely it is extremely likely that your previous Titan rescue deliveries caused the unannounced strength increase, which seems to be the quick measure Frontier takes while deciding a formal change. Consider it a notable achievement!
 
meanwhile Spire progress seems to have gathered momentum!
I noticed it. Was rather surprised when I checked system progress on overwatch in the afternoon and found that the second of the remaining three Raijin spires suddenly jumped from... either close to 60 or 70%, to completion, in less than half a day, after going relatively slowly prior.

I personally prefer other actions so I've been more active participating in systems directly, for all that still helps at the moment (I imagine it does even if relatively small or marginal compared to spire activities, for unpopulated controls).
 
Indeed—it is rare that we get an actual confirmation of changes, and definitely it is extremely likely that your previous Titan rescue deliveries caused the unannounced strength increase, which seems to be the quick measure Frontier takes while deciding a formal change. Consider it a notable achievement!
I still think it's wild that I got so many people involved! This weekend, we surpassed the 200,000 total pods rescued!

After the change, I did some tests at both Raijin and Cocijo and here are the results! I had someone turn in 498 Pods to both, it would seem that (as of Friday, Aug 30th) this is the current worth of pods. Since Coccijo has very few people there at the moment I went with those numbers as they were more consistent and had less margin of error:

Unpopulated
Distance >29LY - 230 pods per 1%
Distance between 20 and 29LY - 602 pods per 1%

Populated
For Populated, since Cocijo doesn't have any populated Counterstrikes this week, I did some math. Looking at the strength of systems here, I calculated the ratio of how many samples it takes for Populated versus Unpopulated (Populated Systems need roughly 2.21x more samples). I assume it's the same for pods. Therefore:
Distance >29LY - 510 pods per 1%
Distance between 20 and 29LY - 1335 pods per 1%

All the raw data is in the 'Pod Math' Sheet in the spreadsheet if you want to look for yourself!
 
I still think it's wild that I got so many people involved! This weekend, we surpassed the 200,000 total pods rescued!

If everyone is still holding Bio-storage from T. Raijin for this week, I suggest continuing to hold it for now—the trouble is that we have only half a Spire remaining, so it will be difficult to make full use of Titan rescue progress even with the 15-system limit! The presumed outcome is as with T. Thor, that we get two fresh Spire sites next week if we leave it with none this week, which should be much better for covering 15 Counterstrike systems and any non-Counterstrike gaps in the periphery.

As a wider note for Commanders at Spire sites in general, I think the best approach with half a Spire a Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-4 this week is to deplete it then continue around M. Cocijo. Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-18 is almost toppled, and Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143 is well underway!
 

Week 93, 5th September 3310​

Maelstrom Raijin
Control: Reactivated ports are at Sugalis, HIP 112823, HIP 116351, Alads, Kaurukat, Chnemine, Chinas and Humarala.
Spire: Only Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-4 remains!
Titan: Coordinate with Operation Thunderstruck for Thursday deliveries of rescues from Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-3.

Report
Two Alerts repelled at HIP 117177 and Daisla.
Six Invasions defended at Vistnero, Nibelaako, Ixbaksha, Asletae, Col 285 Sector ZE-P c6-11 and Picenile.
Sixteen Control evictions at Pegasi Sectors TK-L a9-5, FW-W d1-110, TK-L a9-0, HH-U b3-4, LC-U b3-3, DG-X c1-5, YQ-J a10-0 and BQ-Y d93, Gl 886.1 B, Col 285 Sectors VY-Q c5-23 and ZE-P c6-18, Kaurukat, HIP 112823, Hyades Sector FB-N b7-0, Alads and Chinas.
Two Matrix systems cleared at Col 285 Sector XT-Q c5-18 and Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-4.
In addition to the defended Invasions, four recaptured systems starting Recovery are Kaurukat, HIP 112823, Alads and Chinas.

Targets updated at 06:20 12th September 3310
Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-4 Control 96% — Raijin 22 Ly
Col 285 Sector RS-H b11-4 Control 94% — Cocijo 29 Ly
Col 285 Sector VD-G b12-5 Control 86% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Col 285 Sector PM-J b10-3 Control 84% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-5 Control 82% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Pegasi Sector EB-W b2-2 Control 76% — Raijin 24 Ly
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-76 Control 74% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Col 285 Sector PS-T d3-152 Control 72% — Cocijo 30 Ly
Pegasi Sector KC-U b3-2 Control 70% *71.1%Raijin 24 Ly
HIP 117229 Control 68% — Raijin 23 Ly
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-25 Control 66% — Cocijo 29 Ly
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9 Control 64% *64.8%Raijin 20 Ly
Col 285 Sector YY-F b12-3 Control 62% — Cocijo 29 Ly
Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-0 Control 60% *60.9%Raijin 23 Ly
Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-143 Matrix 60% — Cocijo 16 Ly
Sugalis Control 54% *54.2%Raijin 23 Ly
HIP 116351 Control 54% — Raijin 18 Ly
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-8 Control 52% *53.3%Raijin 20 Ly
Pegasi Sector ZQ-J a10-1 Control 52% — Raijin 23 Ly
Pegasi Sector IH-U b3-6 Control 50% — Raijin 10 Ly
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-3 Control 34% — Raijin 22 Ly
Pegasi Sector PE-N a8-2 Control 34% — Raijin 23 Ly
Chnemine Control 30% — Raijin 18 Ly
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-0 Control 30% — Raijin 23 Ly
Humarala Control 26% *27.4%Raijin 18 Ly
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-1 Control 26% — Raijin 23 Ly
Iceniguari Control 26% — Raijin 23 Ly
Pegasi Sector QE-N a8-5 Control 22% — Raijin 23 Ly
Col 285 Sector VN-H b11-1 Matrix 18% *18.4%Cocijo 15 Ly
Pegasi Sector UK-L a9-2 Control 18% — Raijin 23 Ly
Col 285 Sector ZT-F b12-3 Matrix 16% *17.2%Cocijo 17 Ly
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-5 Control 14% *15.1%Raijin 18 Ly
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-5 Control 12% *13.4%Raijin 16 Ly
Njana Control 6% *7.3%Cocijo 26 Ly
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-1 Control 6% *6.8%Raijin 13 Ly
Col 285 Sector TN-H b11-4 Control 6% — Cocijo 29 Ly
Col 285 Sector YT-Q c5-10 Control 6% — Cocijo 29 Ly
HIP 37844 Control 4% *4.2%Cocijo 28 Ly
Pegasi Sector VK-L a9-0 Control 4% — Raijin 19 Ly
19 Puppis Control 4% — Cocijo 27 Ly
Col 285 Sector CA-E b13-1 Control 4% — Cocijo 26 Ly
Pegasi Sector PI-S b4-0 Control 2% *3.5%Raijin 18 Ly
Pegasi Sector NN-S b4-6 Control 2% *3.3%Raijin 13 Ly
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-6 Control 2% *3.2%Raijin 7 Ly
Mapon Control 2% *3%Cocijo 18 Ly
Paitra Control 2% *2.7%Cocijo 25 Ly
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-7 Control 2% *2.1%Raijin 16 Ly
Col 285 Sector YT-F b12-4 Control 2% — Cocijo 24 Ly

Notes
The Alert report lists predicted attackers.

Week 92, 29th August 3310​

Report
Two Alerts repelled at Koko Oh and Col 285 Sector OS-T d3-146.
Six Invasions defended at Ngolite, Jawul, Wanmi, Chibis, Sukurbago and Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5.
Twenty-three Control evictions at Pegasi Sectors OE-N a8-2, GW-V b2-3, NY-O a7-1, UF-L a9-0, BQ-Y d71, OI-S b4-1, OI-S b4-7, NY-O a7-2, OI-S b4-6, GW-W d1-112, PE-N a8-0, LC-U b3-2, VK-L a9-2, PI-S b4-6 and MY-O a7-2, Iduni, HIPs 112219, 116542, 110626, 113535, 112595 and 111081, and Kuruma.
Two Matrix systems cleared at Pegasi Sectors NN-S b4-2 and JH-U b3-4.
In addition to the defended Invasions, five recaptured systems starting Recovery are Iduni, Pegasi Sector BQ-Y d71, HIPs 110626 and 113535, and Kuruma.
 
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